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分析$POET因$MRVL CPO业务受益逻辑，认为当前估值具备长期风险回报优势。
$MRVL 发布了财报。从电话会议纪要来看： 目标是通过 Celestial 共封装光学(CPO) 收入，在 2028 年实现 5 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，2029 年达到 10 亿美元 ARR。 $POET 作为备受散户喜爱的 10 亿美元市值中介层(interposer)股票，是此次产能爬坡（Starlight 光源）的主要受益者。 通常，收入加上库存积压会在制造和发货前约 1200 万至 1800 万美元时开始显现。 -> 大部分订单流可能会在 2027 年下半年开始涌入。 对于物料清单(BOM) 成本，估计占比约为 10-15%（推测）。因此，仅 Celestial 项目可能在 2027 年带来约 5000 万至 7500 万美元收入，2028 年营收可能达到 1 亿至 1.5 亿美元。 最大的风险是客户集中度，如果 $MRVL 想要对其光引擎进行双源采购(dual-source)。 但 $POET 和 Celestial 花了数年时间共同开发这种特定的集成方案，因此现在寻找替代方案很可能会推迟 Marvell 2028 年的商业化时间表。 而且 $POET 的上行空间在于它总能找到更多客户。 鉴于 $POET 近期稀释后依然稳健的现金资产负债表，以及热门行业较高的市销率(P/S) 倍数： 随着人们提前布局 2027 年下半年的收入，可能在 2026 年底看到估值重估(re-rating)。 我认为很多散户通常很擅长发现像 $RKLB 这样的“登月”级标的，但很多时候他们入场太早。我的观点是 $POET 也是如此。 搭乘那些刚刚触及拐点(如 $AAOI 或 $AEHR) 的股票上涨要容易得多。 但无论如何： 在 6.64 美元的价格下，风险/回报比看起来很有吸引力，尤其是拥有通往超大规模云服务商的 Celestial 后门，前提是投资者有耐心等待一年。 我在查看盈利预测时想到了 $POET。
英文原文
$MRVL released earnings. From transcript: Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue. $POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source). Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment -> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027. For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028. Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines. But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines. And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too. Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry: Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue. I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET. It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR. But regardless: Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year. Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
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吐槽今年多条虚假新闻引发市场及半导体板块剧烈波动。
@TheValueist 是的，我已经数不清今年有多少条引发市场波动的虚假新闻被散布出来。 > 关于 $MRVL 客户流失的虚假分析师报告引发了暴跌 > 路透社关于关键矿产的报道引发了暴跌 > 彭博社关于出口管制的虚假新闻引发了半导体板块暴跌 等等。
英文原文
@TheValueist Yeah I’ve lost count of how many market moving false news got put out this year > false analyst report about $MRVL customer loss caused a crash > critical minerals by Reuters triggered a crash > Bloomberg false export control news triggered a semi crash And so on.
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市场误读博通CEO言论致光模块大跌，是逢低买入良机。
@PhotonCap 完全同意！市场似乎未能准确把握 $AVGO CEO 关于共封装光学(CPO) 和铜缆寿命延长的微妙语气。今天，由于这种误解，光子学(光半导体) 相关股票普遍大幅下跌，这正是逢低买入(捡拾) 的绝佳时机。
英文原文
@PhotonCap 전적으로 동의합니다! 시장이 CPO와 구리선 수명 연장에 대한 $AVGO CEO 발언의 미묘한 뉘앙스를 제대로 파악하지 못한 것 같습니다. 오늘은 이러한 오해로 인해 전반적으로 크게 하락한 포토닉스(광반도체) 관련주들을 줍기(매수하기)에 아주 좋은 타이밍이었습니다.
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批评虚假报道缺乏问责，损害难以弥补。
@AI_PowerFlow 一些虚假报道对某些人生活造成的伤害是无法估量的。不幸的是，发布假新闻完全没有任何问责机制。只是在损害造成后，趁没人注意时进行轻微的编辑更正。
英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow The damage some of these false reporting has done is immeasurable to some people’s lives. Unfortunate there’s zero accountability for publishing fake news. Just a minor edit correction when nobody notices, after the damage has been done
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博主重写推文以便算法抓取
@crypgreen123 又重写了一遍，这样算法就能抓取到文本了，哈哈
英文原文
@crypgreen123 Rewrote it another time so algorithms can pick up the text lol
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美商务部辟谣AI扩散规则回归，称算法抛售半导体报道不实。
美国商务部发布报告回应路透社和彭博社：“今天有报道称我们将恢复人工智能扩散规则。我们不会。该规则负担沉重、过度越权且后果灾难性。” 此前关于 $NVDA 和 $AMD 的报道，称算法正在抛售半导体股票，从头到尾都是虚假的。
英文原文
US Department of Commerce put out a report in response to Reuters and Bloomberg: “Today there was reporting that we were returning to the AI diffusion rule. We will not. It was burdensome, overreaching, and disastrous.” The reporting around $NVDA and $AMD, that algorithms have been selling off semis on was false all along.
