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分析光学组件为AI集群关键瓶颈，Sivers垂直整合价值凸显
因为我预期一些公司，尤其是光子学个股会显著跑赢大盘。Sivers还拥有关键的激光技术，$MRVL和其他公司会想要收购来实现垂直整合……如果股价进一步下跌，任何人都可以用零钱收购整家公司。当我说伊朗扰乱全球流动性和能源时，这并不意味着在最坏情况下$NVDA会跌到零。也许一些超级计算用户会保守地削减资本支出，一些数据中心建设会放缓。但如果光学组件是扩展AI集群的必要部件，那么它们已经售罄，而且在BOM中占比很小因为它们很便宜。削减支出根本无法改变这个瓶颈。
英文原文
Bc I expect some companies, especially individual photonics names strongly outperform. Sivers also hold the critical laser tech that $MRVL and others would want to buy for vertical integration… and if it dropped any further, someone can just acquire the entire company for spare change. When I say Iran disrupting global liquidity/energy, that doesn’t mean $NVDA drops to 0 in a worse case scenario. Maybe some hyperscalers cut back on capex spend to be conservative, some DC buildout stalls. If optical components are necessary to scale AI clusters. Then they’re sold out and such a little part of BOM since they’re cheap. Cutting back on spend won’t change that bottleneck at all
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说伊朗在试图摧毁整个能源贸易，给全球经济最大痛感。
@Mastacash 通常是这样……但这次伊朗想摧毁整个能源贸易，把周围的一切都炸掉。 一般来说破坏会更局部一些，但伊朗的套路就是要让全球经济承受最大痛苦。
英文原文
@Mastacash Well typically yes… but in this case Iran is trying to destroy the entire energy trade and blow up everything around it. Usually destruction is more contained but Iran’s playbook is maximum pain to the global economy
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开玩笑说可以把自己做的末日 ETF 当成对 NVDA 和 LCID 的对冲。
也许是时候开始看看我做的那个末日 ETF 了，把它当作对 $NVDA 和 $LCID 的对冲？ 最新消息：“五角大楼正准备在伊朗开展数周地面行动” 现在还没最终确认……但看起来已经越来越像真的了。 https://t.co/Jse9HERHyj
英文原文
Maybe it’s time to start looking into the Doomsday ETF I made, as a hedge with $NVDA and $LCID? Just in: “The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran” It’s not confirmed yet… but seems likely now. https://t.co/Jse9HERHyj
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认为用有限 TAM 思路来理解 SIVE 这种瓶颈点是错的，应该看扩张/博弈。
很高兴这有帮助。 我说 $SIVE 让我想起 $LITE，大概就是我脑子里在想的这些东西。 我也看到有人试图把像 $AXTI 这种东西建模成有限或稳定复利型 TAM，而不是把它看成扩张或瓶颈博弈——但那是看错了这些细分供应链卡点的方式。
英文原文
Glad it’s helpful. When I say $SIVE reminds me of $LITE, this is kinda what I’m thinking about in the back of my mind. I also saw people try to model finite or steady compounding TAM (like $AXTI) rather than expansion or bottleneck game theory, which is the wrong approach for these niche supply chain chokepoints
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认为 LITE 已经用过类似打法，管理层路线大体正确，只是时点早了。
我们刚刚看到 $LITE 用同样的打法跑出了 3600% 以上的涨幅…… 你不需要重新发明轮子。 我其实认为管理层是有能力的，他们已经在手头资源条件下走对了路（比如非稀释性补助、Win 的半无晶圆厂模式等等）。 之后他们在 2024 年 2 月到 2025 年尝试做光子业务分拆，但没成功，因为那时候还没到光子学超级周期。 但我认为最近这波关注，可能已经帮助他们摆脱了瑞典小盘股的死亡谷，而且现在有不少对冲基金在研究他们。 所以我觉得，这和一开始投资 $LITE 的思路是相通的。
英文原文
We’ve just seen $LITE pull off this exact same playbook and go up 3600%+... You don’t need to reinvent the wheel. I actually think management is competent and they’ve gone down the right path with the resources they had (eg. Nondilutive grants, Win semi fabless, etc.) Then they attempted photonics spinoff in 2024-Feb 2025, but didn’t work because that was before photonics had a super cycle. But I think the recent attention may have helped them escape the valley of doom in small cap Sweden, lot of hedge funds are researching them now. So I think it’s with the shot of investing in $LITE at the start.
