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主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。
@highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。
英文原文
@highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
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AXTI获两大光学巨头巨额产能预留订单，信号积极。
@wz2013 $AXTI 此前已与 $COHR 签订长期协议(LTA)，并支付了 2230 万美元的预留金。今天又与 $LITE 签订了 LTA，总计 8700 万美元（4350 万 + 4350 万）再次用于预留产能。考虑到这两家都是领先的光学玩家，这似乎是积极的信号。合同定价等具体细节尚不清楚，我们将拭目以待。
英文原文
@wz2013 $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment. As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity. Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive. The actual details such as pricing of the contracts aren't known, so we'll find out more.
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AXTI与Lumentum签InP衬底长协，Lumentum付4350万定金预留产能。
$AXTI 与 $LITE 就磷化铟(InP)衬底签署长期协议。Lumentum 同意支付 4350 万美元定金以预留产能。https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
英文原文
$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
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看好某公司基本面及瓶颈地位，但担忧融资与CEO薪酬结构。
@LeaderInvests 我个人非常喜欢他们目前的基本面状况，在收购 Mirantis 后，拥有现有的 GW 级算力产能，以及泄露的 Anthropic 备忘录显示其在澳大利亚等地锁定算力。他们正处于一个巨大瓶颈的核心位置。作为自豪的股东，主要担忧仍是改善融资结构（不要使用自动取款机 ATM 增发）并取消过度的 CEO 基于股票的薪酬（SBC）-> 让他们追求股价升值而非股份数量。解决这两个问题，我认为其他股东会很高兴。
英文原文
@LeaderInvests I personally quite like their fundamental position right now after Mirantis acquisition, existing GW scale capacity, and leaked Anthropic memos of securing compute in places like Australia. They’re sitting right in the middle of a massive bottleneck. As a proud shareholder, main concern still is improving financing structures (not with ATMs) and removing the excessive CEO SBCs -> having them try for appreciating share prices rather than share count. Two fixes and I think other shareholders will be happy.
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博主买入1股IREN以声援其持有者。
为了向 $IREN 的持有者表示声援：我现在持有了 1 股 IREN。
英文原文
To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.
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美联储维持利率不变，市场已消化预期，等待主席讲话。
美联储将利率维持在 3.50% - 3.75% 不变。 目前情况良好，因为如果立即加息，市场本会抛售（似乎已经大幅提前消化了加息预期）。 现在大家都在等待美联储主席的讲话。 https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb
英文原文
Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now. https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb
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AI去杠杆冲击AAOI，质疑其估值并对比LITE。
@nicomejia_ 目前全球范围内正在进行无差别的AI去杠杆化，$AAOI 是受影响的高贝塔（High-Beta）标的之一。如果他们在2027年（基于每月4.71亿美元的预测）实现56亿美元的年化营收，却依然维持63亿美元的公司市值，我个人至少会感到惊讶。$LITE 目前的年化营收约为32.3亿美元，但市值已达480亿美元（尽管利润率更高）。
英文原文
@nicomejia_ Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected. I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company. $LITE annualized right now is ~$3.23B and they're a $48B company (but higher margins)
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美政府入股GFS推CPO，利好西方供应链玩家。
@Yeshuaisking11 对于关键矿产，我原本就预料到西方需要尽可能多的补贴来与中国竞争。 美国政府入股 $GFS 以支持共封装光学(CPO)并不在我的预期之内。但这确实表明 CPO 已成为算力供应链的优先事项，且他们已将格芯(Globalfoundries)打造为本土冠军。 我认为这对所有参与美国 CPO 供应链的西方玩家如 $LITE / $SIVE 都是利好。但对世界其他地区的相关企业则不然。
英文原文
@Yeshuaisking11 I kinda expected it for critical minerals since Western needs as much subsidies as possible to compete with China. US Gov taking a stake in $GFS for CPO was not on my calendar. But it does go to show CPO becoming a compute supply chain priority and they made Globalfoundries a domestic champion. Which my thoughts are that it's positive for all the Western players this US CPO supply chains like $LITE / $SIVE. Not so much for other parts of the world.
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GFS获政府入股支持CPO却股价下跌，对比INTC令人惊讶。
@4intheflames 我并未持有 $GFS，但令我个人惊讶的是，在美国政府为支持其推进共封装光学(CPO)技术而直接入股的消息公布后，其股价仍在下跌。考虑到大家都记得 $INTC 是最近一家受美国政府青睐的晶圆代工厂，这确实令人惊讶。
英文原文
@4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.
