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Soitec 产能协议进展顺利，硅光子衬底垄断地位确立。
还记得我关于 $SOI 的论点吗？Soitec 今天的采访评论： - 预计 1-2 周内将敲定 80% 的产能预留协议，总数超过 10 份。 - $2 亿的光子学-SOI 营收现在被描述为“绝对底线”。 $TSM 也认为硅光子集成 (SiPH) 将在 2027 年成为主流，市场份额将超过光收发器市场的 50%+。 如果你在一个瓶颈环节占据垄断地位： （瑞银估计 Soitec 在支撑硅光子芯片的衬底市场占据 95% 份额） 收入通常会流经你。
英文原文
Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.
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三星锁定70%产能至2031年，反驳内存泡沫论。
“内存是泡沫。”那么请解释一下这个，KOSPI看空者： 据报道，三星已通过长期协议(LTA)与$NVDA、$MSFT和$GOOGL等主要交易对手，锁定了其至2031年约70%的内存产能。 五年的需求可见性…… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc
英文原文
“Memory is a bubble.”Explain this then, KOSPI bears: Samsung has reportedly reserved ~70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 via LTAs with $NVDA, $MSFT, and $GOOGL as main counterparties. Five years of demand visibility… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc
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Celestial若上市估值或达百亿，强调CPO资格认证周期价值而非短期亏损。
假设 Celestial（$MRVL 的收购标的）是上市公司。其估值在美国市场可能会是天价（我猜约 60-100 亿美元）。因为 2028 年营收预测为 5 亿美元（Q4 年化运行率），2029 年营收预测为 10 亿美元。而且 Celestial 是超大规模数据中心共封装光学(CPO) 计划的核心部分。Celestial 的 2026 年 Q2 财报会是：- 营收接近 0（Marvell 称“自收购以来的营收和利润并不重大”）- 每季度亏损 1250 万美元（每年 5000 万美元）。那些懂行的、关注资格认证周期(qualification cycle) 玩家的人会怎么说... 1. 基于 Celestial 的 Q2 市销率(P/S) 且因为它每季度亏损 1250 万美元... 说它是一只毫无价值的 meme 股？还是 2. 鉴于 2028 年 CPO 超大规模数据中心的机会，它应该被估值 60-100 亿美元？我认为这是美/欧文化 + 市场之间的核心文化分歧。如果你知道如何评估资格认证周期玩家，哪个数字才真正重要？我认为毫无疑问是后者。
英文原文
Imagine Celestial ($MRVL acquisition) was public. The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B) Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B. And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO programs. Celestial's 2026 Q2 earnings would have been: - Close to $0 revenue (Marvell said "revenue and earnings since the acquisition were not material") - Losing -$12.5M/quarter ($50M/year) Would people who knew what they were talking about looking at qualification cycle players say... 1. based on Celestial's Q2 P/S numbers and because it was losing -$12.5M a quarter... That it's a worthless meme stock? Or 2. with CPO hyperscaler opportunities for 2028, it should be valued at $6-10B? And I think that's a core cultural disagreement between US / EU cultures + markets. If you knew how to evaluate qualification cycle players, which number actually matters? I'd argue overwhelmingly the latter.
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推测树莓派将受益于Mac Mini短缺及AI训练需求溢出。
@bob80924 是的，我将其作为旁注添加了。但我的理论是 $RPI 最终会承接 Mac Mini 短缺带来的溢出需求。同样的逻辑现在也适用于前沿实验室代理强化学习（Agent RL）训练中的 Openclaw。考虑到树莓派（Raspberry Pi）相对于苹果（Apple）的体量，这些销售在经济上将是显著的。目前尚无证据，只是猜测。
英文原文
@bob80924 Yes, I added that as a side note. But my theory is $RPI eventually gets the overflow from mac Mini shortages. Same idea with Openclaw now applied to frontier lab agent RL training. And those sales would be economically meaningful given Raspberry Pi’s size relative to Apple No proof of that yet, just a guess.
