全部推文
共 6671 条 · 第 3 / 223 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
披露 Situational Awareness 基金 Q2 十大重仓股及持仓金额。
刚查看了 Leopold 的 Situational Awareness 基金截至 6 月 30 日的 Q2 13F 最新持仓： 1. $SNDK - 56.74 亿美元 2. $MU - 55.74 亿美元 3. $BE - 18.99 亿美元 4. $TSM - 12.65 亿美元 5. $NBIS - 12.32 亿美元 6. $CRWV - 7.445 亿美元 7. $CORZ - 6.656 亿美元 8. $STM - 5.843 亿美元（新增） 9. $APLD - 4.69 亿美元 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
英文原文
Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
-
指出市场忽视SIVE在CPO激光器的地位，且过度聚焦可插拔模块。
@dockery58 是的，共封装光学(CPO)的出货量甚至还没开始……大家都忘了 $SIVE 是主要的 CPO 激光器供应商，因为管理层过于聚焦无线/5G/固定无线接入(FWA)/卫星通信。像 $JBL 这样的可插拔模块(Pluggables)本应是 2028 年 CPO 放量的过渡桥梁，但不知为何成了主导焦点。
英文原文
@dockery58 Yeah, CPO volumes haven’t even started… everyone forgot that $SIVE was a major CPO laser supplier because management focused so much around wireless/5g/fwa/satcom. Pluggables like $JBL were supposed to be the bridge for 2028 CPO ramp but somehow became the dominant focus.
-
建议SIVE聚焦核心业务并解雇向媒体妥协的高管。
我不想在这里扮演积极投资者(Activist Investor)的角色： 但我希望最近的暴跌能给 $SIVE 传递一个信息：投资者基础+专注领域才是真正重要的（不是瑞典，不是无线通信）。 以及他们应该解雇那些向当地媒体批评低头的任何董事会成员或高管： 还有
英文原文
I don’t want to play investor activism here: But I hope the recent crash sends a message to $SIVE what investor base + focus really matters (not Sweden, not wireless). As well as that they should fire whatever board member or executive gave into local media criticisms: And
-
台湾半导体表现优异，Foci 快速复苏，质疑财报无视宏观。
值得注意的是，台湾的表现远远超越世界其他地区，如美国/欧盟。 Foci（$NVDA / $TSM FAU 供应商）股价从 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800，且在 7 月后恢复得极快。 不确定像 Etron 或其他公司的财报是否荒谬到完全无视宏观环境？https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
英文原文
Very interesting to notice Taiwan wildly outperform the rest of the World like US/EU. Foci ($NVDA / $TSM FAU supplier) went from 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800, and recovered insanely fast from July. Not sure if earnings like Etron or others are just absurd to not care about macro? https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
-
博主澄清发帖仅为个人兴趣，非职业行为。
@shankbrgowda 我只是发布我一天中发现的有趣内容。只是出于兴趣在做这件事，不是一份工作。
英文原文
@shankbrgowda I just post stuff I find interesting throughout the day. Just doing this for fun, not a job
-
美国拨款1.74亿保障镓供应链，利好AA及Sojitz。
美国战争部宣布提供1.74亿美元融资以保障镓(Gallium)供应链安全。受益方包括： - $AA (Alcoa Corp)，因其冶炼厂生产镓。 - Sojitz (2768)，作为日本合资的下游采购合作伙伴。 很高兴看到美国在关键矿物供应链上的投资。 https://t.co/fyi203MH2B
英文原文
US Department of War announces $174M financing for securing Gallium Supply Chains. Beneficiaries are: - $AA (Alcoa Corp) for Gallium production at its refinery. - Sojitz (2768) as the Japanese JV offtake partner Good to see US critical minerals supply chains investments. https://t.co/fyi203MH2B
-
博主因AXTI和IREN暴跌，开始相信九月是全年最差月份的说法。
在目睹了从 $AXTI 到 $IREN 等股票被“核爆”式暴跌后……我开始相信那个“九月是全年最差月份”的都市传说了。
英文原文
After seeing everything from $AXTI to $IREN get nuked… I’m starting to believe in the: “September is the worst month of the year” myth. https://t.co/sck3Y0pOg2
-
博主澄清无意参与治理，重申看好某公司运营并继续持仓。
@Matrix_B0SS @SiversSemicond 我不想加入任何董事会或成为积极股东(Activist Investor)，请别再推荐我了哈哈！我只是分享我对他们如何成为像 $LITE 那样公司的看法，而且从运营层面看，他们处于一个极佳的位置。归根结底，这取决于管理层对其愿景的执行能力，而这部分我无法掌控。我仍持有我的头寸，但人们应自行判断所发生的情况。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS @SiversSemicond I don’t want to be on any board or be an activist investor, pls stop recommending me lol! I’m just putting out my thoughts on how I see them become a $LITE type company, and operationally they’re in an amazing spot. In the end, it all comes down to the leadership’s execution on their vision, and that part is out of my hands. I’m still holding my positions, but people should make their own judgement on what they see happening.
