全部推文
共 6671 条 · 第 5 / 223 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主列举新瓶颈并承诺减少使用技术术语。
@handz18 我只是在列举最近到处出现的新瓶颈。以后我会尽量少用太技术性的术语。
英文原文
@handz18 我只是在列最近到处出现的新瓶颈 以后我会尽量少用太技术性的术语
-
AMKR短期靠高价填补缺口增收，主要扩产预期在2028年。
@piyush1337 $AMKR 现有传统封装产能（如在菲律宾）利用率不足，如果那 20%+ 的缺口属实，可能会以更高价格填满，这对近期营收来说是“哗哗”进账。我仍认为主要扩产将在 2028 年初，一旦亚利桑那州的 $TSM + $NVDA 业务起飞。
英文原文
@piyush1337 $AMKR has existing traditional packaging capacity underutilized (like in Philippines), so if that 20%+ deficit is true Probably fills that up at higher prices so that's brrr to nearer term revenue. I still think the main ramp is early 2028 with Arizona once their $TSM + $NVDA stuff takes off.
-
AI需求激增致传统封装产能紧缺，引线键合设备成瓶颈。
之前漏看了这条提及，但IC设计业内人士透露，OSAT（外包半导体组装与测试）厂商已警告客户：“到2027年，传统封装产能可能出现超过20%的缺口”（例如 $AMKR、Powertech 可能受益）。 随着：“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈（ASMPT、$KLIC） -> AI服务器出货激增引发了成熟制程芯片需求的飙升 -> OSAT现有的成熟封装产能正被快速吸收 -> 提前锁定传统封装产能正成为一大挑战 级联瓶颈模式正在内存（如DDR2、DDR3）领域出现，现在似乎也蔓延到了封装产能。
英文原文
Missed this mention earlier but IC design insiders reveal that OSAT providers have already warned clients: "traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" (eg. $AMKR, ethereum:0x041ff0e49f6f774e7dc7bd10ee4a14c00b1d80b2, Powertech as potential beneficaries) With: "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck (ASMPT, $KLIC) -> influx of AI server shipments has triggered a spike in demand for mature chips -> existing mature packaging capacity at OSATs is being rapidly absorbed -> securing early access to traditional packaging capacity is now becoming a challenge Cascading bottleneck patterns are occurring across memory (eg. DDR2, DDR3) and now packaging capacity I guess.
-
建议SIVE重塑为高增长光学公司，摆脱本地市场拖累。
@maroonjacket1 嗯，$SIVE 的 CEO 确实牛，但如果你去鱼市，就别指望有人问鱼以外的问题。Sivers 需要开始将自己定位并传达为一家高增长的光学公司，而不是被本地市场拖累。
英文原文
@maroonjacket1 Nah $SIVE CEO is goated, but if you go to a fishermen's market, don't expect many questions outside of fish. Sivers needs to both start treating and communicating themselves as a hypergrowth optical company. Rather than being weighed down by local markets.
-
博主重申对SIVE运营面极度看好，因产能增加及模块披露，但批评会议提问质量差。
@dBooray 不，我仍然在运营层面非常看好$SIVE，随着额外的晶圆代工产能分配(Foundry Allocation)增加以及6个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的披露，我的看好程度更高了。我只是无法从这些电话会议中获得我想要的回答，因为提出的引导性问题很烂，或者聚焦于错误的事情。
英文原文
@dBooray No I'm still very bullish operationally on $SIVE, and much more so with the additional foundry allocation + 6 pluggable disclosure. I just couldn't get the answers I wanted to from these calls, because the leading questions asked were crap or focused on the wrong things.
