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围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 29 / 45 页
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委内瑞拉人发现PLTR高市盈率的原因
@ssankar 委内瑞拉人终于发现了 $PLTR 为何以 350 倍市盈率(P/E)交易。
英文原文
@ssankar Venezuelans finally found out why $PLTR trades at 350 P/E.
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委内瑞拉局势转向国家建设，利好ASHM和CVX重估。
观察得很敏锐。我之前也提出过类似的观点，即推翻委内瑞拉国防部长 Vladimir Lopez 和 FANB 可能需要 3 个月以上的时间。然而，鉴于特朗普关于美国控制委内瑞拉的言论，$ASHM、$CVX 等公司很可能会受益并大幅重估，因为局势似乎正以快于预期的速度转向“国家建设”模式。
英文原文
Great observation. I made a similar point earlier where it might take ~3 months + to topple the defense minster Vladimir Lopez and FANB. However, from Trump's comments on the United States control over Venezuela, $ASHM, $CVX, and others will likely see the benefit + re-rate heavily since it does look like we're shifting to nation-building mode faster than expected.
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委内瑞拉政权更迭利好困境债务、基建、稀释剂、银行及能源股。
@poconokid18 收回前言，从特朗普的言论来看，政权更迭似乎比预期更顺利。关于受益者的新帖在此： https://t.co/wRNq8ntQSt （引用内容）：美国已推翻委内瑞拉马杜罗政权。大家的第一反应是：如何从委内瑞拉的国家重建中获利？ 1. 困境债务与债券 ($ASHM, $HLI, $LAZ) Ashmore ($ASHM) 拥有“纯玩”委内瑞拉困境债务，作为最大机构持有者，有望获得2-3倍收益。债券交易价格在10-20美分，分析师（花旗、安联）估计政权更迭后每美元可回收30-55美分，资产账面价值约翻2-3倍。 $HLI - 投行是委内瑞拉债权人委员会的主要财务顾问，在主权重组中收取“成功费”，是重组领域的“卖铲人”。 $LAZ - 主权债务重组（曾顾问希腊、乌克兰）。该公司受益于交易的复杂性，委内瑞拉债务结构堪称史上最复杂。 2. 重质原油移植 (巴黎: TE, $GHM) Technip - 委内瑞拉关键基础设施的历史架构师。新政府可能向原始设备制造商(OEM)授予“免投标”或“单一来源”服务合同以加速修复，因为引入新公司逆向工程需数年。 $GHM - 这家小型工业公司制造炼油厂和升级装置使用的真空喷射系统。升级委内瑞拉重油必须在真空中蒸馏以防止其变成固体焦炭。 3. 稀释剂 ($TRGP) 在大量出口石油前，委内瑞拉必须大量进口稀释剂（石脑油或天然汽油）以使重质原油通过管道流动。 $TRGP 运营Galena Park Marine Terminal，这是向委内瑞拉发送稀释剂的主要枢纽。恢复美国供应意味着Targa的Galena Park Marine Terminal（休斯顿主要LPG/石脑油出口枢纽）将立即看到巨大的量增，以取代伊朗供应。 4. 银行板块 (巴拿马: MVZ.A / MVZ.B) Mercantil是一个独特的异常现象，一家在巴拿马上市并在美国有业务（Amerant已分拆，但Mercantil保留）的委内瑞拉银行控股公司。 它是美元化资金流、汇款和援助资金从美国/迈阿密回流重建中的加拉加斯最合理的“桥梁”。 5. 能源板块 ($CVX, $VLO, $PSX) 政权更迭和国家重建最明显的受益者是雪佛龙 ($CVX)。与其他离开的美国巨头不同，雪佛龙在委内瑞拉保持了存在。他们拥有人员、许可证（通过OFAC）和油田（Petroboscan, Petropiar），可立即增产。 墨西哥湾沿岸炼油商 $VLO 和 $PSX 也将受益，因为他们在德克萨斯和路易斯安那的炼油厂专门用于加工委内瑞拉的重质、高硫原油。自制裁以来，他们不得不从其他地方购买更昂贵的重质原油。委内瑞拉石油的大量涌入将大幅降低其原料成本，扩大利润空间。 人工智能是2025年及2026年最盈利的交易之一。 鉴于政权更迭的快速意外转折，投资于从银行到石油加工的国家重建可能成为2026年最盈利的交易。
英文原文
@poconokid18 Scratch that, looks like regime change will go smoother than expected from Trump's comments. Made a new post about beneficiaries here: https://t.co/wRNq8ntQSt
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美国战争利好股市，$TRGP因委内瑞拉稀释剂贸易受益。
信不信由你，美国发动的战争是看涨的。特别是当存在新的市场机会时，那些从国家建设和新石油储备供应中获利的公司。例如，$TRGP，受益于向委内瑞拉进口稀释剂（石脑油或天然汽油）以使重质原油通过管道输送。
英文原文
Believe it or not, US wars are bullish. Especially when there’s new market opportunities with companies profiting off nation building and a new supply of oil reserves. For example, $TRGP, that benefits from diluent imports to Venezuela (naphtha or natural gasoline) to make the heavy crude flow through pipelines.
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分析委内瑞拉政权更迭后的投资时间线及$ASHM等受益标的。
所以我来回答你关于政权更迭后时间线及受益者的问题。 如果国防部长接受安全通行/大赦，那么对于$ASHM、$GHM或$MVZ.B等公司以及政权更迭后的相关企业来说，这就是买入信号。 $ASHM - 委内瑞拉债务的最大持有者。如果进行债务重组，债券估值可能会重估上涨100%以上。 $GHM / $MVZ.B - 委内瑞拉超重质原油的真空喷射器供应商 | 委内瑞拉最大的银行 还有像$ENR和$AMTB这样的大量公司也会从重建中获利。 但目前，在查韦斯被捕后，存在政治过渡真空。国防部长弗拉基米尔·洛佩斯和委内瑞拉国民军(FANB)仍持敌对态度，并动员部队进行防御。因此，与1989年的巴拿马（约6周）不同，委内瑞拉面临的是更“伊拉克式”的风险，这可能持续： ~3-18个月。 否则，雪佛龙$CVX面临资产风险，而像$SU这样的公司是制度崩溃期间的好替代品（连同上述公司一起维持封锁并从供应中断中获利）。
英文原文
So I'll answer your question on timeline + beneficiaries post-regime change. If Defense Minster accepts safe passage/amnesty, then it's a buy signal for stuff like $ASHM, $GHM, or $MVZ.B and companies post regime change. $ASHM - largest holder of Venezulean debt. Bonds likely 100%+ higher re-rated if theres restructuring. $GHM / $MVZ.B - Vacuum Ejectors for extra-heavy crude in Venezulea | Largest banks in Venezuela There's a lot more companies like $ENR and $AMTB that would profit off the reconstruction too. But right now there's now a political transition vacuum after the capture of Maduro. The defense minster Vladimir Lopez and FANB are still hostile with mobilized troops to defend. So, unlike 1989 Panama (~6w), Venezuela is a more "Iraq-style" risk, which could last: ~3-18 months. Otherwise, there's asset risks from Chevron $CVX, while companies like $SU are good substitute during the institutional collapse (alongside the companies mentioned above to maintain the blockade + profit off supply disruption).