-
博主分享上班第一天的动态。
@johnternus 上班第一天 https://t.co/Zh4xtoAcah
英文原文
@johnternus Good first day at work https://t.co/Zh4xtoAcah
-
博主调侃鞋企转型云厂商的荒谬性，并否认相关说法。
@GGFitim1 绝对不是！但这和那家鞋类公司 $BIRD 变成新云厂商一样让我觉得好笑。
英文原文
@GGFitim1 Definitely not! But this is just as amusing to me as that shoe company $BIRD becoming a neocloud.
-
博主对相机公司入局光模块市场及YouTuber持股表示困惑。
@GreekFreakHoops 啊……这让事情变得比那家“恐龙相机公司”进入1.6T光收发器市场还要令人困惑。我正在看新闻，看来是因为那位YouTuber持有8.5%的股份？
英文原文
@GreekFreakHoops ah... that makes things even more confusing than the dinosaur camera company entering the 1.6T optical transceiver market. I'm reading the news now, apparently it was because of the Youtuber's 8.5% stake?
-
GPRO拟并购光子公司进军AI光模块，博主对此跨界竞争表示意外。
什么……$GPRO 在宣布计划与光子学公司“Starman Optical”合并后上涨了 79.17%。 旨在为 AI 数据中心制造美国本土的 800G/1.6T 光收发器。 GoPro 试图与 $AAOI 竞争，这绝对不在我的雷达范围内。 https://t.co/5z2XXHaxvs
英文原文
What... $GPRO is up 79.17% after planning to merge with a photonics company "Starman Optical" To build US 800G/1.6T optical transceivers for AI data centers. GoPro trying to compete with $AAOI was definitely not on my radar. https://t.co/5z2XXHaxvs
-
看好AAOI 2027年表现及AXTI衬底瓶颈，提示短期抛压与稀释风险。
@DZMakeMoney 我无法就人们应如何处理交易提供建议。就个人而言，我认为 $AAOI 在 2027 年将表现优异，且 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈/卡脖子环节已得到验证。对于 AXT 而言，更多取决于其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 等协议带来的平均售价(ASP)提升。AXT 近期因宏观因素受高贝塔 AI 板块抛售的负面影响。AOI 有一笔令人失望的 6 亿美元可转换优先股(ATM)发行，造成大量短期压力。但这不影响其 2027 年光模块(transceiver)需求可见度，且他们应很快完成 1.6T 认证。过去两个月出现大幅回调，但取决于你发现什么有吸引力，也有许多机会。
英文原文
@DZMakeMoney I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades. Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated. With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is negatively affected by high beta AI sector selloff recently with macro. AOI has a very disappointing $600m ATM so that’s a lot of near term overhang. But doesn’t affect their 2027 transceiver demand visibility and they should finish 1.6T qualifications soon. Past 2 month has seen major corrections, but there’s a lot of opportunity too depending on what you find compelling
-
分析英伟达投资偏好及半导体、机器人供应链关键瓶颈与趋势。
@Bejewele_din_Fr - 英伟达($NVDA) 喜欢投资专用集成电路(ASIC) 公司 - 内存/多层陶瓷电容器(MLCC)/ABF载板/绝缘体上硅(SOI) 因长期可见性而令人兴奋(brrr) - 传统DRAM 因中国内存向高端转移而令人兴奋(brrr) - 中欧就企业问题展开博弈 - 共封装光学(CPO) 时间线保持不变 - 机器人领域的行星滚柱丝杠很酷
英文原文
@Bejewele_din_Fr - Nvidia likes investing in ASIC companies - Memory/MLCC/ABF/SOI brrr from long term visibility - legacy dram to brrr from Chinese memory moving to higher end - China EU fighting over companies - cpo timeline in tact - planetary roller screws in robotics are cool
-
SIVERS 运营理想但沟通糟糕致股价大跌，属执行失败。
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea 两者皆有，主要围绕沟通。运营层面看起来理想，拥有捷普(Jabil)、格芯(GlobalFoundries)、Ayar 以及约 6 个可插拔模块项目，且在重大瓶颈期拥有 2 个晶圆厂产能。$JBL 的时间线符合我的预期。但沟通重点集中在短期无线/收入+财务数据以安抚当地投资者，而非共封装光学(CPO)等其他重大未来经济机会。沟通也非常糟糕且含糊其辞，尤其是与两个月前相比，关于纳斯达克上市(Nasdaq listing)的表述。这是我非常不满的唯一实质性延误，因为尽管完成了 57 亿瑞典克朗的机构融资轮，这仍属于执行失败。CFO 添加的法律措辞毫无理由地引入了不确定性，而此前并无多少不确定性。市场毫不犹豫地让 $SIVERS 股价因这种愚蠢的规避措辞下跌 28%。
