供应链分析

产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    把 SIVE 的市值与其下游同业对比,认为短中期还有 2-3B 空间。

    @tim_pscl 2-3 亿美元的短期目标放在 $SIVE 上,只是把它和购买其激光器再重新封装的对手公司相比,而那些对手市值已经在 10 亿到 38 亿美元以上。 如果你再看 CW 激光供应商,全球真正公开交易、能做这件事的也就只有几家。

    英文原文

    @tim_pscl $2-3B short term on $SIVE, just comparing it to counterparties that buy their lasers and repackage it at $1B-$3.8B+ Then if you look at CW laser suppliers, there's only a few in the world publicly traded that can do this.

  2. 指出光子/材料/代工名字普遍在跑赢,而指数其实仍然在跌。

    @Alex__0x0 是啊,从 $AAOI、$LITE、$MTSI、$TSEM、$COHR、$AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、Landmark 等这些名字到其他标的,都在明显跑赢! 有时候你会忘了,其实指数年初至今还跌了 4%。

    英文原文

    @Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!. Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD.

  3. 供应链分析 $SIVE$TSEM$MRVL$MTSI$LITE$AVGO

    认为机构还没充分认识 SIVE 的上游激光瓶颈价值,可能在悄悄吸筹。

    $SIVE 这个大约 4 亿美元市值的名字,我是真心相信的…… 机构错过了它作为超大规模云厂商上游激光瓶颈的价值。 看 $TSEM 按我的 thesis 走出来后,股价涨了 70%,市值到了 210 亿美元以上。 散户流不会把 NASDAQ 股票推高 100 多亿美元。 真正做到这一点的是信息发现和信息整合,尤其是在机构也验证并跟进之后。 $SIVE 以前大部分由瑞典散户持有,几乎没有机构投资者。 现在,关于 $MRVL、Ayar、Jabil、O-Net 的上游 CW 激光供应商的信息已经传播开来。 而且最近 $AVGO 和其他一些评论也明确说激光器是供应链里的明确瓶颈: 我强烈认为,机构正在用冰山单、VWAP 算法,或者其他任何方式,从瑞典散户手里吸筹,以便吃到即将到来的 CW 激光瓶颈。 再说一次,最接近 $SIVE 的对标是: $MTSI 和 $LITE,它们市值分别是 180 亿和 550 亿美元。 Sivers 的市值大约只有 4 亿美元。 在光子供应链发生架构范式转变的时候: 我觉得散户难得有机会去抢在机构前面布局 $SIVE,并重仓配置即将到来的 CW / EML 激光瓶颈。

    英文原文

    $SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe... Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers. When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC. Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+. Information discovery and synthesis does. Especially when institutions validate it, and follow along. $SIVE was majority owned by Sweden retail investors, with **almost 0 institutional investors**. Now that information is distributed regarding the Upstream CW laser supplier for $MRVL, Ayar, Jabil, O-Net. And with $AVGO + other comments recently stating lasers were a clear bottleneck for supply chains: I strongly think that institutions are trying to accumulate off Swedish retail hands through Iceberg orders, vwap algos, or any other methods to gain exposure to the upcoming CW laser bottleneck. Again, the closest comparison to $SIVE are: $MTSI and $LITE, both at $18B and $55B MCs. Sivers trades at ~$400m MC. With architectural paradigm shifts in photonic supply chains: I think retail has a rare opportunity to frontrun institutions with $SIVE and have heavy exposure to the upcoming CW/EML laser bottleneck.