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委内瑞拉局势或扰乱氨出口，利好竞争对手受阻的$CF利润率。
这是二阶效应，并非直接关于委内瑞拉。它涵盖了特立尼达和多巴哥，该国距海岸仅7英里，是全球第一或第二大氨(氨)出口国。对委内瑞拉的攻击可能会扰乱这两个国家，因此$CF作为化肥/生产商标的，其利润率将提升并从中受益，因为其竞争对手陷入了困境。
英文原文
It’s second order effects, not directly about Venezuela. It encompasses Trinidad & Tobago, which are basically 7m off the coast as the #1 or #2 largest exporter of ammonia in the world. The attack on Venezuela might disrupt the two, so the $CF fertilizer/producer play increases margins + benefits since their competitors are stuck.
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AXTI获资扩产且垂直整合优势可转嫁InP涨价压力。
对营收预测一无所知，但关于 $AXTI 有两点看法。 1. 他们现在有1亿美元用于产能扩张（直接增加营收），且销售应已触及上限。 2. 付费信息显示，中国供应商开始对西方公司提高磷化铟(InP)价格。AXT 作为垂直整合公司掌控供应链，因此任何涨价都只是其自身利润率的提升。 如果我们看到类似高带宽内存(HBM)式的基板价格冲击，这种效应将会放大。
英文原文
No clue about revenue estimates but two things about $AXTI. 1. They now have $100m to fund capacity expansion (direct revenue increase) and should be capped out on sales. 2. Paywalled info showed that Chinese vendors were starting InP price hikes for Western companies. AXT owns the supply chain as a vertically integrated company, so any hike would just be an increase on their own margins. This would scale up if we see a HBM type shock for substrate prices
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$AXTI掌控InP供应链瓶颈，预计2026年中现供应挤压，估值有望重估。
我个人估算，$AXTI 覆盖了全球磷化铟(InP)基板供应能力的约30%，以及磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)原料的约25-30%。关于 $AXTI CEO 声称“掌控40%供应链”的说法，鉴于他拥有更多内部信息，若计入未来增产计划，达到该水平是有可能的。另一方面，网站上标注的60%数据显得略微夸大。我计划持有至2026年中，届时预计会出现类似高带宽内存(HBM)的供应挤压(Supply Squeeze)。此外，Northland 1亿美元融资后的稀释风险较低，这也是我看好的一点。部分非公开付费数据显示，这些供应商正在提高对欧美客户的价格，我预计利润率也将上升。这是一个常被忽视的隐藏阿尔法(Alpha)因素，因为 $AXTI 拥有完整的成本结构，价格上涨将直接转化为显著的利润率改善。最大的风险因素是中国政府的许可审批，而这正是其掌握如此关键瓶颈却市值仍低于10亿美元的原因。如果供应链完全位于美国，我认为其估值达到1000亿美元也不足为奇。
英文原文
私は個人的に、世界のInP基板（Indium Phosphide substrate）供給能力の約30%、および**インジウム・リン（Indium Phosphide）原料については約25〜30%**をカバーしていると試算しています。 $AXTI CEOが「サプライチェーンの40%を握っている」と発言した点については、彼の方がより内部情報を持っているはずなので、今後の増産を織り込めばその水準に達する可能性はあると思います。一方で、ウェブサイトに記載されている60%という数字はやや過大に見えます。 私は2026年半ばまで保有する予定で、その頃にはHBMと同様の供給逼迫（サプライスクイーズ）が起きると見ています。また、Northlandによる1億ドルの資金調達後は希薄化リスクが低い点も評価しています。 さらに、一部の非公開・有料データでは、これらのベンダーが欧米向けに価格を引き上げていることが示されており、マージンも上昇すると予想しています。これは見過ごされがちな隠れたアルファ要因で、$AXTIはコスト構造全体を自社で保有しているため、価格上昇はそのまま大幅な利益率改善につながるからです。 最大のリスク要因は中国当局による許認可（パーミッティング）ですが、それこそがこれほど重要なボトルネックを握っていながら時価総額が10億ドル未満に抑えられている理由です。 もしサプライチェーンがすべて米国に存在していれば、評価額が100億ドル規模になっても不思議ではないと考えています。
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$AXTI 占据磷化铟供应链40%，是AI基建关键瓶颈但风险极高。
@beauty_oe 据 $AXTI 首席执行官称，该公司占据磷化铟(InP)供应链的40%。一家如此小规模的企业竟掌握着AI基础设施建设的“瓶颈(Chokepoint)”环节，这非常有趣。不过风险极高，绝非适合所有人的股票。
英文原文
@beauty_oe $AXTI のCEOによると、同社はインジウムリン（InP）サプライチェーンの40%を占めているそうです。これほど小規模な企業が、AIインフラ構築の『チョークポイント（要衝）』を握っているというのは非常に興味深いですね。ただ、リスクも極めて高く、決して万人向けの銘柄ではありません。
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中国暂停镓锗禁令为AXTI提供一年窗口，机构借机布局InP瓶颈红利。
散户可能不知道的是，中国宣布暂停对美实施镓(Gallium)和锗(Germanium)的全面出口禁令一年，有效期至2026年11月27日。 随着$AXTI进行1亿美元增发，机构可能将其解读为AXT在“休战”结束、中国重新实施出口限制前，利用磷化铟(InP)价格狂热的12个月窗口期。 由于AXT处于InP瓶颈的核心位置，一年不受阻碍的产能爬坡足以带来上行空间。Northland可能认为这是纳斯达克唯一的主要纯概念股，让投资者能直接暴露于这一材料瓶颈风险中。 简而言之：风险始终存在，但直到明年11月27日之前不太可能显现。当然，如果$AXTI无法出口，AI基础设施建设也会停滞，届时会有更多问题需要担忧。
英文原文
Something retail probably doesn't know is that China announced a 1Y suspension of its total export ban on gallium and germanium to the US, effective until Nov 27, 2026. With the $AXTI $100m offering, institutions probably interpreted this as a 12 month runway for AXT to capitalize on the InP price frenzy before the "truce" expires and China introduces export restrictions. Since AXT is at the center of the InP bottleneck, one year of unhindered ramp is enough of an upside. And Northland prob saw as is the only major pure-play listed on the NASDAQ that gives investors direct exposure to this material bottleneck. TLDR: The risk is always there, but not likely to be present until Nov 27th next year. Of course if $AXTI cannot export, the AI buildout stalls too and there's more issues to worry about.