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驳斥彭博社误报出口管制草案引发半导体供应链恐慌性抛售。
彭博社刚刚引发了半导体市场的崩盘。凭记忆，受影响的标的从 $EWY 和 $SNDK 到 $NVDA 和 $TSM 都有。起因是假新闻。这简直是路透社关键矿产误导性报道的2.0版本。肯定得有人为此负责？
英文原文
Bloomberg just caused a semiconductor market crash. From memory names in $EWY and $SNDK to $NVDA and $TSM. Off fake news. This is Reuters critical minerals misleading reporting v2. Certainly someone needs to be held accountable? https://t.co/YaBNpl8nFB
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澄清AVGO推迟CPO利好传统光模块，市场误读导致板块错杀。
整个市场都误解了 $AVGO 首席执行官关于共封装光学(CPO)的言论。 这导致今天光子学板块从 $LITE 到 $COHR 在早盘出现抛售。 市场往往根据头条新闻进行交易，却忽略了所有细微差别。 CPO 是光子学技术的一种演进。 这种延迟对某些光子学参与者如 $AAOI 来说极其利好。 虽然对 Soitec 等 CPO 公司而言总体是负面的。 市场和人们将 CPO 与整个光子学板块混为一谈。 Tan 基本上只是给传统光收发器制造商的产品生命周期带来了巨大的延长。 原话如下： “我想说的是，你不需要去追逐那些被称为 CPO 的闪亮新事物，即使我们是 CPO 的领导者。CPO 会在适当的时候到来，不是今年，也许也不是明年，但会在它该来的时候到来。” 事实上，$GOOGL 拒绝 CPO 且 $AVGO 将 CPO 时间线预测推迟数年： 这可能是对许多光子学公司（如开盘下跌 8% 后翻红的 $AAOI（光收发器））来说最棒的事情。 机架内部，超大规模数据中心仍可使用铜缆。但对于更长距离，使用的是可插拔光收发器（现在其生命周期延长了数年）。 个股往往被一起抛售，但最大的赚钱机会在于理解大家忽略的细微差别。
英文原文
The entire market misunderstood $AVGO CEO’s comments around CPO. This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning. Markets trade off headline news but miss all the nuances. CPO is an evolution to photonics. This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI. While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec. Markets and people conflated CPO with the photonics sector as a whole. Tan basically just gave traditional transceiver makers a massive extension on their product lifecycle. The exact quote: "What all I'm trying to say is you don't need to go run into some bright shiny objects called CPO, even as we are the lead in CPOs. CPOs will come in its time, not this year, maybe not next year, but in its time." In fact, $GOOGL rejecting CPO and $AVGO delaying CPO timeline projections by years: Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI (optical transceivers) that dropped 8% on open then recovered to green. Inside the rack, hyperscalers can still use copper. But for longer distances, pluggable optical transceivers are used (and now get a life extension by years). Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses.
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澄清博通CPO评论，指出市场误将CPO利空等同于光子学板块利空。
是的，光子学板块今天被抛售，我的持仓也有轻微回撤，但我觉得人们误解了 $AVGO 关于共封装光学(CPO) 评论的细微差别。 这对许多光模块(optical transceiver)个股其实是非常看涨的。比如 $AAOI 先跌了 9% 但最终翻红。 主要是像 Soitec 这样具有 CPO 敞口的个股会是净利空。 但大多数人甚至算法都将 CPO 与光子学混为一谈，导致整个板块被抛售。
英文原文
Yeah photonics got dumped today, had a slight drawdown too, but feel like people missed the nuance for $AVGO CPO comments. It’s actually extremely bullish for a lot of the optical transceiver names. Stuff like $AAOI sold off 9% then ended up green. Mainly cpo exposure names like soitec would be net negatives Majortity of people and likely algos conflate cpo with photonics though so whole sector got sold off
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批评忽视基本面盲目使用技术分析的行为。
@17Reazy 是的，这才是正确使用技术分析(TA)的方式。我也这么用。我只是说，那些追随并绘制那些400%+随机突破形态的人，完全没考虑其他因素，比如$IREN 60亿美元的烧钱稀释，简直是一派胡言。
英文原文
@17Reazy Yep, this is how you should use TA. I use it too. Just saying the people following and drawing those 400%+ random breakout patterns without considering anything else like $IREN $6B ATM dilution are full of it.