英文原文
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea Bit of both, mainly around communication. Operationally things look ideal, they have Jabil, globalfoundries, Ayar, and ~6 pluggable engagements, with 2 foundry capacity during a major bottleneck. $JBL timelines were in line with what I expected. But communication focused around focused on near term wireless/revenue + financials to appease local investors. Instead of significant future economic opportunities for CPO/others. Communication was also horrendous and noncommittal, especially around Nasdaq listing compared to two months ago. This was the only material delay I’m very unhappy with, since it’s an execution failure despite having the 57 SEK institutional fundraising round. And the legal language that the CFO added just introduces uncertainty for no reason, when there wasn’t much before then. Market definitely not hestitate sending sivers down 28% from that stupid language hedging
-
批评CEO受瑞典文化影响，放弃长期执行转向短期无线收入，应解雇推手。
@Broasted_King @wannabepanacea 他们自我施加了瑞典的“高罂粟花综合征”（Tall Poppy Syndrome），从雄心勃勃的执行转向“评估市场状况”，从谈论2028年的机会转向短期无线收入。任何促使CEO像另一家瑞典公司那样行动和沟通的人都应该被解雇。
英文原文
@Broasted_King @wannabepanacea They self imposed Swedish tall poppy syndrome and went from ambitious execution. To “evaluating market conditions” and went from talking about 2028 opportunities to near term wireless revenue Whoever pushed the CEO to act and communicate like another Swedish company should get fired
-
批评 Sivers 管理层缺乏重组紧迫感，忽视光子学机遇。
@wannabepanacea 管理层的感觉与我日益脱节。Sivers 本可利用当前的瓶颈围绕光子学进行彻底重组。利用美国资本加速时间表，并借助纳斯达克(NASDAQ)推动 1.6T/共封装光学(CPO) 的进一步增长。但感觉不到紧迫感，尤其是在上市时间表上。我也真心不理解为何持续强调卫星通信(SATCOM)/无线业务，这部分本应剥离。或者那些相对于光子学总可寻址市场(TAM)而言微不足道的短期合同价值。完全没有提及 Ayar、格芯(GlobalFoundries) 以及美国投资者关心的任何其他大项目。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea Management feels increasingly misaligned with my expections Sivers could use the current bottleneck to radically restructure around photonics. Use US capital to speed up timelines, and leverage NASDAQ for further growth with 1.6T/CPO. But got no sense of urgency, especially on listing timelines. I also genuinely don't understand continuous emphasis on SATCOM/Wireless which would be better off divested. Or the near term contract values that are invisible relative to photonics TAM. Not a single mention of Ayar, globalfoundries, and any other big program that US investors care about.
-
梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
-
看好NVDA高增长及类似半导体ETF的持仓结构
@lijiu163076 $NVDA 明年将以产能受限的 70% 速度增长，这好得离谱。 我的观点是，投资英伟达很难出错，因为它几乎就像一只半导体 ETF？他们现在持有 $INTC、$MRVL、$LITE、$COHR、$NBIS 和联发科的不错份额。
英文原文
@lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good. My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now.
