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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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LWLG 式研发合作加稀释
这相当负面。是大新闻，但本质上是那种没有营收的研发合作，和 $LWLG、$TSEM 那类差不多。 他们还有一个巨额稀释投票，3 周左右会把 4500 万股增到 9500 万股，我对这种大幅稀释周期非常反感。 不过我预计大家最后还是会因为 FOMO / 新闻去买。
英文原文
Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles. But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.
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被市场看空反而是机会
你会看到媒体、银行、分析师去做空 $RKLB，因为大家都觉得他们不可能和 SpaceX 竞争。 后来媒体又去做空 $AMD，因为大家觉得他们不可能和 $INTC（现在是 $NVDA）竞争。 但他们当时确实就是那个领域里的领导者，Rocket Lab 小型可重复使用火箭的成功就是证明。 只是很难一开始看出来，因为情绪总是先站在这些小公司对面，直到它们被“验证”之后才转向。 等它们被验证的时候，你已经错过全部上行了。
英文原文
You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX. Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA). They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets. But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated". By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.
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提过很多美国名字
@coreyagonzalez 我最近提过我喜欢的 30 只美国名字。很多 thesis 帖都在聊日本或台湾名字，但我也经常聊美国股票，比如 $AMSC、最近的 $ARM，或者像 $NBIS 和 $RDDT 这类。
英文原文
@coreyagonzalez I mentioned 30 US names that I liked recently. A lot of my thesis posts talk about Japanese or Taiwanese names, but I talk about US stocks a lot like $AMSC, $ARM recently or stuff like $NBIS and $RDDT?
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SIVE 让我想起早年的 AMD
@H0M3b 我看 $AMD 的时候，它十年前还在 3.5 美元附近，但大家都说他们打不过 $INTC。 还总说英特尔随时都能把他们干掉。 我对 $SIVE 和 $LITE 也有点类似的感觉？不过走着看吧。
英文原文
@H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC. And that Intel could just beat them anytime. Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see.
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别被干扰项带偏
@TheBullLens 我确实经常看到这种事。反正我也没法改变它，所以我就不让它干扰我做的研究。
英文原文
@TheBullLens I do see it happens a lot. Nothing I can do about it, so I just don't let it distract from the research I do.
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从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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博主吃披萨时联想到股票，日常闲聊。
@justfisch2 我喜欢市中心的Slivers披萨，因为它现在让我想起$SIVE。
英文原文
@justfisch2 I liked Slivers pizza downtown because it reminds me of $SIVE now.
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把 X 分成收入捐出去
感谢 X 的收入分成项目！ 我最后其实都会把这笔钱转给我喜欢的本地慈善机构，只是平时不太分享。 我尤其喜欢本地宠物收容所，因为我家的狗去年去世了，到现在还没完全走出来。 还有无家可归者相关项目，因为我在加州大学伯克利分校时确实交了很多无家可归的朋友。 到某个阶段，你其实不需要更多钱了。 但它确实能放大你能带来的正面影响，这也是我还在 X 上的原因（而不是退休，我其实可以退）。 真实地活着，对自己诚实，看看你在离开这个世界前还能带来多少正向改变，这种感觉很满足。 我在 X 上的目标一直都是：尽可能帮助散户投资者…… 而不是传统模式下把每一份 alpha 先卖给机构。 行动胜于语言，所以订阅费只要 1 美元，而且我把所有想法 / 思路都免费发给这里所有人（尽管我本可以收 50 美元）。 这样等我离开这天，大家也能自己做出我做的事情！ 接下来我还在想，能不能让散户拥有和 Citadel 以及其他对冲基金一模一样的优势？ 所以我本来打算免费发布定制 LLM（你知道我以前是研究科学家），再用额外的订阅收入去补贴算力 / 数据成本。 我觉得会很好玩！
英文原文
Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!
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SOI 估值还没到 40B
@TLEROY5 我不认为 $SOI 会变成 400 亿美元公司，也许一年后会到 80 亿到 120 亿美元。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 I don't see $SOI becoming a $40B company, maybe $~8B-12B in a year.
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IQE 已经大涨很多
@miss_middletonn 自从我发帖之后，$IQE 已经涨了大约 260%。路上肯定会有波动，但还没到特别严重的程度。
英文原文
@miss_middletonn $IQE is up like ~260% since I posted. There's going to be volatility along the way, but nothing too material.
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SOI 目前还只涨了 160%
@TLEROY5 $SOI 到现在也就涨了大约 160%。
英文原文
@TLEROY5 $SOI is only up like 160% so far.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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想知道对方买了什么仓位
@hamza_hsn 哦不错！你最后买了什么仓位？
英文原文
@hamza_hsn Oh nice! What positions did you end up taking
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上游卡点还没被完全梳理
这是真的。我不认为美国已经把所有上游卡点都完全梳理出来了。 这也是为什么中国还能逐步拿到那些美国超大规模云厂商所需的不同垄断，并且在过程中慢慢拿走 IP。 散户持股其实是防止敌意收购和外部对手控制的好办法。
英文原文
It’s true. I don’t think US completely mapped out all the upstream chokepoints yet. Which is why China was still able to acquire different monopolies required by US hyperscalers and steal IP over time. Retail ownership is a great way to prevent hostile takeovers and control from foreign adversaries.