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博主调侃Mac Mini微型云公司上市的想法很有趣。
@ren_stocks 如果看到一家基于 Mac Mini 的微型云(neocloud)公司上市，会是个很有趣的想法。
英文原文
@ren_stocks Would be a funny idea to see an IPO of a Mac Mini neocloud
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博主认为苹果AI意外之财很有趣
@jukan05 是的，关于期限的观点很合理。我只是觉得 $AAPL 的 AI 意外之财(AI windfall)相当有趣。https://t.co/ki0Wp3X6YD
英文原文
@jukan05 Yep, reasonable point on the duration. I just found $AAPL AI windfall to be pretty amusing. https://t.co/ki0Wp3X6YD
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对比苹果与树莓派在AI供应链中的角色，质疑苹果被动获利。
$AAPL 现在显然是一家重要的 AI 公司了？ -> “OpenAI 囤积数万台 Apple Mac mini 和 Mac Studio”用于强化学习 -> Anthropic 正从 $AMZN 租赁 Apple Mac mini 单元以完成类似的 AI 任务 我从未见过一家公司通过“什么都不做”就能赢得如此彻底。 但每当我看到 Apple + AI，我就会想到我挚爱的 $RPI。据悉，Anthropic 自 27 日起正在与 Raspberry Pi 合作，为其新模型制定硬件标准。 目前尚无关于 Anthropic/OpenAI 购买 Raspberry Pi 设备用于类似任务的消息，但也许某些开源情报(OSINT)研究者可以深入挖掘一下。
英文原文
$AAPL is now an important AI company apparently? -> "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of Apple Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning -> Anthropic is renting Apple Mac mini units from $AMZN to complete similar AI tasks I've never seen a company win so hard by doing nothing. But whenever I see Apple + AI, I think of my beloved $RPI. Apparently Anthropic is working with Raspberry Pi now for their new model Hardware Standard, as of the 27th. There's nothing yet about Anthropic/OpenAI buying Raspberry Pi devices for similar tasks, but maybe some OSINT researcher can do some digging.
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AAOI基本面良好且需求可见度高，但6亿可转债构成短期压力。
@nosignal62478 我认为 $AAOI 没问题。我没在这里列出他们，是因为他们不被认为是商用连续波(CW)激光器的供应商（鉴于他们将其内部用于光收发器）。对2027年的需求可见度令人难以置信，只是有一笔6亿美元的可转债(ATM)，这带来了很大的短期抛压。
英文原文
@nosignal62478 I think $AAOI is fine. I didn't list them here because they're not known to be a merchant cw laser supplier (given they use them internally for transceivers). Demand visibility into 2027 is incredible, there's just a $600m ATM, which presents a lot of short term overhang.
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博主回顾7月暴跌后补仓，FOCI和Xintec已大幅反弹。
@SidkMena 是的，在那次7月板块暴跌中，我被迫进行了补仓(averaged down)。 现在 $FOCI 至少上涨了约55%，$Xintec 上涨了约50%，但我的一些其他持仓仍在恢复中。
英文原文
@SidkMena Yeah, I was forced to averaged down during that massive July sector crash. Now up ~55% on FOCI and ~50% on Xintec at least but some of my other names are still recovering
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台积电高管指出光引擎非瓶颈，激光器、光纤及测试环节才是部署关键。
$TSM 先进封装副总裁： “晶圆代工厂可以扩大光引擎的产能，但大规模部署的真正瓶颈在于其他地方…… 包括激光器、光纤、光纤连接器和测试”（UDN） 以下是一些分类思路： 激光器：$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa 光纤/FAU（光纤阵列单元）：Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo 光纤/CPO（共封装光学）连接器：BizLink, $GLW, Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO测试：MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma （披露：我持有上述主题的相关敞口，具体个股名称并非由台积电指定） 我也喜欢其他标的，例如ShunSin，它现在明确拥有TSMC COUPE（共封装统一封装引擎）的敞口，但可能属于封装/集成等不同类别。 例如：“富士康旗下ShunSin确认与台积电COUPE合作” 我认为相比上半年并没有太多新内容，除了持续的新闻（例如上周报告指出FAU在2027年可能出现供需失衡）。 但偶尔重申整体受益者还是很有帮助的……
英文原文
$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...
