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认为 SOI 的基板逻辑不会因为短期宏观下跌而改变。
@setthundred 整个市场都因为宏观在跌，包括 $SOI。不幸的是，除非你叫 $TSEM，不然没有哪个名字能天天收绿。 SOI 的基板逻辑不会因为短期宏观回落而改变。
英文原文
@setthundred Whole market is down from macro, including $SOI. Unfortunately if your name isn’t $TSEM, names don’t go green every day. SOI substrate thesis doesn’t change based on short term macro drops
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看好 SIVE 的非对称性，并比较其轻资产模式与 IQE 的债务压力。
我个人并不觉得它长期有太多下行风险，除了稀释之外。因为 $SIVE 是很多客户（比如 $POET、$JBL、Ayar、O-Net 等）的关键材料来源，而不是只押单一客户。 而且和 $IQE 相比，他们通过 Win Semi 这条链条更偏无晶圆厂模式，所以资本开支更轻。 反过来，$IQE 有很多债务，但也有大量资产，想要被市场强力重估，需要先重组。 这两边的风险画像完全不同，$SIVE 明显更有非对称性。 $IQE 也许有可能因为台湾出售成功而在一天内涨 2.5 倍，长期也可能像 Landmark 那样，如果他们变得更纯粹地做 InP 外延片，股价会更好看。当然，债务悬在头顶也是事实。 但我不会把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，我更喜欢押多匹有机会赢的马。
英文原文
I personally don’t see much downside risk in the long run aside from dilution since $SIVE is the light for many customers like $POET, $JBL, Ayar, O-Net, and others rather than one. And compared to $IQE they’re fabless through win semi so capex is more lightweight. $IQE on the other hand has a lot of debt, but a huge amount of assets, and requires restructuring to be strongly rerated. Risk profiles are extremely different, $SIVE definitely more assymetrical. $IQE can possibly 2.5x in a day based on a successful Taiwan sale, and over the long run like Landmark if they become more pure play inp epiwafer. But of course lot of debt overhang But I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and like to pick multiple horses that can win the race
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认为 AAOI 在 100 美元附近受 ATM 发行压制，但长期营收潜力下依然被低估。
@Jornka329996 这说得通，因为它现在还在以 100 美元做 ATM 融资。 我一直说，$AAOI 短期的天花板就在这里，因为他们正按这个价格卖出 2.5 亿美元的股票。 但等这轮结束后，我个人觉得它按长期营收潜力看还是严重低估。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 It makes sense, since there is an ongoing ATM at $100. I've been saying this is the ceiling for short term $AAOI since they're selling $250m worth of shares at that price. But once that finishes, I personally it's very undervalued given long term revenue potential.
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把 AIXA 比作光子领域的 ASML，承认其受益于资本开支周期，但自己并未持仓。
$AIXA 就像光子领域里的 $ASML，吃到了今年一轮大型资本开支周期。 即便如此，我个人也没有持仓，因为我不太喜欢半导体供应链里的设备卖家。 它们确实能明显受益，但大多数最大的受益者其实是那些可能借瓶颈抬价的公司，比如 $SNDK。 而在当前周期里，更像是 $LITE 这种 EML，或者像 $AXTI 这样的基板材料受益者。哪怕现在价格还没怎么上调。
英文原文
$AIXA is like the $ASML for photonics and captures a large capex cycle this year. Even so, I personally don't have positions, since I'm not a fan of equipment sellers in semi supply chains. That benefit materially, but most of the largest beneficiaries are the likely bottleneck price-hikers of the world as seen with $SNDK. And in current cycles that's EML like $LITE or substrates like $AXTI. Even though there haven't been much price hikes yet.