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AXTI因InP衬底短缺及中美价差套利，受益于AI供应链瓶颈，具非对称上涨潜力。
磷化铟(InP)衬底短缺与“价差”套利 - $AXTI 市场研究显示，InP和光学组件正变得类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的短缺和价格狂热。 最初的瓶颈是由$NVDA垄断$COHR到$LITE的电吸收调制激光器(EML)产能造成的（TrendForce）。 以下是详细分析： 据报道，$NVDA已对EML激光芯片进行战略性产能预订，将这些特定组件的交货期推至2027年以后。 通过预订像$LITE和$COHR这样受InP限制的集成器件制造商(IDM)的成品产能，英伟达实际上消除了光学引擎的产能。 “二阶效应”：因此，许多超大规模云服务商（如$MSFT到$AMZN）可能推迟了其路线图/爬坡计划，并正在寻找产能。 光学制造商也在疯狂寻找替代来源。 由于主要IDM已被预订，超大规模云服务商正在向上游移动，直接锁定晶圆、衬底和原料产能，从而在材料层面放大需求。 上海金属市场上6N和7N级铟均处于历史高位；西方市场价格更高，代表了中国与西方市场之间的价格分化。 例如，6N级铟价格约为每公斤412.83-425.46美元。 6N级西方价格约为668.00美元（1月1日，来源：Indium Corporation，5-9公斤数量），溢价超过50%+。（与超大规模云服务商的直接现货谈判价格可能不同）。 7N级的溢价可能更高，衬底享有的溢价最高（无公开数据，但一些估计达到三位数溢价）。 然而，瓶颈现已向上游迁移至衬底本身（以及三阶效应，原料）以锁定产能。 $AXTI在InP瓶颈中或许扮演着最关键且独特的角色，即“InP供应链的40%”（$AXTI CEO ER语录）： 低成本：AXTI的工厂位于北京。他们采购材料（拥有10+家材料供应商）并自行精炼成成品衬底。 高售价：他们将成品InP衬底销往全球市场，那里的价格因短缺和西方铟价格而通胀。 套利：只要AXTI继续获得出口许可证，他们就能捕获中国低制造成本与全球高售价之间的巨大价差。 相比之下，西方公司很大程度上受到上游材料成本和西方溢价的影响。因此，$AXTI下个季度的利润率应会迅速扩张，加上Northland通过1亿美元股份出售注入的生产产能。 这源于12月下旬亚洲金属(Asian Metal)的报道，表明中国供应商明确“提高了对美出口报价”： 2025年12月19日：亚洲金属报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，确认到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这源于超大规模云服务商的产能垄断、交货期延长以及“AI”材料定价与商品基准的脱钩。 InP衬底“大幅涨价”的条件不仅存在，而且正在活跃。 在整个2026年，随着超大规模云服务商向上游锁定需求，InP衬底价格以及由此一步之遥的铟商品价格可能会迅速飙升。 从InP衬底+InP原料价格可能的抛物线式上涨中双向受益的公司将是$AXTI，在$16股价、约8.5亿美元市值下呈现非对称上行空间。然而，风险依然存在，因为他们严重依赖出口许可证和美中贸易关系。 TLDR，AXT： 1. 位于InP衬底和InP原料瓶颈的中心 2. 受益于分配战期间中国生产与美国超大规模云服务商溢价之间的利润率套利和衬底价格飙升。 3. 控制着西方超大规模云服务商AI建设所需衬底的主要全球现货产出份额。 超大规模云服务商看到英伟达垄断了EML产能，现在可能正在查看像$AXTI、住友或原料（Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA）这样的公司以确保其路线图。 AXT是8.5亿美元市值下最有趣的公司之一，因为它控制着超大规模云服务商AI建设的关键瓶颈，并捕获InP衬底价格飙升+利润率套利机会。
英文原文
The InP substrate shortage and "Spread" Arbitrage - $AXTI Market research is showing InP and optical components to become analogous to the HBM shortage and price craze. The initial bottleneck was caused by $NVDA monopolizing of the production capacity of EML from $COHR to $LITE (TrendForce). Here's the breakdown: $NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027. By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines. The "Second Order effect": As a result, many hyperscalers have likely delayed their roadmaps/ramp from $MSFT to $AMZN and are looking for capacity. Optical makers have also scrambled for alternative sources. Since the primary IDMs are booked, hyperscalers are moving upstream to secure wafers, substrate, and feedstock capacity directly, creating a effect that is amplifying demand at the materials level. Both 6N and 7N Indium are at all time highs on the Shanghai Metal Markets; prices sit higher on Western markets, representing a price bifurcation between China and Western markets. 6N for example sits ~$412.83-$425.46 per kg. 6N Western prices are ~$668.00 (Jan 1st, source: Indium Corporation at 5-9 kg quantities), over 50%+ premium. (Spot direct negotiations to hyperscalers would likely have different prices). Premiums for 7N would likely higher margin, with substrates commanding the most premium (not public data, but some estimates go into triple digit premiums) However, the bottleneck has now migrated upstream to substrate itself (and third order effect, feedstock) to secure capacity. $AXTI perhaps plays one of the most critical roles and unique roles as "40% of the InP supply chain" ( $AXTI CEO ER quote) in the InP bottleneck: Low costs: AXTI's factory is in Beijing. They source materials (own 10+ materials suppliers) and refine them themselves into finish substrates. Sell High: They sell finished InP substrates to the global market, where prices are inflated by the shortage and the Western Indium price. Arbitrage: As long as AXTI continues their export permits, they capture the massive spread between low Chinese manufacturing costs and high global selling prices. This is compared to Western companies that are largely affected by upstream material costs and Western premiums. As a result $AXTI, margins next quarter should expand rapidly on top of their production capacity funded by the $100m share sale injection by Northland. This is implicated from reports from late December reports from Asian Metal, indicating that Chinese suppliers explicitly "raised offering prices" for exports to the US: December 19, 2025: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This stems from capacity monopolization by hyperscalers, extended lead times, and a decoupling of "AI" material pricing from commodity baselines. The conditions for a "Massive Price Increase" for InP substrates are not just present, they are active. Throughout 2026, both the price of InP substrates, and by one-hop, the commodity price of Indium would likely see a rapid surge as hyperscalers go upstream to secure demand. The company that benefits both ways from the a possible parabolic rally in InP substrate + InP feedstock prices would be $AXTI, presenting an asymmetrical upside at $16, ~$850M MC. However, the risks are present as they're heavily reliant on export permits and US-China trade relations. TLDR, AXT: 1. Sits in the center of both InP substrate and InP feedstock bottlenecks 2. Benefits from margin arbitrage and substrate price surges between China production and US hyperscaler premiums during allocation battles. 3. Controls a major a major percentage of the world's merchant output for substrates required for the Western hyperscaler AI buildout. Hyperscalers saw Nvidia monopolized EML capacity and are likely looking at companies like $AXTI, Sumitomo or feedstock (Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA) to secure their roadmaps now. AXT is one of the most interesting companies at $850m given it controls the critical bottleneck to the hyperscaler AI buildout and captures both the InP substrate price surge + margin arbitrage opportunities.
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AXTI扩产无风险，关注价格作为需求与利润率增长的代理指标。
那里没有风险。由于 $AXTI 的一位董事会成员不幸去世，这只是例行程序。如果存在风险，Northland 和其他人就不会给他们 1.3 亿美元（行使了 1300 万美元）来资助磷化铟(InP)衬底扩产。话虽如此，上海有色网(SMM)上的 7N 级产品价格已达到历史新高，而美国市场在此基础上还支付溢价。因此，我主要关注价格作为需求以及类似 AXT 的高带宽内存(HBM)可能带来的利润率增长的代理指标。（通过铟公司(Indium Corp)在西方市场的 6N 级产品溢价约为 200%+）
英文原文
No risk there. It's routine procedure since one of $AXTI's board members passed away sadly. Northland and others wouldnt give them $100M to fund InP substrate expansion (exercised the $13m) if there were risk there. That being said 7N prices on SMM have reached ATHs, and American markets are paying premium on top of that. So I'd mainly watch prices as a proxy for demand and possible margin increases like HBM for AXT. (it's like 200%+ premium for 6N on Western markets via Indium Corp)
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OSS和SKYT或成2026年边缘计算热门主题
@LawnChairCap 像 $OSS 或 $SKYT 这样与边缘计算/晶圆代工相关应用相关的股票，可能会成为 2026 年的热门主题。
英文原文
@LawnChairCap Stuff like $OSS or $SKYT for edge computing/foundry related apps are probably going to be a hot theme for 2026
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$AIRO 现金充裕且属热门赛道，因收入递延被错杀，具备上行潜力。
从基金/垂直领域而非高管团队的角度来看待 $AIRO。例如，@chamath 直到获得 Groq 200 亿美元退出才摆脱负面评价；Saylor 直到 $MSTR 完成“劫案”式操作前只是个梗。这确实有很大影响，但并非全部。 就 $AIRO / $ONDS 而言，鉴于俄乌冲突、北约及国防部向无人机领域注资，该垂直领域应享有溢价（但 Airo 却像困境股一样交易）。 RQ-35 Heidrun 知识产权在无 GPS 环境中极具吸引力。但他们有大量如培训等杂项业务，只是支线任务。 类似 $SMCI，$AIRO 的暴跌也是由积压订单延迟导致（630 万美元 vs 2370 万美元的不及预期）。但 2000 万美元的无人机发货只是推迟而非取消。 净现金 6880 万美元，考虑到其 2.5 亿美元的小市值，这非常稳健。其企业价值/收入倍率为 2.1 倍，而 $AVAV 为 9.4 倍。我印象中 $ONDS 约为 20-30 倍。 总之：现金状况稳健，垂直领域具吸引力，下跌源于收入递延而非取消，低市值带来良好上行空间。 鉴于现金状况及仅属收入递延，它不应像困境股那样交易。
英文原文
Looking @ $AIRO from the fund/vertical not the exec team. For example, @chamath was frowned upon until he got that 20B Groq exit. Or Saylor was a meme until $MSTR pulled off a heist. It does make a large difference, but it's not everything. In terms of $AIRO / $ONDS, especially with Russia/Ukraine conflicts + NATO + DoD funneling money into drone segments, the vertical should command a premium (but Airo, trades like it's distressed). The RQ-35 Heidrun IP, seemed extremely interesting for GPS-denied environments. But they have a ton of misc companies like training that are just side quests. So similar to $SMCI, there was also backlog delays with caused the crash in Airo (the $6.3M vs $23.7M miss). But the $20m drone shipments was just shifted not cancelled. Net cash is $68.8M which is extremely solid given its mini $250m MC, and it trades at 2.1x EV to revenue, compared to others like $AVAV at 9.4x. I think $ONDS was like 20-30 off the top of my head. So TLDR: solid cash position, attractive vertical, drop based on differed revenue not cancelled, low market cap presents good upside. It shouldn't trade like a distressed company because of cash position + just deferred rev.
