· 个股论点
涉及标的： $AMZN$AVGO$COHR$GOOGL$LITE$MSFT$NVDA
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.