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指出AMSC和PLPC虽为行政令受益股，但涨幅有限，不可能单日暴涨48%。
@Yolo365247isme 我确实也把$AMSC和$PLPC列为行政令受益股，但 conviction 没有那么高。 我的意思是 AMSC 今天涨了 8.58%，PLPC 涨了 6.37%，它们不可能一天就涨 48%。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I do have $AMSC and $PLPC as the executive order beneficiaries as well but not as high conviction. I mean AMSC is up 8.58% and PLPC is up 6.37% today, they don’t just go up 48% in a day.
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变压器/开关设备短缺会持续
@nodeflowsol 变压器 / 开关设备的瓶颈大概会持续 1.5 到 5 年……而且几天前它们刚被认定为国家安全风险，随后总统也援引了《国防生产法》。 这些公司会因为联邦资金获得创纪录的 capex 流入和产能扩张。
英文原文
@nodeflowsol Transformer/switchgear bottlenecks are like 1.5-5 years… and it was designated as a national security risk few days ago + got the defense production act invoked by the President. Lot of these players will get record inflows for capex + capacity growth from federal funding.
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SIVE 破千就稳了
@01100101j 等 $SIVE 涨到 1000% 再说吧。
英文原文
@01100101j When $SIVE hits 1000% sure.
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HPS.A 已经很强
如果你听了 Optimus Prime…… 那你现在持有 $HPS.A 三周就已经涨了 47%。 你听了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
英文原文
If you listened to Optimus Prime… You’d be up 47% in just 3 weeks with $HPS.A. Did you listen to Optimus anon? https://t.co/dUWQBpPu0y
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AXTI 又回来了
@offermemoneyXYZ 对，我之前在 $AXTI 上也有点回撤，不过很高兴它又回到 1057% 的收益了…… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Yeah, I was down a bit on $AXTI but glad it’s back at 1057% gains… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
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最近太分心了
@troyofsparta 不知道，哈哈。我只是说这是在订阅者聊天里做规模扩展的好机会。 最近几天我邻居一直在吵，我也太分心了。
英文原文
@troyofsparta No clue lol, I literally said it was a good opportunity for scale across in subscribers chat. My neighbors kept going at it and I got too distracted past few days
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IQE 仍在持有
@UlquiorraRises 不？我还拿着 $IQE，只是从很高的位置回落后，依然还剩 246% 的收益。 https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
英文原文
@UlquiorraRises No? I’m still holding $IQE just down a lot to a small 246% gain https://t.co/eAXSp0sb75
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只是相邻赛道
@mi20483980476 嗯，算是相邻领域，它们分布在多个空间里，但确实有一线光收发器公司。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 Eh, adjacent, they’re in multiple spaces but have T1 optical transceiver companies
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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光子与存储都在加速
谁会想到把 Tangerine Peel 风格公司给资金…… 然后去做空光子和存储里增长最快的名字？ $SNDK 和 $AAOI 最近都在疯狂上涨。 我也看到像 AAOI 这样的名字会继续增长，因为光模块和美国制造供应链都在扩张。
英文原文
Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.
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SIVE 正在走纳斯达克流程
@CludioNune67383 对？这意味着 $SIVE 正在积极推进纳斯达克上市的步骤，而不是只是在“想一想”。
英文原文
@CludioNune67383 Yeah? That means $SIVE is actively doing the steps to list on Nasdaq not just “thinking about it”
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台湾股票只是正常回调
@miraclemaster07 像 shunsin、fittech、win semi 这些台湾股票最近回调了很多。 这只是正常波动，基本面没有发生变化，我还是都喜欢。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 A lot of Taiwanese stocks like shunsin, fittech, win semi and others corrected recently. It's just normal volatility, nothing's fundamentally changed, still like them all.
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欧洲和美国的定价方式不同
你好，感谢更有建设性的讨论。 但除了欧洲人之外，我还真没见过谁会因为 2.5%、1300 万美元的稀释，就去抱怨一家要登陆纳斯达克的公司。 在美国……我们有些随机的比特币矿工，光为了试图转型和买 GPU，就能搞出 60 亿美元以上的稀释（超过公司一半市值）。所以对超大规模云厂商供应链来说，这点稀释其实非常小。 你也应该明白，你讨论的是美国超大规模云厂商的供应商，对吧？比如 $JBL、$MRVL……最近所有 CPO 时间表都被 $NVDA 提前了。 如果有什么的话，Sivers 是我见过最被低估的光子股票之一，而且绝对还没把上行计价进去。 美国市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，但我能理解欧洲是按过去 12 个月来看的。
英文原文
Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion. But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ. Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny. And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently. If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet. US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.
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AAPL 供应链假设
@fredrikmob49943 你好，瑞典本地朋友。如果不是 $AAPL： 请你给我举一个别的美国财富 100 强公司（排除三星后）的例子，它每年能出货 5000 万台以上…… 那么它就能匹配 $SIVE 的研发激光规格和应用，对吧？
英文原文
@fredrikmob49943 Hi Swedish local. If it's not $AAPL: Please name me another US Fortune 100 company (not Samsung by elimination) shipping 50M+ units yearly... That fits $SIVE R&D laser specs + applications then?
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AAPL 但不确认供应链
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL 不会确认 BOM 以及供应链里的上游供应商。但我几乎 100% 确定，可能 99%。 你也许可以再举一个每年出货 5000 万台以上、并且符合他们研发激光规格和应用场景的消费硬件公司？
英文原文
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL won't confirm BOM and upstream vendors in their supply chain. But almost 100% sure, maybe 99%. Maybe you can name another consumer hardware company shipping 50M+ units yearly that fits their R&D laser specs + applications?