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OpenAI 融资与估值循环
我很抱歉，但这到底怎么运作的？ > Softbank 贷 400 亿美元过桥贷款去投资 OpenAI > OpenAI 的纸面估值上涨 > Softbank 再用 OpenAI 新估值去拿保证金贷款……也许是为了还最初那笔贷款？ 这让我想起 FTX 的股权 / FTT 代币，只不过换成了 OpenAI 股权。
英文原文
I'm sorry, but how does this work? > Softbank takes out $40B bridge loan to invest in OpenAi > OpenAi paper valuation goes up > Softbank gets margin loan off OpenAI's new valuation... maybe to pay back original loan? I'm getting PTSD from the FTX equity/FTT token but with OpenAI equity.
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IBKR 也赚了点中介费
@x4tsr 大概会少赚几百万的推荐费……不过没关系，至少让 $IBKR 的净利润稍微多了一点。
英文原文
@x4tsr Probably would have been millions in referral fees… it’s okay though, improves $IBKR earnings net income by a tiny bit.
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IBKR 现在确实更好
不客气，$IBKR？ 但它现在确实是更好的券商，我倒是很惊讶 $HOOD 还没有国际股票。
英文原文
You’re welcome $IBKR? But it legitimately is the better brokerage right now, I’m surprised $HOOD doesn’t have international stocks. https://t.co/yMEZOXtI9w
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SIVE 的最佳 TA 形态
这其实是我最喜欢的 $SIVE 技术图形。 我把它叫做： “把公司所有权从瑞典本地人转移给美国投资者 / 机构。” 时点刚好卡在美国纳斯达克上市和超大规模云厂商 2027 年量产爬坡之前。 特别感谢那边的媒体。 https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
英文原文
This is actually my favorite $SIVE TA setup. I name this: "Transferring ownership of the company from Swedish locals to American investors/institutions." Good timing right before US Nasdaq listing and hyperscaler 2027 volume ramp. Special thanks to the media over there. https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
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不会回应这种蠢话
@Jesusjlloret 我都不知道该怎么回应这么蠢的话。
英文原文
@Jesusjlloret I’m not sure how to respond to something so stupid
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LWLG 和 SIVE 的估值对比
@SidkMena $LWLG 只有一项和 $TSEM 的开发协议试验，市值却有 22 亿美元。 $SIVE 正在出货激光器，明年很可能会进入几乎所有超大规模云厂商的光学项目里，而市值只有 8.2 亿美元。 这是我今天看到的最被低估的机会之一。
英文原文
@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B $SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.
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SIVE 被市场严重低估
@Dulbas163452 谢谢！这些内容都是我在脑子里自己映射出来的，所以我个人会觉得 $SIVE 被低估得很离谱、上行空间也很大…… 但大多数人其实不太懂，所以用流程图的形式总是更有帮助。
英文原文
@Dulbas163452 Thanks! This is just mapped in my head so I personally see how stupidly undervalued/high potential $SIVE is... Majority of others don't really understand though, so flowchart format always helps.
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Win Semi 没错
@LMutaaya 就是 Win Semi……所以是的。
英文原文
@LMutaaya It's Win Semi... so yes.
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SIVE 还有很大上行
@SpilledMocha 我确信，只要 Marvell、Jabil、Ayar、O-Net 和其他公司有足够的 CPO / 1.6T 放量，$SIVE 从这里翻 10 倍是有可能的。
英文原文
@SpilledMocha I'm convinced $SIVE could 10x from here if there's enough CPO/1.6T volume ramp from Marvell, Jabil, Ayar, O-Net, and others.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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别按当前财报看 2027 爬坡股
@PeterSikachev 这是 2027 年的爬坡，我不会按当前财报去判断任何新出现的光子名字。
英文原文
@PeterSikachev It's 2027 ramp, wouldn't judge any upcoming photonic names based on current earnings.
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AMD 之外的主要受益者
@northyvt 我觉得除了 $AMD 之外，$TSM 和 OSAT / 先进封装合作伙伴会是主要受益者？ 也许 $AMAT、$LRCX、$KLAC、$ASML 以及其他公司也会受益？ $INTC 也有他们最近回购回来的自有工厂，所以也挺开心的。
英文原文
@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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台湾的处置规则很烦
@mininginvestorr 是啊，不知道为什么台湾会有那样的处置规则……没有流动性的时候，它只会让价格更容易往下砸。 他们真的应该改一改交易政策。
英文原文
@mininginvestorr Yeah not sure why Taiwan has disposition rules like that... It just really exacerbates price movements downward off no liquidity? They really need to change some of their trading policies.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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Win 和 Shunsin 不会直线上涨
我觉得很多新朋友会惊讶地发现： 股票不会像 Win（3105）和 Shunsin（6451）今天这样直线上涨。 Win 未来 12 个月非常有吸引力，尽管短期会有波动。Shunsin 也是，它是富士康的光子封装 / 测试部门。 可能会有战争式波动，比如伊朗扣了两艘船…… 但我预计 CPO 相关名字会明显跑赢任何宏观环境，并带来更多历史新高。
英文原文
I think many newcomers will be surprised to learn: Stocks don’t move in a straight line up as seen with Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) today. Win is very compelling over the next 12 months, despite short term volatility. Same with Shunsin as Foxconn’s photonics packaging/test arm. Probably going to be War volatility, with Iran seizing two ships… But I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs.
