· 个股论点
所以我并不主张买入 $AXTI，因为中国供应链存在重大风险，我只是在澄清一些误解。 如果一只股票“已经涨过了”，重要的是要区分它是否比以往任何时候都便宜，即使在历史高点(ATH)时也是如此。 看看 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)，我上次查的时候即使在历史高点也小于10。 如果磷化铟(InP)衬底价格因为极端瓶颈而像内存一样翻三倍甚至十倍（鉴于它以前被当作廉价的电信商品定价），它是已经涨过了，还是看起来比以往任何时候都便宜？ 如果一家市值7亿美元的小公司现在成了AI增长周期的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)，因为我们已经触及了InP衬底的天花板，你会如何给它估值？500%的涨幅足够吗？
So I’m not advocating for buying $AXTI since there’s significant risks with China supply chains but just clearing up misconceptions. If a stock “already-ran” it’s important to differentiate if the stock is cheaper than ever, even at ATHs. Just look at $MU forward p/e which is <10 last I checked even at ATHs. If inp substrate prices triple or even 10X (given it was priced like a cheap commodity for telecom) like memory because of an extreme bottleneck, did it already run or does it look cheaper than ever? If a $700m tiny company is now the single point of failure for the growth-cycle of AI we’ve hit the ceiling of InP substrates, how would you value it? Is a 500% increase enough?