全部推文
共 6364 条 · 第 3 / 213 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
Citadel借加息恐慌低价抄底AI资产，展现逆向操作策略。
效仿 Citadel： > 几天前呼吁意外加息，引发市场恐慌 > 随即出手，买入数十亿美元被清算的对冲基金 AI 资产 > 最终并未加息 > “牛市驱动因素依然完好” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq
英文原文
Be Citadel: > calls for unexpected rate hike few days ago, causing market panic > reaches out and buys billions of liquidated hedge fund AI assets > no rate hike > “Bull market drivers are fully intact” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq
-
空头势力消退，市场情绪回暖。
空头们又回去冬眠了。
英文原文
The bears have gone back into hibernation
-
特朗普宣布取消对伊打击并达成核协议，博主感叹世事多变。
特朗普宣布美国已取消对伊朗的打击行动。 并表示双方已就协议的框架达成一致，以开放海峡并终止核计划。 过去6个月里，还有谁觉得自己老了好几岁吗？ https://t.co/4PK671c548
英文原文
Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran. And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program. Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months? https://t.co/4PK671c548
-
AI激光器供应危机加剧，验证AAOI等标的瓶颈逻辑。
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE 峰会上警告称，AI 数据中心（AI DCs）用磷化铟(InP)激光器的供应缺口： 正面临比存储芯片更严重的供应链危机。 凭借 Lumentum 的 5 座 InP 晶圆厂，其出货量将比客户需求低 30% 以上。 这在目前的电吸收调制激光器(EMLs)上尤为明显，但随着共封装光学(CPO)的推进，已扩展至连续波(CW)激光器。 我一直看好 $AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR 带来的激光器卡脖子+瓶颈逻辑。很高兴这一论点开始得到验证。
英文原文
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
-
反驳散户影响市场论，强调基本面驱动股价。
@optionsreaper 即使散户不知道他的存在，他的观点在 $SNDK 或 $BE 上本来也会兑现。散户对 NAND（闪存）短缺或超大规模云服务商对 Bloom 的需求不会有任何改变。将其贬低为仅仅是散户在模仿他，也是非常糟糕的。
英文原文
@optionsreaper His ideas would have played out anyway with $SNDK or $BE even without anyone from retail knowing he existed. Retail wouldn't have changed a thing with NAND shortages or hyperscaler demand for Bloom. Downplaying that to just retail copying him is also terrible.
-
博主感叹深度研究常被媒体误读为迷因股，故对他人遭遇有同理心。
@Jacktecau990 我并不惊讶。我可以去参加会议进行共封装光学(CPO)渠道调研，发现独特的超大规模云服务商供应链联系并随后得到证实，进行晶圆收入建模，构思通过并购实现收入增长的策略，通过相关员工关系(ER)电话会议记录/SEC文件持续检查出货量时间表，通过机构研报进行竞争对手分析，进行总可寻址市场(TAM)分析。然后免费发布这些论点。然而媒体却忽略所有底层工作，将这一想法标签化为单纯的“迷因股”。如果它出现回调，即使处于早期阶段，我也会在X上遭受大量人身攻击。所以我对他人有更多的同理心。
英文原文
@Jacktecau990 I'm not surprised. I could go to conferences to do CPO channel checks, find unique hyperscaler supply chain links that later get confirmed, do wafer revenue modeling, think of a strategy for revenue ramping through M&A, constantly check volume timelines through related ER transcripts/SEC filings, competitor analysis through institutional notes, TAM analysis. Then post that thesis all for free over time. Only for media media ignore all the underlying work then label the idea as just a meme stock. And if it ever corrects, I get a bunch of personal attacks on X, even if it's early in the timeline. So I have more empathy than others.
-
驳斥媒体对 Leopold 的恶意攻击，肯定其独特策略与优异业绩。
媒体对 Leopold 的定性以及 X 上的反应简直荒谬。将他从 $SNDK 到 $BE 的成功多年论点框架描述为“崩溃”或“失败”。在 7 月令人惊讶的暴跌后，再对他进行人身攻击，目睹这一切真是可悲。这几乎就像每个人都在为他人的倒台欢呼。是的，7 月的暴跌暴露了 SA（Serenity Asset Management）在杠杆、流动性管理和对冲方面的问题。但他目前的年初至今（YTD）表现仍为 +80%，位列表现最好的对冲基金之列。而且经历这一切后，他仍然持有公开股票（只是去除了杠杆）。我认为他正在做独特且成功的事情。而这引来了他人的嫉妒。
英文原文
The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.
