供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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认为不是所有卡点都适合买入，AAOI 的收入弹性更强。
是的，从技术角度这样理解很棒。 一只股票是不是好长仓，维度非常多。 我之前也看过 $HIMX，如果它真能转化成实质收入，我也许会做多，但最后没有下场。 对 $AAOI 我则非常有信心，因为它的收入预测会在一个巨大的光模块 TAM 里上升。 我不同意很多选票，最后走的是另一条路。不是所有不那么出名的瓶颈点都适合做长仓。
英文原文
Yes that's a great way to approach it from the tech angle. Whether something is a great long, is extremely multifaceted. I was also looking at $HIMX if it translated into material revenue as well and decided not to take a long position. $AAOI I have high conviction on given revenue projections ramp in a massive TAM for optical transceivers. Disagree with many picks and went the other way. Not all lesser known chokepoints make great longs.
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惊讶 SIVE 作为 POET 的激光供应商估值只有当时的 1/9。
@FrostByte123456 我不是说我不喜欢 $POET。 我只是很惊讶，你当时把 $POET 的激光供应商 $SIVE 估值，放在了 1/9 的位置。
英文原文
@FrostByte123456 Not saying I don't like $POET. I'm just very surprised you have the laser supplier to $POET in $SIVE at 1/9th the valuation at the time.
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把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
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Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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说有一家基金做空整个流通盘 2%，反而让自己买了更多 SIVE。
@Ren_aramb 有家随机的基金把整个流通盘做空了 2%，所以最近的下跌大概就是因此来的。 结果我好像反而又买了更多 $SIVE。 Qube 大概就是算法交易吧，我觉得他们还没意识到这后面会映射到超大规模云厂商的供应链。 https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
英文原文
@Ren_aramb There's some random firm that shorted 2% of the entire float, hence the recent drop. Ended up just acquiring more of $SIVE as a company off of it I guess. Qube probably algorithmic, don't think they realized upcoming supply chain mapping to hyperscalers yet. https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
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说 SIVE 市值便宜到自己都想直接收购公司。
@Jornka329996 它当时市值便宜得离谱……我都意识到自己干脆可以把公司直接收了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 It got so cheap marketcap wise... that I realized I could just acquire the company lol.
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认为 SIVE 在中游超大规模云供应链上执行正常，且自己愿意加入一些需要帮助的董事会。
@miraclemaster07 $SIVE 目前在中游超大规模云厂供应商这条线上执行得挺好。 只是大家还不知道这个名字。 我也愿意去加入 $IQE、$SNAP、$PYPL 的董事会，因为那些公司真的很需要帮助，但它们到底该做什么其实已经很明显了。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 $SIVE is executing fine right now with all the midstream hyperscaler suppliers. People just don't know about the name yet. Happy to join $IQE, $SNAP, $PYPL boards because those really need help but it's painfully obvious what they need to do.
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说自己更偏好大盘配置，但对 SIVE 的 CW DWB 激光扩张仍有信心。
@joyboydonepiece 对小票分配太多，我一般不推荐——这其实是个聪明的策略。 我个人为了风险管理，也大多把仓位集中在大一些的名字上。 不过我确实相信自己在 $SIVE 上是对的，尤其是它和 Win semi 一起做 CW DWB 激光扩产这件事。
英文原文
@joyboydonepiece Yeah I don't recommend allocating much to smaller names in general, that's a smart strategy. I personally hold most of my concentration in larger names for risk-management too. However, I do believe I'm right with $SIVE with their CW DWB laser scale up with Win semi.
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正式买入 0.5%-1% 的 SIVE，认为其 CW 激光瓶颈被严重低估。
我刚刚买了大约 $SIVE 公司本身 0.5% 到 1% 的股份。 我说过，他们未来在 CW 激光上的瓶颈被严重低估了，所以我也用实际行动证明了我的观点。 尤其是它已经被确认为 Jabil、$MRVL Celestial、O-Net 以及其他超大规模云厂商的光源供应商。 https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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I just bought ~.5%-1% of $SIVE as a company. I said their future CW laser chokepoint is grossly mispriced. And I put my money where my mouth is. Especially when they're the confirmed light source for Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, O-Net, and other hyperscalers. https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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说对单发激光器与 WDM 的结论搞错了。
@innovavest 他在关于单发射激光器以及 $LITE 和 $SIVE 的 WDM 这个结论上搞错了。
英文原文
@innovavest He got the conclusion wrong regarding single emitter lasers with $LITE and $SIVE WDM.
