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对比韩中日美投资者在杠杆、回调及波动性上的不同文化反应。
@AWar1776 仅从我在 X 上观察到的文化现象来看： 韩国人在看到逻辑兑现时，往往早已因杠杆被完全清算。 中国人在市场回调时就会立即卖出，因为他们认为机构在收割他们。 日本人对铠侠(Kioxia)等公司大幅下跌却出奇地平静。 美国人对波动性通常有更高的容忍度。
英文原文
@AWar1776 Just culturally from what I’ve seen on X Koreans are already fully liquidated from leverage by the time they see the thesis play out. Chinese already sell the moment there’s a correction because they think institutions are harvesting them. Japan is somehow calm that Kioxia and others have dropped a lot. US tends to have more tolerance to volatility
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光学股估值偏低，远期高增长与高毛利支撑重估，非泡沫。
@NullContex1s 如果 $AAOI 预测 2027 年 Q3 单季营收 14 亿美元（月均 4.71 亿美元），年化营收 56 亿美元（目标 GAAP 毛利率 40%+）。而它市值仅 80 亿……或者如果个人 $SIVE CW Win 产能预测的中位数阵列营收约 4 亿美元，毛利率 60%。而它市值仅 10 亿。仅应用较低的 20 倍远期市盈率，就可能使光学类股票大幅重估。即使是像 $LITE 这样的其他公司，未来两年订单也已完全售罄，拥有这种需求可见性……并非泡沫。欧洲人倾向于用滚动十二个月(TTM)估值，而光学类股票是 2027-2028 年的成长故事。
英文原文
@NullContex1s If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.
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欧洲投资者保守晒2%收益嘲笑科技股暴跌，但反映的是文化差异而非技术判断。
X平台的好处之一是能观察到文化差异：我看到一群欧洲旁观账户，躺着收银行存款利息，年内收益2%。现在冒出来说，当初投资$AAOI做光子学或三星做内存的都是赌徒。终于等到从$MRVL到$NBIS再到$INTC的所有AI相关股票在暴涨数倍后崩盘了，然后在那里庆祝。我认为主要是对技术变革缺乏理解，加上资本保值文化与成长型投资文化的碰撞。
英文原文
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.
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AAOI自估27H2起月营收4.71亿，若800G需求大增或上调。
@waynexonline $AAOI 公司自身给出了从 2027 年下半年开始每月 4.71 亿美元的估算。如果 800G 共封装光学(CPO) 的需求全面大幅上调，这个数字可能会进一步增加。
英文原文
@waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027. If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.
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高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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韩国散户遭强制平仓，证实近期崩盘由去杠杆而非基本面引发。
哇，据称韩国约 3.4% 的成年人口面临清算风险？ “截至 7 月 13 日，超过 120 万杠杆散户交易账户触及追保线，其中 32 万至 36 万账户被券商强制平仓。” （另有消息源称该数据来自高盛交易台，而非韩国金融监督服务机构数据） 无论如何，这仅仅是证据表明近期的崩盘是由清算级联/去杠杆加速的，而非基本面所致：
英文原文
Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:
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博主分享AI瓶颈板块近50%回撤，坚信长期逻辑未变并坚持持有。
感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。
英文原文
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
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CPO尚未规模化且存延迟风险，GLW玻璃桥接加剧不确定性。
@johnoao 共封装光学(CPO)尚未实现规模化量产。他们的大部分收益来自2028年FAU的总可寻址市场(TAM)。 由于CPO延迟报道和$GLW玻璃桥接技术，近期存在大量不确定性。 https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
英文原文
@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU. There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge. https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
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看好IREN基本面，但因薪酬和融资问题暂不买入。
@LetsGoBflo17 事实上，在收购 Mirantis 后，我从基本面角度看好 $IREN。因为它将软件编排与其现有的安全 GW 容量相结合。但除非他们解决高管股权激励薪酬和融资机制问题，否则我个人不会入场。
英文原文
@LetsGoBflo17 I actually like $IREN fundamentally post Mirantis acquisition. Since it combines software orchestration with their existing secured GW capacity. But not hopping onboard personally unless they address executive stock based compensation and financing mechanics though.