-
博主澄清CPO延迟谣言，认为亚洲股错杀，看好MSSCorp及早期受益股。
@Erick_P23 核心逻辑更偏向于共封装光学(CPO)的规模化，预计其复杂性将使MSSCorp成为检测良率方面的垄断型瓶颈（他们声称目标市场份额为90%）。尽管这些技术也可用于其他领域。 $FORM 的产能爬坡早了很多，所以下次财报中营收可能会开始显现？ 无论如何，亚洲概念股因CPO时间表延迟的报道而大幅抛售，但我通过$AMD 大会上的渠道核实发现该报道不实。 我认为我的观点没有改变，更多的是在等待2027年。 像Shunsin这样拥有更多确认的规模化交换机出货量，以及像 $AAOI / $SIVE 这样的激光概念股，其产能爬坡要早得多。在我看来，这只是时间线的问题，以及市场何时愿意对此进行定价。
英文原文
@Erick_P23 Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.
-
博主转向关注上游瓶颈，预计能源和新云将因算力短缺跑赢。
@Schulz_Research 态势感知/Leopold 关于美国向推理(推理)和巨大能源需求转移的观点完全正确。我在2025年曾对 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等新型云服务商(新云)持有类似论点。但我个人更转向关注上游瓶颈(上游瓶颈)和网络(网络)。不幸的是，基金未能完全熬过回撤。我们在内存集中度(内存集中度)上有重叠，但鉴于算力/容量短缺，我预计来自 $BE、$TE 的能源/电网或如 $SHAZ/$IREN 的新云将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
-
博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
-
四大云厂商上调Capex指引，看好上游半导体及AI供应链瓶颈环节重估。
作为业绩复盘：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 将 2026 年联合资本支出(Capex)指引上调至约 7200-7450 亿美元。此前指引为 6950-7250 亿美元。亚马逊：2200 亿；谷歌：1950-2050 亿；Meta：1300-1450 亿；微软：1750 亿。我们已看到显著的降杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能还会持续，谁知道呢）。但中长期来看，我不太明白为何有人看空上游半导体或新云厂商。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都指出了算力短缺、云需求上升+定价权增强，或增加芯片/网络支出。我对许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是：当数万亿美元资本流入磷化铟(InP)衬底或存储（此前均被视为廉价大宗商品）甚至能源领域时。许多此前在电信周期中被视为无用甚至“卖马桶”的当前 AI 概念股。当拐点到来且资本支出流入其资产负债表时，估值将重估。正如过去几年 $NVDA GPU、今年存储、未来几年 CPU/MLCC、2027 年共封装光学(CPO)、2027 年玻璃衬底、2027 年 800V 等所见。
英文原文
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
-
博主调侃需靠运气才能清仓仅持有一股的IREN。
@SammyJ51 Kenneth 需要施展一些魔法，才能让我清掉我持有的 1 股 $IREN。
英文原文
@SammyJ51 Kenneth will need to do some magic to liquidate me of my 1 $IREN share.
-
认为RDDT财报后跌幅被夸大，看好其变现策略及AI授权前景。
@amitisinvesting 同意对 $RDDT 的看法，我认为财报/预期带来的 -22.61% 反应似乎被夸大了。他们的变现策略似乎正在发挥奇效。鉴于前沿实验室总是需要更多数据，AI 授权(AI licensing)似乎也是不可避免的。这是最让人困惑的抛售之一。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Agreed on $RDDT, the -22.61% reaction seems overblown to me off those earnings/projections. Their monetization strategy seem to be working wonders. AI licensing seems inevitable as well given your frontier labs always want more data. Was one of the more confusing selloffs.
-
Reddit业绩超预期却暴跌，博主对这种非理性抛售表示惊讶。
@tax_evader666 美国日活跃用户(DAU)*，他们在财务指标上大超预期，并将远期指引上调至高于市场共识。但人们喜欢每次股价下跌时都编造一些叙事。$RDDT 暴跌 22.6% 让我非常惊讶。
英文原文
@tax_evader666 US DAU*, they beat heavily on financial metrics and raised forward guidance above street expectations. But people like to make up some narrative every time something drops. -22.6% selloff on $RDDT is very surprising to me.