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解释 AAOI 的 ATM 发行节奏，以及股价通常在 100 美元附近受压的原因。
他们已经完成了那轮 2.5 亿美元的 ATM，而 $AAOI 最近又启动了另一轮 2.5 亿美元融资。 通常它在碰到 ATM 发行时会从 100 美元附近回落，今天就是这样。 上次他们做完后，股价一度涨到约 125 美元，然后又开始新的发行。 所以如果你看到它直接冲破 100 美元而且不再回落，那大概就说明 5 亿美元的 ATM 已经完成了。不过正式确认还得看文件或者财报。
英文原文
They finished their $250m ATM, and $AAOI launched another $250M recently. Typically it bounces off $100 whenever they tap into their ATM as seen with today. Last time they finished, it rallied to ~$125 before they offered another one. So if you see it blowing past $100+ and not dropping again, that's probably the sign they finished the $500m ATM. But you'll get formal confirmation of it either with filings or earnings.
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回应 AXTI 财报后大跌，提醒大家要自己做尽调，不要只看价格波动。
我猜也是这样。我之所以发这种内容，是因为 $AXTI 财报后一下跌了 30%，跌到 17 美元。 有时候，有些东西对我来说很明显，但我也能理解别人看到大跌时会害怕。 我可能花了更多时间去做尽调，也更早建立了自己对 $SIVE 的信念。但我一直鼓励大家，在自己下单前先建立自己的判断。 不然，人很容易只盯着价格波动，而忽略了基本面的变化。
英文原文
I guess that's true. I had to post something like this after $AXTI dropped 30% to $17 after their earnings report. Sometimes, things feel obvious to me, but I can see why others see a large drop but might be fearful. I probably had a lot more time to do DD and build my own conviction on $SIVE. But I always encourage people to build their own before entering any trade themselves. Otherwise, they might react to prices over fundamental shifts.
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反对“已经计价”的说法，强调 SIVE 已获 Jabil 与 O-Net 供应链确认，仍可能被机构低位吸筹。
是的。我非常不同意那些分析师帖子里说“已经计价了”，还叫散户在 2.5 亿美元市值时获利了结的说法。 -> 在 $SIVE 被 $JBL 证实会用于他们即将推出的收发器之后。 -> 在 $SIVE 已经进入 O-Net 供应链之后。 然后在如今最大的一级光学供应商之一已经确认是 Sivers 买家的情况下，还说这是“情绪驱动”？ 再强调一次，目前这只股票大部分仍由散户持有，所以我个人认为机构是在试图从散户手里吸筹。
英文原文
Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. -> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. -> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer. Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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回忆自己很早就买过 HOOD。
@ptyagi79 @pepemoonboy 我好像 18 美元左右就买过 $HOOD？
英文原文
@ptyagi79 @pepemoonboy I bought $HOOD at like $18?
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说自己的 UPWK 逻辑在 Reddit 上花了很久才兑现，并认为短期价格波动常被人拿来挑错。
谢谢！是啊，我的 $UPWK 逻辑大概是在 Reddit 上花最久时间才兑现的，哈哈。不过我觉得这些帖子从方向上通常还是对的，只是时间上不一定精确（我记得我 Reddit 的 PT 帖大概 11 个里对了 8 个左右吧，不是每次都准）。 很多人喜欢抓短期价格来挑错（比如今天 $SIVE 的下跌，或者 $NBIS 在可转债消息后的下跌）。但我觉得，我大多数 thesis 帖从长期来看还是正向兑现的。
英文原文
Thanks! Yeah my $UPWK thesis probably took the longest time to play out on Reddit haha, but I think they're usually right directionally over time (I remember being ~8 for 11 or something from my Reddit PT posts, don't always get them right). People like to cherry pick short term prices (eg. $SIVE drop today or $NBIS drop post convertible note) to say I'm wrong. But, think most of my thesis posts play out positively over the long run.
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强调关键的是产能占比而不是供应商数量，因为上游材料仍来自中国。
@be25458 关键看的是你生产的产能占比，而不是供应商数量。 当制造 InP 基板所需的上游材料都来自中国时，供应商数量根本不重要。 我说的就是为什么 $AXTI / Vital 是一类瓶颈，而 Sumitomo / $AXTI 又是另一类瓶颈。
英文原文
@be25458 What matters is % of capacity you produce, not # of suppliers. The # of suppliers don't matter when the upstream materials come needed to make InP substrates come from China. That's what I mean when there's two different bottlenecks with $AXTI / Vital, then Sumitomo / $AXTI.