-
持有IREN，看好其与Anthropic合作，但担忧巨额资本支出。
@KnightCapitalYT 我的意思是，我现在确实持有 1 股 $IREN，所以我很希望看到他们与 Anthropic 达成交易。 有泄露的内部备忘录显示，Anthropic 正在寻求在澳大利亚获得更多资源，而这恰好是 IREN 大力投资的国家。 不过，在当前宏观环境下，250-300 亿美元的资本支出(Capex)数字总是让人望而生畏，尽管他们已通过预付款获得了大量融资。
英文原文
@KnightCapitalYT I mean I do have 1 single share of $IREN now, so I'd love to see them get a deal with Anthropic. There were leaked memos suggesting that Anthropic was looking to secure more in Australia, and that just so happens to be the country Iren was heavily investing in. Buuut, the $25-30B capex number is always a bit daunting during current macro, despite securing a lot of financing via prepayments.
-
Anthropic签350亿算力大单，前沿模型需求远超供给能力。
Anthropic 与由 $NVDA 支持的 Lambda 签署了价值 350 亿美元的 AI 算力协议。 $HUT / 数据中心，搭配 Lambda / GPU。 前沿模型的需求正在迅速超越生态系统构建容量的能力。 看起来 Anthropic 正在锁定更多算力……下一家被选中的新云/colo 玩家是谁？ https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
英文原文
Anthropic signs a $35B AI compute deal with $NVDA backed Lambda. $HUT / DC, with Lambda / GPUs. Frontier model demand is rapidly outpacing the ecosystem's ability to build capacity. It also looks like Anthropic is securing more compute... Which neocloud/colo player is next? https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
-
博主认为某事件可能发生在类似窗口，并关注SNDK收盘异动。
@mykwantitative 是的，可能在那个类似的时间窗口内也是如此。看到 $SNDK 在收盘时垂直拉升挺有意思的。
英文原文
@mykwantitative Yep, probably that as well in a similar window. Seeing $SNDK go vertical at close was interesting
-
特朗普称利率过高，$QQQ 闻讯飙升，博主认为此现象有趣。
看到特朗普发表关于潜在加息的评论时，$QQQ 飙升，这很有趣。 回答：“特朗普：不，我非常尊重他，他会做他必须做的事。我认为我们的利率太高了。” https://t.co/vKwUWbUfHx
英文原文
Interesting to see $QQQ spike when Trump gave a comment on potential rate hikes: Answer: "Trump: No, I have a lot of respect for him, and he'll do what he has to do. I think our interest rates are too high." https://t.co/vKwUWbUfHx
-
估值重置已发生，恐惧期是补仓良机，但未来走势难料。
@dBooray 是的，我认为大部分估值重置已经发生。我确信对于大多数人来说，看着回撤却缺乏信心是令人望而生畏的。但恐惧/被迫抛售的时期通常也是最好的机会（例如，我在 Foci 下跌后进行了补仓，现在我的持仓上涨了约 55%）。让我们看看会发生什么，我确信这篇长文其实就是在说我不知道接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
@dBooray Yeah, I think a lot of the valuation reset has already happened. I'm sure for most ppl, seeing a drawdown without much conviction is daunting. But periods of fear/forced selling are typically the best opportunities as well (eg. I avged down on Foci after drop, and now my current position is up ~55%). We'll see what happens, I'm sure this was a pretty long post to say idk what's going to happen
-
无视宏观波动，因AI资本支出强劲且需求失衡，坚持做多AI核心标的。
宏观环境显然在过去几个月削减了高贝塔AI的估值。但我试图专注于基本面。 如果你好奇我的看法： 我们看到了创纪录的长期协议(LTA)可见性： - 存储(至2031年)、光子学(至2029-2030年)等 - $NBIS、$SOL等，尽管资本支出巨大，但算力需求仍存在巨大失衡。 - 加上创纪录的预测（$NVDA 2027年增长70%，$SMCI新增服务器订单超600亿美元等）。 对比： 令人不安的宏观环境： - 沃什表示，如果核心通胀未明确回归2%，美联储“还有更多工作要做”。 - 7月PCE同比为3.7% - 7月就业报告新增就业减少2.3万，失业率4.1% - 10年期美债收益率高企/30年期创2007年以来新高 - 伊朗紧张局势持续 - 日元跌至160/韩国两次加息 且近期加息25个基点的概率为40/60。 这肯定会对融资产生影响，且第三/四阶效应太多，我个人无法完全映射。 我不是宏观专家，但我的看法是： AI建设将继续，预计明年上游投入超1.3万亿美元资本支出，流经许多瓶颈和卡点。 虽然市场削减了远期估值并转向当前盈利/防御性公司。 我不知道会发生什么，尤其是加息概率几乎五五开，且特朗普的帖子可能一夜之间改变情绪。 只要我没看到超大规模云厂商削减资本支出或需求波动的迹象。 尽管宏观波动，我保持做多，因为我想持有控制AI建设未来格局的公司。 如果宏观环境有任何好转迹象，高贝塔股通常恢复最快。
英文原文