-
Reddit财报全面超预期，博主批评市场无视基本面而因DAU微跌抛售。
$RDDT 财报简评： 营收：8.049亿美元 vs 预期7.304亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：1.25美元 vs 约0.95美元。 净利润：2.528亿美元 vs 1.965亿美元。 Q3指引： 营收：8.60-8.70亿美元 vs 8.291亿美元 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(Adjusted EBITDA)：3.85-3.95亿美元 vs 3.69亿美元 财务数据全面超预期，但市场总喜欢编造新故事来解释股价下跌22.6%。 上季度：“AI将颠覆Reddit导致营收下滑！” 本季度：“看，日活跃用户(DAU)跌了0.6%！”（完全无视营收和盈利增长）
英文原文
$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
-
反驳媒体看空AI，指出巨头需求旺盛且韩国半导体大涨。
本周要点速览： 媒体：超大规模云厂商建设过剩，正在抛售多余算力。 -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, 和 $AMZN：算力需求远超产能。资本支出(Capex)持续飙升。 机构：紧急加息或三次加息，行情就此终结。 -> Kevin Warsh：不会加息。 散户/媒体：AI因是泡沫而崩盘。 -> 城堡证券(Citadel)正寻求买入AI杠杆对冲基金头寸：👀 Jim Cramer：清仓所有杠杆型数据中心(DC)股票。 -> 韩国市场：SK海力士(SK Hynix) +30%，三星(Samsung) +26.81%
英文原文
Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%
-
POET与Sivers合作加速，2027H1订单落地，验证CPO等新技术拐点临近。
仔细想想，$POET 的光学中介层（optical interposer）业务与 $SIVE 的关联比我想象的更重要。起初措辞是2026年底的“准备就绪”，但 $POET 将其升级为与 Sivers 激光器合作的“量产”，预计2026年底实现。因此，从 $JBL 到 $POET 的批量订单应在2027年上半年落地。这很合理，因为 Sivers 已完成超认购的机构轮融资以支持未来大规模生产。顺便一提，难以置信已是八月，距2027年仅剩5个月……这是我预判玻璃基板、共封装光学(CPO)、800V 及新架构开始放量的拐点窗口。
英文原文
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.
-
看好$XFAB作为早期$TSEM潜力股，CPO预期未计入模型。
@jim29223471 是的，我的想法是 $XFAB 可能成为早期的 $TSEM，作为一家实际的碳化硅(SiC)/微机电系统(MEMS)晶圆代工厂，在他们发展光子学部门的过程中起到桥梁作用。他们重申了对共封装光学(CPO)的敞口，且2028年的时间表尚未被计入任何营收模型中（这一点我很欣赏）。可能还稍微有点早，但我们正接近2026年下半年的节点，且管理层指引(ER)非常有帮助。
英文原文
@jim29223471 Yeah my thought was $XFAB could be an early $TSEM with actual SiC/MEMs foundry kinda bridging the gap while they develop their photonics arm. They did reiterate exposure to CPO and 2028 timeline isn't priced into any revenue models yet (which I liked about them). Might be a tad early, but we're getting closer in H2 2026 and the ER statements were very helpful.
-
XFAB确认CPO与800V布局，验证投资逻辑，预期2027-2028年估值重估。
关于 $XFAB 投资者关系(ER)电话会议纪要： 简单回顾一下，我对 $XFAB 晶圆代工增长机会的观点源于碳化硅(SiC)在800V架构中的应用，以及光子工厂(MTP)在共封装光学(CPO)领域的适用性。 - $XFAB：“我们在共封装光学方面正在取得进展”。 - “向800V架构的过渡……预计将推动对碳化硅(SiC)和氮化镓(GaN)的需求……对 $XFAB 而言”。 所以，那些自信地唱空 $XFAB、声称其“在800V、光子学、CPO方面零敞口”的分析师/人士，结果被证明完全错了。 在我分享观点时，行业材料显示日月光(ASE)等公司将光子工厂+ $XFAB 列为欧洲即将崛起的CPO玩家。 filings显示他们普遍涉及如 $NVTS / $POWI 等名称。 很高兴 $XFAB 出面明确澄清，表示他们正在开发CPO/800V相关技术。 回到ER纪要： - “我们继续预计光子学量产将于2028年开始”。公司目前有三个硅光子项目正在与关键合作伙伴开发中。 我原本以为会在2027年下半年爬坡，但可能早估了几个月。 - 多个新的数据中心设计订单，例如3个新的碳化硅设计订单（与800V部署启动后2027年普遍爬坡一致）。 因此，一旦这些在2027-2028年爬坡（市场往往会提前定价），我预计 $XFAB 将基于增长机会获得估值重估。 总结： - 当前营收数据并不惊艳。 - $XFAB 确认直接涉足CPO和800V转型（这是投资逻辑的最大胜利） - 800V敞口带来的碳化硅机会（应在2027年） - 光子学量产时间表为2028年 很高兴CPO/800V敞口的投资逻辑在此次ER中得到确认。营收爬坡可能需要一点等待时间。
英文原文
For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.