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提出让 SIVE 沿光子链条扩张 TAM、借资本注入和拆分推进 ELS 模块规模化。
难道 $SIVE 就不能学 $LITE 那样，把 TAM 往 ELS 整个堆栈一路往下扩吗？ 我已经开始想起早期的 $LITE 了（Oclaro、NeoPhotonics、Cloud Light）…… 下面是我的论点/设想： Sivers 如何把大约 300-400 美元的 ELS（来自 50-100 美元的阵列）吃下来，并成长为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 路径大概是： -> Sivers 需要融资。 -> 拿 NRE 预付款或者 PIPE（比如 $AXTI/Northland） -> 直接告诉市场：“$AVGO 和 $LITE 会把你们定制 AI 集群的利润率卡住。” ----> 让 $META / $AMZN / $MSFT 投资注资，来支持未来 ASIC 集群的多来源供应，因为他们会害怕。 尤其是 $NVDA 已经出资 40 亿美元来保障从 $LITE 和 $COHR 的供应……再加上当前 EML 产能瓶颈带来的 PTSD。 其实比大家想的容易。 -> 把光子学业务分拆到美国（市场不喜欢给老牌公司投资）。 - - - - - > 这件事大概率会在 2026 年奏效，因为 CPO / photonics 现在是热潮，而不再是 2024 年到 2025 年初那样。 -> 筹到足够的钱后，自动化晶圆探针机，并给模块 NPI 提供资金。 -> 采用轻资本 fab-lite 测试模型：自建探针卡并内部测试，但把 capex 交给 OSAT。 -> 收购硅光封装 IP（或者继续和 O-Net、$POET 做 JDM）。 -> 保留 Glasgow 的 InP 晶圆厂，用于内部测试、迭代和原始外延。 -> 把光刻、刻蚀等环节外包给 Win Semi 和其他厂商（别自己做重资本环节）。 -> 然后 $SIVE 只要把经过测试的激光器和封装 IP 交给 $FN。 然后就成了。 你拥有了一个独立、可大规模生产、高毛利的 ELS 模块，而 ELSFP 也会成为标准。 之后他们还能做别的事，比如购买 DSP 设计并开始整合技术栈。 不再是每个 10 美元的激光芯片乘 6，做成 50 到 100 美元的激光阵列，而是变成 400 美元的可热插拔模块。 基本上，他们的起点是掌握光子学里激光层面的一个瓶颈护城河…… 然后他们就能像 $LITE 当年那样，往下游做 EML 和光模块。 TLDR： Sivers（$SIVE）在世界正向 CPO 转型的这个时点，持有一个稀缺、独立的 InP 激光瓶颈点。 全球只有少数几家独立公司能做这件事，比如 $SIVE（例如住友、$LITE、$COHR）。 但当然，他们需要资金、需要正确的愿景，才能实现 TAM 扩张。
英文原文
Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.
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安慰对方，祝他对冲成功。
@pepemoonboy 唉，听到这个真遗憾。希望你已经成功对冲掉了。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Ouch sorry to hear that. Hope you managed to hedge.
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质疑战争是否真的会结束，若派地面部队就不像会结束。
@MrMarket85 是啊……但现在大家更该问的问题是：战争真的会结束吗？ 如果我们都要派地面部队了，看起来可不像要结束。 https://t.co/yAXZg7hkfq
英文原文
@MrMarket85 Yeah… but is the War ending is the question people should be asking? Doesn’t seem like it if we’re sending ground troops. https://t.co/yAXZg7hkfq
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补充说 GLNG 也是不错的选择。
@NishantChandra2 $GLNG 也是个不错的选择。
英文原文
@NishantChandra2 $GLNG is a good pick as well
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认为 RDDT 掌握用户信息后，定向广告收入会像 META 一样提升。
@SidG1293 如果他们 $RDDT 掌握了用户信息来做账号验证，那定向广告收入上升的现实就会像 $META 一样。
英文原文
@SidG1293 If they $RDDT knows people’s info for account verification. The sad reality is that their targeted ad revenue goes up like $META.
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认为战时最直接的做法可能是做多 LNG 和石油出口，而不是逆势抄底。
老实说……最明显的想法，比如做多 $LNG，或者做多 $CVX，可能就是最好的，而不是在战时去逆势做多别的东西？ 尤其是在 18-30 的低 IV 下，这些到现在本来都能轻松涨几百个百分点了。 如果局势继续升级，石油和 LNG 出口商大概率还有更多上涨空间。
英文原文
Honestly... the most obvious ideas like long $LNG. Or going long on $CVX. Are probably the best ones instead of contrarian longs in Wartime? Especially with low 18-30 IV, this would have easily been a few hundred percent gain by now. There’s probably a lot more for oil and LNG exporters to run if tensions escalate.