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美政府注资GFS加速CPO研发，利好硅光子供应链标的SIVE和LITE。
美国政府将持有 $GFS 1% 的股份，并授予其 3 亿美元用于美国《芯片法案》(CHIPS ACT)。 鉴于该《芯片法案》专门旨在推进共封装光学(CPO) + 硅光子技术(Silicon Photonics)，这实际上是对 $SIVE / $LITE 的强烈利好映射(read through)。 （参考：Sivers 和 Lumentum 是 GFS 演示文稿中提到的唯二两家公开激光供应商。Sivers 激光阵列最近被指定为 Globalfoundries SCALE 用于 CPO 的参考设计。） 根据美国政府公告：“GlobalFoundries 将获得高达 3 亿美元，以将国内 CPO 研发加速两到三年”（NIST） 从未想过我们会看到美国政府 / $INTC 晶圆代工模式在特定 CPO 领域的应用...
英文原文
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
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博主分享过去两周经历三次手术，状态不佳。
@KostasMoschovas 过去两周做了3次手术！日子过得并不轻松
英文原文
@KostasMoschovas Had 3 surgeries in the past 2 weeks! Not having a fun time
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博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。
我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。
英文原文
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
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GOOGL上调资本支出指引后股价大跌，博主猜测是去杠杆所致。
@wannabepanacea 我最近刚退出（市场），正在从两轮手术中恢复。鉴于 $GOOGL 上周上调了资本支出指引，这一跌幅至少可以说是令人惊讶。我需要去查一下加息概率，但我猜测这只是去杠杆。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I've been out if it recently, just recovering from 2 rounds of surgery. Drop was been surprising to say the least given $GOOGL hiked capex guidance last week. Will need to check on rate hike odds, but my guess is just deleveraging.
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FCC拟禁中国机器人进口，利好美国本土人形机器人公司。
据路透社报道，联邦通信委员会(FCC)准备禁止进口中国的人形和四足机器人。旨在保护美国的人形/机器人项目。Agility Robotics ($CCXI) 和其他美国人形机器人参与者听到这个消息应该会很高兴。 https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX
英文原文
FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this. https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX
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博主暂不建仓，静待CPO标的逻辑兑现，后续将分享个股思路。
@twisterchessur 就我个人而言，目前只想静待既有的做多逻辑逐步兑现，尤其是近期大盘回调之后的共封装光学(CPO)相关标的。当前暂不打算建新仓，不过稍后我会再分享几个个股思路。
英文原文
@twisterchessur 就我个人而言 目前只想静待既有的做多逻辑逐步兑现，尤其是近期大盘回调之后的 CPO 相关标的。当前暂不打算建新仓 不过稍后我会再分享几个个股思路
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CMXT 上市暴涨近 5 倍，博主调侃并询问中国粉丝是否参与。
哇，$CMXT 今天上市后涨幅非常“正常”，达到了 +469.98%。 现在估值约为 4873.1 亿美元，从 855 亿美元上涨而来。 我的中国粉丝中有谁参与了这次 IPO 认购吗？ https://t.co/TlibjHe799
英文原文
Wow, $CMXT is up a very normal +469.98% after going public today. Now valuing it at ~$487.31 billion, up from $85.5 billion. Did any of my Chinese followers buy into the IPO? https://t.co/TlibjHe799
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英伟达拟担保OpenAI融资，博主质疑循环融资健康度但看好资本支出受益者。
英伟达正在洽谈为 OpenAI 的数据中心融资提供高达 2500 亿美元的担保。 - 软银旗下的 SB Energy 开发俄亥俄州 10GW 园区 - OpenAI 签署长期租赁协议 - $NVDA 担保 2500 亿美元融资 - OpenAI 正在讨论单独协议，购买高达 3500 亿美元的英伟达芯片。 不太确定这种循环融资长期来看是否健康，但鉴于 AI 基础设施支出的巨大规模…… 感觉资本支出受益者会非常高兴。
英文原文
Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。
@OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。
英文原文
@OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there
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Waymo拟与Uber拆分，印证博主此前对Uber合作策略失误的判断。
事实如此，据《金融时报》报道，$GOOGL Waymo 正考虑与 $UBER 拆分。我去年认为 Uber 与 Waymo 合作是个糟糕的选择……因为 Uber 只是 Google 在扩张过程中所需的分发渠道。我认为 $NBIS Avride、其他中立玩家或垂直整合才是最佳路径。如今，其合作伙伴 Waymo 看起来成了 Uber 最强的颠覆者。
英文原文
There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.