-
亚马逊资本支出上调及算力短缺证实，AXTI 产能扩张且供不应求，看多 AI 半导体及光通信供应链。
几条财报摘要，重点是我看好的 $AXTI 和 $AMZN： 亚马逊： - 将 2026 年资本支出上调至 2200 亿美元（此前为 2000 亿美元），部分原因是内存成本上升，这对 $MU 和三星是利好。 - 即使达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊的产能仍无法满足 2026 年的所有需求；Jassy 预计 2027 年情况相同。 - 大多数 2027 年的新增产能已被预订，2028 年的大量产能也已预订。 主要浏览了上游半导体板块。$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN 和 $MSFT 均指出算力短缺。 几周前关于 Meta 等公司“算力过剩”以及超大规模云厂商削减支出的所有叙事……全是胡扯。 亚马逊财报对 AI 半导体交易非常看多。 AXTI： - AXT 计划在 2026 年将磷化铟(InP)产能翻倍，2027 年再翻倍。 - 预计这将使 AXT 成为“迄今为止全球最大的磷化铟生产商”——冲鸭。 - 第二季度营收为 4760 万美元，创 AXT 历史单季新高（来自数据中心应用的 InP 营收创纪录达 3070 万美元）。 - 营收环比增长 77%，同比增长 164%。 - InP 营收-产能目标：2026 年底每季度 6000 万美元。 - 2027 年底每季度 1.3 亿美元。 由于管理层表示他们将“寻找任何方式增加产能扩张”，1.3 亿美元的目标可能会进一步提高。 管理层称报告中的积压订单仍远高于 1 亿美元，但该数字已不能反映所有可用需求。 “无论我们增加产能的速度多快，客户需求持续超过供应。” 800G/1.6T 正在驱动当前周期，而 NPO/CPO 将其延伸至 2027 年之后。 此外，他们的目标是 50% 以上的毛利率：“我们绝对应该瞄准一个以五开头的数字。” 中国需求翻倍有余，且与 Casela、$COHR 和 $LITE 的协议并未实质性推动第二季度业绩。 这甚至还没有考虑我预测的随着 InP 衬底瓶颈加剧带来的巨大平均售价(ASP)上涨。 摘要： - 亚马逊算力需求过大，需要资本支出来满足，因此上游半导体起飞。 - AXT 是全球最大的 InP 衬底供应商，高毛利率，产能扩张，且供应跟不上需求。 看多来自亚马逊的需求端+资本支出。看多上游光通信供应链，因为需求过大。
英文原文
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
-
调侃AXTI单日暴涨64%是美股常态。
@tsorfF7 $AXTI 今天 casually（随意地）涨了 64% 哈哈，你们的市场里这只是平常的一天。 https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
英文原文
@tsorfF7 $AXTI casually up 64% today lol, just a normal day in your markets. https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
-
Citadel清算情境感知基金后，AI及半导体板块次日大幅反弹。
Citadel 真的刚刚清算了 Situational Awareness（情境感知基金）…… 然后在第二天拉起了整个市场？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 以及其他许多股票。这必须是我见过的最疯狂的清算之一 https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
英文原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
-
博主调侃有人没看懂推文中的梗。
@blackwalletfr 有人没看懂这个梗 https://t.co/l5ph939UxK
英文原文
@blackwalletfr Someone didnt get the reference https://t.co/l5ph939UxK
-
博主驳斥对 Leopold 募资的质疑，认同其将当前超调视为最佳买入机会。
关于 Leopold 募资，周围有很多愚蠢的评论。在 $BE、$SNDK、$SHAZ 等股票 7 月出现剧烈回撤后。请记住……这位金融界人士：1. 身高 6 英尺 5 英寸；2. 蓝眼睛；3. 对冲基金经理。可能比你帅，且今年截至 6 月收益达 439%。关于回撤，Aschenbrenner 承认基金“未能幸免”于市场动荡，尤其是亚洲市场。FT 另据报道，杠杆放大了其非凡收益和近期亏损。他将此次抛售描述为自 2025 年初以来最佳的买入机会。我同意他的观点，并希望他募资成功。因为目前的大部分抛售看起来像是因强制去杠杆而超调了。
英文原文
There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.