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看好 NEXT 的三到五年长期逻辑，LNG 出口商会受益于伊朗局势。
对 $NEXT 来说，这是一个极其扎实的 3 到 5 年长期多头，尤其是当产能已经卖光了的时候。 不过 LNG 的产量要到 2027 年上半年？ 但我确实认为整个板块都会受到关注。 伊朗事件的主要受益者就是像 $LNG 这样的 LNG 出口商，现在它们在为全球其他地区托底。
英文原文
Extremely solid multi-year long (eg. 3-5 years) for $NEXT, especially when capacity is sold out already. LNG production is first half of 2027 though? Though I do think the sector as a whole will get attention. The main beneficiaries of Iran are the LNG exporters like $LNG now backstopping the rest of the world though.
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认为 NOC、LMT 已提前计入冲突，油价也早已先跑，后续仍可能继续上涨。
$NOC、$LMT 在冲突发生前就已经先跑了，因为市场大体上早就预期到伊朗这件事。Lockheed 年初至今涨了 23%，即使回落后也已经非常夸张。 油价也提前交易过了，但伊朗把一切都炸开的二阶、三阶影响远超预期。 所以这些标的还在继续走强，因为如果局势进一步升级，前面可能会有一场巨大的危机。
英文原文
$NOC, $LMT already frontran ahead of conflict since Iran was largely expected. Lockheed up 23% YTD is enormous already, even after the drop. Oil was frontran as well, but the third order effects of Iran blowing everything up was way beyond expectations. So those kept going up, since there's a possibility of a massive crisis ahead if things escalate even more.
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开玩笑说长水和杯面。
@war_346887 做多水和杯面。
英文原文
@war_346887 Long water and cup noodles.
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向 Elon 询问 X Money 路线图里是否能加入第三方代付。
@elonmusk 不好意思，跑题一下。你们有没有可能在路线图里加入用 X Money 进行第三方代付？ 以防外面的人想把它当成一种支付方式。
英文原文
@elonmusk Sorry for off topic. But is it possible you can include third party billing using X money by any chance on the roadmap? Just in case people outside want to use it as a payment method.
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伊朗无人机袭击阿联酋铝厂后，提出铝产业链和铝期货的交易思路。
伊朗刚刚无人机袭击了阿联酋的一家大型铝厂。 如果你和所有人一样第一反应都是：我怎么从这件事赚钱？ 思路如下： $CNEX - 铝生产中的冶炼环节。全球原铝价格上涨时，它们会受益。 $AA - 铝土矿开采、氧化铝精炼和铝冶炼。他们是从矿山 -> 精炼厂 -> 冶炼厂的一体化纯标的。 当然还有：做多 CME/COMEX 铝（ALI）。 大多数人都在做多石油，但如果伊朗用无人机袭击把一切都打乱了，铝实际上也是战争的一个大受益者。
英文原文
Iran has now just drone striked the major UAE Aluminum Plant. If your first thought like everyone else was: How do I profit off this? Here's how: $CNEX - Smelting process for aluminum production. They benefit when primary aluminum prices hike from global prices. $AA - Bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting. They capture mine -> refinery -> smelter as a pure play way for Aluminum. And of course: Long CME/COMEX Aluminum (ALI). Most people are long oil, but Aluminum from Iran drone striking everything, is a large beneficary of the war.
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说可以把 MU/SNDK 换成海力士，把 COHR 换成 LITE，强调自己偏好的标的。
@ajouannic 你可以把 $MU / $SNDK 换成海力士。或者把 $COHR 换成 $LITE。 我只是说说我个人更看好的替代选择。
英文原文
@ajouannic You can replace $MU / $SNDK with Sk Hynix. Or replace $COHR with $LITE. I'm just saying my personal preferences in what I expect to outperform.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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再次强调 60 亿美元稀释和二级市场卖股不是噪音。
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor 对 $IREN 来说，60 亿美元的稀释和往公开市场卖股，绝对不是“噪音”。
英文原文
@BonyBallf2 @Kaizen_Investor $6,000,000,000 dilution and sales into the open market for $IREN is not "noise".
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拿 PL 对比，认为 IREN 的 60 亿 ATM 会让绝大多数人离场。
如果一家 110 亿美元市值的 $PL 公司申报了 60 亿美元的稀释，我基本确定大家都会离场。 $IREN 之所以申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为那种“钻石手”“逢跌买入”的信徒社区，愿意吞下稀释，只要公司最后成功就行，而不在乎自己的股权被摊薄。
英文原文
If $PL, the $11B company filed for a $6,000,000,000 dilution, I'm pretty sure everyone would leave their positions. The reason why $IREN filed for a $6B ATM is because the cult "diamond hands", "buy the dip" community are happy to tank the dilution as long as the company succeeds over their equity appreciating.