  4. 供应链分析 $SIVE$NVDA$POET$MRVL

    解释 SIVE 大涨的真正催化来自会议确认和光源瓶颈,而不是一条 X 帖子。

    所以有深度投资者(像你们),也有交易员(像我)。 投资者往往忽略的是,究竟是什么让像 $SIVE 这样的股票上涨。 对我来说,我把时间点卡在 $NVDA GTC 和 OFC 大会附近,因为 Nvidia 推进 CPO 架构大概率会有新消息。 这波抛物线式上涨的原因是: -> $SIVE 被确认是 O-Net 的光源。 -> $SIVE 又在 OFC 上被确认是 Jabil 的光源。 这些才是我那篇 thesis 发出后最大的催化。 它本来就已经很不对称了,因为还有 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial,以及 Ayar 这一层。 而 Jabil 的可插拔公告正好又和我做多的时间点重合,只是锦上添花。 这不是“发一条 X 帖子,股票就涨 300%”那么简单,事情没那么运作。

    英文原文

    So there's deep investors (like you), then there's traders (like myself). What investors miss is what causes a stock like $SIVE to go up. For me, I timed it around $NVDA GTC + OFC conference, since there's likely new news around Nvidia pushing CPO architectures. The reason for the parabolic rise is: -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to O-Net. -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to Jabil at OFC. These were the biggest catalysts after my thesis post was announced. It was already asymmetrical due to $POET -> $MRVL Celestial as well as Ayar. But the Jabil plugabble announcement timed with me going long is a cherry on top. It's not just an "X post, stock goes up 300%", doesn't work like that.

  5. 供应链分析 $SOI$AAOI

    认为 SOI 估值重估较慢,但硅光CPO 放量会带来上行。

    @excu4e16421 $SOI 的重估速度比 $AAOI 慢,但我觉得它已经接近旧业务拖累周期的底部,而且它们提供的衬底会从硅光 / CPO 放量中受益。 一年后也许能有 2.5 倍,这其实已经很好了,不是每只票都能三个月翻三倍。

    英文原文

    @excu4e16421 $SOI is slow rerating compared to $AAOI but I do think it’s the bottom of their legacy drag cycle but they get upside from silicon photonics/cpo ramp up with the substrates they provide. Maybe 2.5x in a years time (which is still good, not everything triples in 3 months)

  6. 供应链分析 $SIVE$JBL$MRVL

    认为 SIVE 是光学激光瓶颈的最高暴露标的,已经是多家供应商的 CW 光源。

    @NBA_GSW_30 我真的很喜欢 $SIVE,它是光学激光瓶颈里最有暴露度的标的! 它们已经是 Jabil、Ayar、Marvell Celestial、O-Net 等很多供应商的 CW 光源。 而且我觉得这家公司还有很长的路要走。

    英文原文

    @NBA_GSW_30 I really like $SIVE as the highest exposure to the optical laser bottleneck! They’re already the CW light source for many suppliers like Jabil, Ayar, Marvell Celestial, O-Net. And I think the company has a long way to go

  7. 供应链分析 $LITE$COHR$TSEM

    认为光子学并非纯投机,超大规模客户订单已排到 2028。

    我不会说这只是投机。超大规模云厂商从 $LITE 到 $COHR 的订单都已经排到 2028 年了。 就连 $TSEM 也有 70% 的产能被预订,而且它 2028 年的前瞻市盈率也才大约 20 倍。 CW / CPO光子学来说更像是投机部分,而不是可插拔光模块周期本身。可相比存储 / GPU,它其实也算合理。 不过我觉得大家现在盯的光子瓶颈右边,像 PCB 之类,挺有意思的。

    英文原文

    I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR. Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028. CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, makes snse. But think everyones looking at photonics bottlenecks right low like pcb, which is funny

  8. 供应链分析 $VPG$TSLA

    持有 VPG 作为 TSLA Optimus 传感器供给的一部分,但不确定是否会被中国伙伴替代。

    @throughthetape 我持有 $VPG,因为这曾经是我做 Tesla Optimus 的多头标的。 不过,我也不能 100% 确定它们是不是已经被中国合作伙伴在量产放大时设计绕开了…… 但这段话看起来又像是它们仍然是关键供应商?真的很难完全确定。

    英文原文

    @throughthetape I have a position in $VPG since this was my $TSLA Optimus long. But, I'm not 100% sure if they got designed out or not by Chinese partners for mass production ramp... However, this statement makes it sound like they're still a critical supplier? Really hard to know for sure.