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认为资源错配、伊朗局势和供应链混乱会让能源与军工受益。
结果发现……我们其实什么牌都没有。 -> $SPY 指数跌了 5% -> $HOOD 和 $RDDT 这些个股跌得更惨，超过 40% -> 机器人或 AI 所需的稀土供应链乱成一团 -> 我们正在和供应重要材料的盟友加拿大和欧洲闹别扭（提示：美国对很多这些材料根本没有国内精炼能力） -> 伊朗局势现在一团糟 -> 最大受益者是石油公司和战争承包商 -> 俄罗斯因为石油制裁被解除而高兴 -> 超大规模云厂商把全部储备都砸进 AI CapEx，而中国则从蒸馏技术里拿走了所有好处（没有 KYC 终端） -> 财富差距继续扩大，大家都在 paycheck to paycheck 地活着，而且随着 AI 冲击就业，大规模裁员很可能会发生 然后作为副线任务，家里的一些人靠 memecoin 发币赚钱，再把整个行业卖给大银行。 在我们可能开始对伊朗进行地面入侵之前，能不能先把供应链和前沿技术保住？ 我永远会看多美国，但这是我见过最蠢的一连串决策之一。 到底在发生什么？
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Turns out… we had no cards after all. -> Indexes from $SPY are down -5% -> Individual stocks from $HOOD and $RDDT are down worse 40%+ -> Rare earths supply chains needed for robotics or AI are a mess. -> We’re fighting with our allies from Canada and Europe that supply us with all the important materials for frontier supply chains (hint: America has no domestic refineries for many of these) -> Iran situation is now a mess -> Main beneficiaries are Oil companies and War contractors -> Russia is happy from Oil sanctions being lifted -> Hyperscalers are pouring all their reserves into AI capex, with China reaping all the benefits from distillation. (No KYC endpoints) -> Wealth gap keeps increasing, people living paycheck to paychecks, and mass layoffs are likely to happen as AI disrupts jobs. Then as a side quest, people in the family are enriching themselves through memecoin launches then selling the industry out to big banks. Can we at least secure our supply chains and frontier technologies first before we likely start a ground invasion of Iran? I’ll always be bullish on America but these are some of these dumbest series of decisions I’ve seen. WTF is even happening?
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认为 IQE 处于困境但有价值，可能会被 LITE 或 Landmark 收购。
@rGeQM1SvLq29316 @Blinklebloop $IQE 的确已经陷入困境，但它其实拥有最高的内在价值。就像 $IREN 的 GW 产能来自比特币挖矿一样。只需要把业务改造成 InP 再重组就行。 我非常确定 $LITE 或 Landmark 会有兴趣收购这家公司。
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@rGeQM1SvLq29316 @Blinklebloop $IQE is legitimately in distress but has the highest amount of inherent value (like $IREN GW capacity from Bitcoin mining. Just need to refactor to InP and restructure. I’m very sure $LITE or Landmark are interested in buying the company
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认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
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@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
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批评David Sacks担任加密货币沙皇期间的政策反而将行业控制权拱手让给银行，造成行业血洗。
能不能有人诚实地告诉我，大卫·萨克斯"沙皇"这个职位的成就是什么？ >数十亿美元的流动性从比特币、以太坊和山寨币被抽走，流入了Trump Coin和Melania Coin >GENIUS Act（天才法案）通过，禁止稳定币发行商（如$CRCL和Tether）支付利息，因为它们会与银行竞争 >试图推动立法，通过Clarity Act（清晰法案）将加密货币咽喉要道的所有控制权交给银行 >试图通过Clarity Act禁止稳定币相关的第三方提供收益 >试图禁止非美元计价稳定币如DAI（造成流动性流失） >银行仍然不接入加密货币公司，甚至会禁止你注册。 >美国实际上只有少数几家愿意这样做，比如Cross River或Customers Bank？ >我们选举他时希望实现的目标一个都没完成，除了给加密货币公司"提供选项"去申请银行牌照。 >但只有与政府关系密切的人获得了豁免，比如Anduril的创始人？真正的加密货币公司一个都没有？ >现在大银行很快将掌控所有主要咽喉要道？ >这是加密货币行业史上最大规模的财富转移和血洗。 >甚至以太坊在Gary Gensler任职期间还更高。
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Can someone tell me honestly what the accomplishments of David Sacks “Tzar" position was? > Billions of Liquidity drained from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins into Trump Coin and Melania Coin > GENIUS Act passed and banned stablecoin issuers (like $CRCL and Tether) from paying interest, which would compete vs Banks > Attempted to push through legislation that would hand all control over Crypto chokepoints over to banks through Clarity Act. > Attempted to ban Stablecoin related 3rd parties from giving yields through the Clarity Act > Attempted to ban non-USD denominated stablecoins like DAI (liquidity drain). > Banks still don't onboard crypto companies and will ban you from onboarding. > There's literally only a few in the US that do like Cross River or Customers Bank? Nothing that we elected him for was accomplished aside from Crypto companies having the "option" to apply for Banking Charters. But only people close to the administration like Andruil’s founder got a pass? Not any actual crypto companies? And now big Banks will have all the major chokepoints soon? This was the biggest transfer of wealth and bloodbaths in the crypto industry to date. Even Ethereum is higher when Gary Genseler was in office.
