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指出 OII 也是热门标的之一，自己只是挑了几个散户更熟的名字。
@section023 $OII 也是另一个很热门的名字。这样的标的其实还有不少，我只是想聚焦几个在 X 上更受散户欢迎的。
英文原文
@section023 $OII is another popular one. There’s quite a few out there, just wanted to focus on a few that were more popular with retail on X.
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推测这场油价叙事背后，是美元计价与长期地缘政治主导权。
@FL_DAYTR8R 我猜这背后是美元计价，以及石油交易和长期地缘政治主导权。 这就是石油美元战争理论。
英文原文
@FL_DAYTR8R My guess is for the US dollar denomination with the oil trade and long term geopolitical dominance. It’s the petrodollar war theory.
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根据 WSJ 关于伊朗海雷的报道，认为海底防御板块将获得更多关注和合同。
WSJ：伊朗海雷是它最强大的武器之一。 “水雷一直是美国海军面对过最具破坏性的武器之一。” 现在更多注意力正被投向水下防御板块。 像 $KRKNF、$OPTT、$CODA 这类在 X 上很热门、用于声呐和反水雷应用的海洋防御公司，可能会获得更多投资者关注，甚至拿到防务合同。 尤其当美国媒体周期开始聚焦霍尔木兹海峡下的水雷时。
英文原文
WSJ: Iran’s Sea Mines Are One of Its Most Powerful Weapons “Mines have been among the most destructive weapons that the U.S. Navy has faced” More attention is now being poured into the Underwater defense sector. Ocean defense names such as $KRKNF, $OPTT, and $CODA that are popular on X for sonar and mine neutralization applications. May finally see more investor attention and possible defense contracts. Especially as US media cycles focus on the mines beneath the Strait.
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认为 AAOI 短期会受 2.5 亿美元 ATM 压制，100 美元附近或有阻力，但长期不重要。
短期看，$AAOI 正在以 100 美元的价格做 2.5 亿美元稀释，所以在一段时间内可能不会明显高于这个价位。 因为他们就是在这个价格卖给公开市场。上一个 ATM 他们很快就吸收完了。 中长期其实没那么重要。 如果我切换成日内交易员的眼镜来看，要是它再跌一次到 80 美元区间，我个人会很乐意买。
英文原文
Short term, $AAOI is diluting $250m at $100 so probably won’t go too high above that number for awhile. Cause they’re selling it but the open market at that price. They tapped into their last ATM ASAP. Mid-Long term doesn’t really matter. If I put on my day trading glasses, if it drops one more time to the $80s, strong yes imo.
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强调仓位管理很重要，若因 AAOI 一只票下跌就睡不着，说明仓位配得不对。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 仓位管理极其重要。 如果因为像 $AAOI 这样的单一持仓一跌就睡不着，那大概率是你的配置方式出了问题。
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ Position sizing is extremely important, if you can’t sleep at night because one position like $AAOI is red, you’re probably allocating wrong.
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用 AI 供应链映射的梗调侃 Meta 的业绩波动
你说得对，算法确实从 AI 供应链映射里学到了一些东西。 肥料暴涨 -> $META 牛油果 -> 抛售。
英文原文
@Shabach17 You’re right, algorithms have been taking some lessons from AI supply chain mapping. fertilizer spike -> $META avocados -> selloff.
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认为 Meta 的增长指引说明投入开始见效
他们给出的指引是同比增长约 33.5%（535 亿到 565 亿美元），而这还是一家市值 1.5 万亿美元以上的公司。 看起来扎克在 $META 上砸的钱，似乎确实开始起作用了。
英文原文
@mktoperative They guided ~33.5% y/y growth ($53.5B- $56.5B) as a $1.5T+ company. Think whatever Zuck is spending on with $META seems to be working.
