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GFS 经历过的人懂 SIVE
@vas_203 你曾在 $GFS 工作真酷，很高兴听到你对 $SIVE 的看法！
英文原文
@vas_203 Super cool that you worked at $GFS and glad to hear it about $SIVE!
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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SIVE 仍被严重低估
我还是觉得 $SIVE 被严重低估了。 市场好像只是慢慢开始意识到，它可能是 $AMD 的激光供应商？ 顺便说一句，在 $GFS 的演示材料里，唯一两家公开的激光公司就是 $SIVE 和 $LITE……而 AMD 的 CPO 项目最终走的是 GFS。 而且在 Ayar 的网站上，$SIVE 是唯一还留在上面、和 GFS 并列的公司，因为他们悄悄把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从合作伙伴板块删掉了。 AlChip 和 GUC 也正好都是超大规模云厂商供应商里的大角色。 感觉 Sivers 的激光明年会出现在很多地方。
英文原文
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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确认想法
@Sopcaja 对，那是我在想的其中一个。
英文原文
@Sopcaja Yep. That's one of them I was thinking about.
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CPU 热度盖过了存储
现在市场都在盯着 CPU，差点把存储给忘了。 但……SK 海力士、$MU、三星最近都在提高 capex，而且三星最近还开始了 HBM4 生产。 $TSM 也释放了全行业创纪录 capex 的信号。 但就像 $LPK 在玻璃核心基板上的逻辑一样…… HBM 阵营里其实也有不少结构性垄断，是市场可能忘掉了的，尤其是在日本这些地方。 它们大概率会从当前的 HBM4 capex 周期里受益。 韩国那边，像 Hanmi Semi（KRX: 042700）今天都涨了 27.6%+，所以我猜全球其他公司也很快会跟上。
英文原文
Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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AI 增长带来的机会感下降
对 AI 的增长感到有点幻灭。 我开始相信，想逃离永久低层阶级的唯一机会，也许就在未来 5 年内？ 关键在于拥有算力，以及掌控让 AI 和机器人运转起来的基础设施。 很难看到新一代人还有多少机会，除非他们非常专业。 尤其是在物理 AI 和自动化要来替代人类劳动力的时候。 AI 产生的所有价值，最终都会流向股东，而且不需要承担劳动力成本。
英文原文
Disillusioned by the growth of AI. Starting to believe the only chance to escape the permanent underclass is in the next 5 years? By owning compute and control of the infrastructure that makes AI and Robotics work. Hard to see new generations having much opportunities, unless they’re highly specialized. Especially with physical AI and automation coming to replace everyone in the human workforce. All the value derived from AI will go to shareholders, without requiring the cost of labor.
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别追高，去找下一轮卡点
这要看情况，这些都是最近才发生的新闻。 如果你不想在当前媒体周期里追高，最干净的做法就是去预测下一轮，比如 CPO 或先进封装。 像 $AMKR、$ASE 已经涨了不少，但台湾还有一些更微妙的名字，比如 PCL 或 Shunsin，其实还没怎么涨。 还是得看具体名字！
英文原文
It depends, this is all recent news. The most cleanest way if you don't want to FOMO in current media cycles is predicting the next one, in CPO or in advanced packaging. Things like $AMKR, $ASE have rallied quite a bit but there's some nuanced names in TW like PCL or Shunsin that haven't really rallied much. Depends on the name!
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INTC 五万亿美元猜测还太早
@cholevovo 关于 $INTC 的 5 万亿美元数字，我也不确定，但路还很长。 还有一个小错误：第一个数字写错了，应该用“推动”这个词，而不是“推动过”。 https://t.co/CrzGnh4Hw2
英文原文
@cholevovo Yeah idk about that $5T number for $INTC but there's a long way to go Mistyped #1 and should have used the term pushing* instead of pushed. https://t.co/CrzGnh4Hw2
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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推迟是因为要上市纳斯达克
@R42t0r 它被推迟了，因为这说明他们正在积极准备登陆纳斯达克（这是件好事）。
英文原文
@R42t0r It got delayed because it signaled they're actively preparing for NASDAQ listing (which is a positive thing)
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瑞典卖盘后的套利模式
我敢肯定未来还会有更多所谓的打击稿 / 下跌，因为瑞典那边很多人都还是后视镜思维。 这种事发生得太频繁了，以至于中韩社区都发明出了一种套利方法： “早上瑞典人卖出时买入，下午卖给美国人。”
英文原文
I'm sure there's plenty more hit pieces/dips in the future, since many have a backward mindset over there in Sweden. It's happened so often that the Chinese/Korean community came up with an arbitrage method of: "Buy the drop when Swedish people sell in the morning, then sell to Americans in the afternoon"
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看前瞻，而不是看过去
@Qlarividencia 这甚至不只是有没有胆量的问题。更简单地说，是你到底在想未来，还是在想过去。 不过还是得尊重 DNB，因为他们是在看市场的前瞻性变化。
英文原文
@Qlarividencia It's not even having the guts. It's as simple as thinking about the future, not the past. But all the respect to DNB for looking at forward shifts in the market.