  9. 供应链分析 $VPG$TSLA

    把 VPG 视作 Tesla Optimus 传感器供应链的一环,并引用机器人量产目标。

    我很久没再聊 $VPG 了。 这曾经是我看 Tesla Optimus 放量的一个传感器标的。 本周 Sidoti 大会上有个非常重要的线索: “到 2026 年底前,每周有可能扩产到几百台机器人。” 这听起来是不是很像 Optimus? 如果按他们 CEO 那句“每台机器人 500 到 1200 美元”的说法来看:也不差。 但当然,很多机器人供应链在真正的人形机器人大规模拐点出现之前,基本都还是死钱。 也许 Unitree IPO 会让机器人供应链稍微活跃起来。

    英文原文

    Been awhile since I covered $VPG. This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp. Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference: "Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026." Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No? If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby. But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits. Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?

  10. 供应链分析 $P4O$LITE$COHR

    认为 P4O 作为玻璃供应商在 LITE/COHR 供应链里有策略价值。

    @genZinvest0r 我差不多每隔一条帖子就会收到 3 条关于 $P4O 的评论,所以最后还是去看了看 DD。 从战略角度看,它作为 Bosch、Samsung 以及可能下游 $LITE、也许 $COHR 的玻璃供应商,确实挺有价值。 从财务上看就没那么强了,因为它在 BOM 里占比极低。

    英文原文

    @genZinvest0r I got like 3 $P4O comments every other post of mine, so finally ended up taking a look at the DD. Strategically it's pretty valuable as a glass supplier to Bosch, Samsung, and likely downstream $LITE maybe $COHR etc. Financially, not as much since extremely low BOM.

  11. 供应链分析 $LITE$GLW

    认为上游玻璃晶圆供应链很有趣,但自己并不推荐买入。

    @AtlasShrug1 这个供应链地图本身就很有意思。 当一位关注者发现了可能位于 $LITE OCS 上游的玻璃晶圆供应商时,它旁边还有像 $GLW 这种千亿美元公司的存在。 我不是在推荐,也从来没说过这是个好投资。

    英文原文

    @AtlasShrug1 The supply chain map is just very interesting. When a follower found likely $LITE OCS upstream suppliers on the glass wafer level alongside hundred billion dollar companies like $GLW. Not recommending it and never said it was a good investment.

  12. 供应链分析 $P4O$TDY$LITE$GOOGL$GLW

    详细映射 P4O 可能成为 LITE 上游玻璃供应商,但强调未必能显著转化为收入。

    我刚看了评论…… $P4O 看起来像是一个潜在的 $LITE 上游供应商,市值只有 3400 万美元。 它大致的映射可能是: -> Plan Optik $P4O(玻璃晶圆) -> Teledyne $TDY 或 Silek(存储晶圆厂) -> $LITE(OCS 交换机) -> $GOOGL(TPU) 不过,$LITE 这个层面上的玻璃晶圆供应,可能也会和 Corning($GLW)双源采购。 P4O 是 Infineon、Samsung 等公司的已知供应商,所以也不是随便的一家公司。 €335 万现金 vs. 3552 万美元市值,资产负债表还挺健康。 但这不代表它一定会带来显著收入提升,除非他们开始提价(因为玻璃晶圆大概只占 $LITE OCS BOM 的很小一部分)。 我个人在读完这些之后是持有了一些股份。 因为 $LITE OCS 潜在供应链瓶颈在战略上很有价值,也许财务上没那么明显。 但它关于 Plan Optik 的玻璃流和 MDF finishing 在 OCS 封装里几乎不可替代这一点,我觉得是成立的。 当然,超大规模云供应链保护得很严,所以也不可能 100% 确定。 这些功劳都属于跟帖的粉丝们。 但 TLDR: 供应链映射 -> $P4O -> 晶圆厂 -> $LITE -> $GOOGL,按他们的分析是很可能的。 至于它是不是 $LITE OCS 供应链里的瓶颈……我不确定它到底能不能显著转化成财务价值。 再说一遍,我完全不是在推荐它。 只是觉得这种 $LITE OCS 供应链映射很有意思,把粉丝辛辛苦苦做的研究丢到空白里也太浪费了。