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AIXA 被挡住后会很糟
@R2Discovery 对，像这种也是另一个例子，如果美国没有阻止 $AIXA，这家公司对光子建设至关重要…… 那西方供应链的处境会糟透了。 但政府常常会漏掉一些利基的上游公司。
英文原文
@R2Discovery Yes stuff like this is another example, if US didn't block $AIXA, which is critical for photonics buildout... Western supply chains would be an absolutely horrible spot. But there's some niche upstream companies the governments miss.
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SOI 是硅光基板垄断
对，像这种就是最好的例子。$SOI 是硅光所需基板的垄断者。 法国监管机构已经注意到了。但欧洲很多国家都在配合把技术转移给中共。 唯一能阻止这件事的，就是足够的美国持股或者足够的公众认知。
英文原文
Yes stuff like this is the perfect example. $SOI is a monopoly over substrates needed for silicon photonics. French regulators caught on. But there's so many European nations that are complicit in technology transfer to the CCP. Only thing to prevent this is enough American ownership or awareness.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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美国第一也包括海外供应链
我一直专注于让美国 #1。我确信国外不少人会因此不高兴。 这也包括加速台湾、欧洲和日本的供应链增长（这也是我整体的投资 thesis）。 以确保超大规模云厂商能拿到它们需要的材料，继续起飞。
英文原文
I’m always focused on making America #1. Im sure quite a few people outside the country might get upset though. Part of that includes accelerating supply chain growth overseas too in Taiwan, Europe, and Japan too (my overall investment thesis). To make sure hyperscalers get the materials they need to go brrrr.
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INTC 需要产业主权
@Adnan_M01 我现在看好 $INTC，而且这也是我工作的第一家公司。 美国需要在先进半导体供应链上确保主权。 其中一部分就是在盈利前先补贴 capex。
英文原文
@Adnan_M01 I’m a fan of $INTC now and that was the very first company I worked at. America needs to secure sovereignty over its advanced semiconductor supply chains. Part of that is subsidizing the capex until profitability.
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投资国安供应链是正和的
只是个洗澡时想到的点……投资美国国家安全和供应链，比如 $AMSC 或 $NVTS，真的非常爱国，而且是正和的。 很长时间里，对冲基金都在做空美国本土行业，比如能源和太阳能，直到这些行业被打到破产边缘…… 他们是在和中国的国家补贴下注。 多年之后，结果就是：相比中国，我们能用于 AI 的多余能源产能很少。 通过和白宫以及 $NVDA 一起，支持美国新兴公司的供应链安全…… 股票起飞？美国公司起飞？美国起飞？ （披露：我是美国人，而且非常偏向美国）
英文原文
Just a shower thought... it’s extremely patriotic and positive sum to be investing in American National Security and supply chains like $AMSC or $NVTS. For the longest time hedge funds shorted domestic American sectors like energy + Solar to the point of bankruptcy... By betting with China on their state subsidies. and many years later, as a result: we have little excess energy capacity needed for AI compared to China. By investing alongside the White House and $NVDA to securing US supply chains with up and coming American companies… Stocka goes brrr? US companies go brrr? And America goes brrr? (Disclosure: I’m American, and heavily biased toward US)
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ARM 一天涨 12%
兄弟，这才刚过一天和 $ARM。 一家 2000 亿美元以上的公司怎么会涨 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
英文原文
Bruh it’s only been one day with $ARM. How does a $200B+ company go up 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
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AMSC 更像美国导向受益股
@auer_trist24737 我更喜欢 $AMSC，因为它名字就叫 “American Superconductor Corp” 而且特朗普 + DOE 更有可能给名字里带 America 的公司发资金，老实说……
英文原文
@auer_trist24737 I liked it $AMSC more for exposure because it's called "American Superconductor Corp" And Trump + DoE are more likely going to give funding to the names with America in its name tbh...
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同意 PhotonCap
@PhotonCap yes
英文原文
@PhotonCap yes
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评论美国产业政策倾向：资助非中国企业赴美建厂，实质是排除中国的供应链战略。
这就像给韩国锌业拨款在美国建精炼厂，或者给台积电($TSM)拨款在美国建晶圆厂一样。$HPS.A是北美最大的干式变压器(dry transformers)和开关设备(switchgear)供应商，他们在美国也有关键的生产设施，比如威斯康辛和加利福尼亚。我认为这基本上就是"什么都行，就是不要中国"。
英文原文
It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
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不能覆盖所有名字
@afasano23 不，我没有。我只是把自己做的一些研究发出来，希望能帮到别人。$VSH 其实是个好名字。 名字太多了……没法把每一个都覆盖到。
英文原文
@afasano23 No I don't. I'm just publishing some of the research I did in case it helps others. $VSH was a good one though. There's too many names... can't get exposure to everything.