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认为 IREN 现在的股东是在给扩张买单，融资完成后再做多更合理。
我真的很难不同意我对这件事的判断。 我说过 $IREN 长期是增厚的。但短期持有人是在通过被稀释，给这波扩张买单。 所以，对股权增值来说，最好的做法是等他们把融资做完之后再做多，而不是在他们还在积极稀释的时候买。 $IREN 如果不是真的需要用这个 60 亿美元 ATM，就不会去申报它。尤其是为了把 4.5GW 容量货币化。
英文原文
I really find it hard to disagree with my assessment. I said $IREN was accretive long term. But short term holders are the one funding the buildout by getting diluted. So the best thing to do for equity appreciation is go long after they get the funding, not while they're actively diluting. $IREN would not file a $6B ATM just for "optionality" if they didn't need to use it. Especially to monetize their 4.5GW capacity.
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认为超大规模云厂商需要的是当下的电力与土地，neocloud 有短期护城河窗口。
@futureproof_inv 超大规模云厂商需要的是今天的电力……不是五年后的电力。 这就是为什么像 $NBIS 或 $IREN 这样的 neocloud 正好卡在一个甜蜜点：它们有一小段时间去建立可防御的护城河，并成为下一个 AWS。 短期内的电力/土地本身并不是可防御的护城河。
英文原文
@futureproof_inv Hyperscalers need power today... not in 5 years time. That's why neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN hit that sweet spot where they have a short time period to grow a defensible moat and become the next AWS. Short term power/land is not a defensible moat.
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说如果连 CRWV 都快撑不住了，市场上大概还有更好的多头。
@BelfortsTaxGuy 如果你已经开始想，$CRWV 几乎都要撑不住了……那市场上大概还有更好的多头，我只是说一下。
英文原文
@BelfortsTaxGuy If you have to think about almost not sinking for $CRWV... there's probably better longs out there in the market, just saying?
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对比IREN与SIVE稀释规模，认为SIVE风险回报更优
@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN正在稀释超过60亿美元的股份，却无人关注。$SIVE可能需要稀释1500-2000万美元来扩大连续波(CW)激光业务板块，开始成长为下一个$LITE？风险回报特征对我而言更青睐像$SIVE这样的名字。
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@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN is out there diluting $6B+ and nobody bats an eye. $SIVE could potentially dilute $15M-20M to scale up CW laser segments and start growing into the next $LITE? Risk reward profiles favor names like $SIVE for me.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
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I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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说去年看好 IREN，但现在担心是谁在给它的 GW 扩张买单。
我去年看到了 $IREN 的巨大潜力。 我后来转空的原因是……到底是谁在为它的 GW 产能货币化提供资金？答案是现有持有人在被稀释。 $IREN 申报 60 亿美元 ATM，是因为他们大概率没有别的方式来融资。 等他们已经靠稀释把扩张资金筹好之后，我会考虑再次转多。
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I saw large potential with $IREN last year. The reason I flipped bearish is because... who is funding the monetization of their GW capacity? It's existing holders getting diluted. $IREN filed a $6B ATM since they likely didn't have any other way to finance it. I would consider flipping long again after they already financed their buildout from dilution.
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支持 Aschenbrenner 的很多长仓，但对 CRWV 和 IREN 单独看空，原因在于融资和稀释。
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
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Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
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My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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说 -84% 既可能再涨 525%，但风险管理出了问题。
@Mr_Derivatives 这事看起来是做得到的，但也很难……如果他们能在 3 个月内跌掉 84%，那也能在 3 个月内涨 525%。 不过是的，我也不太确定那里到底是怎么在风险管理上搞砸的……
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@Mr_Derivatives Seems doable but hard... If they can drop -84% in 3 months, they can also go up 525% in 3 months. But yeah, not quite sure what went wrong there with risk management...
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强调公司不必增长太多，货币贬值和低流通股也能推高市值。
公司不需要增长那么多，美元只要贬值，百分比就会自己滚上去。 尤其是在政权更迭、目标是把国家债务通过通胀慢慢化掉的时候。 很多公司本身流通盘就很小（比如和 SoftBank 相关的公司，或者 SpaceX 相关标的），这也会把市值往上抬一点。 所以资金流入，并不等于市值就一定成比例扩张。
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Companies don't need to grow that much, dollar just needs to be devalued and % just compound. Esp. if there's an administration change and their goal is inflating away national debt. Lot of these companies trade off low float too (eg. Softbank related companies or with SpaceX and this just inflates MC a bit). So capital inflows doesn't really equate to MC expansion.