    英文原文

    So just checked out the comments... $P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC. How it likely maps: -> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers) -> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries) -> $LITE (OCS Switches) -> $GOOGL (TPUs) However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level. P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company. €3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet. That being said: -> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM). I do personally own shares, after reading this. Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable. But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out. Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%. All credit goes to follower comments. But TLDR: Supply Chain Mapping -> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis. As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially. Again, not recommending this at all. Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.

  13. 供应链分析 $MTSI$JBL

    认为标的当前约 4.4 亿市值,长期可看到数十亿美元级别,Jabil 放量后 MTSI 也会重估。

    @rodrimartinezgg 现在大概交易在 4.4 亿美元市值附近,但我对今天的预期是 20 到 30 亿美元。 然后在一年半后,一旦 Jabil 和其他公司开始放量,它可能会到 $MTSI 的 170 到 200 亿美元市值。

    英文原文

    @rodrimartinezgg Trading at ~$440M right now but my expectation is $2-3B today. Then could be $MTSI $17-20B MC in a year and half once Jabil and others scale up.

  14. 供应链分析 $SIVE$AXTI

    认为机构开始意识到 SIVE 在 CW/EML 瓶颈中的重要性,自己仍看它是下一个十倍。

    当机构开始意识到 $SIVE 在 CW / EML 激光瓶颈里的重要性时,真是有种“TFW”的感觉。 但他们手里却没有仓位…… Sivers 到现在已经涨了 220%+,但我预计它会成为我下一个像 $AXTI 那样的个人 10 倍股。 https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa

    英文原文

    TFW institutions realize how important $SIVE is in the CW/EML laser bottleneck. But have no positions… Sivers is up 220%+ so far, but I expect this to be my next personal 10x like $AXTI. https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa

  15. 供应链分析 $TSEM

    惊讶 TSEM 在自己做多后两周涨了 63%。

    兄弟,像 $TSEM 这种 200 多亿美元市值的公司,怎么会在我做多两周后就涨了 63%…… 这家公司在我发帖前还沉寂了大概 3 个月。 https://t.co/fTYqm8ew03

    英文原文

    Bro how is a $20B+ company like $TSEM up 63%… 2 weeks after I go long? The company was stagnant for like 3 months until my post. https://t.co/fTYqm8ew03

  16. 供应链分析 $SNDK

    认为 Sandisk 投资 Nanya 可能说明传统存储瓶颈比市场想的更严重。

    @Kaizen_Investor 也许对 $SNDK 来说这是战略性动作,我不觉得他们会随便到处扔 10 亿美元。 我会继续挖一挖,看看市场是不是忽略了更大的影响。

    英文原文

    @Kaizen_Investor Probably strategic for $SNDK, don't think they'd just throw $1B around here and there. Will do some digging and see if there's any larger implications markets are missing.

  17. 供应链分析 $SNDK$NANYA$MACRONIX

    说自己年初看多 Nanya,没想到 SNDK 现在直接入股,暗示旧存储瓶颈可能被低估。

    哇,Nanya 年初还是我做多的标的…… 我完全没想到 $SNDK 现在居然刚刚入股了它 10 亿美元以上。 Sandisk 选择入股像 Nanya 这样的公司,说明 legacy memory 的瓶颈可能比市场想的更大、也更被低估。 这对 Macronix 以及其他台湾公司也有巨大的影响。 或者……$SNDK 只是 NAND 价格上涨赚太多了,正好找地方花钱?

    英文原文

    Woah Nanya was my long earlier in the year... Did not expect $SNDK to take a $1B+ stake in it just now. Fact that Sandisk is taking stakes in companies like Nanya, means bottleneck in legacy memory might be bigger / more underpriced than marketes thought. Massive implications for others like Macronix + other TW companies. Or... $SNDK just has too much money from NAND price hiking and needed somewhere to spend it?