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认为 Meta 这波回撤有点过头
你们觉得市场不知道 $META 的收入全来自卖广告吗？ 又不是种牛油果？ 过去一个月总共跌了 16.92%，其中这次又跌了 4%，我觉得有点过头了。
英文原文
Do you think markets know $META makes all their revenue from selling ads? Not farming avocados? -4% selloff for a total of -16.92% this past month is a bit too much. https://t.co/wMkcrMaIhX
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调侃做空无限印钞机不现实
这老哥真觉得你能把无限印钞机给逼空啊，笑死。
英文原文
@TBaker1646652 Bro really thinks you can short squeeze the infinite money printer lol
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调侃美国政府可能在压低油价
这段太好笑了： “周一，布伦特原油一度冲到接近每桶 120 美元，随后又急转直下，回落到 100 美元下方。” “客户一直追问我们，到底是谁在大举抛售，”Skirrow 说。“市场猜测可能是美国财政部。” 美国有动机压低油价，所以我不会跟政府去对赌。
英文原文
This was hilarious: “On Monday, Brent crude oil leapt to almost $120 a barrel before reversing sharply to fall back below $100. “We were being pushed by clients as to who the big seller was,” Skirrow said. “The speculation was that it could be from the US Treasury” The US has an incentive to keep oil prices down, so would not place my bets against the government.
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继续看空原油多头，押注美国政府压价
那些看多原油到 150-200 美元的人： 很快就会体会到白银纸面价格操纵是什么滋味。 这次不是来自做市银商或 CME，而是来自美国政府。 《金融时报》称： “美国财政部正在考虑压低油价的措施，包括干预期货市场。” 他补充说：“市场猜测可能是美国财政部，”并指出政府此前也干预过其他市场。 我不会去和想压住原油价格的美国政府对着干。
英文原文
The $150-200 Crude Oil longs: Are about to get a taste of what the Silver paper price manipulation is like. This time, it’s coming from the US Gov, not bullion banks/CME. Per Financial Times: “US Treasury was considering measures to lower oil prices, including intervention in futures markets.” The speculation was that it could be from the US Treasury,” he added, noting that the government has previously intervened in other markets. I would not position against the US government wanting to contain crude oil prices.
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提示 AAOI 在 100 美元附近会有 ATM 压力
@scarfo_leo $AAOI 有一个 5 亿美元的 ATM，行权/发行价在 100 美元附近，那个价位大概会有 2.5 亿美元的卖压，持续不了太久。
英文原文
@scarfo_leo $AAOI has a $500m ATM at $100, probably going to be $250m selling pressure at that level for a tiny bit
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指出 AXTI 站在光子供应链最上游
InP 衬底，以及制造它们所需的原材料。 基本上，如果你一路追到整个光子供应链的最上游，也就是 $GOOGL 的 TPU 或 $LITE 所用到的那一层，那里站着的就是 $AXTI，像宝可梦冠军一样。
英文原文
@DhruTech InP substrates and raw materials needed to build them. Basically if you go to the very very top of the entire photonics supply chains that $GOOGL TPUs or $LITE uses. There sits $AXTI as the Pokémon champion
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开玩笑说自己本该去买 Soitec 期权
@Investmnt_Eagle @realstockfox 我本来应该买期权的，没想到 Soitec 还有这玩意儿。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle @realstockfox I should have done options, didn’t realize there was something for that on Soitec
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称赞 Soitec 是下一只衬底概念股
@realstockfox 我之前喊过 Soitec 会成为下一个衬底主题股，现在 $SOI 已经涨了 44%+。
英文原文
@realstockfox I did shoutout Soitech as the next upcoming substrate play and $SOI is now up 44%+ https://t.co/qsuIf3cjNd
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把 TSEM 当稳健复合器，把 AXTI 当高弹性标的
有 $TSEM 这种更稳的光子复合器。 然后还有我那匹打了类固醇、装了火箭发动机的赛马：$AXTI。 我的仓位已经涨了 550%+。 而 AXT 今天又涨了 10.38%。 $NVDA 的回报都被甩在后面了；几个月前把 AXT 识别为 InP 瓶颈，很多人因此实现了代际财富。
英文原文
There’s $TSEM, my safer photonics compounder. Then there’s my race horse on steroids, with a rocket ship attached: $AXTI. My positions are up over 550%+. And AXT is up another 10.38% today. $NVDA returns got left in the dust, as identifying AXT as the InP bottleneck few months ago was generational wealth to many.