-
POET光学中介层进展升级，Sivers从准备就绪迈向2026年底量产。
@A22GEO $POET 的光学中介层（optical interposer）部分其实是一个非常有趣的更新，并谈到了 $SIVE。因为对于 Sivers 和 Poet 来说，这是关于 2026 年底“生产”（production）的时间表措辞升级。回想 Sivers 发布新闻稿时，用的词是“生产准备就绪”（production readiness）。
英文原文
@A22GEO The $POET optical interposer piece is actually a very interesting update and talks about $SIVE. Since it's a material timeline upgrade wording for "production" EOY 2026, for Sivers + Poet. Back when Sivers did their PR it was "production readiness" https://t.co/EHkOogR39K
-
博主认为当前估值极具吸引力，重申AAOI和NBIS的营收拐点预期。
@WangHou4128 我不认为我（或任何人）能准确预测底部。否则如果他们真知道，早就做每周期权了。 不过很难想象某些标的会跌得更低，比如 $AAOI 的市值已接近1倍年化远期营收。$POET 跌幅巨大，其市值约10.8亿美元，而现金就有约8亿美元。 总体而言，即使 Leopond 也认为当前估值极具吸引力，所以他正在募资买入下跌。不过谁说得准呢？ 但从中长期来看，就我个人的投资逻辑而言，我预计一旦营收预测兑现为盈利，行情就会展开。 我重申 $AAOI 的营收拐点在2027年上半年末……$NBIS 的营收拐点在2026年第四季度，等等，这是我的个人估算。 当然，在此之前会有大量波动。
英文原文
@WangHou4128 I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.
-
看好宇树科技IPO，认为其商业化领先且具吸引力，但担忧地缘禁令风险。
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 对宇树科技(Unitree Robotics)持非常乐观的看法，因为它是目前的全球领导者之一。 相对于美国Figure（估值390亿美元），其$60亿的首次公开募股(IPO)对我来说极具吸引力。因为宇树在商业化方面领先更多。 但从西方角度来看，中国未来的人形机器人被禁，这可能会稍微损害估值。 无论如何，如果可能的话，我个人会持有宇树的头寸（但由于地理位置限制无法做到），因为我同意埃隆的说法，即人形机器人将是未来。
英文原文
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 Very favorable view on Unitree Robotics, since they're one of the global leaders right now. The $6B IPO is extremely attractive to me, relative to Figure in the US (which is valued at $39B). Since Unitree is much further ahead in commercialization. But coming from a Western standpoint, China's future humanoids did get banned so that might hurt valuations a bit. Regardless, I personally would have positions in Unitree if I could (but can't due to geography) since I'd agree with Elon in saying humanoids are going to be the future.
-
FORM财报显示CPO业务加速，处于早期爆发前夜，看好硅光子产业链。
以下是 $FORM 财报电话会议中关于共封装光学(CPO)的一些有趣要点： 由于“共封装光学(CPO)的加速增长”，系统收入几乎翻倍。 2026年Q1：“我们现在预计2026年CPO收入将达到1000万至2000万美元区间的高位。” 2026年Q2（当前）：“预计第三季度末将超过该区间，全年整体将显著超过2000万美元水平。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项[CPO]业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO采用前景。我们是否预期时间表会略微提前？ 答：“我想说的是短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示时间表没有显著提前。 引用生产基础设施（不仅是研发）用于： - 今年晚些计划量产的CPO芯片日益增长的出货量 + 用于扩展和扩展交换机的测试插入。 - 似乎CPO部分通过 $TSM 的 COUPE 流程 [可能对应 $NVDA 的CPO产品] - “CPO部分确实通过那10%的客户流向。” 因此，鉴于管理层提到CPO芯片出货量增长，测试环节正在爬坡。 “我们CPO业务的近期快速增长令人兴奋，我们认为这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中广泛采用的非常早期阶段。” 简而言之：从根本上说，CPO作为一个主题仍处于非常早期阶段，但由于它现在开始出现在财报中，应该很快就会爆发（设备/测试玩家通常会在光引擎/激光器出货量爬坡之前先出现）。 个人而言，一旦所有去杠杆过程停止，我认为市场将开始更加关注这一点。
英文原文
Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
-
微软2026年投资预期未变，数字差异源于会计重分类。
@Jespabe 不完全是，这只是会计上的表述框架。微软的投资预期其实没变，只是由于数据中心(DC)租赁的重分类，2026年的数字从$190B变成了$175B。所以大致预测是一样的。
英文原文
@Jespabe Not really, it's accounting framing. Microsoft investment expectations are the same but it's $175B for 2026 instead of $190B for 2026 because of how they reclassified DC leases. So roughly the same projections.
-
质疑超大规模云厂商算力短缺说法，认为新云已锁定GW级容量。
@og_mcleod 抛售新云厂商，尽管它们已锁定GW级算力容量…… 如果超大规模云服务商整体存在算力短缺，这对我来说将是一个谜。
英文原文
@og_mcleod Selling off neoclouds, that has secured GW-scale compute capacity... While there's hyperscaler-wide compute shortages will be an engima to me.