  18. 供应链分析 $VNP$FPLSF

    欢迎别人加入 VNP/FPLSF,称其对超大规模云供应链极其重要。

    @PhotonCap 欢迎加入 < $VNP / $FPLSF >。 它们确实是中国和日本以外,对超大规模云供应链最重要的西方公司之一。

    英文原文

    @PhotonCap welcome aboard to &lt; $VNP / $FPLSF &gt;. Genuinely one of the most important Western companies to hyperscaler supply chains outside of China/Japan.

  19. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    说 SIVE 在瑞典交易所,想买的人会受限。

    @bennybigbull $SIVE 需要瑞典那边的交易权限。

    英文原文

    @bennybigbull $SIVE needs trading permissions in Sweden

  20. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    说感谢别人的决定,自己只是分享 thesis 和 conviction。

    @MildBullyMMA 这是你自己做的决定,不用谢我! 我只是一路分享我自己的 thesis 和我自己的 conviction。

    英文原文

    @MildBullyMMA You made the decision yourself, don't thank me! I'm just sharing my own thesis and my own conviction around $SIVE along the way.

  21. 供应链分析 $WIN

    说这些公司会跟着 Win Semi 放大产能。

    @arslang3 它们会跟着 Win Semi 一起扩产。

    英文原文

    @arslang3 They scale with Win Semi.

  22. 供应链分析 $AAOI

    认为光模块 PCB 只是次级机会,最赚钱的是 EML/CW 瓶颈。

    @Antrunt 可以关注光模块 PCB,但我会把重点放在 EML / CW 瓶颈上,因为那才是最赚钱的部分。

    英文原文

    @Antrunt optical transceiver pcb, but I'd focus on the EML/CW bottleneck which is the most profitable.

  23. 供应链分析 $MTSI$SIVE

    分析Sivers被收购的可能性及CHIPS Act对半导体收购的监管影响

    @TGodTracer 哦,100%的公司都会想收购Sivers。他们是世界上少数几家像$MTSI这样能做到这一点的公司之一。 但收购可能会被阻止,因为$SIVE对欧洲和美国都至关重要,涉及国家安全(CHIPS Act受援企业)。

    英文原文

    @TGodTrader Oh 100% companies would want to acquire Sivers. They're one of the few companies in the world like $MTSI that can do this. But acquisitions might be blocked since $SIVE is central to national security for both Europe and US (CHIPS Act recipient).

  24. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    认为 SIVE 估值仍极小,重估空间很大。

    @Ayouubb_ $SIVE 现在的市值大概还只有 4.2 亿美元,在这个瓶颈里的位置下,这简直小得离谱。 我觉得它的重估空间真的很大。

    英文原文

    @Ayouubb_ $SIVE is still only ~$420m MC which is hilariously small given their positioning in this bottleneck. There's just so much room to be rerated imo.

  25. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    说 SIVE 因在瑞典交易所,很多人买不到;早买的人会很开心。

    @PhotonCap 对啊,很多人买不到 $SIVE,因为它在瑞典交易所…… 但那些早期买到的人,接下来几个月大概率会很开心。

    英文原文

    @PhotonCap Yeah, lot of people can't buy $SIVE because it's in a Swedish exchange... But people who did early are likely going to have a fun time over the next few months.

  26. 供应链分析 $AVGO$SIVE$MTSI$COHR$LITE$TSEM$WIN

    引用 Broadcom 讲话,强调激光是半导体瓶颈,应优先布局 CW/EML 与晶圆厂。

    每个行业领导者…… 尤其是今天这段话里 $AVGO(Physical Layer Products 部门)。 他们提到激光是半导体的瓶颈。 如果你还没多头布局…… -> CW 激光:$SIVE | $MTSI -> EML 激光:$COHR | $LITE -> 或者它们的晶圆厂:$TSEM / Win Semi 也许是时候醒醒了? Broadcom 的 Ramachandran 说: “虽然现在行业里有多个供应商……但激光领域确实存在明确的供给约束。”