-
批评 SIVE 忽视美国投资者对增长潜力的关注，导致估值受限。
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然专注于瑞典本地市场的沟通和私募融资，而不是美国市场。面对瑞典受众时，你会遇到诸如“如何止血”、“为何不披露私人客户”、“为何聚焦光收发器（这很明显）”以及“非光子订单影响”等引导性或指责性问题。因此，CEO 三分之一的时间都在为“机会管道”的含义进行辩护。而美国分析师会追问：瓶颈期+ASP上涨/经营杠杆下的晶圆厂分配经济影响；这些分配带来的产能收入（美国分析师半数电话会议都问这个）；$GFS 的 NPO/CPO/可插拔规模影响及下游终端客户机会；Ayar 等 CPO 玩家 2028 年量产（刚融资 5 亿+）或 ELS 生产与 O-net 的 TAM 机会；6 家新可插拔玩家的规模，而非质问“为何不披露”；以及 CFO 关于上市时间表和 M&A TAM 扩张的法律声明。这样投资者才能感知 2027-2028 年的未来增长。相反，目前的问答框架聚焦于当前财务（美国投资者不关心）、非光子影响或对措辞的质疑，而非让美国投资者兴奋于 CW 激光瓶颈期的经济影响。$SIVE 在瑞典市场花的时间越多，其估值就越像瑞典公司。
英文原文
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage - Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts) - $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities - Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there. - How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them" - Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028. Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording. Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck. The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
-
SIVE应聚焦增长与上市，而非应对无谓指控。
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE 的方向此前已分享，且与我认同的观点一致： -> 并购(M&A)重点（已引入2名相关新董事） -> 纳斯达克(NASDAQ)上市（已公布计划） -> 瓶颈期的产能（已宣布新的晶圆厂合作伙伴） -> 多项开发与认证正在进行中 他们在本季财报电话会上的沟通严重偏离重点。 他们不应把所有时间花在反驳瑞典市场关于“机会管道”的无谓指控上。 而应专注于未来增长机会的经济影响 + 加速纳斯达克上市进程，而非提供律师式的免责声明。
英文原文
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE direction has already been shared and aligned with what I've agreed with: -> M&A focus (they brought on 2 new related board members) -> NASDAQ listing (already announced plan) -> Capacity during bottleneck (announced new foundry partner) -> Many development/qualifications ongoing Their communication was super far off in this quarter's call. They shouldn't need to spend all their time defending against the useless Swedish market accusations about "opportunity pipeline". And just focus on economic impact of forward growth opportunities + accelerate NASDAQ listing process rather than giving lawyer like disclousres.
-
对比马斯克与Sivers沟通风格，看好TSLA增长叙事。
@sebiisb 看看埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议(Transcripts)中的沟通风格对比。他非常具有前瞻性和远见。他聚焦于增长领域（如人形机器人）的经济影响，而非 $TSLA 财报中的薄弱环节。Sivers 的会议记录则感觉像律师式的披露，只是被动地为其类似 Allspace 的合同机会管道使用情况进行辩护。
英文原文
@sebiisb Look at the contrast of how Elon Musk communicates in his transcripts. Very forward looking and visionary. And focuses around economic implications of GROWTH areas (eg. humanoids), not weak parts of $TSLA earnings. Sivers transcripts felt like lawyer like disclosures and just going on the defensive defending opportunity pipelines usage with their allspace type contracts.
-
博主因CFO沟通糟糕且含糊其辞，表示不愿持有该股票。
@platochi 沟通必须改善100%。CFO的声明让我想把手机扔出窗外。 “这一决定更多地取决于市场状况、投资者对业务势头的需求，以及我们是否相信在那一刻上市能为股东创造长期价值。” 这不是法庭吗？？？ 如果我再听到CFO重申这一点，我连自己都不会持有这只股票。
英文原文
@platochi Communication 100% needs to be better. The CFO statement made me want to throw my phone out the window. "the decision becomes much more a question of market conditions, of investor demand on business momentum and on whether we believe the listing at that moment would create the long-term value for shareholders" This isn't a courtroom??? Even I wouldn't hold the stock if I heard the CFO reiterate this one more time.
-
Sivers若加速上市并收购私有AI光公司，有望快速复苏。
@CryptoVandelay 完全取决于 $SIVE 的执行能力及其对国际受众的沟通。他们拥有：-> 在两家晶圆代工厂瓶颈期间的巨大激光器产能 -> 许多正在进行的资格认证 -> 来自7000万美元融资的资金。如果他们想利用这些资源去收购一家像 Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter 那样的私有公司，并通过投入资源加速纳斯达克上市进程，我可以看到 Sivers 实现快速复苏。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay Fully dependent on $SIVE execution and int. audience communication. They have: -> tremendous laser capacity during a bottleneck from 2 foundries -> many ongoing qualifications -> capital from $70M fundraise If they want to leverage their way to a Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter type acquisition of a private company. And pull forward NASDAQ listing process by pouring resources to do so, I can see Sivers pulling a fast recovery.
-
SIVE运营佳但CFO沟通差，估值低或被MRVL收购以整合Celestial。
@NieMehrKrieg 运营层面，Sivers 表现极佳。但在沟通方面，首席财务官(CFO) 的表现糟糕透顶，甚至可以说是惨不忍睹。 为了让大家对估值有个概念： $SIVE 现在的价格足够便宜，以至于 $MRVL 只需花点零钱就能将其收购，从而实现对其 Celestial 收购案的垂直整合。
英文原文
@NieMehrKrieg Operationally, Sivers has been doing amazing. Communication wise, it's been subpar and atrocious from the CFO. Just to give you a sense of valuations: $SIVE is cheap enough now that $MRVL could just blow spare change to buy it and vertically integrate their Celestial acquisition.