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澄清CRCL不依赖以太坊，指出L2活动不影响ETH价格但助推广采用。
$CRCL 并不依赖以太坊，因为 USDC 可以在 $SOL、Arc 以及任何你想要的 EVM 兼容网络(EVM-compatible network)上使用。 以太坊代币销毁量已从一年前每年持续数百至数千枚的水平降至个位数。 即使像 Base 上的 $USDC 这样的 L2(二层网络)有大量的 TX(交易)活动，实际上对以太坊代币价格也没有影响。但这确实有助于网络活跃度+采用率。 这是很多人混淆的主要区别。
英文原文
$CRCL does not depend on Ethereum since USDC can be used on $SOL, Arc, and whatever EVM-compatible network you want. Ethereum token burn is now single digits down from few hundred-few thousand consistent burn a year ago. Even if there's tons of TX activity of L2s like $USDC on Base, there's not really any impact on Ethereum token prices. But it does help with network activity + adoption. That's the main difference a lot of people conflate.
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SMCI估值具吸引力，毛利将恢复，适合波段交易。
当然，$SMCI 的市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG) < 0.5，而 $DELL 约为 1.2，尽管 SMCI 的增长速度快 4 倍。 营收同比增长 50%，近期主要下滑是由于积压订单从 Q1 推迟到 Q2，而非流失。他们甚至将营收预测从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 主要问题是毛利率压缩，我认为这是暂时性的，鉴于新的直接租赁(DLC)业务板块和获取新客户（随着规模扩大将提升毛利）。 我认为市场忽视了主权 AI，即其他国家依赖 $SMCI 等原始设备制造商(OEM)进行数据中心部署。其他国家（如马来西亚）可能会带来更高的毛利。 无论如何，低于 0.5 倍市销率(P/S)的 170 亿美元估值看起来很有吸引力。但大部分营收增长来自更昂贵组件的转售，因此需关注毛利率。 简而言之：市场定价反映了悲观情绪 + 会计问题。我认为 $SMCI 已度过会计问题，1 个季度的延迟影响不大 + 毛利应会恢复。因此股价应是很好的波段交易标的，尤其是交易在 1 年低点附近时。
英文原文
Sure, $SMCI trades at PEG <.5, compared to $DELL ~1.2 PEG, despite growing 4x faster. Revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, and the main drop recently was due to backlog delays from Q1 to Q2, not loss. They even increased revenue projections from $33B -> $36B. The main issue was gross margin compression, which I believe is transitory, just given new DLC segments and acquiring new customers (where it will increase at scale). I think markets are missing sovereign AI, where other countries rely on OEMs like $SMCI for DC deployments. And other countries. eg. Malaysia, would likely command higher margins too. Regardless $17B valuation for less than .5 P/S, seems pretty attractive. But a lot of the revenue increase is pass through from more expensive components, so gross margins are the things to watch. TLDR: Markets are pricing in doom and gloom + accounting issues. I believe $SMCI is past that accounting issues, and 1 quarter delay is not too material + margins should recover. So stock price should be a good swing trade especially as it trades near 1Y low.
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看好新云板块多数股票，认为WYFI等估值重置后极具吸引力。
几乎所有新云(Neocloud)板块的股票都是极其坚实的买入标的（也许除了 $SLNH）。$WYFI 算是与 NScale 达成 8.65 亿美元协议的 T2 层级玩家。但其估值已从 40 美元完全重置至 15 美元。因此，它与 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 及其他股票一样，是极具吸引力的买入选择。
英文原文
Almost every Neocloud segment stock is a extremely solid buy (maybe aside from $SLNH) $WYFI is kinda T2 with NScale's $865m agreement. But it's valuation got completely reset from $40 to $15. So it's an extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and the others.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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研究$SHMD，认为其作为$AVGO客户且市值小，具备较大上涨潜力。
@reticulosaurus @retail_mourinho 我仍在研究 $SHMD，但一般来说，如果你拥有 $AVGO 作为客户且市值仅为 3 亿美元，那么上涨空间相当可观。我目前还没有任何明确的方向性观点，仍在深入调研中。
英文原文
@reticulosaurus @retail_mourinho I’m still researching $SHMD but generally if you have $AVGO as a customer and your marketcap is $300m then there’s quite a lot of upside. Don’t have any concrete directional opinions yet, I’m still looking into it
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难以直接投资机器人板块，因多为巨头部门或涉及地缘政治风险。
很难直接投资有趣的机器人公司，因为它们只是 $AMZN、$TSLA、现代 KRX: 005380（波士顿动力）以及你们那些巨头公司的部门。 其他有趣的可能像 $XPEV 这样是外国公司（但我不投资那些推进地缘政治对手军事相关 AI/机器人项目的公司）。 有些像 $RR 这样的公司，但它们远不是我正在关注的垂直领域类型。
英文原文
It's hard to get direct exposure to interesting robotics companies since they're just divisions in $AMZN, $TSLA, Hyundai KRX: 005380 (Boston Dynamics), and your massive companies. Other interesting ones might be foreign like $XPEV (but I don't invest in companies that advance geopolitical enemy AI/Robotic programs that relate to military). There's some like $RR, but they're nowhere close to the types of verticals I'm looking at.
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计划周末深入研究SHMD，看好其受益于玻璃基板生产启动。
@pennycheck 谢谢，这非常有趣。本周末我将深入研究 $SHMD。如果玻璃基板（Glass Substrate）生产周期启动，他们将受益匪浅。
英文原文
@pennycheck Thanks, that's incredibly interesting. I'll take a deeper dive into $SHMD over the weekend. They would benefit a ton from the start of glass substrate production cycles.