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals. If you're curious about my take though: We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend. - combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc). vs. uncomfortable macro where: - Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%. - July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y - July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1% -10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007 - Iran tensions continuing - Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes. There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map. I'm not a macro expert but my take is: The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints. While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies. I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight. As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering. I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout. And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
-
英伟达投资联发科巩固推理地位，或促使AMD与博通结盟。
没错，$NVDA 投资 35 亿美元进入联发科(Mediatek)。 这感觉像是英伟达(Nvidia)正在扮演下一代专用集成电路(ASIC)赢家如 $MRVL / 联发科(Mediatek)的“造王者”，其二级效应是侵蚀 $AVGO 的地位。 这一策略 playbook 类似于他们此前针对像 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 这样的新云厂商(Neoclouds)（相对于超大规模云项目）所采取的做法。 帮助培育下一代领导者，然后使它们在财务和战略上与英伟达保持一致。 我认为这很精彩，但此类举动可能会促使 $AMD、$AVGO 和某些超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)走得更近。 无论如何，此举巩固了英伟达在推理(inference)领域的战略地位（此前超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 曾是长期的看空论点）。
英文原文
Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs) Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia. I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together. Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).
-
推测Alchip或QCOM将跟随MRVL和联发科趋势，ASIC市场整体扩大。
@balllvest 鉴于 $MRVL 和联发科(Mediatek) 的趋势走向，我猜测 Alchip（披露：我持有该股）或 $QCOM 可能是下一个。不过我认为应用专用集成电路(ASIC) 的市场份额对所有这些公司来说都会扩大。
英文原文
@balllvest With how the trends are going with $MRVL and Mediatek. My guess is Alchip (disclosure, I own this) or $QCOM might be next. I think the ASIC pie gets bigger for all of them though.
-
联发科与Ayar合作CPO，SIVE为其激光器供应商但偏上游。
@Matrix_B0SS 我今天才知道，根据公开文件，联发科(Mediatek)是共封装光学(CPO)领域Ayar的合作伙伴（不仅仅是投资者）。当然，众所周知，$SIVE 是 Ayar 的主要激光器供应商。但 Sivers 目前可能处于产业链的上游环节。 https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS I actually learned today that Mediatek is partners with Ayar for CPO (not just investors) from public filings. And of course it's known that $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. But Sivers is probably too far upstream for now. https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
-
英伟达投资联发科，整合ASIC生态并确立标准以对抗博通。
今天，$NVDA 宣布向联发科投资 35 亿美元。看来英伟达正通过“结网”融入更广泛的 ASIC（专用集成电路）生态系统，从 $MRVL 到联发科。并让未来的生态系统与英伟达标准保持一致。（也许也是为了抵御 $AVGO）
英文原文
Today, $NVDA has announced a $3.5B investment into Mediatek. It appears Nvidia is "networking" itself into the broader ASIC ecosystem, from $MRVL to MediaTek. And have future ecosystems aligned with Nvidia standards. (maybe to fend off $AVGO as well) https://t.co/okdGKS51U3
-
博主庆祝瓶颈论点获验证，硅光子普及促成多项新产能协议。
@AizuddinAl4653 这需要你自己估算！我不想给出市值(MC)估算，尤其是当人们可能会误解模型时。我只是在庆祝“瓶颈(chokepoint)”论点得到了外部评论的验证，这些评论提到了类似垄断的市场份额数据。而且，由于硅光子(silicon photonics)的大规模采用，这一瓶颈已经转化为可能带来10多项新长期协议(LTAs)/产能协议。
英文原文
@AizuddinAl4653 That’s for you to estimate yourself! I don’t want to give MC estimates especially if people misinterpret the modeling I’m just celebrating that the chokepoint thesis was validated by external commentary around monopoly-like market share figures. And since the chokepoint converted into likely 10+ new LTAs/capacity agreements because of siph mass adoption.