-
批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。
如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。
英文原文
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
-
建议用资格认证爬坡和晶圆产能而非管道收入来预测JBL营收。
@dBooray @SoundResponse 我使用“管道收入”(pipeline revenue) 来评估其客户质量相对于此前管道收入预估的情况。例如，$JBL / $GFS 第一季度超过 7 亿美元，而第二季度增加了 6 家可插拔(pluggable)合作伙伴。这并非进行收入预测的理想指标，因为我认为一旦他们扩展产品线（例如向下游延伸至光引擎或完整可插拔模块），其可寻址市场(AM)和爬坡(ramp)表现会好得多。在此期间，我认为追踪 $JBL 的资格认证(qualification)爬坡以及建模为收入的晶圆产能，并假设在短缺情况下能售出，是更好的方法。
英文原文
@dBooray @SoundResponse I use pipeline revenue as a measure est. quality of their customers relative to previous pipeline revenue estimates. Eg. Q1 $JBL / $GFS $700M+, vs. Q2. 6 pluggable partners added. Not really a good figure to go off for revenue projections, since I’d expect addressable market + ramp to be much better once they expand product lines (eg. More downstream into optical engines or complete pluggables). In the meantime I think it’s better to track $JBL / qualification ramps and wafer capacity modeled into revenue, and assume it gets sold given shortages.
-
博主转发内容，未提供具体信息。
@KongJiJustin https://t.co/opsLQ2g1Ld
英文原文
@KongJiJustin https://t.co/opsLQ2g1Ld
-
博主感叹某内容非常美丽。
@Moon1ightSt 太美了😭
英文原文
@Moon1ightSt 太美了😭
-
博主因图表高浏览量而分享链接，未涉及具体投资观点。
只是因为这张图浏览量太高了… 白毛牛来 https://t.co/WiHhXVqtK5
英文原文
只是因为这张图浏览量太高了… 白毛牛来 https://t.co/WiHhXVqtK5
-
指出Anthropic若2万亿上市，10%资金可买下众多消费品牌，暗示估值荒谬。
前沿实验室的相对估值如今是否过于荒谬？ 如果 Anthropic 以 2 万亿美元估值上市……其 10% 的资金几乎可以买下所有主要成熟的消费品牌： 包括： Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American Eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme…… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s…… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose。 全部一起买。仅用 Anthropic 的 10%。 他们还将剩下 516 亿美元。
英文原文
Are Frontier lab relative valuations are too absurd nowadays? If Anthropic IPOs at $2T… 10% of that can buy up almost every major established consumer brand: From: Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose. All together. Using 10% of Anthropic. And they’d still have $51.6B leftover.
-
传统存储厂商远期市盈率极低，估值取决于层级
@iammichaelz 取决于你关注的是存储器的哪一层级 许多传统 DRAM/NAND 和 NOR Flash 厂商目前的远期市盈率(P/E)仍然仅为 1.8-3 倍
英文原文
@iammichaelz 取决于你看的是哪一层存储 很多传统 DRAM/NAND 和 NOR Flash 厂商目前的远期 P/E 仍然只有 1.8-3 倍
-
存储需求呈结构性短缺，看好板块远期估值上升。
所以……回到存储这边，我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示：“我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示：“我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 闪存都存在结构性的巨大需求”，非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%。 $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动……与此同时，存储定价处于“极端”水平且还在继续上涨。 Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论。 我之前就说过，存储需求看起来是结构性的，而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM 高带宽内存，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年…… 所以我确实认为，整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会。
英文原文
所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.
-
引用AXTI历史案例，指出市场曾强烈反对其13美元时的股价。
@Ice_Tradingg 当 $AXTI 股价为 13 美元时，市场也曾强烈反对。
英文原文
@Ice_Tradingg The market also strongly disagreed when $AXTI was $13.
-
质疑Sivers混合制造策略，支持AAOI/LITE垂直整合模式。
@shawnyang1128 这是他们代工厂合作伙伴在2024年披露的晶圆产能。也许有某家美国厂商被纳入了。不过我不喜欢Sivers在这个阶段转向混合制造模式（我认为其目标仅为1/3的产能）。但我确实同意需要像$AAOI或$LITE那样实现垂直整合。
英文原文
@shawnyang1128 This was disclosed wafer capacity from their foundry partners back in 2024. Maybe one of the US players got added. I’m not a fan of Sivers switching to hybrid manufacturing at this stage though (think it targeted 1/3rd of capacity). But I do agree it’s needed to be vertically integrated like $AAOI or $LITE.
-
SIVE遭恶意做空，长期Capex增加是主要看空点。
@sokarsokk 混合了算法、空头以及数十个被重新启用或休眠的账户，专门用于散布关于 $SIVE 的负面消息。很难相信那些在 2016 年亚洲 ICO 期间用于营销的账户，或是新的 X 账户，会突然开始只发布 50 条针对 Sivers 的负面评论。尽管这些行为会导致短期波动，但基本面终将回归。我看到的实质性看空因素是，从 Fab-lite（轻晶圆厂）模式转向混合制造模式所带来的资本支出（Capex）增加的影响（但从长远来看这是不可避免的）。我还没看到多少人评论这一点。
英文原文
@sokarsokk Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers. Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up. The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run) I haven’t really seen much people comment on that
-
分析某公司现金流与债务状况，认为其资金充裕且无息债，前景无忧。
@ethics3606 如果你将第二季度(Q2)的经营性现金流出与他们筹集的7000万美元结合起来看。仅这笔资金就能维持约2.5年，即使你忽略从资格认证(quals)流向高容量制造(HVM)的收入。在完成引导轮转换和退出后，他们也没有利息债务。他们完全没问题。
英文原文
@ethics3606 If you take Q2 operating cash outflow and the $70m they raised. That amount alone would last around 2.5 years, even if you ignore income that flows in from quals -> HVM. They also have no interest debt after bootstrap conversion + exit. They’re more than fine
-
Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
-
批评者误判半导体资格认证周期，应关注超大规模供应商认证进度。
@SoundResponse 很多批评来自那些不懂如何评估半导体玩家资格认证周期的人。$AAOI 在 30 美元时和 $AEHR 在 30 美元时也遇到过同样的情况。这说明当人们深入审视开发合同收入、一次性会计费用，而不是超大规模供应商的资格认证时间表进展时，就会得出这种结论。
英文原文
@SoundResponse Lot of critiques are from people who don’t understand how to evaluate qualification cycle semi players. Got the same thing with $AAOI back at $30 or $AEHR at $30. Goes to show when people look hard into development contract revenues, one-off accounting charges, rather than how hyperscaler supplier qualification timelines are going
-
博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
-
驳斥激光供应充裕论，指出市场误解认证周期玩家。
@Kr_Soze 我从未见过有人在瓶颈期声称激光供应有“对 Sivers 的‘巨大产能分配’……‘立即可用’”。 并且披露除了 $JBL 之外还与 6 家新的可插拔(pluggable)制造商合作（共 7 家）。 “表现糟糕”。我认为像你这样的人大多只是误解了如何评估资格认证周期(qualification cycle)的玩家。
英文原文
@Kr_Soze I've never seen someone say new "tremendous capacity allocation for Sivers" for laser supply... "available now" during a bottleneck. And a disclosure working with 6 new pluggable manufacturers beyond $JBL (so 7). "was awful". Think majority of people like yourself just misunderstand evaluating qualification cycle players.
-
澄清定制与可插拔光模块厂商的量产时间表差异。
@carrioresearch 你把定制产品与常规时间表（例如可插拔光模块厂商）混淆了。回顾他们2023-2024年关于Lightmatter、Lightelligence和Celestial的帖子（这些厂商预计2028年起飞），这就说得通了。对于可插拔厂商，他们提到“部分可以实现”非常快速的认证和产能爬坡，可能在2027年。
英文原文
@carrioresearch You're conflating custom products with regular timelines (eg. pluggable players). And this makes sense when you look at their post about Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and Celestial back in 2023-2024 (where these players take off 2028) For the pluggable players they mentioned "some can achieve" very rapid qualification and ramp" likely in 2027.
-
CW激光器瓶颈持续，多厂商产能与新技术进展令博主基本面看好。
CW（连续波）激光器瓶颈持续存在。 -> 2家晶圆厂（Win + 另一主要玩家）为 $SIVE 提供大量产能 -> $JBL 明确的爬坡时间表 - 6家新的可插拔光模块厂商处于评估/后期讨论阶段，带来近期机会 -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (可能包括 Celestial + 其他 CPO 共封装光学玩家)。 -> 甚至未包含他们与 TFLN 等其他技术合作的工作。 对此我基本面非常看好。
英文原文
Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.
-
Sivers CEO确认CW激光器产能现已可用，可立即供货。
@sebiisb 是的，如果现在开始，新的晶圆厂(Foundry)认证通常耗时很长…… 但他们表示，用于连续波分布反馈(Continuous Wave Distributed Feedback, CW DFB)激光器生产的巨大产能“现已可用”。 鉴于连续波(CW)激光器短缺，这真是个惊人的消息。 为了佐证这一点，管理层被问及 Sivers 是否能利用新合作伙伴的产能立即销售激光器。 CEO 表示可以，称他们与该合作伙伴“合作已久”。
英文原文
@sebiisb Yeah, usually new foundry qualifications might take a lot of time if they started now... But they said tremendous capacity is "available now" for CW DFB laser production. Which is amazing news given CW laser shortages. Just to support that too, management was asked if Sivers could sell lasers right away using the new partner capacity. The CEO said yes, that they have been working with the partner "for a while."