    英文原文

    Every industry leader... Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today. Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors. If you aren't long... -> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI -> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE -> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi Maybe it's time to wake up? Broadcom Ramachandran: "Even though there are multiple suppliers in the industry today... there is definitely a supply constraint in the laser space,”

  27. 供应链分析 $AAOI$COHR$LITE$SIVE$SNDK

    AAOI在光收发器超级周期中拥有巨大的重新估值潜力,其美国本土完整供应链是核心优势。

    如果你是$AAOI的新手: 在 ATH 附近以 $109 进场看起来很吓人,毕竟今年已涨了 175%。 然而,这看起来就像是光子学领域的 $SNDK。 而碰巧的是,光收发器超级周期的中心... 在 $8.2B 估值下,我们可以看看预测: (预计产能 * 平均售价预测) 2026年Q2:~$312.1M 2026年Q4:~$1.41B 2027年Q2:~$1.53B 2027年Q4:~$1.97B 如果$AAOI最终在营收上超越了 $55B 的 $LITE... $8B 市值对于这种收入增长来说看起来有点荒谬,利润率可达 30-40%... 重新估值潜力是巨大的。 最坏的情况如果内部激光晶圆厂失败,就得从 $COHR 采购。 或者最终成为一个美国制造版的 Innolight / Eoptolink(两家都是 $66B-$90B+ 的中国公司)? 在美国建立完整供应链的选择权被低估了。 $AAOI 是我少数高度看多的标的之一,除了 $SIVE 和 $LITE,如果他们能兑现预测的话。

    英文原文

    If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK. And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle... At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections: (est. Capacity * ASP Projections) Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue... $8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins… Re-rating potential is enormous. Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR. Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)? The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated. $AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.

  28. 供应链分析 $VNP$NEO

    披露自己持有 VNP,并称 NEO 对机器人供应链很重要。

    @VacuityNomad 先声明一下:我持有 $VNP。 我知道 $NEO,而且我在之前的 DD 里就把这家公司标为机器人供应链里很重要的一环。很不错的选择!

    英文原文

    @VacuityNomad Just a disclosure above: I do own $VNP. I'm aware of $NEO and I flagged that company as important to robotic supply chains in my earlier DD. Great pick!

  29. 回顾 AXTI 10 倍成功后,列出 SIVE、AAOI、VNP、SOI 等下一批高信念供应链标的。

    所以我的 10 倍 Moonshot $AXTI 最后真的飞到了月球。 如果你觉得自己错过了火箭: -> $SIVE 是我现在最喜欢的下一个 AXT 式 10 倍 Moonshot。 -> $AAOI 自从我提到之后已经涨了 4 倍,但我还是觉得它从现在这个位置还能再涨 4 倍。 如果你想玩得更稳一点: -> $VNP 是西方版本的 $AXTI -> $SOI 是硅光 / CPO 版本的 $AXTI,但它还没真正起量。 -> $IQE 更偏向重组后的二元结果。 -> $TSEM、$LITE、$COHR 则是更稳的复利型标的。 我之前还没怎么提过 $VNP(5N Plus),但它确实是西方供应链里最重要的公司之一,是 $AXTI 的对照面。 它主要供应:铟、锗、镓、碲、铋。也供应 LEO 卫星太阳能电池,以及光子学的衬底 feedstock。 市场里永远还有更多机会!

    英文原文

    So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!

  30. 供应链分析 $SIVE$JABIL$POET

    强调 SIVE 给 Jabil 的 1.6T 供光已被 OFC 确认,并非猜测。

    @siv_s7 这不是猜测?$SIVE 为 Jabil 1.6T 供光这件事已经在 OFC 上被确认了。 这还不包括 Ayar、$POET Celestial,以及其他 CPO 玩家。

    英文原文

    @siv_s7 It’s not speculation? $SIVE powering Jabil 1.6T is confirmed from OFC. This is not even including Ayar, $POET Celestial, and other CPO players.