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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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满仓 IREN 的人很蠢
我非常确信，把 $IREN 满仓或接近满仓的人，是你在这个世界上会遇到的最蠢的人之一。
英文原文
I have high conviction that majority/full port $IREN investors are the dumbest people you’ll meet in this world.
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MXL 的时点很准
@Sopcaja 哈哈，还是不敢相信 $MXL 第二天就涨了 70%，我的时点真的挺离谱。
英文原文
@Sopcaja lol still can’t believe $MXL shot up 70% a day later, my timing is pretty uncanny
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AEHR 还很早，近端已计价
@workoutwithp 从长期看 $AEHR 还非常早。他们才刚在一个客户身上开始量产爬坡…… 而其他客户（比如他们那个一线光收发器客户）会在未来几年陆续补上。 以当前估值来看，我会说近端已经计价得比较充分了。
英文原文
@workoutwithp $AEHR long term is very early. The only started volume ramp with one customer… And others will pick up (like their t1 optical transceiver one) over the next few years. For current valuations, I’d say it’s more priced in near term.
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ASX 加速 CPO
@Quantrarian52 对！我也看好 $ASX？而且他们的报告已经把 CPO 加速判断推到 2026 年下半年。
英文原文
@Quantrarian52 I’m a fan of $ASX? And converted their reports over accelerating CPO to H2 2026.
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日文吐槽市场不懂
@beauty_oe 村上巴里曾经在 $PLTR 上画过一个洗发水“头肩形”图，还把 AI 国防承包商的估值拿去跟给中小企业做营销的 Hubspot 比较。 你越跟 X 上有影响力的人交流，就越会意识到他们其实什么都不懂。
英文原文
@beauty_oe マイケル・バーリは、$PLTR にシャンプーの「ヘッド＆ショルダー」チャートを描き、AI国防請負業者のバリュエーションを中小企業向けマーケティングのHubspotと比較した。 Xで影響力のある人たちと絡めば絡むほど、彼らがいかに何も分かっていないかを思い知らされる。
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光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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Shunsin 会在未来一年跑赢
@GeorgeMakro91 对！我短期时间框架上也会判断失误。 我 4 月 12 日提到 Shunsin，也就是 13 天前，当时把它看作富士康的 CPO 光学 / 测试业务。我对那笔也判断错了（sadge），但我预计它未来一年会跑赢。
英文原文
@GeorgeMakro91 Yep! I get definitely get things wrong on short term timeframes too. I mentioned Shunsin April 12th, so 13 days ago as Foxconn's CPO optical/testing arm. I'm down too on that (sadge), but I expect it to outperform over the next year.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).
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信息是正和游戏
@Plaskpojken 其实是你一直在提醒我多看看 Sivers！ 所以我也不太明白为什么外面还有另一个人，靠告诉所有人“是他们先跟我提了 Sivers”来拿自己那 1 万多粉丝。 这种假说法很多，不过不管怎样，信息本身是正和的！
英文原文
@Plaskpojken was actually the one who kept telling me to look into Sivers more! So not quite sure why there’s another person out there that got their entire 10k+ follower base by telling everyone they told me about Sivers… Bunch of false claims out there but regardless, information is positive sum!
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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LWLG 式研发合作加稀释
这相当负面。是大新闻，但本质上是那种没有营收的研发合作，和 $LWLG、$TSEM 那类差不多。 他们还有一个巨额稀释投票，3 周左右会把 4500 万股增到 9500 万股，我对这种大幅稀释周期非常反感。 不过我预计大家最后还是会因为 FOMO / 新闻去买。
英文原文
Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles. But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.
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被市场看空反而是机会
你会看到媒体、银行、分析师去做空 $RKLB，因为大家都觉得他们不可能和 SpaceX 竞争。 后来媒体又去做空 $AMD，因为大家觉得他们不可能和 $INTC（现在是 $NVDA）竞争。 但他们当时确实就是那个领域里的领导者，Rocket Lab 小型可重复使用火箭的成功就是证明。 只是很难一开始看出来，因为情绪总是先站在这些小公司对面，直到它们被“验证”之后才转向。 等它们被验证的时候，你已经错过全部上行了。
英文原文
You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX. Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA). They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets. But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated". By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.
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提过很多美国名字
@coreyagonzalez 我最近提过我喜欢的 30 只美国名字。很多 thesis 帖都在聊日本或台湾名字，但我也经常聊美国股票，比如 $AMSC、最近的 $ARM，或者像 $NBIS 和 $RDDT 这类。
英文原文
@coreyagonzalez I mentioned 30 US names that I liked recently. A lot of my thesis posts talk about Japanese or Taiwanese names, but I talk about US stocks a lot like $AMSC, $ARM recently or stuff like $NBIS and $RDDT?
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SIVE 让我想起早年的 AMD
@H0M3b 我看 $AMD 的时候，它十年前还在 3.5 美元附近，但大家都说他们打不过 $INTC。 还总说英特尔随时都能把他们干掉。 我对 $SIVE 和 $LITE 也有点类似的感觉？不过走着看吧。
英文原文
@H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC. And that Intel could just beat them anytime. Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see.