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黄仁勋首次入驻X平台并分享开放模型信件。
$NVDA 的 Jensen 首次加入 X，分享了他关于开放模型(open models)的信。
英文原文
Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.
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博主晒出AMD贴纸并调侃股价起飞，表达看多情绪。
@Frenchie_ @AMD 这些贴纸甚至更好看。 $AMD 起飞（go brrrr） https://t.co/O3dvaUG83a
英文原文
@Frenchie_ @AMD These stickers were even better. $AMD go brrrr https://t.co/O3dvaUG83a
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澄清AMD是AAOI首批CPO客户，并指出LITE/COHR/SIVE为CPO激光器核心标的。
@Thomus0x 呃，Rosenblatt 6月30日的研报指出 AMD 是 $AAOI 共封装光学(CPO) 最可能的首批客户。我不会说他们离实现还遥遥无期。 根据摩根士丹利最近的研报，$LITE / $COHR / $SIVE 目前在 CPO 激光器可见性方面看起来就是你最看好的前三大标的。
英文原文
@Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.
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SIVE CEO称可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO为行业方向，激光器产能是瓶颈。
不完全适用于 $AAOI（他们也在研发共封装光学(CPO)，只是商业化进度稍落后）。 最近有一档名为“市场洞察：光子学与AI”的播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO。 最有趣的观点是： “可插拔光模块在未来10年仍将存在”。 近期有很多关于CPO和RNG/MRC优化将蚕食可插拔模块总可寻址市场(TAM)的论点，但看来可插拔模块将长期存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径并行（CEO也表示，除了CPO，非平面光学(NPO)在未来5年也是主要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram表示，制造产能和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。这可能指的是上游连续波(CW)激光器扩产面临的现有瓶颈。 从播客来看，重点似乎放在可插拔市场，因为其短期TAM更大（考虑到 $JBL 和其他玩家，这可以理解），而CPO则是行业发展的北极星指标。 因此，如果 $SIVE 能通过并购获取更多可插拔光收发器IP（就像 $LITE 收购Cloud Light那样），可能会很有趣。 但简而言之： 未来路径多样，可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO似乎是行业发展的北极星方向。 感觉鉴于行业需求增长速度快于所有供应商的集体产能，合格的激光器供应商都有生存空间。
英文原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
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博主提及向 Lisa 介绍头巾市场的潜在规模。
@jukan05 我特意向 Lisa 提到了头巾（bandana）的潜在市场规模（TAM）。
英文原文
@jukan05 I made sure to tell Lisa about the bandana TAM potential.
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调研反馈积极，看好AMD CPO路线及上游激光器供应商SIVE。
@88magalhaes 主要看点是高管对共封装光学(CPO)主题性的评论。涉及 $AMD 以及超大规模云服务商的采用情况和时间表。针对此前因延迟消息而抛售的 CPO 板块，调研反馈非常积极。对于该板块中的 $SIVE 反馈也非常积极，因为它是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光器供应商，而这两家公司都与 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有关。但由于保密原因，无法获得直接供应商的确认。
英文原文
@88magalhaes Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.
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渠道称AMD将采用CPO，且供应链无延迟，反驳延迟报告。
来自 $AMD 推进 AI 的渠道调研： Helios 网络设备合作伙伴告诉我，他们预计 AMD 将在未来几代 Helios 扩展网络中采用共封装光学(CPO)。 并预计其他超大规模客户+行业也会走上 CPO 路线。 一位参与超大规模客户 CPO 项目的 AI 基础设施高管表示，他们未看到 CPO 扩展供应链有任何延迟迹象。 这反驳了近期第三方关于延迟的报道。 这是非正式评论，并非 AMD 或合作伙伴的官方指引。
英文原文
From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route. One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays. Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports. This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.
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转发AMD推文，表达情感共鸣。
转发 @AMD：这种感觉是相互的。
英文原文
RT @AMD : The feelings mutual.
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博主称赞AMD社媒团队，调侃其周边产品比芯片更抢手。
@beauty_oe 特别向 $AMD 超酷的社会媒体团队致敬！Lisa 做的头巾确实很酷，可能比他们的 CPU/加速器卖得还快。https://t.co/tY7VRyOnC9
英文原文
@beauty_oe Special shoutout to the super cool social media team at $AMD! Lisa does make cool bandanas, probably would sell out faster than their CPUs/accelerators. https://t.co/tY7VRyOnC9