· 个股论点
当然，$SMCI 的市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG) < 0.5，而 $DELL 约为 1.2，尽管 SMCI 的增长速度快 4 倍。 营收同比增长 50%，近期主要下滑是由于积压订单从 Q1 推迟到 Q2，而非流失。他们甚至将营收预测从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 主要问题是毛利率压缩，我认为这是暂时性的，鉴于新的直接租赁(DLC)业务板块和获取新客户（随着规模扩大将提升毛利）。 我认为市场忽视了主权 AI，即其他国家依赖 $SMCI 等原始设备制造商(OEM)进行数据中心部署。其他国家（如马来西亚）可能会带来更高的毛利。 无论如何，低于 0.5 倍市销率(P/S)的 170 亿美元估值看起来很有吸引力。但大部分营收增长来自更昂贵组件的转售，因此需关注毛利率。 简而言之：市场定价反映了悲观情绪 + 会计问题。我认为 $SMCI 已度过会计问题，1 个季度的延迟影响不大 + 毛利应会恢复。因此股价应是很好的波段交易标的，尤其是交易在 1 年低点附近时。
Sure, $SMCI trades at PEG <.5, compared to $DELL ~1.2 PEG, despite growing 4x faster. Revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, and the main drop recently was due to backlog delays from Q1 to Q2, not loss. They even increased revenue projections from $33B -> $36B. The main issue was gross margin compression, which I believe is transitory, just given new DLC segments and acquiring new customers (where it will increase at scale). I think markets are missing sovereign AI, where other countries rely on OEMs like $SMCI for DC deployments. And other countries. eg. Malaysia, would likely command higher margins too. Regardless $17B valuation for less than .5 P/S, seems pretty attractive. But a lot of the revenue increase is pass through from more expensive components, so gross margins are the things to watch. TLDR: Markets are pricing in doom and gloom + accounting issues. I believe $SMCI is past that accounting issues, and 1 quarter delay is not too material + margins should recover. So stock price should be a good swing trade especially as it trades near 1Y low.