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SHMD被视为玻璃基板领域的ASML，需深入研究。
@LucasFdez87 @pennycheck $SHMD 让我想起晶圆制造周期中的 $ASML，但玻璃基板领域也会出现类似情况。据悉，他们提供70%的基板生产设备，并很可能纳入英特尔、三星等公司的路线图。非常有趣，我需要深入研究一下。
英文原文
@LucasFdez87 @pennycheck $SHMD reminds me of $ASML for the Fab cycle, but there's going to be one for glass substrates. Apparently they provide 70% of the equipment for substrate production, and are likely part of Intel, Samsung, and other roadmaps. Very interesting, I need to look into it
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NBIS波动极大，但看好其2026年跑赢大盘并扭转趋势。
$NBIS 目前基本上是一家由 5 家不同公司组成的实体，也是整个市场中波动率（Beta）最高的股票之一。 不过其波动性极大。其同行如 $CRWV 前阵子单日涨幅曾达 24%。 Nebius 在最初达成 $MSFT 交易时单日也曾上涨 40%。且在两周内经历了 100->140->100 的完整轮回。所以波动性极强，绝对不适合心脏脆弱者。 抛开这点，我对 Nebius 在 2026 年跑赢大盘并扭转当前趋势极具信心。这基本上等同于投资一家 FSD 级别的 L4 级自动驾驶出租车公司、一家几乎被所有财富 500 强使用的数据库，以及其他同比增长三位数并将更多利润反哺核心业务的业务板块。
英文原文
$NBIS is basically 5 different companies in 1 at this point and one of the most high-beta stocks in the entire market. Extremely volatile though. It's peers like $CRWV went up 24% in a day the other week off. Nebius also went up 40% in a day on the initial $MSFT deal. And round tripped 100->140 -> 100 all in the span of two weeks. So just extremely volatile and definitely not a stock for the faint of heart. That aside I'm extremely confident in Nebius outperforming in 2026 and reversing current trends. It's basically investing in a FSD-level 4 Robotaxi company, a DB that almost every fortune 500 company uses, and other moving parts growing triple digits Y/Y that derive more profit to the core business.
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分析$PINS高毛利与营收增长，评估研发支出合理性。
我喜欢人们分享他们的高确信度观点。$PINS 很有趣，我完全忘了它的存在。这绝对是一个不错的候选标的，过去6个月下跌了28%。我看好的一点是，他们在季度营收超过10亿美元的情况下，毛利率约为79.8%，且营收同比仍增长16%。仅从高层概览来看：研发(R&D)支出：3.71亿美元；销售与营销(S&M)支出：2.97亿美元；一般及行政(G&A)费用：1.1亿美元。可能还需要花更多时间进行建模，看看那占营收35%的研发支出是否属于浪费性的冗余。但除此之外，2.97亿美元的营销支出是合理的。
英文原文
I love it when people share their high conviction. $PINS is interesting, I completely forgot that existed. Definitely a good candidate, down -28% last 6 months. What I like is that they have ~79.8% gross margins off $1B+ quarterly revenue, and still have 16% Y/Y revenue growth. Just looking at a high-level overview: R&D: $371M Sales & marketing: $297M G&A: $110M Will probably need to spend some more time to do modelling and see if that 35% of revenue on R&D is wasteful bloat. But otherwise the $297M marketing makes sense.
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分析NVDA、SMCI等超跌股数据，认为其均值回归潜力大。
我也可以为 $NVDA 提出看空论点，即超大规模云服务商正在自研 ASIC。但在这种情况下，你要看数据而非叙事，比如英伟达的积压订单(backlog)，简直惊人。 $SMCI 远不及此，这也是它三个月下跌 40% 的原因，但它营收同比(Y/Y)仍增长 50%+，甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 至于 $SNAP，如果你是价值投资者，它被严重低估。Perplexity 交易增加 4 亿美元价值，加上内存变现的净自由现金流(FCF)为 +6.3 亿美元。然而它年初至今仍下跌 25%。 $HIMS 完成了 Zava 收购并拓展欧洲。亚马逊等虽已推出竞品，但我认为 Hims 明年营收同比(Y/Y)仍将增长 20%+，且有回购。它们显然不像 SK 海力士、台积电、Lite-On 等神级股票那样以疯狂速度增长，但超跌+均值回归速度更快，上行空间可能更大。
英文原文
So I can argue the bear case for $NVDA too, that hyperscalers are building their own ASICs. But in cases like these, you look at numbers rather than narrative like, the backlog for Nvidia, it's wild. $SMCI is nowhere close, which is why it's down 40% in 3 months but it's still growing revenue 50%+ Y/Y and even raised FY guidance from $33B to FY $36B. As for $SNAP, it's materially undervalued if you're value investing. Perplexity deal adding $400m in value, then net FCF from memory monetization is +$630M. Yet it's trading 25% down from the start of the year. $HIMS has Zava acqusition and is expanding to Europe. Amazon and others already launched competitors but Hims I think is still growing 20%+ Y/Y into next year and has buybacks. They're obviously not god-tier stocks like Sk Hynix, TSM, Lite, and others just growing at insane rates but this is the point of being over-sold + revert to mean a lot faster. And upside could be higher.
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谷歌股价波动源于情绪反转，预计Marvell也会如此。
@FinansMerak137 @SaItinerant 是的，我在 $GOOGL 跌至 140 美元时做多。基本面实际上没有任何变化，这纯粹是基于对搜索业务措辞解读的情绪反转。 我预计 Marvell 也会随机出现同样的情况。
英文原文
@FinansMerak137 @SaItinerant Yeah I was long $GOOGL on the drop to $140. Literally nothing changed about the business, it was just a sentiment flip just based on how you worded search. I'd probably expect the same with Marvell randomly.
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驳斥分析师误判，强调Marvell在XPU设计上的营收潜力。
是的，很好的笔记。仅这一点就反驳了分析师声称 $MRVL 仅做连接业务，而将实际设计输给 Alchip 等竞争对手的说法。 机构分析师如何散布此类虚假信息，因称 Marvell 仅做连接业务而抹去 $100 亿+市值或 14-20% 的股价，引发机构研报的连锁反应，然后在上周无人关注时又说“只是开玩笑”，这太疯狂了。 “来自 XPU 设计的 2028 财年营收已相当可观”这一点也至关重要。
英文原文
Yeah great note. That alone addresses the analyst claims $MRVL was only doing connectivity while losing the actual design to a competitor like Alchip too. How institutional analysts can spread misinformation like this, wipe off $10B+ or 14-20% in stock price saying DG because of Marvell was only doing connectivity, send cascading narrator through institutional notes, then say “just kidding” when nobody is paying attention a week ago is wild. “There’s meaningful FY 2028 revenue already too from XPU designs” pretty important to read too.
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批评机构误报，认为忽略噪音后MRVL是稳健长线标的。
$POET 通过 Celestial 间接受益于 $MRVL。此外还有大量与 Maia 绑定的其他光子学玩家，如 $AAOI。 但时间线简直荒谬，让我很恼火： 12月8日：Benchmark 下调评级，声称“高度确信”Marvell 输掉了 Trainium 3/4 给 Alchip。 12月9日：股价下跌约10%，CEO 上 CNBC 称“我们没丢失任何业务”。 12月23日：Benchmark 悄悄收回说法。Marvell “保留份额”，Alchip 仅增加“额外设计支持”。 Benchmark 做出此类声明后又在压低股价后悄悄收回，简直不可思议。 The Information 也如法炮制，但他们本就因煽动性报道闻名。 如果你只看数据并忽略新闻报道的噪音，$MRVL 看起来是一个极其稳健的长线标的。
英文原文
$POET indirectly benefits from $MRVL through Celestial. Then there's tons of other photonic players tethered to Maia like $AAOI. The timeline is so stupid though, it makes me annoyed: Dec 8: Benchmark downgrades, claims "high conviction" Marvell lost Trainium 3/4 to Alchip Dec 9: Stock drops ~10%, CEO goes on CNBC saying "we didn't lose any business" Dec 23: Benchmark quietly walks it back. Marvell "retains a position," Alchip added for "additional design support" Just found it insane how Benchmark could make claims like that then silently walk it back after tanking the stock price. Then The Information does the same but they're already known for their sensational journalism. If you just look at the numbers and ignore the noise from news reporting then $MRVL looks like an extremely solid long.