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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承认出口管制风险，但强调若中国限制出口，西方超大规模云 AI 建设也会被拖慢。
@TheMathMan70 我一直都承认出口管制风险。但我说的是，如果 $AXTI 下跌 + 中国全面实施出口管制，那么西方超大规模云厂商的 AI 建设也会一起受阻（包括 $LITE 和其他公司）。
英文原文
@TheMathMan70 I’ve always acknowledged the export control risk. But what I’ve said is if $AXTI goes down + China goes full on export control, the Western hyperscaler AI buildout stalls as well (including $LITE and the others)
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解释 AXTI 的两层瓶颈：上游原料/精炼与 InP 基板生产。
@AlphaAllegro 这里其实有两个不同的瓶颈。一个是 $AXTI 控制的原料 / 精炼环节。 另一个是 InP 基板生产…… 如果你拿不到材料，就做不出晶圆。所以这也是为什么 AXT 本身天然就极其有价值。
英文原文
@AlphaAllegro There’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refineries that $AXTI controls. And then is InP substrate production… If you can’t get the materials, you can’t make the wafers. Which is why AXT is inherently super valuable
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说自己故意把内容写得很简单，方便散户理解半导体术语。
@stfbutnou @SemiAnalysis_ @FundaAI 嗯，没错，SemiAnalysis 的研究确实更强，但谢谢你突然这样怼我 lol。 不过顺便说明一下：我故意把内容写得很简单，就是为了让散户更容易看懂半导体术语。
英文原文
@stfbutnou @SemiAnalysis_ @FundaAI Well no sht semianalysis does better research but thanks for randomly putting me down lol. But just an FYI, I publish stuff extremely simple on purpose so retail investors can understand semi jargon better.
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引用 LITE 电话会，认为管理层等于承认 InP 基板是光子瓶颈，AXTI 因而拥有定价权。
$LITE 财报电话会原文： “最让我夜里睡不着的事情是：基板。相比之下，反而没那么担心反应器和把合适的工具装进 fab，虽然这也不是完全没挑战。” 他们基本上是在直接说 $AXTI 是光子领域的瓶颈。 尤其如果 InP 基板会让 $LITE 的 CEO 睡不着觉的话。 我过去几个月一直在提这点：如果 AXT 控制基板供应，它就对 $LITE、$COHR 以及美国 AI 建设拥有很大的定价权。 我在 X 上看到了很多误读，说什么“和住友签了七年协议”。但他们说的明明是现在就已经有供应紧张。而且那份协议也不代表 7 年内供应就一定够，尤其当中国开始对日本供应链制造晶圆所需的上游原料 / 材料实施出口管制时更是如此。 这甚至还没算上光子产业真正开始放量。 我关于 $AXTI 瓶颈的论点正在实时兑现，而 $LITE 又给了我们新的确认：InP 基板就是瓶颈。
英文原文
$LITE Transcript from Conference Call: "The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates. Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge." They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics. Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night. I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout. I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then. This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up. My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.
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看好 IQE 若转向 InP epiwafers 仍有产能潜力，但债务和重组是主要压制。
@BobbaPaddop 只看潜在产能的话，我其实挺喜欢 $IQE，如果他们把业务重构到 InP epiwafers 方向的话…… 现在其实也没什么别的进展，就只是等重组公告，因为债务才是主要压制因素（而且如果台湾资产出售能落地，也会缓解这个问题）。
英文原文
@BobbaPaddop I really like $IQE just given latent capacity if they refactor toward InP epiwafers... There's not really much going on, just waiting for any restructuring announcements, since that's debt is the main overhang (and Taiwan asset sales would clear it)
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愿意在 7B 市值附近买 AAOI，但当前 AXT 估值偏高，暂时不加仓。
如果 $AAOI 的市值在大约 70 亿美元，我会考虑买入。 $AXTI 现在 32 亿美元的估值就有点偏高了，因为 SMM 上并没有出现 7N 铟的重大非标上涨。我还在拿着现有仓位，但出于时机考虑，可能不会继续加仓。 长期看其实影响也没那么大。
英文原文
I'd be a buyer at $AAOI here at a ~$7B MC. $AXTI $3.2B is a tad more elevated now, given there wasn't any major spike of 7N indium nonstandard on SMM. I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes. In the long run, doesn't really matter much.