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说自己做多 Win Semi 只是因为沿途梗很多。
@ram_blings 我之所以做多 Win Semi，是因为一路上的梗实在太多了，更新起来会很好玩。
英文原文
@ram_blings I went long on Win Semi because there's too many puns I can make with updates along the way up.
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认为 2.9 亿市值放在 MRVL、JBL 和超大规模云流量链条里，等待 CPO 放量就好。
@Johnyom8 一家 2.9 亿美元市值的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL、$JBL 和超大规模云厂流量链条里。 我不觉得自己判断错了，CPO 的放量路径就是这样演化的。 这只是等量放大的问题。
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@Johnyom8 $290m MC for a company designed into $MRVL, $JBL and hyperscaler flows. I don't think I'm wrong seeing how CPO scale up evolves. Just a waiting game for volume ramp.
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用 AMD 作为类比，认为 SIVE 的上游光源瓶颈会被市场低估。
回想 AMD 还是 3 美元一股的时候： 当时行业共识是，INTC 会把它留着，只是为了所谓的“垄断”目的，所以它不会被颠覆。 结果 AMD 最后涨了 66 倍，现在市值已经 3300 亿美元以上。 我在 $SIVE 身上也看到同样的东西。 你拿 140 亿美元市值的 Furukawa、190 亿的 $MTSI、550 亿的 $LITE 来比，说它们在位置上比 $SIVE 更好。 但市场实际上已经把这些差异充分体现在市值里了。 很多人没看懂的是：你面前有一家 3 亿美元出头的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL 的被动超大规模云供应链里。 再往下像 Ayar -> $JBL 这样的链条也是一样。 在 3 亿美元市值下，$SIVE 的上行空间巨大，而且风险已经被市场体现得很充分。
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Back when $AMD was $3 a share: The industry consensus was $INTC was keeping them around just for "monopoly" purposes and they wouldn't be disrupted. $AMD went up 66 times and is now a $330B+ MC. Seeing the same thing with $SIVE. You're comparing $14B companies like Furukawa, $19B with $MTSI, $55B with $LITE and saying they have a better position than $SIVE. It's clearly reflected in the marketcap already. What people misunderstand is that you have a $300m company already designed into captive hyperscaler supply chains in $MRVL. Then ones like Ayar -> $JBL... At a $300m MC. Upside on $SIVE is enormous here, and the risk is reflected in the MC.