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技术分析有用，但仅依赖它而无视其他因素是骗局。
@InitialY23 技术分析(TA)是一个有用的指标。这条帖子的核心观点是，那些仅依赖它而不考虑其他任何因素的图表发布者都是江湖骗子。
英文原文
@InitialY23 TA is a helpful indicator. The whole point of the post was that chart posters who rely on it **alone** without considering anything else are snake oil salesmen.
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警示新手勿盲目迷信技术分析，需警惕流通盘解锁风险。
@themomentumplay 因为当新手看到有人通过技术分析(TA)预测 $BULL XYZ 突破至 $200，而其市值(MC)仅为 $500亿时，这确实会对他们造成真正的伤害。 那些画技术分析图的人并没有考虑到，下周将有 99.5% 的流通股本被解锁。
英文原文
@themomentumplay Because it’s genuinely harmful to newcomers when they see someone TA $BULL XYZ breakout to $200 when it was trading at a $50B MC. When those TA drawers didn’t account 99.5% of the float being unlocked the next week.
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警告$IREN巨额稀释带来的长期卖压，质疑其涨至130美元的逻辑。
这60亿美元的稀释对$IREN来说，长期卖压绝对是巨大的。 很多人低估了这种ATM（自动取款机增发）对现有股东是多么恶劣。 如果你相信技术分析(TA)引用的观点，认为$IREN能无视图表，在接近一半流通盘被稀释并随后抛售的情况下，随机涨到130美元，那我就不懂了。
英文原文
The $6B dilution is absolutely immense long term selling pressure for $IREN. A lot of people understate how egregious that ATM actually is for existing shareholders. If you believe that TA quoted where $IREN randomly goes to $130 off the chart alone when close to half of their float is diluted and later sold, idk.
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批评仅依赖技术分析而忽视基本面的交易行为。
@MirageWL8 X 上这么多人相信仅凭技术分析(Technical Analysis, TA)而不看基本面、宏观或催化剂就能交易，这就是他们如此受欢迎的原因。这根本不应该有争议。
英文原文
@MirageWL8 The fact so many people on X believe you can trade on TA alone without looking at stock fundamentals, macro, or catalysts is the reason why they’re so popular. This shouldn’t be controversial at all
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HIMS遭NVO及政府诉讼，减肥药业务受阻，图表分析无效。
$HIMS 遭到 $NVO 和美国政府的疯狂诉讼。减肥化合物药物是其收入增长的主要途径，潜在的诉讼意味着其资产负债表存在危险信号。如果诉讼失败，$HIMS 可能会恢复。该图表本身毫无意义。
英文原文
$HIMS got sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US GOV. Compound weight loss drugs was their primary avenue for revenue growth and potential lawsuit means red flags for their balance sheet. If the lawsuit fell through, $HIMS would likely recover. That chart means nothing by itself
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澄清IREN未单日抛售60亿，强调纯技术分析。
@Agrippa_Inv 谁说 $IREN 在一天内卖了 60 亿美元？ 这篇帖子完全是关于技术分析(TA)图表作为独立分析，并未包含任何关于基本面、宏观或催化剂的想法。
英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv Nobody said $IREN was selling $6B in one day? This whole post was about TA drawers as a standalone without including any thoughts about fundamentals, macro, or catalysts.