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ESMT估值极低且库存受益涨价，看好传统存储短缺持续至2027年。
ESMT (3006) 基于7月年化收益的市盈率(P/E)仅为1.9倍。最新净收入为：7月净收入1.09亿美元，年化约13亿美元。拥有约3.959亿美元净现金和2.496亿美元库存。市值减去净现金和库存后，相当于约17个月的7月收益。随着存储价格上涨，库存变现将受益。其他分析师笔记显示，上季度平均售价(ASP)环比预期上涨105-113%。DDR2/DDR3、NOR Flash、SLC NAND价格预计下半年持续上涨。主要问题是持续时间，我个人认为传统DRAM/NAND短缺将在2027年持续收紧。其他人可能不同意。其他分析师如华南证券认为，联华电子(PSMC)晶圆涨价主要是成本传导（下半年将见分晓）。大多数人认为2028年远期市盈率约20倍的公司具有吸引力……但1.9倍的当前运行市盈率在我看来似乎是个异常值。这是我对该公司/传统存储主题的看法，至于是否被低估，我将交由他人/市场决定。
英文原文
ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized. Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory. The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to: ~17 months of July earnings. Where monetizing that inventory benefits from rising memory prices. Their ASP hike expectations were +105–113% Q/Q last quarter from other analyst notes. DDR2/DDR3, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, prices are expected to keep rising H2. The main question is duration, but I personally think legacy DRAM/NAND shortages tightens throughout 2027. Others might disagree. Other analysts like Huanan argue that PSMC wafer hikes are largely pass through (we'll find out H2). Most people are finding companies with ~20 forward P/E ending 2028 to be attractive... But 1.9x current runrate P/E seems like an anomaly to me personally. That's my take on the company/legacy memory theme, I'll let others/markets decide if that's undervalued.
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韩国监管加码致杠杆芯片ETF交易量暴跌，微软Windows成散户交易障碍。
我会怀念韩国散户对 $EWY / 三星 / $SKHY 每日波动反应强烈的日子。 新文章：“随着监管限制生效，韩国日内交易者逃离杠杆芯片ETF” - 旨在提供三星/ SK海力士 2倍每日回报的ETF交易量已降至6月峰值的4% - 该要求紧随此前旨在抑制投机活动的高最低存款等措施之后 - 然后出现了最终BOSS……一个为期5天的交易课程，其中： “投资者必须下载仅限Windows的程序，并每天至少花一小时使用虚拟资金进行交易” $MSFT Windows 击溃了韩国散户。
英文原文
I'm going to miss the days of Korean retail reacting heavily to $EWY / Samsung / $SKHY daily volatility. New piece: "Korean day traders flee leveraged chip ETFs as regulatory curbs bite" - Trading value in ETFs designed to deliver 2x daily returns of Samsung / SK Hynix has fallen to just 4% of its June peak - The requirement follows earlier measures, including a higher minimum deposit, aimed at cooling speculative activity - And then came the final boss... A 5 day trading course where: "Investors must download a Windows-only program and spend at least one hour each day trading with virtual funds" $MSFT Windows wiped out the Korean retail.
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博主回复确认某位用户的提问或观点。
@KostasMoschovas 是的
英文原文
@KostasMoschovas Yes
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告知如何在盈透证券搜索台股3006，并声明非投资建议。
@Myv3rz 如果你在 $IBKR 搜索 <3006> 并启用台湾证券交易所，就可以找到。不过这不是投资建议。
英文原文
@Myv3rz 如果你在 $IBKR 搜尋 <3006>並啟用台灣證券交易所，就可以找到。 不過這不是投資建議。
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ESMT因DDR3供应紧张及高经营杠杆，Q2 ASP暴涨，前景看好。
我越研究 ESMT，对成熟制程存储(legacy memory)主题就越兴奋。 于是查阅了上半年的卖方模型... 3月 ESMT 报告： 华南(Huanan)：Q2 DDR3 4Gb ASP 环比+50% 富邦(Fubon)：引用 Q2 DRAM 价格约+40% 到了8月... 华南引用 ESMT Q2 ASP 增长： 环比+105–113% 混合。 称 DDR3 价格表现远超预期。 因此成熟制程存储价格转化为 ESMT 更高的经营杠杆。 关于力晶(PSMC)晶圆成本上涨：华南估计 H226 制造成本可能上涨~100%，但客户仍高度愿意接受转嫁。 若看7月净利润约1.09亿美元... 远高于早期模型构建的盈利水平。 如果我要给出报告的 TLDR “共识” 1. 随着竞争对手将产能转向高价值存储，DDR3/DDR2 供应保持结构性紧张。 2. 康和(Concord)认为 2026 年没有支持价格反转的条件。 3. 康和预计合约价上涨将覆盖更高的晶圆厂成本。 4. 华南后来发现客户接受这些成本上涨的意愿比预期更强。 从华南读到有趣的一点是 DDR3 用于 IP 摄像头和 HDD 等产品，其中内存组件在客户总 BOM 中占比较小。 因此即使成熟制程 DRAM 价格大幅上涨，成品 BOM 可能只增加几美元... 对许多客户而言，多付几美元比重新设计+重新认证更经济（但这实质性地流入 ESMT 的净利润） 总之，对这个想法很兴奋（*披露我持有仓位） TLDR： -> 华南更新 ESMT 混合 Q2 ASP 环比+105-113% -> 鉴于7月净利润爆发（使 ESMT 年化 RR 市盈率达 1.9x），若缺乏弹性持续+ESMT 因成品 BOM 成本低而能进一步提价，未来前景令人兴奋。 -> 迹象表明客户仍愿意接受力晶晶圆涨价的转嫁。
英文原文
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.