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别被干扰项带偏
@TheBullLens 我确实经常看到这种事。反正我也没法改变它，所以我就不让它干扰我做的研究。
英文原文
@TheBullLens I do see it happens a lot. Nothing I can do about it, so I just don't let it distract from the research I do.
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从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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博主吃披萨时联想到股票，日常闲聊。
@justfisch2 我喜欢市中心的Slivers披萨，因为它现在让我想起$SIVE。
英文原文
@justfisch2 I liked Slivers pizza downtown because it reminds me of $SIVE now.
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把 X 分成收入捐出去
感谢 X 的收入分成项目！ 我最后其实都会把这笔钱转给我喜欢的本地慈善机构，只是平时不太分享。 我尤其喜欢本地宠物收容所，因为我家的狗去年去世了，到现在还没完全走出来。 还有无家可归者相关项目，因为我在加州大学伯克利分校时确实交了很多无家可归的朋友。 到某个阶段，你其实不需要更多钱了。 但它确实能放大你能带来的正面影响，这也是我还在 X 上的原因（而不是退休，我其实可以退）。 真实地活着，对自己诚实，看看你在离开这个世界前还能带来多少正向改变，这种感觉很满足。 我在 X 上的目标一直都是：尽可能帮助散户投资者…… 而不是传统模式下把每一份 alpha 先卖给机构。 行动胜于语言，所以订阅费只要 1 美元，而且我把所有想法 / 思路都免费发给这里所有人（尽管我本可以收 50 美元）。 这样等我离开这天，大家也能自己做出我做的事情！ 接下来我还在想，能不能让散户拥有和 Citadel 以及其他对冲基金一模一样的优势？ 所以我本来打算免费发布定制 LLM（你知道我以前是研究科学家），再用额外的订阅收入去补贴算力 / 数据成本。 我觉得会很好玩！
英文原文
Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!
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SOI 估值还没到 40B
@TLEROY5 我不认为 $SOI 会变成 400 亿美元公司，也许一年后会到 80 亿到 120 亿美元。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 I don't see $SOI becoming a $40B company, maybe $~8B-12B in a year.
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IQE 已经大涨很多
@miss_middletonn 自从我发帖之后，$IQE 已经涨了大约 260%。路上肯定会有波动，但还没到特别严重的程度。
英文原文
@miss_middletonn $IQE is up like ~260% since I posted. There's going to be volatility along the way, but nothing too material.
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SOI 目前还只涨了 160%
@TLEROY5 $SOI 到现在也就涨了大约 160%。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 $SOI is only up like 160% so far.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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想知道对方买了什么仓位
@hamza_hsn 哦不错！你最后买了什么仓位？
英文原文
@hamza_hsn Oh nice! What positions did you end up taking
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上游卡点还没被完全梳理
这是真的。我不认为美国已经把所有上游卡点都完全梳理出来了。 这也是为什么中国还能逐步拿到那些美国超大规模云厂商所需的不同垄断，并且在过程中慢慢拿走 IP。 散户持股其实是防止敌意收购和外部对手控制的好办法。
英文原文
It’s true. I don’t think US completely mapped out all the upstream chokepoints yet. Which is why China was still able to acquire different monopolies required by US hyperscalers and steal IP over time. Retail ownership is a great way to prevent hostile takeovers and control from foreign adversaries.
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指出AMSC和PLPC虽为行政令受益股，但涨幅有限，不可能单日暴涨48%。
@Yolo365247isme 我确实也把$AMSC和$PLPC列为行政令受益股，但 conviction 没有那么高。 我的意思是 AMSC 今天涨了 8.58%，PLPC 涨了 6.37%，它们不可能一天就涨 48%。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I do have $AMSC and $PLPC as the executive order beneficiaries as well but not as high conviction. I mean AMSC is up 8.58% and PLPC is up 6.37% today, they don’t just go up 48% in a day.
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变压器/开关设备短缺会持续
@nodeflowsol 变压器 / 开关设备的瓶颈大概会持续 1.5 到 5 年……而且几天前它们刚被认定为国家安全风险，随后总统也援引了《国防生产法》。 这些公司会因为联邦资金获得创纪录的 capex 流入和产能扩张。
英文原文
@nodeflowsol Transformer/switchgear bottlenecks are like 1.5-5 years… and it was designated as a national security risk few days ago + got the defense production act invoked by the President. Lot of these players will get record inflows for capex + capacity growth from federal funding.
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SIVE 破千就稳了
@01100101j 等 $SIVE 涨到 1000% 再说吧。
英文原文
@01100101j When $SIVE hits 1000% sure.
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HPS.A 已经很强
如果你听了 Optimus Prime…… 那你现在持有 $HPS.A 三周就已经涨了 47%。 你听了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
英文原文
If you listened to Optimus Prime… You’d be up 47% in just 3 weeks with $HPS.A. Did you listen to Optimus anon? https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
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AXTI 又回来了
@offermemoneyXYZ 对，我之前在 $AXTI 上也有点回撤，不过很高兴它又回到 1057% 的收益了…… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Yeah, I was down a bit on $AXTI but glad it’s back at 1057% gains… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW