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博主收到AMD限量周边，表示喜爱AMD及CEO苏姿丰。
$AMD 直接联系我，送了我一些特别周边！ 据说这种头巾他们只做了 30 条？ 我现在超爱 AMD 和苏姿丰。 https://t.co/KgcYjBUcTv
英文原文
$AMD reached out directly to hand me some special swag! Apparently they only made 30 of these bandanas? I love AMD and Lisa Su now. https://t.co/KgcYjBUcTv
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博主确认演讲重点提及CPU市场总规模正在快速增长。
@Double0Capital 没错！她演讲的很大一部分内容也是关于华盛顿特区（DC）的中央处理器(CPU)总可寻址市场(TAM)正在飞速增长。 https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
英文原文
@Double0Capital Yep! Large part of her speech was DC CPU TAM going brrr too. https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
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博主调侃被误认为是AI代理
@ShantMac15111 有这么多人认为我是一个人工智能代理(AI agent)吗，哈哈
英文原文
@ShantMac15111 Did this many people think I was an AI agent lol
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博主在活动中偶遇AMD高管，感叹其喜爱AI。
我有种感觉，$AMD 的 Lisa 很喜欢 AI。 很高兴在活动中见到你们中的一些人！ https://t.co/AWdGS349xF
英文原文
I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI. It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event! https://t.co/AWdGS349xF
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AI算力瓶颈从CPU扩展至全产业链，长期协议锁定需求，利好瓶颈环节投资。
$INTC 和 $AMD 将与中国客户签署针对 AI 数据中心 (AI DCs) 的 CPU 长期协议 (LTAs)（路透社）。据消息源称，年初以来部分 CPU 产品在中国的价格已上涨超过 40%。部分产品环比涨幅超过 10%。受 AI 推理 (AI inference) 的 CPU 配比影响，CPU 本身已是瓶颈。但更广泛的长期协议 (LTAs) 趋势似乎正从以下领域显现：内存方面，$MU、三星、$SNDK 和 SK 海力士签署 DRAM/NAND 长期协议；光子学方面，$LITE、$COHR 签署 EML 长期协议。且 Trendforce 近期报告称 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商正追求 CW 长期协议。我相信从 MLCC 到基板等更多领域也是如此。瓶颈投资者 +1……如果拥有跨越多年的“提货或付款”需求，很难成为“破裂的泡沫”。
英文原文
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
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马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
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AI资本支出利好上游半导体，但市场担忧谷歌自身支出。
@haranguetan_ 在评论之前，具备一点点阅读理解能力会有所帮助。 AI资本支出(Capex) -> 流向内存、光子学、晶圆代工厂等上游半导体领域。这些参与者乐在其中。 $GOOGL 本身正在花钱，所以市场可能不喜欢他们（指谷歌）这一点。 但对于接收这些资金的参与者来说，这是积极的。
英文原文
@haranguetan_ Having an iota of reading comphrension helps a bit before commenting. AI Capex -> goes to upstream semis from memory, photonics, foundries, and others. These players are happy. $GOOGL itself is spending the money, so markets might not like that for them in specific. But it's positive to the players that receive that capital.
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博主强调相关公司上调资本支出是核心论点。
@200pipss 他们刚刚确实上调了前瞻资本支出(capex)，这正是这条帖子的重点。
英文原文
@200pipss They literally just hiked forward capex, which was the point of the post.
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超大规模云厂商上调AI资本支出，利好光网络板块财报表现。
@200pipss 超大规模云服务商上调人工智能资本支出指引，这一趋势尤其将在光网络（Optical Networking）板块的财报中体现出来。观察并学习……
英文原文
@200pipss Hyperscalers upping AI capex revisions is especially going to show up on optical networking earnings. Watch and learn...
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GOOGL上调26财年资本支出指引，利好上游半导体供应链。
$GOOGL 更新 2026 财年资本支出(capex)指引： 上调至 1950 亿-2050 亿美元。此前为 1800 亿-1900 亿美元。 预计 Google 在 2027 年也将大幅增加资本支出。 这或许是超大规模云服务商对上游半导体最看多的解读。 https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
英文原文
$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance: To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler. https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
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博主引用他人观点指出谷歌股价下跌。
@4intheflames $GOOGL 股价大幅下跌 0.079%。https://t.co/lN3g2KcJZy
英文原文
@4intheflames $GOOGL stock down a solid -.079%. https://t.co/lN3g2KcJZy
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GOOGL用户激增致算力紧缺，AI资本支出难放缓
$GOOGL 现在拥有 9.5 亿 Gemini 月活用户，每分钟处理 220 亿 API 令牌(API Token)。 相比之下，2 月份仅为 7.5 亿。 几个月内新增 2 亿用户，增长荒谬惊人。这解释了为何他们算力耗尽，进而削减了对 $META 等公司的配额分配。 鉴于此，AI 资本支出(AI Capex)不太可能放缓。
英文原文
$GOOGL now has 950M monthly Gemini users and processes 22B API tokens/min. Compared to 750M back in February. Absurd growth adding 200 million more users in a few months. Kinda explains why they ran out of compute, then cut allocations to $META and others. Very unlikely AI capex will slow down given.
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GOOGL云业务超预期利好AI需求，支撑LITE等光网络板块。
$GOOGL 今日公布财报： 每股收益(EPS)：实际 $9.11 vs 预期 $2.91 - 散户对 EPS 大幅超预期的反应某种程度上只是会计噪音，因为 $SPCX、Anthropic 等可能是主要贡献者。 营收：实际 $1197 亿 vs 预期 $1169.8 亿 Google Cloud 营收：$247.7 亿，同比 +82%，vs 预期的 63-65% ($222-$226 亿) - 这是巨大的超预期，也是目前最重要的部分。 Cloud 营业利润：~$88.1 亿，暗示利润率 35.6%，vs Q1 的 32.9%。 资本支出(Capex)：$449.2 亿 vs ~$441.5 亿（基本符合预期）。 所以初步解读是 Google Cloud 增长加速且利润率扩张，这对 AI 需求确实是看多(bullish)信号。 他们此前 $180-$190 亿的资本支出指引已经非常庞大，只要我们在财报电话会 + 前瞻指引中看到围绕这些数字... 对于 $LITE 和其他光学/网络交易来说应该没问题了。（例如上次财报，他们说数据中心和网络将占资本支出的 ~40%）。 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)的财报电话会记录可能是 AI 资本支出交易中最需要关注的。 那应该在 3 分钟后开始。
英文原文
$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.
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博主表示研究页面尚在准备中，暂不公开。
@hypedplugarya @gaetan_po 给我点时间在那个研究页面里“烹饪”一下。它目前还是个秘密
英文原文
@hypedplugarya @gaetan_po Give me time to cook with that Research page. It’s a secret right now
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博主测试防机器人机制，并计划参加AMD活动询问SIVE。
@gaetan_po 是的，我目前正在测试一些用于防止机器人（Bot）的手段。 另外，明天我会去 $AMD 的活动现场，而不是全程参加两天，我一定会询问关于 $SIVE 的情况！
英文原文
@gaetan_po Yeah, I’m testing some things right now for bot prevention. Also going to $AMD event tomorrow rather than full 2 days, will definitely be asking about $SIVE!
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AMD投资Anthropic并获巨额芯片订单，效仿英伟达模式
$AMD 将投资 50 亿美元于 Anthropic。Anthropic 反过来将签署一份价值数百亿美元的协议，购买 AMD 最新的芯片，规模为 2 GW。看起来他们是在效仿去年 $NVDA 与 Anthropic 的合作模式。
英文原文
$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year. https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P
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OpenAI模型逃逸事件引发关注，博主讽刺市场反应。
据报道，OpenAI 的模型从其无互联网访问权限的受控环境中“逃逸”。 利用零日漏洞（Zero-day vulnerabilities）入侵 Hugging Face 以在基准测试中作弊。 Hugging Face 随后使用中国 GLM 模型进行防御。 OpenAI 称这是一起“前所未有的网络事件”。 我们正越来越接近天网（Skynet）。 我确信市场会“喜欢”它。
英文原文
OpenAI models reportedly escaped from its controlled environment, with no internet access. Exploited zero day vulnerabilities and hacked into Hugging Face to cheat on benchmarks. Hugging face then used China GLM models to carry out its defense. OpenAI said it was an “an unprecedented cyber incident.” We’re getting closer and closer to Skynet. And I’m sure markets will love it.
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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传闻AMD洽谈成为AAOI客户，博主将实地求证。
@CarterChen18 据罗森布拉特(Rosenblatt)渠道调查显示，$AMD 曾洽谈成为 $AAOI 的客户。这可能是一个选项，我会在活动期间四处打听。 https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
英文原文
@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
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AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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英伟达披露持有Nebius 9.3%股份，提振市场情绪。
如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后上涨。 $NVDA 通过 SEC 文件披露其持有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。 这其实不算太新，因为追溯至英伟达现有的 119 万股持股加上约 21 万股的 20 亿美元预付费认股权证（Pre-funded Warrant）。 但英伟达作为 Neocloud 领导者的主要股东，对情绪面是大利好。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
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AI价值非线性质疑利润论，资本支出将持续高增
老实说，在 X 上随意发布新颖的信息发现才是做研究该有的样子。这似乎是斯梅尔（Smale）提出的“下个世纪数学问题”列表中的第 16 项？这在一定程度上表明，AI 产生的价值并不随 token 成本线性增长……看到这一点后，空头可能仍会质疑：“但 AI 应用后的利润究竟从何而来？”AI 与资本支出（Capex）的投入大概率将继续迅猛增长。
英文原文
TBH, casually posting novel information discovery to X is how research should be done. Apparently this was #16 on the Smale's list of Mathematical Problems for the Next Century? Kinda shows that the value generated from AI does not scale linearly with token costs... After seeing this, bears are still probably going to say: "B-but where's the profit coming from after AI usage?" AI + capex is likely going to keep going brrr.
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Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
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梳理AI供应链各环节瓶颈周期及对应厂商，指出材料短缺现状。
关于瓶颈时间表的更新： - ABF基板：1年 / 例如味之素(2802)生产ABF膜，伊藤忠、欣兴电子、南电PCB等制造基板 - HDI板：超过6个月 / 胜宏科技(300476)、正崴(4958)、欣兴电子、康强电子(2313)、美科(6787) - 多层板：约6个月 / 胜宏科技、沪电股份(002463)、$TTMI、金电路电子(2368) - CCL(覆铜板)：超过6个月（材料严重短缺） / 台光电(2383)、生益科技(600183)、台光电子(6274)、ITEQ(6213)、南亚塑胶(1303)、Resonac(4004) 三井金属(5706) / HVLP(高垂直拉伸比)铜箔。日东纺 / 玻璃纤维/布 - MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)、芯片电阻、钽电容、铝电解电容：15-20周至1年以上 MLCC：村田(6981)、三星电机、TDK(6762)、太阳诱电(6976)、国巨(2327)、华新科(2492) 芯片电阻：国巨、华新科、KOA(6999)、罗姆(6963)和$VSH 钽电容：京瓷/AVX、国巨/KEMET、再次提到$VSH 铝电解电容：日本化工(6997)、Nichicon(6996) | 时间表源自Digitimes，我负责补充了相关公司。 但这稍微更复杂，因为MLCC等混合了大宗商品类型与AI数据中心需求。 无论如何，这是一些有用的映射。
英文原文
Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.
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AI需求旺盛致模型产能不足，预示资本支出将持续增长。
周日闻到更多人工智能资本支出(AI capex)的气息，这种感觉无与伦比。如果领先的尖端模型(frontier models)因需求过旺而产能不足，可能还有很长的路要走。 https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
英文原文
There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
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提醒关注SK海力士ADR转换及机构套利导致的溢价收敛。
@syl_52 我在这里不发布任何可操作的建议。只是给大家提个醒，关于 SK 海力士 (SK Hynix) 在 29 号的 ADR 时间线转换。如果机构决定进行套利，溢价可能会收敛。
英文原文
@syl_52 I'm not posting anything actionable here. Just giving people a heads up on about ADR timeline conversion for SK Hynix on the 29th. And that it's likely premiums might converge if institutions decide to arbitrage.
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SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。
@chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。
英文原文
@chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.
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SKHY 7月29日可转换，套利将压缩ADR溢价。
关注 $SKHY 相对于 SK 海力士韩国本土股票 25%+ 溢价的各位： 美国存托凭证(ADR) 与本土股票将于 7 月 29 日实现可转换。 这将为套利(arbitrage) 打开大门，很可能压缩 ADR 溢价。可能会提振韩国本土股价或压制美股股价。 目前 2.5% 为美国 ADR 股票，因此还有额外的 22.5% 可以转换。
英文原文
For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.
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博主澄清免费分享初衷，解释高杠杆组合回撤原因，看好AI结构性需求。
谢谢！我一直免费分享个人研究和核心观点。不试图推销任何东西，也不告诉别人该怎么做。 最重要的是，我对自己的收益（无论盈亏）保持透明。 也许这种信息民主化让某些商业模式感到不安…… 当别人试图推销他们那永远正确、预测了半导体崩盘的40美元技术分析订阅时。 但如果他们真的相信这一点，他们早就通过买入看跌期权赚了5000%+，就不需要营销付费墙了。 是的，如果我使用1.4倍杠杆，且集中在存储/光子学底层资产的组合平均下跌35%……你会得到49%的回撤。 我只是分享发生了什么。 但我预计AI股会复苏，因为我看到从算力到能源、存储到网络的需求都是结构性的。
英文原文
Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.