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纠正观点：解决AI瓶颈比单纯找电力更难。
@Sovranoq 谢谢指正，这比**仅仅**找到电力要难得多。
英文原文
@Sovranoq Thanks for the correction, harder than **just** finding power.
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马斯克指出液冷、变压器等基础设施是AI建设难点，博主列出相关概念股。
来自埃隆推文的几个随机想法： $AAON - 冷水机组/液冷 $NVT - 冷却 $MOD - 冷水机组/冷却 $IESC - 布线 $MTRS - 冷水机组 $JCI - 冷水机组 $HPS.A - 变压器（披露我持有该头寸） $PRY.MI - 网络/布线（光纤） $CRDO / $AAOI (同上) / $LITE / $COHR - 网络 既然埃隆·马斯克指出： - 变压器 - 布线 - 液冷 - 大型冷水机组 + 复杂网络 是AI算力建设中的故障点。 这“比寻找电力更难”。
英文原文
Just some random ideas from Elon’s post: $AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling $NVT - Cooling $MOD - Chillers / Cooling $IESC - Wiring $MTRS - chillers $JCI - chillers $HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this) $PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber) $CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - networking Since Elon Musk cited: - transformers - wiring - liquid cooling - massive chillers + complex networking As the point of failure for AI compute buildout. Which is “harder than finding power”
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AI周期虽有局部泡沫，但以NVDA和TSM为核心的结构性趋势将持续加速。
@Omardrisss 更广泛的AI超级周期（如前沿实验室估值、部分Neoclouds）中存在泡沫。偶尔会有些局部回调。但以$NVDA和$TSM为核心的整体主题看起来是结构性的，并将持续加速上行。
英文原文
@Omardrisss There’s bubbles within the broader AI supercycle (eg. frontier lab valuations, some Neoclouds). And some pop here and there. But the overall theme with $NVDA and $TSM in the center of it all looks structural and would keep ramping up.
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NVDA指引超预期，AI供应链瓶颈环节将迎来爆发。
提醒AI看空者：$NVDA 预测2027年超大规模云厂商支出将达1.3万亿美元。较2026年约8000亿美元大幅增长，尽管产能仍受限，营收增速仍达约70%，远超华尔街此前约45%的预期。这些资本支出流向AI供应链……从存储、网络到晶圆代工厂。尤其是那些未从旧世代中受益的新瓶颈/卡点环节。我们就像派对刚开始2小时，大家起初喝的是札幌生啤。有人往情境(Situational)的酒里加了烈酒，我们不得不暂停派对30分钟。但现在派对重启，桌上摆满了龙舌兰酒。我认为真正的狂欢即将开始。
英文原文
FYI to the AI bears: $NVDA projects $1.3T of hyperscaler spend for 2027. Up from ~$800B in 2026, alongside ~70% revenue growth despite remaining capacity constrained… far above prior Street expectations of ~45%. That capex flows across the AI supply chain… from memory and networking to foundries. Especially through the new bottlenecks/chokepoints that didn’t benefit from older generations. We’re like 2 hours into the party where people started off drinking Sapporo draft beer. Someone spiked Situational’s drinks and we had to pause the party for 30 min. But now it’s back on with tequila shots on the table. I think the real party is about to begin.
