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希望是正和主义
@AndreasSch52269 谢谢你指出来。 我原本以为那会更像一种正和的社会主义思路，也就是如果本地公司发展起来，经济里的每个人都能受益。 不是那种“把其他成功的人都拉下来”的社会主义。
英文原文
@AndreasSch52269 Thank you for pointing that out. I thought it would be more of a positive sum socialist mindset where everyone in an economy benefits if a local company does. Not the "bring anyone else successful down" type socialism.
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Rockley 退出后 SIVE 补位
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley 掉下去了，这很可能就是 $SIVE 成为 $AAPL 供应商的原因。
英文原文
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley went down, which is likely the reason why $SIVE became the $AAPL supplier.
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AAPL 是量产爬坡的暗示客户
@Embezzl3r 对，这么看确实合理，把 $AAPL 看成他们暗示过的量产爬坡超大规模云客户。
英文原文
@Embezzl3r Yeah makes sense about seeing their reactions to $AAPL as their hinted hyperscaler customer for volume ramp.
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没有泄密，上市本来就是公开材料
@CludioNune67383 @xm_build 我根本不知道那份新闻稿，也没有泄露任何东西。 管理层一直都想在美国上市，这本来就是公开材料。 只是时点太巧了而已，他们爱怎么折腾是他们的事。
英文原文
@CludioNune67383 @xm_build Had 0 clue about press release and I didn't leak anything. Management always wanted US listing, that's literally public material. Just uncanny timing, they're free to waste their time.
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AAPL 这样的客户本该被庆祝
@StormDirac 是啊，通常如果一家美国公司有 $AAPL 这种大概率的超大规模云客户……大家都会欢呼。 可某个地方的大多数评论却都在唱反调，挺有意思的。
英文原文
@StormDirac Yeah, normally if a company in the US has $AAPL as a likely hyperscaler customer... Everyone would be cheering. Yet most of the comments in a certain place were negative. Amusing indeed.
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上市时点和量产催化
我不知道那是谁。我没有泄露任何东西，Sivers 管理层一直都想在美国上市，从 $BYNO 这件事就能看出来，而且他们也说会继续尝试。 紧接着不久就出了新闻，这纯属巧合，挺好笑的，我当时完全没料到，也不知道那回事。 不过我确实预计，量产爬坡 / 市值提升会成为催化剂，只是时间点我是在猜。
英文原文
No clue who that is. I didn't leak anything, Sivers management has always been trying to get listed in the US as seen with $BYNO and said they'd keep trying. Hilarious coincidence with news timing not too long after, was unexpected and didn't know about that. Expected volume uptick / MC increase to be a catalyst though around guessing timing.
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META 可能是终端客户
@xm_build 这甚至都算不上泄密…… 你知道 $SIVE 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供货，而当你指出 $META 很可能是最终终端客户时（因为 Meta 是 $INTC 的硅光客户，而 Jabil 已经收购了这个链条）， 人们就会生气，然后开始做空。这个文化挺有意思的。
英文原文
@xm_build It's not even leaks though... You know $SIVE is supplying to $JBL 1.6T LRO and when you point out $META is the likely end user (because Meta is the $INTC SiPH customer Jabil acquired). People get upset and start shorting. It's an amusing culture.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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AAPL 高概率也在用它们
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL 高概率也在用它们做下一代 Apple Watch，所以这就是 7/7。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL high certainty uses them too for next-gen apple watches, so that's 7/7.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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18,500 订阅者的里程碑
也谢谢大家把订阅数推到 18,500！ 我正在争取短期内拿到整个 X 平台第一名。 这也算是对我“让普通散户民主化获取信息发现 / 整合能力”这个使命的一种验证…… 尤其因为股票本来就是正和游戏，除了做空者之外，大家都会受益于股价上涨。 离马斯克还有一半路呢？
英文原文
Also thank you everyone for 18,500 subscribers! I’m trying to get #1 on the entire X platform as a short term goal. It’s nice validation of my mission to democratize information discovery/synthesis for regular retail investors… especially since stocks are positive sum and everyone (aside from short sellers) benefit from names going up. Close to halfway there to Elon?
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别晒自己的年内收益了
现在大家都在分享自己在 $MRVL、$INTC 到 $ARM 上涨之后的年内收益…… 我想我还是先不晒自己的，免得让别人心情好点？
英文原文
Everyone’s out there sharing new YTDs after $MRVL, $INTC to $ARM went up… I think I’ll stop sharing mine just to let others feel better?
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别在每条帖子下都重复它
@AD97___ 我很清楚这件事，所以大家不用在我每一条帖子下面都反复贴它。 我也不太想针对这些名字多评论，以免增加波动。
英文原文
@AD97___ I’m well aware of it so people don’t need to keep posting it underneath every one of my posts. Prefer not to comment on some of these names just in case it adds volatility.
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IREN 仍然看空
@BitcoinAIGuy 我现在仍然看空 $IREN，因为有 60 亿美元 ATM 的悬压，哪怕市场传言他们在做 colo 也是如此。我去年确实做多过，你知道的。
英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy I’m still bearish on $IREN due to $6B ATM overhang, even if there’s rumors they’re doing colo. I was long last year you know.