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继续看好 Tower Semiconductor 作为稳健光子复合股
$TSEM 根本不在乎市场其他部分。 Tower Semi 是我最喜欢的光子标的之一，像更稳健版的 $TSM 式复合器。 这是 AI 新范式的一部分。 今天又涨了 5.8%。
英文原文
$TSEM does not concern itself with the rest of the market. Tower semi is one of my favorite photonic names, as a safer $TSM like compounder. For the new paradigm of AI. Up 5.8% today. https://t.co/UcH1K6C4UI
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认为 Reddit 的内幕卖出不构成噪音
@NegativeConvex 不，$RDDT 的内幕减持不算什么噪音。
英文原文
@NegativeConvex No, insider sales are noise for $RDDT. https://t.co/4szrTTanbF
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给 PayPay 研究者的简短结论：估值不便宜
谢谢，想顺手替大家节省一点研究 $PAYP 的时间；之所以感兴趣，是因为我在日本也听过这个名字。 也许有一天它会在日本变得像 $HOOD 一样，但按现在的指标看，估值已经相当高了。所以我自己最后选择了放弃，不过希望这能给其他研究它的人提供一个不错的 TL;DR / 起点。
英文原文
Thanks, thought I'd save others some time with $PAYP, got interested since I've heard of the name before in Japan. Maybe it ends up like $HOOD one day in Japan, but already pretty richly valued from metrics. So I personally ended up passing, but hope it's a good TLDR/starting point for others researching.
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拆解 PayPay IPO 的基本面与估值
PayPay（$PAYP）是最新上市的公司。 如果你在想，要不要冲一下这家日本的“$PYPL / WeChat”公司，市值 118 亿美元？ 那我们来看看。 如果你去过日本，你就会知道 PayPay 到处都是。 它是日本版超级 App，涵盖支付、投资和银行业务。 下面拆一下： 2025 财年指标： 收入：2991 亿日元（约 19 亿美元） 增速：约 26.3% 净利润（GAAP）：392 亿日元（约 2.48 亿美元） 市盈率：约 44 倍 股权薪酬：几乎为 0，不像美国的 $SNAP 和 $DUOL。 看资产负债表： 合并会计让 $PAYP 的账目非常难读。 4.85 万亿日元（约 323 亿美元）的负债或客户存款被混在资产里。 但上市前净负债大约是 -4.8 亿美元，上市募资后约 4.96 亿美元。 所以资产负债表大致是净现金略偏正，但整体中性。 另外提醒一下：软银是大股东，锁定期到 2026 年 9 月才到期。 按 118 亿美元估值，它大约是 5.8 倍 PS，对一家以 26% 增速、利润率还在扩张、且几乎没有 SBC 的日本超级 App 来说，这算是正常估值，不算特别便宜，也不算离谱。 TL;DR：总体上看，$PAYP 按 118 亿美元估值并不差。 后面可能会有 IPO 热度，再叠加低流通盘效应；但如果股价再涨很多，我不会追。 也许它会像 $HOOD 一样，靠 TAM 扩张慢慢抬估值。 不过几个月后软银那类类似 ATM 的压制也会出现。 但眼下还有更便宜的错价机会，比如 $RDDT。
英文原文
PayPay ( $PAYP ) is the newest IPO. If you're wondering if you should fomo in the $PYPL / WeChat of Japan at an $11.8B MC? Let's find out. If you've ever been to Japan: PayPay is everywhere. It's the Japanese SuperApp for payments, investing, and banking. Here's a breakdown: FY 2025 metrics: Revenue: ¥299.1 billion (~$1.9 billion) Growth Rate: ~26.3% Net Income (GAAP): ¥39.2 billion (~$248 million) P/E: ~44x Stock Base Compensation: Virtually 0, unlike $SNAP and $DUOL in the US. If we look at balance sheet: Consolidated accounting makes things a nightmare when you see $PAYP ¥4.85 Trillion (~$32.3 Billion) in liabilities or customer deposits mixed into assets. But pre-IPO net debt is approximately -$480M, and post-IPO proceeds of ~$496M. So balance sheet looks roughly net cash slightly positive but neutral. Also PSA: Softbank is the majority owner, lockup expires September 2026. At $11B, it's roughly ~5.8x P/S and very profitable for a Japanese superapp growing at 26% with expanding margins and zero SBC. By US standards, this is normally valued, not exactly a screaming buy. TLDR: In general, $PAYP is not a terrible long at $11.8B. Might get some IPO hype + mixed with low float dynamics, but would not chase if it ends up a lot higher. Maybe there's some TAM expansion like $HOOD that prices it up over time. But Softbank ATM-like overhang in a few months. But there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now.