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驳斥MRVL被取代谣言，指出物理限制使其无法短期切换，视抛视为买入良机。
终于深入研究了 $MRVL。 我的第一反应：市场和分析员/新闻到底在抽什么？ 来自 Maia 量产的收入几乎是 $MRVL 2025 财年总收入的两倍。 看数据，这令人震惊： 富邦 (Fubon) 预计 Marvell 仅在 2027 年微软 Maia 量产中就能获得 100-120 亿美元的收入。 作为对比，Marvell 2025 财年收入为 57.7 亿美元。 无论如何看，Marvell 看起来都是博通 (Broadcom) 的强劲竞争对手（在收购 Celestial 之后），也是一个极佳的长线标的。 但是... The Information / Benchmark 发布了新闻称： - 微软正在与博通谈判，以在未来几代产品中取代 Marvell。 - 亚马逊 Trainium 3 和 4 的设计流向了台湾竞争对手 Alchip Technologies。 导致股价大幅抛售。 深入研究后，这怎么可能呢？ “Marvell Technology 股价下跌，因为 Benchmark Equity Research 下调评级， citing 失去亚马逊 AI 芯片业务。” “Benchmark 认为 Marvell 输给了 Alchip，尽管 Marvell 最近预测数据中心增长强劲。” - Trainium 3 的生产已锁定 Marvell 的设计。如果不从头设计全新芯片，你无法“切换”到 Alchip。如果要共享范围，当然可以，但措辞简直糟糕透顶。 $MRVL 已经获得了 $AMZN 整个 2026 年的 Trainium 3 订单，亚马逊为什么要取消所有订单然后选择新供应商？ 可能有不同的范围、额外的设计服务等，但所有新闻的框架听起来像是 $MRVL 被取代了。 Benchmark 自己在造成损害后（通过更多“行业讨论”）大幅收回了说法，称 Marvell 并未完全失去 Trainium 3/4，而是亚马逊增加了 Alchip 作为额外设计支持，而 Marvell 仍保留地位。 但股价已经受损。 至于 The Information 关于 $MSFT Maia 输给博通的报道，这是煽动性新闻。 摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 后来直接出来基本说这是假的，“没有 ASIC 项目份额损失”。 在微软交易上，市场完全错过了“立即取代”和“未来几代”讨论之间的细微差别。 物理规律使得从 Maia 到博通的立即切换不可能，除非有惊人的多年延迟。 现在用博通取代 Marvell 的 Maia 300 需要废弃整个 2nm 掩模集，重新设计 I/O 环，并重启 3 年的验证周期。Marvell 特定的 SerDes IP 也嵌入在芯片的 I/O 环中（重定时器和交换机通信）。如果微软目标是在 2027 年量产 Maia 300，芯片必须在 2026 年中后期进入验证阶段。这意味着物理设计今天已经冻结或接近冻结。 今天（2025 年 12 月）与 $AVGO 的新 ASIC 设计将面临以下最短时间线： - 架构与 RTL（12 个月）：逻辑定义和 IP 选择。 - 物理设计到流片（9-12 个月） - 掩模生产与晶圆厂（3-5 个月）：TSMC 2nm 周期。 - 硅后验证（6-9 个月） 总时间：~30-38 个月。 即使加快几个月，这些“与 $AVGO 的讨论”最早也要到 2028 年才能大规模部署。为了赶上 2027 年的量产时间表，微软必须出货 Marvell 的设计。 此外，微软的机架基础设施使用 Marvell 的“Alaska”重定时器和 DSP 在电缆中。 微软必须： - 重新认证机架中每根电缆和背板的信号完整性。 - 拆下主板上的 Marvell 重定时器并替换为博通版本 还要更改他们的定制液冷机架“sidekick”，这是针对 $MRVL Maia 芯片特定版图分布指定的。$AVGO 芯片会有完全不同的物理版图和热密度，他们需要重新设计机架。 所以当市场计入立即取代风险并基于 TMZ 式的讨论八卦谣言交易时，他们完全是在开玩笑，谣言称微软想探索选项。 $MRVL CEO 甚至出面表示他们手中握有明年全年预测的“采购订单”。2026 年的预测可能偏低，因为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的量产都面临延迟。 但如果你看长期 Q4 2026 到 2027，仅从他们的订单和 Maia 300 来看：即使仅估计 ~200 亿美元收入带来 7.72 美元每股收益，30 倍市盈率（之前交易在 35-40 倍），如果是两年后等待，股价将从 85 美元涨到 231.60 美元/股。 所以 TLDR：整个“取代”理论被极其完全地误解了，只是噪音。通常我不会为此写整篇文章，但看到 The Information 和其他新闻一次又一次出现，通过煽动性措辞传播错误信息，这简直疯了。 中期切换在物理上是不可能的，市场误解了取代。所以最近的抛售看起来是一个坚实的买入机会。 至于未来的讨论，当然任何公司都希望供应商多元化。如果 Meta 想从博通多源采购，$MRVL 也可以对 $META MTAI 未来几代做同样的事。 如果仅按单个项目 Maia 300 建模并忽略媒体噪音，$MRVL 看起来非常有前景。
英文原文
Finally took a deeper look at $MRVL. My first reaction: What are the markets and analysts/news smoking? Revenue derived from Maia ramp is literally double $MRVL's FY 2025 revenue. If we look at the numbers, it's staggering: Marvell is modeled to take in $10-$12B in revenue (Fubon) in Microsoft Maia ramp in 2027. Alone. To put that in perspective, Marvell's FY 2025 revenue was $5.77B. No matter how I look at it, Marvell looks like a strong Broadcom competitor (after Celestial acqusition) and a terrific long. But... The Information / Benchmark released news that: - Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to displace Marvell in future generations. - Amazon Trainium 3 and 4 designs went to Taiwanese competitor Alchip Technologies. causing a massive selloff. After looking into it more, how is this even possible? "Marvell Technology declines after Benchmark Equity Research downgrades the stock, citing a loss of Amazon’s AI chip business." "Benchmark believes Marvell lost Amazon’s Trainium 3 and 4 designs to Alchip, despite Marvell’s recent forecast of strong data-center growth." - Trainium 3 production are locked to Marvell's design. You can't "swap" to Alchip without designing an entirely new chip from scratch. If you want to share scope, sure but the wording is absolutely atrocious. $MRVL already secured Trainium 3 orders from $AMZN throughout 2026, why in the world would Amazon cancel them all and then go with a new vendor? There can be different scope, additional design services, etc. but the framing from all the news sounds like $MRVL is being displaced. Benchmark itself later walked it back materially after causing damage (via more "industry discussions") and said Marvell did not lose Trainium 3/4 outright, but that Amazon added Alchip for additional design support while Marvell retains a position. But the damage has already been done to stock price. As for The Information report on $MSFT Maia loss to Broadcom this is sensational journalism. JP Morgan later literally came out and basically said it's all false, "there has been no ASIC program share loss". On the Microsoft deal, markets completely missed the nuance between "immediate displacement" and "future generation" discussions. The physics of this make an immediate swap impossible from Maia to Broadcom without incredible multiple-year delays. To replace Marvell with Broadcom for the Maia 300 now would require scrapping the entire 2nm mask set, redesigning the I/O ring, and restarting a 3-year validation cycle. Marvell’s specific SerDes Is is also embedded in the chip’s I/O ring (retimers and switches comms). If Microsoft targets a 2027 ramp for Maia 300, the chip must be in validation phase by mid-to-late 2026. This implies the physical design is already frozen or nearing freeze today. A new ASIC design with $AVGO today (Dec 2025) would face this minimum timeline: - Architecture & RTL (12 months): Logic definition and IP selection. - Physical Design to tape ot (9-12 months) - Mask prod & Fab (3-5 months): TSMC 2nm cycle. - Post-Silicon validation (6-9 months) Total Time: ~30–38 months. Even if this is sped up by many months, these "Discussions with $AVGO " not be ready for volume deployment until 2028 at the very earliest. To hit the 2027 ramp timelines, Microsoft must ship the Marvell design. Then there's Microsoft’s rack infrastructure uses Marvell’s "Alaska" retimers and DSPs in the cables. Microsoft would have to: - Re-qualify the signal integrity of every cable and backplane in the rack. - Rip out Marvell retimers from the motherboard and replace them with Broadcom versions As well as change their custom liquid-cooling rack "sidekick", which was specified toward specific distribution of the $MRVL Maia chip’s floorplan. A $AVGO chip would have a completely different physical floorplan and thermal density and they'd need to regineer the rack. So market are completely trolling if when they price in immediate displacement risk and trade on TMZ-style discussion gossip rumors that Microsoft wanted to explore options. $MRVL CEO even went out and said they have "purchase orders in hand" for the entirety of the next year's forecast. 