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分析 $SIVE 在光子学 CPO CW WDM 供应链中的关键地位，估值 $3 亿相对 $LITE 的 $550 亿市值极具不对称优势。
"没有 Win（赢家）就拼不出 Winner（胜利者）。" "因此：我看多 $SIVE 供应链。" "$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> 超大规模数据中心，作为一个整体流程。" "如果你对比同样处于共封装光学(CPO) CW WDM 领域的 $LITE 等公司。" "原因如下：" "-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial。" "-> Ayar / $JBL 和 O-Net 使用 $SIVE。" "它被设计为超大规模数据中心下一代光子学架构的光源。" "估值约 $3 亿。" "而且我确实认为 WDM DFB 阵列是规模扩展(scale up)的优选架构。且开发难度极高。" "这不是零和博弈的架构之争，如何处理规模扩展(scale out)很可能会与使用单发射器的 $LITE 和 $COHR 分工合作。" "以及像 $MRVL 这样有内部供应链的厂商如何设计他们的架构。" "但如果你比较市值差异（$SIVE 约 $3 亿，$LITE 约 $550 亿）。" "任何人都能看清这个光子学领域 $3.3 亿美元即将到来的颠覆者 $SIVE 价值有多明显。" "尤其是 Win Semi 斥资 $40 亿的晶圆厂承接了来自 $SIVE、$AVGO、$MTSI 等客户的 fabless 激光器规模化生产。" "对于做多这条供应链以及光子学和超大规模数据中心架构发展方向来说，这是高度非对称性的机会。
英文原文
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
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提到 AXTI 在 Northland 注资后大概 7.5 亿估值。
@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 对 $AXTI 来说，在 Northland 砸了 1 亿美元、而我的 thesis 落地之后，它大概就到了 7.5 亿美元左右。
英文原文
@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 For $AXTI it was around $750m after Northland put in $100m after my thesis.
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说 SIVE 之前没人知道，且没过很多美国 PE 机构门槛。
@Jornka329996 以前根本没人知道它。 而且 $SIVE 当时也没达到很多美国私募股权机构要求的市值 / 成交量 / 上市门槛。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 Nobody knew about it. And $SIVE didn’t pass the MC/volume/listing threshold for a lot of US p/e firms
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纠正对规格的误读，强调不同光子架构的差异。
规格判断是对的，但结论错了。 65mw 是单通道功率，不是总功率，所以当你有 16 个阵列通道时，总功率就超过 1000mw 了。 Ayar / Sive 做的是 WDM，本质上是用多波长阵列，而不是像 $LITE 那样用一个高功率方案。$POET 也是为不同架构设计的，不是单发射器激光器那种。 本质上就是不同架构，所以中游超大规模云供应商才会用 Sivers。
英文原文
Correct on specs. Conclusion is wrong. 65mw is per channel not aggregate, so when you get 16 array channel it’s over 1000 mw. Ayar/Sive does WDM, basically using multi wavelength arrays rather than one high power one like lite. Same with poet designed for instead of single emitter lasers. Just different architectures hence why midstream hyperscaler suppliers use sivers.
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看好 Win Semi，认为它未来两年可能像 TSEM 一样被重估。
@norriswalker Claude 说得对，Win 确实很能打。 我觉得 Win 在接下来两年里可能像 $TSEM 一样，被市场狠狠重估。
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@norriswalker Claude is right, Win does slap. I think Win can pull a $TSEM and get re-rated rlly hard over next two years
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说自己用 IBKR 交易 SIVE 和 Win 等公司。
@buht 我用 $IBKR 来交易像 $SIVE 或 WIN 这样的公司。
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@buht $IBKR for companies I mention like $SIVE or WIN
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认为 Win Semi 会像 TSEM 一样慢慢复利，并受益于 TAM 和光模块收入加速。
@Ren_aramb 其实也不用太急。我预计 Win Semi 会像 $TSEM 那样，成为一个慢慢复利的成长公司，既受 TAM 扩张也受光学收入加速推动。
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@Ren_aramb There’s probably no rush. I expect Win Semi to be a slower compound growth company like $TSEM that benefits from both TAM expansion and revenue acceleration from optical.
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认为 SIVE 和 AAOI 可能还会继续跌，但如果 ATM 结束会重估。
@Jornka329996 可能是 $SIVE，因为现在跌了 22% 后市值只剩 3.3 亿美元了。 如果 $AAOI 的 2.5 亿美元 ATM 已经结束，也可能是它。
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@Jornka329996 Probably $SIVE since it’s now only $330m after dropping 22%. Maybe $AAOI too, assuming their $250m ATM finished
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说 LITE、AAOI 这类票若先前涨多，遇到宏观回撤时跌得更痛。
@BabyYod59296514 是啊，如果像 $LITE 或 $AAOI 这种票先涨很多，那么遇到宏观抛售时，回撤会更痛一点。 今天像 Coherent 这种低 beta 的名字都被打到 -8% 左右，也挺让人意外的。
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@BabyYod59296514 Yeah, if names like $LITE or $AAOI run up a lot, corrections timed with macro selloffs hit a tad harder. Surprised lower beta names like $COHR got hit -8% or so today.