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强调自己不受研究机构立场约束
和其他在研究机构或基金工作的人相比，我是独立的。 所以我可以直说：有人花几百万去把 $PLTR 这种国防承包商，和给小企业写博客的辅助工具硬做比较，我当然有资格吐槽。 更妙的是，跟着他的人也在市场里继续亏更多钱。
英文原文
I’m independent compared to others who work at research firms or funds. So I’m allowed to speak my mind about someone who charges millions to compare $PLTR, a defense contractor, with small business blogging helpers. Best of all, the following him are also losing more money on top in the market.
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讽刺 Burry 订阅费和 PLTR/ADBE 的比较
我是真挺震惊的： 人们居然每年合计给 Michael Burry 付 1000 万美元以上的订阅费， 就为了在 $PLTR 和 $ADBE 上一起亏钱。 这还不算他们自己每年 400 多美元的订阅费。 当初他们把 HubSpot 这种小企业博客工具的估值，拿去和 Palantir 那套用于入侵伊朗和委内瑞拉的黑箱 AI 程序做比较时，就已经露出苗头了。 当他们觉得有必要在 X 上把任何人都拉黑，因为自己的论点经不起公开辩论时…… 也许你跟错人了？
英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed: People are collectively paying Michael Burry $10 million + in yearly subscription fees. Just to lose money on both $PLTR and $ADBE. On top of their $400+ yearly sub fee. There were signs when they tried comparing Hubspot small business blogging valuations. To Palantir’s black box AI programs used to invade Iran and Venezuela. When they feel the need to block anyone on X because their arguments can’t hold up to public debate… Maybe you’re following the wrong person?
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说明自己靠跨行业经验和规则提炼 alpha
我主要靠的是人生经历的积累、反复试错（尤其是在期权上），以及行业知识来寻找 alpha。 我的强项主要在金融科技和 AI。 我不碰生物科技，因为我很确定像 Shkreli 这种人在那个领域可能是天花板级别的投资者。 同样地，也许你对能源交易、游戏或国防更懂，所以你能从中找到 alpha，跑赢市场。 但我上面提到的每个领域，其实都有一些通用规则，大家在研究股票时都可以考虑进去。
英文原文
Just based on culmination of life experiences, mix of trial and error(especially for options), and domain knowledge for generating alpha. Mine happens to be around fintech and AI. I don’t touch biotech while others im sure like Shkreli are probably god-tier investors in that space. And maybe you happen to know more about the energy trades, gaming, or defense that you can outperform the the market in from finding alpha. But there’s certain sets of rules that apply across every single domain that I posted above that ppl can take into account when doing research into stocks
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强调基本面比技术面更重要
如果 $NVDA 给一家公司 1000 亿美元，而那家公司的市值只差 1 亿美元，毛利率 80%。 那这只股票还是会继续涨，哪怕“图看起来已经太高了”。 RSI 是什么、有没有超涨，都不重要。 大多数画技术图的人，确实完全忽略了基本面；但我也确实关注少数几个真的懂行的人。
英文原文
If $NVDA gives a company $100B and the MC of it is $100M off, 80% gross margins. The stock will keep going up despite "charts looking too high". It doesn't matter what the RSI is or if it's extended. Majority of TA drawers do completely discount fundamentals, but there's a few I follow that actually do know what they're talking about.
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吐槽 X 上大多数回复都是噪音
@kycefn X 上大多数内容都完全是胡扯，噪音一大堆。 我希望以后大家在回复我帖子前，先把这些经验法则塞进 ChatGPT 回复里再来。
英文原文
@kycefn Majority of X is absolutely regarded and complete noise. I'm hoping everyone starts throwing these rule of thumbs into their ChatGPT responses before they reply to one of my posts again.