2026 forecasts are probably light because $AMZN and $MSFT both faced delays on their ramp. But if you look at longer term Q4 2026 into 2027, we just from their orders and Maia 300 alone: even just estimating $7.72 EPS from ~$20.0B revenue, 30x P/E (they've traded 35-40 before), would be $231.60/share from $85 if you want to wait 2 years. So TLDR: The whole “replacement” theory is extremely completely misinterpreted and is just noise. Normally, I wouldn't write a whole post on it, but seeing The Information and other news pop up again, and again, spreading misinformation through sensational wording is just crazy. There's a physical impossibility of a mid-cycle swap and market misunderstanding of displacement. So the recent sell-off looks like a solid buying opportunity. As for future discussions, of course any company would want vendor diversification. $MRVL can go do the same with $META MTAI future generations too if Meta wants to multi-source away from Broadcom. If you model just by single project Maia 300 alone and ignore media noise, $MRVL looks incredibly promising.
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认为英伟达因高盈利进入证明阶段
@BitcoinAIGuy 鉴于 $NVDA 的盈利能力，我认为我们正处于“证明它”的阶段，哈哈。
英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy I think we’re a little prove it stage with $NVDA given how profitable they are lol
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论证微软向Iren预付款项的商业逻辑。
@Lazarus_Capital 我召唤 @Agrippa_Inv 作为我的第一只宝可梦，来论证 $MSFT 为 $IREN 超大规模云服务商交易进行预付款的好处。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital I summon @Agrippa_Inv as my first Pokémon to argue benefits of $MSFT prepayment for $IREN hyperscaler deal.
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澄清推文讨论的是IREN微软预付款计算。
@Lazarus_Capital 当然，这条推文具体是在讨论 $IREN 微软预付款的计算。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital Sure, so this one was specifically talking about $IREN Microsoft prepayment calculations.
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因中国出口限制风险，买入AXTI远期看涨期权比持股更安全。
是的，这正是我买入 $AXTI 最远到期日看涨期权(Call Options)的巨大原因。如果存在2027年的行权价，我也会选择。如果中国限制出口，股价可能会被“核爆”式暴跌，此时持有股票可能损失约100万美元，而持有期权仅损失约10万美元。因此，这是极少数情况下看涨期权实际上比股票更安全的时候。
英文原文
Yeah that's a huge reason why I did $AXTI calls furthest date I could go out. I would have done 2027 strikes if they existed. If China restricts exports, it might get nuked, and you would lose like $1M in shares vs $100k in calls. So this is one of the very, very rare times Calls are actually safer then shares.
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IQEPF虽核心但陷债务陷阱，资产出售时股东权益受损。
难道 $IQEPF 也在出售其公司以及台湾子公司吗？ 它处于一个尴尬的境地：对西方市场至关重要，但某种程度上陷入了债务陷阱。在资产出售中，汇丰银行(HSBC)和贷款方会优先获得偿付，而股东则会被牺牲。 就像这是一家极其稳健的公司，但你投资的对象却像是一家面临破产重组的精神航空(Spirit Airlines)类型的公司。
英文原文
Isn't $IQEPF selling their company as well as Taiwan subsidaries? It's in a weird spot where it's pretty critical to Western markets but there's kinda a debt trap. In an asset sale, HSBC and lenders get paid first and shareholders get shafted. Like it's an extremely solid company but the you're investing in some Spirit Airlines bankruptcy type company.
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建议关注或尝试交易 $TBBK。
@TylerDurden 试试 $TBBK 吗？
英文原文
@TylerDurden Trya Banks?
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澄清AXTI风险，探讨InP衬底瓶颈下的估值逻辑。
所以我并不主张买入 $AXTI，因为中国供应链存在重大风险，我只是在澄清一些误解。 如果一只股票“已经涨过了”，重要的是要区分它是否比以往任何时候都便宜，即使在历史高点(ATH)时也是如此。 看看 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)，我上次查的时候即使在历史高点也小于10。 如果磷化铟(InP)衬底价格因为极端瓶颈而像内存一样翻三倍甚至十倍（鉴于它以前被当作廉价的电信商品定价），它是已经涨过了，还是看起来比以往任何时候都便宜？ 如果一家市值7亿美元的小公司现在成了AI增长周期的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)，因为我们已经触及了InP衬底的天花板，你会如何给它估值？500%的涨幅足够吗？
英文原文
So I’m not advocating for buying $AXTI since there’s significant risks with China supply chains but just clearing up misconceptions. If a stock “already-ran” it’s important to differentiate if the stock is cheaper than ever, even at ATHs. Just look at $MU forward p/e which is <10 last I checked even at ATHs. If inp substrate prices triple or even 10X (given it was priced like a cheap commodity for telecom) like memory because of an extreme bottleneck, did it already run or does it look cheaper than ever? If a $700m tiny company is now the single point of failure for the growth-cycle of AI we’ve hit the ceiling of InP substrates, how would you value it? Is a 500% increase enough?
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质疑IQE估值，认为其属困境而非便宜，愿重新评估
@NowAwake_ @VulcanMK5 我上次看的时候，IQE 似乎正在进行资产出售？看起来更像是一家陷入困境的公司，而不是“便宜”。 如果情况有变请告诉我，我会重新审视。
英文原文
@NowAwake_7 @VulcanMK5 Last time I took a look, IQE was going through asset sales? Seemed like a distressed company rather than “cheap”. You can tell me if the story is different and I’ll take another look
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因AI供应链瓶颈逻辑，做多光子股并提示AXTI地缘风险。
披露：我在光子学领域持有 $LITE、$AAOI 和 $AXTI 的头寸。 从我个人的思考过程来看，如果我观察到整个 AI 行业以及像 $LITE 和中际旭创(Innolight)这样的玩家，都被一家市值不足 6 亿美元（甚至低于一家尚未盈利的 LLM 初创公司）的企业所瓶颈制约，我会做多。 下行风险包括：如果中国希望限制 $AXTI 在美国市场，可能会改变其所有权稀释结构。
英文原文
Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector. From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long. There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets.