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博主认为当前崩盘源于杠杆而非基本面，强调建立独立投资逻辑的重要性。
同意！在市场崩盘时回顾自己的投资逻辑是很好的。以我个人的逻辑为例，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元季度营收（年化 56 亿美元），对应 80 亿美元市值。如果到 2026 年这种营收增长尚未体现在季报中，该公司就“完蛋”了吗？这同样适用于我在共封装光学(CPO)领域的持仓如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。如果规模化扩展(scale out)出货量从 2026 年下半年增至 2027 年，而规模化堆叠(scale up)大幅放量至 2028 年。如果高盛(GS)预测的从 0 到 910 亿美元的潜在市场(TAM)扩张尚未实现，就认为它“结束了”吗？对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果上市尚未发生且人形机器人未放量，2026 年就“结束了”吗？我个人认为当前市场状况反映的是流动性和杠杆问题，而非个股基本面。最近看到 KOSPI、台湾、日经指数以及 AI、太空、机器人板块股票暴跌，对每个人来说都很残酷。尤其是当大量非理性行为源于杠杆时。最终，我们无法告诉你买什么股票、何时卖出、如何仓位管理或该做什么。只分享个人想法或研究，并追踪它们是否随时间得到验证。因此，建立自己的投资逻辑至关重要，因为每个人的风险承受能力或投资期限都不同。这通常能在崩盘时带来更高的信念。
英文原文
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
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博主表达对 Pepe 的信任。
@pepemoonboy 我们信任 Pepe。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy In Pepe we trust
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博主承认EWY多头亏损，但坚持持有存储股，因看好SK海力士与三星基本面。
@babybluecream 是的，我的 $EWY 多头仓位确实跌了不少。不过我仍然认为 SK 海力士和三星的营业利润最终会追上其市值，所以我继续持有我的存储芯片仓位。无论如何，看着从日经指数、台湾股市到韩国 KOSPI 的亚洲市场大幅下跌，这并不是一段愉快的时期。
英文原文
@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit. I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions. Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.
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券商称DRAM短缺加剧，内存供需紧张将持续至2028年。
Meritz Securities的Kim Sunwoo：“现在不是抛售三星电子和$SKHY的时候。” 他们认为市场过度误解了半导体局势，且DRAM短缺将在今年下半年加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商仅能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求”。 - 2027年：“满足率预计降至60%区间。” 文章中附带了市场预测，显示SK海力士2027年市盈率为3.5倍，三星为3.9倍。 认为$INTC CEO关于时间框架的言论最到位：“直到至少2028年，内存供应和价格都不会缓解”。 特别是在$MU签署16份有利的“提货或付款”长期协议后，内存需求似乎具有结构性。
英文原文
Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
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博主认为半导体板块接近底部，Reddit散户爆仓是反向指标。
我猜测，从 $INTC 到 $LITE 的半导体板块已接近市场底部。一个很好的指标是，看看 $RDDT 上是否所有人都把投资组合亏到了 $0。
英文原文
My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX
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AI板块无差别大跌，高贝塔股波动剧烈，反弹亦具高波动性。
@blkslymn 我不确定你是否注意到，目前整个AI板块正在无差别下跌。像三星这样市值1万亿美元的公司本月下跌了26%。$MRVL 下跌了31%。因此，高贝塔值（High Beta）的标的往往波动更大，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 下跌了50%。但随后的反弹往往也更具波动性，例如 $AEHR 在财报（ER）后单日上涨50%。
英文原文
@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
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摩根士丹利将SIVE列为CPO核心玩家，机构正利用其上市前的流动性错配。
@afasano23 摩根士丹利在3天前的研报中将 $SIVE 与 $LITE 和 $COHR 并列为三大核心共封装光学(CPO)激光器玩家。富达研究、摩根大通等机构已开始积极建仓。他们最近以57瑞典克朗的价格完成了一轮超额认购的机构融资。这一切都发生在美国纳斯达克上市之前。我个人认为，目前相对于远期收入存在短期流动性错配，我确信机构正在利用这一点。
英文原文
@afasano23 Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.
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类比LITE历史涨幅，看好SIVE凭借CPO技术主导新瓶颈环节。
@CArgyres29810 我认为人们往往忘记，$LITE 凭借对电吸收调制器(EML)瓶颈环节的控制，在两年内估值从 30 亿美元飙升至 600 亿美元以上。这发生在高盛预测到 2028 年下半年总可寻址市场(TAM)将 9 倍扩张至约 1540 亿美元之前。$SIVE 有机会凭借 1.6T 和共封装光学(CPO)技术主导下一个连续波(CW)瓶颈环节。而它目前的市值仅为约 11 亿美元。
英文原文
@CArgyres29810 I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint. This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028. $SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO. And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.