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指出CEO采访中的引导性问题会扭曲市场对公司前景的认知。
@ram_blings 我认为他们只需要花时间去回答正确的问题…… 如果他们在采访中给自己设局，让针对CEO的问题带有引导性，比如： “你为什么正在失血，以及如何止血？” 而不是： “Ayar刚融资5亿美元，鉴于他们瞄准2028年，你如何看待激光器的量产爬坡？” 你会得到完全不同的回答和反应。
英文原文
@ram_blings I think they just need to spend the time to answer the right questions... If they set themselves up in an interview where the questions to the CEO are leading like: "Why are you bleeding out and how do you stop it" Over.. "Ayar just raised $500m, how do you see your laser ramp with them looking for 2028" You're going to get different responses + reactions.
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SIVE受CW激光瓶颈利好，有望从瓶颈供应商成长为光学巨头。
@wannabepanacea 目前我所见的是由沟通失误和噪音引发的市场波动。论点破位的情况会是：1. 晶圆代工产能分配出现问题，因为这会影响供应。（但他们现在有两家）。2. 或者资格认证失败。（他们发出了上半年 $JBL 订单的信号，但还需观察）。从根本上说，我认为在 CW 激光（连续波激光）瓶颈期间，$SIVE 处于绝佳位置。我也看到 Sivers 有潜力成为更大的光学巨头，而不仅仅是关键的瓶颈供应商……这就是为什么我更关注公司的方向。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be 1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now). 2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see). Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck. I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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用胡萝卜比喻说明需求转移及华邦退出加剧供应短缺。
@CryptoBankz_65 两件事：我现在很想吃胡萝卜。第二点是……这只是一个简化的 TLDR（太长不看版）。 因为我没提到对红色(2)、绿色(3)、蓝色(4)胡萝卜需求增加的连锁影响，以及那些只吃蓝色胡萝卜的人。 因为太饿了，开始改吃绿色胡萝卜。 而那些原本只偏爱绿色胡萝卜的人，也开始改吃红色胡萝卜。 或者那位著名的胡萝卜农夫 Winbond（华邦电子），放弃了一座较老的红色胡萝卜农场，导致胡萝卜供应更加短缺。
英文原文
@CryptoBankz_65 Two things: I'm hungry for carrots now. The second was was that... this was simplified TLDR. Since I didn't include the implications of more carrot demand across red (2), green (3), blue (4) carrots and how people who only ate blue carrots. Started to eat green carrots because they were so hungry. And people who only preferred green carrots started to eat red carrots. Or the famous carrot farmer named Winbond, ditching one of their older red carrot farms, causing more carrot shortages.
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DRAM产能转向导致短缺，ESMT因垄断利基市场而受益。
简单总结一下： 有个叫 $NVDA 的家伙食量巨大。英伟达只想从农民手里买高价土豆。 土豆农 $MU 原本卖胡萝卜……现在把农田改种土豆了。 英伟达导致了一场严重的土豆饥荒，因为它吃得太多。所以其他种胡萝卜的，比如 SK 海力士和三星，都把产能转去种土豆了。 但是……人们仍然需要吃饭。胡萝卜是日常健康饮食的一部分。 现在除了像“ESMT”这样的传统胡萝卜农，没人种胡萝卜了。 所以现在大家都从 ESMT 买胡萝卜，导致短缺，价格上涨。 所以 ESMT 需要更多胡萝卜种子（来自 PSMC）。但 PSMC 的胡萝卜种子也快不够用了。 所以 PSMC 向 ESMT 收取更高的种子费。 但 ESMT 卖胡萝卜的价格远高于 PSMC 提高的种子成本。 现在……ESMT 卖胡萝卜赚得足够多，基于7月财报的交易市盈率仅为1.9倍。 ESMT 能一直卖胡萝卜到2027年吗？ 其他所有农民都这么认为，因为把宝贵的土豆农场改回胡萝卜农场既困难又缺乏动力。
英文原文
Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.