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表示不熟悉 M7U，但会研究一下，并说明自己通常不太喜欢 ASML 型设备卖家。
@Iamgerman__ 我以前没听说过 $M7U，不过我之后会去看看。通常我不太喜欢像 $ASML 这类的设备卖家，比如 $AIXA，但我喜欢你的思路！
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@Iamgerman__ I've never heard about $M7U before, but I'll take a look at it later. Typically not as much of a fan of $ASML type equipment sellers like $AIXA, but I like your thought process!
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说这些内容只是出于好玩分享，觉得把不同主题结合起来会很强。
@Ayouubb_ 我发这些纯粹是为了好玩，免得大家觉得我这些想法 / 回报没意思。 之前还出现过 AI Displacement ETF，后来又有了 AI bottleneck ETF！ 感觉把这三个东西组合起来会非常强。
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@Ayouubb_ I just drop these for fun in case people find any ideas/returns interesting. There was also the AI Displacement ETF not too long ago and then the AI bottleneck ETF! Feels like combining the three together would be pretty OP.
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认为不要只盯价格波动，$AXT 和 $SIVE 的长期价值仍可能非常高。
什么都没有？如果有人愿意在限价买单很少的情况下，把给 $JBL、Ayar、$MRVL Celestial 等客户供光源的公司按 2.5 亿美元市值去市价砸盘或者止损，他们当然可以这么做。 我第一次发 $AXT 时，它从 15 美元跌了 20% 到 12 美元，现在已经大概 60 美元了。 最好的办法是看市值，而不是看中途的百分比波动，因为沿途一定会有很多波动。 $SIVE 可能是我现在最喜欢的光子板块机会之一，我个人觉得如果大家 6 个月后回头看，现在的估值一定会让人拍桌子。
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Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too. $AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60. Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way. $SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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表示自己只是为了好玩做加权组合，让大家可以直接按板块投资，省去部分 ETF 费用。
我只是为了好玩才这么做，万一大家只是想直接用这些权重去投资整个板块呢！ 这样也能避开现在不少 ETF 的管理费（而且理论上应该会跑赢）。 很多基金其实没覆盖这些名字里很大一部分，因为不少资管经理会忽略上游那些细微但关键的瓶颈！不过我也没打算正式推出一个官方产品 lol
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Je fais juste ça pour le plaisir au cas où les gens voudraient simplement utiliser ces pondérations et investir dans le secteur dans son ensemble ! Ça permet d'éviter les frais de gestion de pas mal d'ETF actuels (et ça devrait surperformer). Beaucoup d'entre eux n'incluent pas une grande partie de ces titres, car beaucoup de gestionnaires d'actifs passent à côté des goulots d'étranglement subtils en amont ! Mais je ne prévois pas d'en lancer des officiels lol
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
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The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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认为 DELL 是 AI 基建的重要受益者，年内涨幅已经不错。
@ScroogeCap 对，$DELL 是一个大受益者！他们的股价年初至今已经涨了 22%。
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@ScroogeCap Yep, $DELL is a large beneficiary! Their stock price is already up 22% YTD.
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认为 Hindenburg 的报告被做空做坏了，也可能促成了今天对 SMCI 相关人士的指控。
@BreakoutPoint 对，那份报告就是被 Hindenburg 做坏了，而这很可能也导致了今天针对 $SMCI 相关个人的指控。
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@BreakoutPoint Yep Hidenburg cooked on that report and that likely led to the charges of individuals from $SMCI today.