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总结十条研究股票时常见误区
我在 X 上一遍又一遍看到的 10 个常见谬误。 也是我自己做研究时最重要的警惕项之一： 1. 处在“拥挤”交易里的名字，比如 $LITE 或 $COHR，并不意味着这些票不会继续涨。 （看看 Nvidia 从 2022 到 2026 年就知道了。） 2. 不要把供应链里的瓶颈和关键公司（比如 SpaceX 或 Nvidia）直接等同于股价回报。 真正重要的是它如何转化为实质性的经营利润。 我提 $AXTI 的原因，就是它大概率能因这个瓶颈涨价。 3. 内幕卖出是极端噪音。 我永远不会拿这个去推导预测，更不会据此算市值应该是多少。 4. 再重复一遍：技术分析只是指标，不是圣经。 别再在我的 Soitec 帖子下面贴 TA 然后说“超涨了！！！”了，完全不看基本面、催化剂或宏观。 尤其在基本面发生剧烈变化的时候，TA 更没意义，比如 60 亿美元的稀释，或者像 $BULL、$CRCL 这样的 IPO 流通盘锁定。 5. 稀释是有区别的。 ATM 和可转债不一样，可转债和贷款也不一样。 这里面的细节非常复杂。 有些会带来更好的股东回报，有些则更伤人，比如 $IREN 那 60 亿美元 ATM。 流通盘变化、ATM 规模和市值的相对关系，都要算进去。 6. 市场是前瞻的。差别只在于它往前看多远。 别总拿过去的收入指引去证明估值合理，因为市场已经在定价未来增长，比如 $TSEM 在光子业务起量时的前瞻增长。 7. 收入/毛利/利润都极其极其复杂。 利润可以藏在税务减记里，利润率也可以藏在利润表别的地方，比如 opex 或折旧。 所以拿“毛利/利润”（比如 $IREN）去和其他 neocloud 相比，若没有把会计口径标准化，其实没什么意义。 8. 净利润不等于 GAAP 净利润。 像 $SNAP 这类公司的真实盈利能力，可能被 SBC 之类的项目掩盖掉。 当公司对媒体宣布非 GAAP 净利润 5 亿美元时，它提交给 SEC 的正式 GAAP 净亏损可能因为 SBC 变成 1.5 亿美元。 9. 流通盘动态 + 稀释很重要。 你可以说“这公司市值 1.5 亿，利润 3000 万”，但如果你忘了 X 行权价背后还有巨大的稀释压力，那你的研究基本就被扔进垃圾桶了。 10. 一定要把收入增长 / TAM 放进去。 公司一年可以增长 200%，但如果 TAM 像金融科技那样最终见顶，营收增速迟早会掉下来。 这就是为什么 $RKLB 会因为无限的太空 TAM 预期拿到溢价，而其他在金融科技里只增长 40% Y/Y 的公司却拿不到。
英文原文
Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.
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把氦气恐慌看成媒体渲染
@Asenov871 氦气这事主要是媒体头条制造出来的耸动恐慌。
英文原文
@Asenov871 Helium is sensational fears from media headlines. https://t.co/wRVem51H4w
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引用 Musk 对内存短缺的担忧
@JungleStocks 你说的是埃隆和 Dwarkesh Patel 二月那期播客吗？ “我真正最担心的其实是内存。做出逻辑芯片的路径比要有足够的内存来支撑逻辑芯片的路径更明显。”
英文原文
@JungleStocks Were you talking about Elon's Feb podcast with Dwarkesh Patel? "I’d say my biggest concern actually is memory. The path to creating logic chips is more obvious than the path to having sufficient memory to support logic chips." https://t.co/6G0juDEBPe
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看好内存价格和相关公司利润率
Counterpoint 的内存价格研究： “没有任何情景会让内存价格在 2027 年下半年回调，因为超大规模云厂商的采购意愿依然没有松动。” 这说的是 $SNDK、$MU、$EWY（SK 海力士、三星）以及其他内存公司。 他们指出： 三星、SK 海力士、美光、长鑫存储和南亚科的 DRAM 产量预计今年增长 26%，NAND 增长 24%。 但超大规模云厂商的需求在可预见的未来大概率会远超供给。 这和 $INTC CEO 说的“内存短缺要到 2028 年才会缓解”很像。 而且 NAND 价格在一季度已经上涨了 100%+，三星二季度还在继续上调 NAND 价格。 DRAM 价格也在不断提价。 内存厂商运营利润率的爆发式提升，可能会压过任何宏观因素。
英文原文
Memory Price Market Research from Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" In regards to $SNDK, $MU, $EWY (Sk Hynix, Samsung), and other memory names. They commented: DRAM output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, with NAND up 24%. But hyperscaler demand will likely far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future. This mirrors $INTC CEO's comments about "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". With NAND prices Q1 increasing 100% + Samsung hiking NAND prices Q2. And DRAM prices going through constant price hikes. The explosive increase in operating margins from memory makers across the board are poised to outweigh any macro.
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提醒别在 AXT 底部投降
@Gubloinvestor 下次别在 $AXTI 见底的时候就直接投降了。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor maybe don't capitulate at the bottom with $AXTI next time