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易胜达受益于成熟存储涨价且估值偏低，建议做多易胜达而非美光。
是的，易胜达(ESMT, 3006) 涉足多个成熟制程(legacy)存储细分市场。 其产品组合包括：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，也就是所有有趣的成熟制程产品。 如果你想关注易胜达所涉猎的更广泛的行业涨价趋势： 1. SLC NAND：2026年下半年预计上涨约120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026年第三季度预计上涨约35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度+30–40%（伴随DDR3供应收紧） 4. NOR：下半年+60–65%+（高密度） 5. MCP/eMCP：据我估算，易胜达环比可能上涨约+15–25% 官方收入结构拆解： DDR2 + DDR3：约占收入的45% DDR4/其他DRAM ~ 10% 的收入 eMCP/MCP ≈30% 模拟及其他 ≈15% 无论如何，持续时间和涨价幅度是关键： -> “没有任何一家全球主要SLC NAND供应商计划在近期增加新产能。” -> TrendForce特别预计，库存耗尽将使SLC NAND在第四季度供应更加紧张。 -> 华邦电子(Winbond)退出DDR2，将使库存更加紧张（他们正在分配订单至2029-2030年） -> 易胜达管理层表示，市场的主要问题在于供应而非需求；公司的晶圆代工产能分配仅覆盖了客户订单的大约60–70% -> 南亚科(Nanya)：“内存短缺可能持续到2027年底，2028年供需依然紧张” -> 南亚科明确表示，产能限制可能导致DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4和DDR3全面短缺。 -> 易胜达将eMCP列为因成熟制程资源被转移至其他领域而获得订单转移红利的产品之一 ______ 如果我要再次陈述我的观点： 我认为，尽管已计入力积电(PSMC) 45%的晶圆涨价因素，易胜达约1.9倍的7月年化运行市盈率(P/E)可能会进一步压缩，因为成熟存储价格仍在上涨。 行业评论支持这种趋势将持续至2027年。 锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期协议(LTAs)以及对2029-2030年的可见度（但这尚未计入估值）。 我认为市场要么不知道这一点，要么错误定价了持续时间，要么高估了力积电晶圆涨价的影响。 也许玩经典LOL中排名第一的挑战者“易胜达”的双排，比玩卡在低分段的“美光(Micron)”更有趣？
英文原文
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments. Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff. If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to: 1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate For official breakdown: DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15% Regardless, duration/hikes is the key: -> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______ If I had to state my thoughts again: I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes. Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027. Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in). I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects. Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?
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看好RDDT盈利增长及变现潜力，驳斥AI搜索引用看空论。
@Minnelli1286325 我喜欢 $RDDT，这是一家非常盈利的公司，同比增长了 61%，我预计他们会找到更多方法来增加受众变现。这是我最喜欢的软件板块标的之一。我认为“AI 搜索引用减少”的看空论调很愚蠢，因为如果你问街上 100 个人他们是如何发现或访问 Reddit 的，我很确定没一个人会说 OpenAI 的引用。它已经达到了像 YouTube/Instagram 那样的目的地层级。
英文原文
@Minnelli1286325 I like $RDDT, very profitable company, grew 61% Y/Y, I expect them to find more ways to increase monetization of audiences. One of my favorite software bucket names. I find the bear cases of "less AI search citations" to be dumb, since if you ask 100 of people on the street how they found or visit Reddit. I'm pretty confident not a single person would say OpenAI citations. It's already on the destination level as Youtube/Instagram.
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AXTI虽证实瓶颈地位，但需极高ASP才能支撑高估值，合同细节待观察。
@he8496 $AXTI 需要将磷化铟(InP)基板的平均售价(ASP)提高到内存级别的极端水平，才能实现进一步的重估，例如达到 2000-3000 亿美元的估值。我认为瓶颈已得到证实，其卡脖子地位也已得到证实。然而，我不清楚其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的合同或长期协议(LTA)具体包含什么内容。随着时间推移我们会看到结果（披露* 持有 AXT 股份）。
英文原文
@he8496 $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations. I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven. However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time (disclosure* own AXT shares).
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MU 市值暴涨至万亿，RDDT 回调后遭贬为垃圾股。
$MU：一年内市值从 1.33 万亿美元飙升至 1 万亿美元以上。 $RDDT 在经历两个月回调后："垃圾股" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
英文原文
$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
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博主赞赏Sivers CEO，认为其需摆脱本地市场限制。
@dxleolibra1003 很高兴看到你主动联系 $SIVE 的投资者关系(IR)部门，更棒的是你直接收到了CEO本人的回复！ 我认为 Sivers 的 CEO 非常出色，只是需要摆脱本地市场的限制。
英文原文
@dxleolibra1003 Cool to see you reaching out to $SIVE IR and it's even better you got a response back from the CEO himself! I do think Sivers' CEO is amazing, just gotta escape local markets.