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不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
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极致收益来自抓住每个卡点
@InvestorCanna @AtlasShrug1 因为如果你能把每一个卡点的动量都抓对，就有可能做到 10,000% 吗？
英文原文
@InvestorCanna @AtlasShrug1 Because you can hit 10,000% if you manage to ride every single bottleneck momentum correctly?
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后悔没早点上 MXL
@AtlasShrug1 对啊，我之前说 $MXL 很适合做 scale across 时就该直接上多仓的，太有 FOMO 了。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 Yeah should have went long when I said $MXL was compelling for scale across lol. Feeling the fomo for sure
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Ayar 的激光更贵
从我看到的情况来看，那是不同类型的激光。给 Ayar 用的更贵，因为 AI 数据中心要求更高，比如还要做光纤对准，所以成本也更高。 Apple 这边只需要推到大约 100mw 的组合功率，相比 AI 光子数据中心要简单得多，而且他们还能压缩激光尺寸。 另外，因为限制更宽松，晶圆良率也应该更高。 以 Apple 的规模来看，单位经济性也便宜得多。
英文原文
From what I’ve seen, it’s different lasers, ones for Ayar are more expensive since AI DCs have higher requirements, eg. there’s also fiber alignment involved, which hikes the cost. Apple should only push out 100 mw combined, compared to AI photonic DCs, and they can compress laser size. Also wafer yields should be higher since looser restrictions compared to AI DCs. Cost at Apple scale is also much much cheaper in terms of unit economics.
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INTC 财报与本土制造强势
天啊，$INTC。 半导体财报、美国制造、CPU 瓶颈、Intel Foundry，一起起飞。 https://t.co/st3D8wfsFi
英文原文
Holy **** $INTC. Semi earnings, Made in America, CPU bottlenecks, and Intel Foundry go brrr. https://t.co/st3D8wfsFi
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LULU CEO 梗
@woofystocks 如果 CEO 是 Sydney Sweeney，$LULU 早就涨了 300% 了。
英文原文
@woofystocks Sydney Sweeney as the CEO would have sent $LULU up 300%
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LULU 不该找 Nike 老将
只是个想法……也许别请一个 $NKE 的“老将”来领导 $LULU 的品牌重启？ 这就像 PayPal 去请前 HP 的 CEO 一样。 我真的无语了。 https://t.co/GAE7
英文原文
Just a thought… Maybe don’t hire a $NKE “veteran” to lead the $LULU brand revival? It’s the equivalent of PayPal hiring the former HP CEO. I’m just speechless. https://t.co/GAE7pnx8qJ
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宏观回调很正常
@Spunkybunny520 今天从 $AAOI 到 $AMSC 的所有名字，都因为宏观因素出现了健康回调。
英文原文
@Spunkybunny520 Everything from $AAOI to $AMSC today had a healthy correction from macro.
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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TAM 扩张不只 Apple 一家
@Photonix1337 这已经低估了 TAM 的扩张，因为三星、华为、Google 以及其他公司都在复制 $AAPL。 Apple 还能把同样的技术用到其他产品线里。
英文原文
@Photonix1337 That’s underselling TAM expansion with Samsung, Huawei, Google, and others all copying $AAPL. Alongside the same technology for other product lines Apple offers.
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夸一句自己捐得不少
@XtineFang 哈哈！我肯定没带来 35.5 万美元，只是贡献了其中相当一部分。
英文原文
@XtineFang lol! I definitely didn’t bring 355k, just contributed to a material fraction of that.
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SIVE 可能更早放量
我当时估计的是 2027 年 9 月，或者 2028 年上半年。$SIVE 提供的图表也许暗示放量会比预期更早。 如果一家公司让我等 5 年研发，我个人不会去做多。 但我做多，是为了拿到过去 5 年开发成果带来的上行，以及 2027 年来自 Ayar、$AAPL 和其他客户的量产爬坡。
英文原文
I had September 2027 or H1 2028 as my estimates. Graph provided by $SIVE might hint at earlier ramp than expected. I personally wouldn’t go long on a company if I had to wait 5 years for R&D. But I went long to get the upside from all development for the past 5 years with Ayar, $AAPL, and other for 2027 volume ramp.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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Win Semi 替 SIVE 做量产爬坡
@B_Funk_ Win Semi 负责给像 $SIVE 这样的公司做量产爬坡。Win 体量很大，而且是 SpaceX 供应链和 $AVGO 的代工厂。
英文原文
@B_Funk_ Win Semi hands volume ramp for companies like $SIVE. Win is massive and is the foundry for SpaceX supply chains and $AVGO.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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OpenAI 也有传染风险
@YCM47233993 对，如果 OpenAI 倒下，会有很强的连带风险。好消息是，他们融到的钱够再撑一年……
英文原文
@YCM47233993 Yeah OpenAi has so much contagion set up if they go down. But good thing is, they raised enough to last another year…