· 供应链分析
Counterpoint 的内存价格研究： “没有任何情景会让内存价格在 2027 年下半年回调，因为超大规模云厂商的采购意愿依然没有松动。” 这说的是 $SNDK、$MU、$EWY（SK 海力士、三星）以及其他内存公司。 他们指出： 三星、SK 海力士、美光、长鑫存储和南亚科的 DRAM 产量预计今年增长 26%，NAND 增长 24%。 但超大规模云厂商的需求在可预见的未来大概率会远超供给。 这和 $INTC CEO 说的“内存短缺要到 2028 年才会缓解”很像。 而且 NAND 价格在一季度已经上涨了 100%+，三星二季度还在继续上调 NAND 价格。 DRAM 价格也在不断提价。 内存厂商运营利润率的爆发式提升，可能会压过任何宏观因素。
Memory Price Market Research from Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" In regards to $SNDK, $MU, $EWY (Sk Hynix, Samsung), and other memory names. They commented: DRAM output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, with NAND up 24%. But hyperscaler demand will likely far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future. This mirrors $INTC CEO's comments about "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". With NAND prices Q1 increasing 100% + Samsung hiking NAND prices Q2. And DRAM prices going through constant price hikes. The explosive increase in operating margins from memory makers across the board are poised to outweigh any macro.