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看好LITE在ASIC及OCS中的核心地位，以及AAOI在Maia放量中的潜在机会。
@jvthed210725 $LITE 是个人最看好的标的，因为它在每一款 ASIC 中都是核心组件，且在类似 TPU 的光共封装(OCS)架构中，其物料清单(BOM)占比会显著提升。 $AAOI 与 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量呈杠杆关系。根据瑞银(UBS)及其他研究机构的报告，Maia 在 2026-2027 年有望实现百万级以上的出货量爬坡，因此这是一个被低估的潜在机会。
英文原文
@jvthed210725 $LITE is personally my favorite since it’s central to every ASIC + gets much higher BOM share with OCS architectures like TPU. $AAOI is levered Maia and Trainium ramp and we should get Maia 1M+ ramp 2026-2027 as per UBS note + other research firms, so it’s hidden opportunity
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澄清MRVL与LITE为两只不同股票，将另写MRVL论点。
@bricked_trades $MRVL 是一个很好的做多标的，我会单独写一篇关于他们在 Maia 300 中角色的投资论点(Thesis)。 但这篇论点其实是关于 $LITE 的……所以是两只不同的股票。
英文原文
@bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300. This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks.
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某仙股若执行成功，当前定价或低估其在AI集群中的价值。
嗯，不完全是。他们有过执行失败的历史，$AMZN 多年前就将其作为客户剔除。但如果考虑到他们现在手握铜缆到光子学（CPO）的“金票”，以及内存等供应常量，且能在此次成功执行，其当前的仙股定价可能并未计入他们在每个 Trainium 和 Maia 集群中的物料清单（BOM）份额，以及可选的美国磷化铟（InP）晶圆厂。
英文原文
Well not exactly, they have a history of execution failures with $AMZN dropping them as a client many years ago. But if they can execute this time around given their new golden ticket of copper -> photonics and supply constants like memory, their current penny stock pricing probably doesn’t price in their BOM share of every Trainium and Maia cluster they’re a part of + InP fab optionally in US.
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$AAOI 作为 Trainium/Maia 杠杆标的，随微软 ASIC 量产预期重估。
呃，$AAOI 本质上只是 Trainium 和 Maia 的杠杆多头头寸，因为公开信息显示他们不像 $LITE 那样参与 TPU/Blackwell 业务。 Maia 已推迟至 2026 年，量产爬坡可能要到年底并延续至 2027 年。 特别是鉴于传闻 $AAOI 正与微软共同开发新架构，他们很可能会同步扩大规模。 总之，当这两款芯片启动时，我们可能会看到更多相关标的被重新评级。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都想要自己的 ASIC（专用集成电路），这似乎是大势所趋。但关键在于 $AAOI 方面的量产爬坡与执行能力。
英文原文
Uhh $AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia, since they’re not involved in TPU/Blackwell unlike $LITE from public info. Maia was pushed backed to 2026, with ramp up in likely EOY into 2027. Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they’ll likely scale up together. Anyway whenever those two kick into gear, we’ll likely see more things be re-rated. It seems more of an inevitability given every hyperscaler wants their on asic. But main thing is production ramp/execution on the $AAOI side.
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回应批评，重申NBIS长期价值及短期错判逻辑。
批评很中肯。我最初在 $NBIS 86美元时发布观点，即便在125美元我仍会买入。 我未曾预期一家远期年度经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元、同比增长超700%且拥有4家各自增长超100%的子公司企业，市值会暴跌40%至190亿美元。 存在1-3个月的短期定价错误（尤其是受宏观压力、套息交易平仓引发的高贝塔资产抛售及临时信贷收紧影响），但我预计所有高确信度标的在6-12个月内将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
Very fair criticism. I first posted about $NBIS at $86 and would still be buying at $125. I did not expect a $7-9B forward ARR company growing 700%+ Y/Y, with 4 different subsidiary companies each growing 100%+ Y/Y to drop 40% to a $19B MC. There's things that are mispriced 1-3 month short term (especially with larger macro overhang with high-beta asset selloffs from carry trade unwind and temporary credit tightening) but I expect all my high conviction picks to outperform 6-12 months out.
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$AAOI 是 $MSFT/$AMZN ASIC 扩产的高弹性隐藏宝石，具极高不对称收益。
在 $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创等公司中，我发现 $LITE 的不对称性（asymmetrical setup）最强，因为它是 Ironwood（含共封装光学(CPO)）、Blackwell 及其他超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC) 的核心。然而，$AAOI 是极致的超额收益（alpha）。尤其是作为 $AMZN Trainium 和 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产的对冲工具，以及美国少数磷化铟(InP) 晶圆厂之一。尽管拥有 $40 亿 $AMZN 认股权证和采购协议，12 月的订单似乎确实是基于 Maia 的集群。有传闻称 $AAOI 似乎正在为 $MSFT 的硅片开发新的光互连架构。尽管超大规模客户 ASIC 炒作和光子学反弹，$AAOI 股价毫无动静，因此在 $20 亿市值下绝对是隐藏宝石。但它高度依赖于 $MSFT 和 $AMZN（鉴于其云部门，它们很可能成功并大规模部署自有 ASIC）。
英文原文
Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs. However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US. Although they have $4B $AMZN warrants + purchase agreements, it does seem likely that Dec's orders were Maia-based clusters. There's rumors that $AAOI seems to be developing a new optical interconnect architecture specifically for $MSFT's silicon too. $AAOI hasn't moved at all, despite hyperscaler ASIC hype + photonic rallies, so it's a hidden gem for sure at $2B MC. However, it is highly levered to $MSFT and $AMZN (which will likely succeed + deploy their own ASICs at scale given their own cloud departments)
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JPM无需收购交易所，合作即可获利。
可能不会，没有理由这样做。鉴于$JPM提供的巨大做市商流动性，他们几乎肯定能享受0%的交易手续费。他们没有理由去收购一家同质化的交易所，从而承担额外的监管麻烦和资产负债表波动。通过与Coinbase合作获得免费执行，他们就能获得交易所的同等优势，然后通过增加一个垂直业务来赚取客户价差利润。
英文原文
Probably not, no reason to. $JPM almost certainty has access to 0% fees for trading given their immense maker liquidity they provide. There's no reason for them to acquire a commoditized exchange, then take on additional regulatory headache and balance sheet volatility. They get the same benefits of an exchange by partnering with Coinbase for free execution, then just profit off customer spread with an additional vertical.
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分析LITE、COHR光子学双寡头地位及AAOI对微软亚马逊ASIC的杠杆看涨逻辑。
我手里只有 $LITE 和 $AAOI 哈哈。但我对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的看法是，它们在光子学(Photonics)领域基本处于双寡头地位。其中 $LITE 额外受益于 Google TPU 的增长杠杆。然后是 $AAOI，它具有极高的超额收益(Alpha)潜力，且是对 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 超大规模云计算厂商专用集成电路(ASIC)的杠杆式看涨押注。目前尚未有行动，也没有大幅上涨（尽管作为光子学玩家，今年反而下跌了12%），因为市场尚未对 Amazon Trainium 或 Microsoft Maia 产生炒作热度。
英文原文
I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics. With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth. Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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推荐光子材料供应商AXTI，市值5亿美元。
@manukafirth 另一个不错的标的是 $AXTI，它是 $LITE / 光子学(Photonics) 的材料供应商。市值5亿美元。
英文原文
@manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.