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光子学全面回撤，但认为这类回撤常是筹码交换时刻，前提是别加杠杆。
光子学现在一点都不好玩。 激光公司里： $LITE、$SIVE、$COHR、$MTSI、$AAOI 全都在跌。 衬底、晶圆厂和外延片公司里： $IQE、$AXTI、$SOI、$TSEM 也全都在跌。 几乎全是红的。 从低 beta 的 Coherent 只有 6% 的跌幅，一直到 22% 都有。 这次最该学到的教训是： 拥抱波动，不要用杠杆。 一只票如果一天能涨 25%，今天也可能跌 20%。 由宏观驱动的流动性真空和止损，会造成非常剧烈的波动。 不过，如果像 $LITE 和 $COHR 这样的公司都已经卖断货到 2028 年…… 或者如果你知道 $SIVE 会是下一个 CW 激光受益者，市值大约只有 3.4 亿美元，而 $AXTI 会变成衬底瓶颈。 那么这类宏观砸盘，往往也是让有能力重新布局的人换手的机会。
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Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
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说自己不是交易，只是低价持有 LITE 供应链瓶颈的想法。
@technicalanysis 我已经说明过，我觉得在 $LITE 的 OCS 供应链里，以极低估值持有一个潜在瓶颈位置会挺有意思。 但我根本没在交易它。任何价格波动都不受我控制。
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@technicalanysis I've disclosed I thought it would amusing to own a potential chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain for extremely cheap valuations. But I'm not trading it at all. Any price movement is out of my hands.
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看好玻璃基板供应商 P4O，认为其在 LITE 和 COHR 供应链中有位置。
关于 $P4O 的无端猜测很多。 它是一家纯玻璃基板供应商，很可能会进入 $LITE 的 OCS 供应链。 而且他们也向三星供货，未来还有可能映射到 $COHR。 我喜欢分析超大规模云厂商的上游供应链。 我既不能控制算法/市场对我提到的任何东西如何反应，也绝不会去交易波动率。
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Lot of uninvited speculation about $P4O. It's a pure-play glass substrate supplier, likely to $LITE OCS supply chains. And they supply to Samsung with potential mapping to $COHR. I like to analyze hyperscaler upstream supply chains. I don't control how the algos/markets react to anything I mention, and I certainly don't trade volatility.
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分析光收发器PCB供应链瓶颈受益公司，认为激光器瓶颈更具吸引力
所以如果你们关心EML/CW激光器之外的第二个光收发器(optical transceiver)瓶颈： - $SANM（美国） - $TTMI（美国） - WUS Printed Circuit（证交所代码:2316） - Unimicron（证交所代码:3037） - Zhen Ding Tech（证交所代码:4958） - Gold Circuit Electronics（证交所代码:2368） 这些公司是光收发器PCB瓶颈的赢家。 还有一些下游玩家如FIC Global也受益，不过他们更多是做组装而非晶圆厂。 其他公司如Unimicron规模太大，还有ABF基板等其他业务板块，可能感受不到太大差异。 美国公司的机会主要来自供应链回流美国，虽然中国和台湾玩家是主要受益者。 $AVGO的表述： “台湾和中国的PCB供应商都面临产能限制，导致了延迟，”Ramachandran说，但没有点名具体供应商。 我目前没有任何这些股票的多头仓位。 我可能是错的，但我认为激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$MTSI、$COHR、Sumitomo）在光学供应链中对结构性重新定价更有吸引力。
英文原文
So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers: - $SANM (US) - $TTMI (US) - WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316) - Unimicron (TPE: 3037) - Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958) - Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368) Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck. There's some downstream players like FIC Global that benefits, not so much as a Fab but assembly. Others like Unimicron are likely too large with other segments like ABF substrates to feel much of a difference. US plays are more-so from reshoring to US supply chains, even though Chinese and Taiwanese players were main beneficaries. $AVGO quote: "Both Taiwanese and Chinese PCB suppliers are facing capacity limits, contributing to the delays, Ramachandran said, without naming the suppliers." I have no open long positions in any of these right now. I could be wrong, but I felt laser chokepoints ( $LITE, $SIVE, $MTSI, $COHR, Sumitomo) in optical supply chains to be much more compelling for structural re-rating.