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作者曾警告CRCL解禁风险，但当时技术派未予重视。
@cafeaulaitfr 是的，当 $CRCL 处于 140-200 美元区间时，我就曾警告过大家存在大规模的解禁股(share unlock)抛压。但当时很多画技术面(TA)的人似乎并不理解。 https://t.co/d0a3Qdoter
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@cafeaulaitfr Yeah I was warning people back at $140-$200 range on $CRCL that there was a massive share unlock. But a lot of the TA drawers back then didn’t seem to understand. https://t.co/d0a3Qdoter
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技术分析仅是辅助，股价由基本面、宏观和催化剂决定。
我在$CRCL上市前禁售期股价$200时就说过这话。 现在面对$IREN在$60亿稀释后，我要再次重申以证明一个观点： 单纯的技术分析(TA)和图表分析，纯粹是占星术和骗人的鬼话。 价格极其多维，主要遵循三个因素： - 基本面（营收、增长、板块、利润率、利润） - 催化剂（财报、导致基本面重大变化的事件） - 宏观（战争、降息、流动性事件） 如果你读过我的任何帖子，我会尝试将这三者结合起来解释。 然而，我在X上到处看到那些付费墙后的技术分析(TA)绘图者，只发图表，对股票毫无基本面理解。 如果一家市值$130亿的公司发行$60亿新股并在公开市场全部抛售。 或者像(Webull)这样SPAC上市后市值$500亿的公司，原本只有1%的流通股交易，现在全部释放。 基本面的转变和公司行动绝对会摧毁任何图表形态。 股票遵循基本面、宏观和催化剂。 技术分析(TA)在极其多维的环境中只是一个有用的指标。 单靠它，那些向你兜售XYZ支撑位->ABC突破的人完全不知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
I’ve said this before with $CRCL pre-IPO lockup at $200. And I’ll say it again with $IREN post-$6B dilution to prove a point: TA and Charting alone, is pure astrology and snake oil. Prices are extremely multifaceted, they primarily follow 3 things: - Fundamentals (revenue, growth, sector, margins, profit) - Catalysts (earnings, events that lead to material fundamental changes) - Macro (War, Rate cuts, Liquidity events) If you ever read any of my posts I try to explain these three together. However, I keep seeing paywall TA drawers on X everywhere that post charts alone, showing zero fundamental understanding on stocks. If a company is valued at $13B issues $6B new shares then sells all of that on the open market. Or if a company like (Webull) valued at $50B post SPAC IPO only trades off 1% of their float then releases it all. Fundamental shifts and corporate actions will absolutely obliterate any pattern. Stocks follow fundamentals, macro, and catalysts. TA’s are only a helpful indicator, in an extremely multifaceted environment. By itself, people selling you XYZ support -> ABC breakouts have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
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机构对小众光子上游认知滞后，X平台热度具误导性。
对于 $AAOI 来说并不意外。许多机构可能直到被大型 X 账号提及，才听说过像 $AXTI 这样更小众的光子学上游玩家。FinX 社区对这些标的介入极早，但由于 X 平台本身存在泡沫效应，感觉似乎已经“拥挤”。但如果你问这里以外的人这些名字是什么，他们完全一无所知。
英文原文
Not surprising with $AAOI. A lot of institutions probably never heard of a lot of the more niche photonic upstream players like $AXTI until they get mentioned by larger X accounts The FinX community is extremely early to a lot of these names but it feels “crowded” because X is a bubble. But if you ask anyone outside of here what some of these names are, they’ll have 0 clue.
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AAOI波动剧烈且逢低买入，建议避免使用止损。
@michaelsikand 是的，每次 $AAOI 回调时，它就会被买入。不过该股的波动性（Volatility）确实疯狂，经常会出现从绿色（上涨）状态随机回撤10%的情况，这就是为什么人们不应该使用止损单（Stop Losses）。
英文原文
@michaelsikand Yeah anytime it dips, $AAOI just gets bought out. Volatility is crazy with the name though, has -10% random drawdowns into green, which is why people shouldn’t use stop losses.
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重申对RDDT长期看好，认为基本面未变。
@swingtrader003 @CryptoVandelay 对 $RDDT 长期持有高确信度。除了今天大盘整体下跌外，没有任何变化。
英文原文
@swingtrader003 @CryptoVandelay High conviction in $RDDT long term. Nothing changed about it other than the market dropping as a whole today
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祝贺粉丝破万，分享坚持初心带来的指数级增长。
@Kaizen_Investor 恭喜粉丝数达到 1 万！ 我记得今年刚开始时粉丝数也差不多是这个量级，而现在我已接近 10 万。 只要坚持初心，X 平台上的增长感觉是指数级的。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor Congrats on 10k followers! I remember starting out around that amount this year and now I’m close to 100K. Feels like growth is exponential with X as long as you stay true to what you’ve been doing from the start.
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光子学板块普跌，小市值公司波动性显著高于巨头。
@CryptoVandelay 一个很好的教训是，如果像 $IQE 这样的股票单日能上涨 25%，它也可能在单个交易日内出现 20% 的回撤。整个光子学(Photonics)板块都在下跌，$COHR 下跌了 8%。鉴于它是一家市值 450 亿美元的公司，我认为较小的公司波动性更大。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay A good lesson is if a stock like $IQE moves up 25% a day, it can also have 20% drawdowns in a single session too. Whole photonics sector is down, $COHR is down 8%. Given it’s a $45B company, I’d say smaller ones are more volatile.