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认为市场上围绕 SMCI 的噪音很多，但当前更重要的是估值和公司本身的美国属性。
@StrategicParry 同意，外面显然还有更好的机会。 我只是看到很多关于 $SMCI 的新闻，但没人把自己到底是什么立场说清楚。 不过话说回来，$SMCI 实际上是一家美国公司，只是和台湾有很深的渊源，并不是中国公司。
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@StrategicParry Agreed, there's clearly better opportunities out there. I'm just seeing a lot of news around $SMCI, but nobody stating any clear positions they have. That being said $SMCI is actual an American company with deep roots to Taiwan, not a Chinese one.
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认为若 SMCI 继续下跌，基本面可能会压过监管压力，且很多风险早已被市场消化。
我个人的看法是，如果 $SMCI 继续跌下去，基本面很可能会压过监管层面的压力。 很大一部分风险其实在 2024 年就已经差不多被知道了，并随着时间被逐步计价。今天只是对这些内容以及其规模的确认。 不过话说回来，显然还有更好的机会。
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This is just my personal view that if $SMCI drops further than here, fundamentals probably outweigh regulatory overhang. Large part of it was already kinda known from 2024, and priced in over time. Today was just confirmation of it, along with the scale. That being said, there's clearly better opportunities out there.
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$SMCI监管风险或致买入机会，剥离噪音后估值约10-11倍PE。
所有人都在关注$SMCI向中国走私价值数十亿美元AI芯片的事。 但没有人回答这个问题： 我如何从中赚钱，这是否是买入机会？ 我的答案是： 如果$SMCI跌破约$24很多，甚至更低。在约$140亿市值时就像是买入机会。 所有人看美国司法部(DOJ)的案子都觉得超微电脑完蛋了。 但有两点： 1. 到目前为止公司本身似乎被隔离了（未被列为被告） 2. $SMCI向中国国有机构销售芯片早已是公开的（只是程度没达到$25亿以上），通过2024年浑水做空报告(Hindenburg short seller reports)。 所以中国收入的这部分有相当一部分已经被定价了，这就是为什么$SMCI从$100以上暴跌到现在交易价$24。 现在如果我们剥离表象和一些实质收入： -> $SMCI GAAP净收入去年为$10.5亿，2026财年估计约为$12.5亿，部分估计高达$15亿。 然后我们剔除约$1.5亿走私利润从财务报表中：$10.5亿 -> ~$9亿？ 按市盈率(P/E)计算，作为成长型公司仍然相对便宜，大约10-11倍？ 现在看跌的风险： -> 舆论形象仍然很糟糕。你可以往垃圾堆里再加垃圾。 但反正还是垃圾，没什么大变化？ -> $NVDA疏远$SMCI？（他们2024年已经这么做了）。 -> $SMCI未被列为被告，但如果美国证券交易委员会(SEC)/美国司法部(DOJ)起诉他们，那么会有大量监管费用和可能的罚款。 -> 也许会有订单取消，但如果2024年面临问题时他们没有取消订单，现在应该也没问题？ 现在...有没有比承担这个监管风险更好的机会？ 100%有。 恐慌时会有更多下行空间吗？ 是的。 但如果剥离噪音，$SMCI作为一家公司在约$140亿市值、按10-11倍远期盈利计算看起来很便宜。
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Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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说 AEHR 是自己最喜欢的多头标的之一。
@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR 是我最喜欢的多头标的之一。不幸的是，对方只让我选五只。
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@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR is one of my favorite longs. Unfortunately the question asked me to pick 5 only
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建议把仓位投向即将到来的硅光 / CPO 方向，并在高信念和分散之间做平衡。
@moderndayvenom 我会把资金投向硅光 / CPO，因为我们知道这会从 OFC 和 $NVDA GTC 继续推进。 像 $TSEM、$SIVE、$SOI 这种名字，是我最喜欢、信念最高的三个。 然后我会稍微分散一点，今天价格下的 $RDDT 也可以作为多头，另外当前收发器周期里的 $AAOI 也不错。
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@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC. Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones. Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.