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Win Semi 让 SIVE 放量去风险
@Sopcaja 不，因为 $SIVE 的量产爬坡已经被 Win Semi 去风险了，这是我另一个多头。 Win 是 $AVGO 以及现有 SpaceX / 超大规模云厂商供应链的代工厂，所以它非常可靠。
英文原文
@Sopcaja No, because $SIVE volume ramp is de-risked by Win Semi, my other long. Win is the foundry for $AVGO and existing SpaceX/Hyperscaler supply chains, so it's heavily dependable.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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把钱捐给本地收容所
@yuntungshieh 嗯，直接捐给你当地的狗狗收容所和领养慈善机构就好，每只狗大概要 600 美元，就能让它们余生都开心并找到家。
英文原文
@yuntungshieh Uhh just donate to your local dog shelter + adoption charities, it costs ~$600 per dog to make them happy the rest of their lives by finding a home
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不会变，只是很惊讶
@Mikeys_tweets24 别担心！我不会变的。 我只是对最近的爆红感到真的很惊讶。我会尽最大努力帮助更多人。
英文原文
@Mikeys_tweets24 Don’t worry! I won’t change. I’m just genuinely surprised by the recent virality. I’ll do my best to make sure I can help more folks
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两个月前只有 58K
@XtineFang 哈哈！！两个月前我还只有 58K 关注者，在主流媒体叫我 meme trader 之前。 https://t.co/ZEXWqUT6N1
英文原文
@XtineFang Yeah!! I was 58K 2 months ago before all the mainstream media called me a meme trader lol https://t.co/ZEXWqUT6N1
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账号增长快得离谱
我发誓，2 个月前我还只有 5 万粉丝和 0 订阅者。 现在居然莫名其妙有了 23 万。 这账号增长是怎么回事，甚至比我今年到现在的收益还强？ https://t.co/tRxzTt5iOd
英文原文
I swear I had 50,000 followers and 0 subscribers like 2 months ago. And now I randomly have 230K. wtf is this account growth, it’s outperforming my YTD? https://t.co/tRxzTt5iOd
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不是满仓 IREN
@kevinxu 我喜欢你的乐观！我说的是那种把 $IREN 满仓到极致的投资者。 不是那种手里还留着 1000 万美元，然后在分拆出来的组合里做“满仓挑战”的人。
英文原文
@kevinxu I like your optimism! I’m talking about full port full port $IREN investors. Not the have $10M sitting on the side and full port challenge in a spinoff portfolio
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不是满仓 IREN
@finanzasanonima Situational Awareness 不是满仓 $IREN。
英文原文
@finanzasanonima Situational Awareness is not full port $IREN
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IREN 社区编造 Anthropic 交易
@dinxnd_ 投资和因为 $IREN 社区想编造一笔和 Anthropic 的交易而去投资，是有区别的。 然后再拉着别人去买入正在进行的稀释。
英文原文
@dinxnd_ There’s a difference in investing and investing because the $IREN community wanted to make up completely false information about a deal with Anthropic. Then get others to buy into active dilution.
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最没信号的一群人
@DeepValueBagger 对，他们是你在这里能遇到的最没信号、最没 IQ 的一群人。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah they're the lowest signal, lowest IQ group of folks you'll ever meet on here.
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不想搞人身攻击
@babyfolio 不好意思，我不太喜欢像 $IREN 社区那样搞人身攻击。
英文原文
@babyfolio Unfortunately I don't like to go into personal attacks like those in the $IREN community.
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别为假消息辩护
@PrettyNoice 去淡化那些为了让散户买入正在进行的 ATM 而编造超大规模云厂商交易假消息的人？ 目的就是在吸引了数百万浏览量后，让散户冲进去接盘。
英文原文
@PrettyNoice Downplaying folks who make up materially false information about hyperscaler deals? To get retail investors to buy into active ATMs after hitting millions of views?
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IREN 社区编造信息
我说 $IREN 社区成员 IQ 很低，可不是开玩笑。 他们确实在编造信息，好让别人继续买入正在进行的稀释。 这个社区会散布这种胡话去骗新的散户，然后一个月后再来一轮，继续他们那 60 亿美元的 ATM。 提示：Anthropic 和 $IREN 之间根本没有交易。 这简直是在侮辱那些真正做 OSINT / 供应链映射的人。
英文原文
I wasn't joking when I said $IREN community members have low IQ. Since they literally have to fabricate information get people to get others to buy into active dilution. The community shares this sort of BS to convince new retail investors, then does another one a month later for their active $6B ATM. Hint: there's no deal with Anthropic or $IREN. It's an insult to anyone who actually does OSINT/Supply Chain mapping.
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IREN 假交易与拉盘
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN 社区真的编造了一笔和 Anthropic 的假交易，想在晨间公告前把股价拉起来。 然后他们的董事会成员也一直在编造信息，等那只带着 ATM 的股票暴跌后又把内容删掉。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital $IREN community members literally fabricated a false deal with Anthropic to pump stock prices ahead of a Morning announcement. Then their board member fabricates information all the time then deletes it after the stock that has an ATM going on crashes.
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高 conviction 名字不多
@BowTiedClaw 我没有很多高 conviction 的名字，所以这点就很说明问题了。
英文原文
@BowTiedClaw I don’t have many high conviction names, so this is pretty telling
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被 IREN 社区看傻了
@tommyleed8888 我每天都会看到很多蠢评论……但我从没因为看评论把脑子看坏过，直到和 X 上的 $IREN 社区接触之后。
英文原文
@tommyleed8888 I get a lot of dumb comments every day... But I don’t think I’ve ever lost brain cells reading them before until I interacted with the $IREN community on X
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这是冲着 IREN 核心粉去的
@steve2bacon @ParadisLabs @kevinxu 哦，我们很平静。这条更多是针对 $IREN 的狂热社区成员。 不过他用的那个 AI 还真该再调一调。
英文原文
@steve2bacon @ParadisLabs @kevinxu Oh we’re chill. This was more targeted at the $IREN cult community members. The AI he uses could use some fine tuning tho