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看好AAOI未来一年风险回报，但需承受高波动。
@Ren_aramb 不错！与同行相比，我认为 $AAOI 在未来一年的风险回报比极具吸引力。只是它的贝塔值(高波动性)非常高，所以需要忍受波动并建立你自己的信念。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Nice! I see $AAOI risk-return extremely promising over the next year compared to other companies. It’s just very high beta so need to stomach the volatility and develop your own conviction.
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$AAOI逆势上涨，因垂直整合供应链且估值远低于同行，潜力巨大。
$AAOI 面临异常强劲的买盘压力。 今天所有主要的光子学(Photonics)概念股都在下跌： $LITE 下跌 -4.74% $COHR 下跌 -8% $AXTI 下跌 -2.5% $IQE 下跌 -20% $FN 下跌 -3.98% 但 $AAOI 是光子学板块中唯一飘红的股票。 当你审视 $AAOI 的“激光器->设计->组装”供应链时，其估值仅为 75 亿美元，存在巨大且纯粹的上涨空间。 相比之下，其亚洲或西方竞争对手的估值均超过 500 亿美元。
英文原文
$AAOI has exceptionally strong buying pressure. All major photonics names are down today: $LITE down -4.74% $COHR down -8% $AXTI down -2.5% $IQE down -20%. $FN down -3.98. But $AAOI is the photonics name green. There’s a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B. And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+
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强调在高波动股票交易前需建立个人确信度。
@awarness1780 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都具有极高的贝塔值(高波动性)，因此在入场前，建立自己对这笔交易的确信度非常重要。
英文原文
@awarness1780 $AAOI and $AXTI are both extremely high beta which is why it’s important to build conviction in the trade yourself before entering.
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看好$LASR作为定向能武器纯正标的，认为其风险收益比极佳。
@SpilledMocha 我不清楚这会走向何方，我只是想获得定向能武器（Directed Energy Weapons）领域的敞口，发现 $LASR 是纯正标的+已投入运营+规模足够小，使得此处的风险/收益比（Risk/Reward）具有非对称性。
英文原文
@SpilledMocha No clue where this heads, I just wanted exposure to energy directed weapons and found $LASR to be pure play + operational + small enough that risk/reward was asymmetrical from here
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LASR 跌 9% 令人意外，原视其为优质对冲标的。
@yoursregarded 我原本认为 $LASR 加上国防板块会是更好的对冲手段，所以今天它下跌 9% 让我感到惊讶。这是许久以来的首个红色交易日（下跌日）。
英文原文
@yoursregarded I thought $LASR + defense would have been a better hedge so surprising it dropped 9% today. First red day in awhile
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博主遗憾错过LASR建仓，但庆幸加入投资圈子。
@pennycheck 没错！这是一个很棒的早期发现，自从收到你的私信后我就一直在跟踪它，但遗憾的是我没有建仓 $LASR。不过加入这个圈子，晚点总比永远不加入好。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yep! Great early find, I was tracking it earlier since your DM but sad I didn’t take positions in $LASR. Better late than never to join the club though
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Baird强烈看好$LASR，称其为唯一纯概念定向能武器股。
$LASR：“独一无二的公司；保持长期持有”。 这是来自 Baird 的极其强烈的措辞。 分析师报告通常不会在给出“跑赢大盘”评级时使用如此强烈的措辞。 然而，这种兴奋感是真实的： 特别是本周发布了 Iron Beam（$LASR 的知名供应商）运行中的实时视频，展示了其激光拦截 incoming missiles（ incoming 导弹）的能力。 并且随着美国“金穹顶”项目带来的潜在市场规模（TAM）即将扩张。 $LASR 是唯一公开交易的美国定向能武器纯概念股。 我与 Baird 分析师持有相同的观点，认为它是一家独一无二的公司。
英文原文
$LASR: “A One of One Company; Stay Long”. This is exceptionally strong wording coming from Baird. Analyst reports typically never illicit this strong of wording with Outperform ratings. However the excitement is real: Especially after live videos of an operational the Iron Beam this week ( $LASR known supplier ), lasering down incoming missiles. And with the imminent TAM expansion with America’s Golden Dome Project. $LASR is the only publicly tradeable US pure play exposure to energy directed weapons. I share the same sentiment with Baird analysts that it is a One of One company.