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SIVE轻晶圆厂产能模型显示高毛利潜力，CW瓶颈加剧利好，看好其CPO地位及并购上行空间。
很多人对 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi 等）进行产能爬坡建模感到好奇： 假设使用 Win 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端配置（65% 良率假设，$50-$75 ASP）： Sivers 将支撑 $3.41 亿-$5.12 亿的年度阵列营收。鉴于管理层 50-60%+ 毛利率目标的上限，大致为： $2.05 亿-$3.07 亿的年度毛利润。 相对于 Sivers 当前约 $11 亿的市场资本化，若此产能情景在 2028 年实现，约为： 3.6–5.4 倍 市值/毛利润。 若按 15% 计算，毛利润为 $3.07 亿-$4.61 亿（2.4–3.6 倍 市值/毛利润）。 Sivers CEO 也回复称他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以获取产能。从旧版演示文稿看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的资格认证。 因此，随着共封装光学(CPO) 的兴起，产能目标可能比此处陈述的更大。 我也预计未来季度营收管道预测将上调，因为更多合格供应商进入大规模量产(HVM)。 _ 至于需求端，连续波(CW) 激光器也非常瓶颈。 Lumentum 因 ER 财报电话会议中的外延面激光二极管(EML) 义务，正在公开市场购买 CW 激光器。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议(LTA) 以锁定 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET 等合作爬坡时... 鉴于当前的限制，任何上线的独立合格产能很可能被吸收。 锦上添花的是，摩根士丹利将 $SIVE (~$11 亿) 列为三大领先 CPO 激光器玩家之一。 与其近期笔记中 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，是有原因的... _ 总结：Sivers 仅需 Win 的低端配置，相对于当前估值即可产生可观的毛利润。 我认为最大的未建模营收上行空间在于美国纳斯达克上市后的 TAM 扩张与并购。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的剧本，构建整个收发器模块或光引擎。
英文原文
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
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博主认为AAOI和SIVE当前估值极高，通过营收与远期PE数据指出其价格荒谬。
@JClaydog 我个人认为目前 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 的估值极其荒谬。对于 AAOI，到明年年中，你的年化营收（可能更高）约为 56.2 亿美元，而市值已达 80 亿美元。对于 Sivers，我估计其基于 10% 的份额分配、65% 的良率以及 75 美元的平均售价(ASP)，2028 年的远期市盈率(P/E) 接近 5 倍。
英文原文
@JClaydog I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.
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美光签长协后股价反跌，博主认为这是去杠杆尾声而非基本面问题。
今天，$MU 宣布与 $QCOM 签署了存储长期协议(LTA)。有趣的是，美光随后立即下跌了 5.37%。鉴于签署了所有这些结构性协议，感觉存储或 AI 个股本身似乎并没有什么问题？这更像是去杠杆/利润率级联效应的尾声。
英文原文
Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
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博主呼吁 X 平台修复一个关键漏洞。
@StockSavvyShay 希望如果关注度足够，X 平台有人能修复这个问题。这看起来像是一个相当关键的漏洞。
英文原文
@StockSavvyShay Hope someone at X can fix this if there's enough visibility. Seems like a pretty critical bug.
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博主呼吁修复 X 平台订阅无法自动续费的漏洞。
我希望 X 上有人能修复这个订阅 (Subscription) 漏洞。许多人报告说订阅不再自动续费了。https://t.co/0MvdfJmBg3
英文原文
I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore. https://t.co/0MvdfJmBg3
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博主调侃 X 平台正全力排挤自己以讨好马斯克。
@XtineFang @nikitabier X 正在竭尽全力，好让我失去在埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）那里的位置！
英文原文
@XtineFang @nikitabier X is doing everything they can so I lose my spot to Elon Musk!
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博主讽刺OpenAI在公开场合遭受霸凌。
@OpenAI 这是在公开场合遭受霸凌的最佳方式 https://t.co/tUzuYB3oxs
英文原文
@OpenAI This is the best way to get bullied in public https://t.co/tUzuYB3oxs
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Anthropic拟10月IPO，博主询问是否接受万亿估值。
据彭博社报道，Anthropic 最早将于 10 月进行首次公开募股(IPO)。 这紧随其去年 5 月以 9650 亿美元估值完成的 650 亿美元融资。 嗯，你们会在估值超过 1 万亿美元时投资 Anthropic 吗？ https://t.co/iFIY1WulvO
英文原文
Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation? https://t.co/iFIY1WulvO
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推测苹果为求自力更生将增加AI资本支出，超出市场预期。
@SVTrivo 关于 $AAPL 正在采购哪些公司，目前尚无泄露消息。无论如何，我猜测在经历了 $GOOGL 和 $META 与 OpenAI 的事件后，他们正试图变得更加自力更生。这将预示着人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)的增加，而市场绝对没有预期到像苹果这样的公司会有此举。
英文原文
@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying. Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI. Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.
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存储与光模块基本面强劲，但市场反直觉抛售。
@michaelsikand 下季度DRAM涨价20%+，$SNDK与$META签长期协议，$MU签16+长期协议。市场：继续抛售存储股。800G光模块需求大幅上调？激光器售罄至2029年初？市场：抛售光电子和激光公司。
英文原文
@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
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猜测AI推理领域标的，指出苹果手握巨额现金。
@shopaholicdivas 也许是像 Sambanova 或其他推理(inference)公司之类的，这是我的猜测。 $AAPL 目前坐拥绝对的巨额现金储备(warchest)。
英文原文
@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess. $AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.
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苹果或并购AI芯片公司并大幅上调资本支出，利好光网络及代工。
$AAPL 看起来打算收购 AI 芯片公司来运行 AI（来源：The Information）。目前，$MSFT、$META、Amazon、Google 正在承担 AI 资本支出。但如果苹果在并购后加入其他公司呢？一种可能的场景是，他们大幅上调资本支出以建设自己的 AI 基础设施。因为他们可能目睹了 Google 因算力限制切断 Meta 的情况……或者当你与 OpenAI 合作开发大语言模型时会发生什么。然后他们意识到拥有自己的基础设施有多么重要。从光学网络到晶圆代工厂，这一场景在主题上会相当看多，而且是市场意想不到的？让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.