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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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SIVE是GFS和Ayar激光供应商，1.6T/CPO量产需待JBL等通过认证。
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS 将 $SIVE 作为其参考激光设计，并展示其为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块在 GFS 规模化时的激光供应商。Ayar（领先的 CPO 玩家）也将 $SIVE 列为其主要激光供应商。再次强调，所有这些较新的 1.6T 和 CPO（规模化扩展）架构将在 2027/2028 年量产，如果像 $JBL 这样的厂商尚未通过超大规模客户认证，很难提供具体的量产合同/预测。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.
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反驳将万亿市值英伟达与早期光子学公司直接对比的观点。
@Ingeltun 也许是因为 $NVDA 是一家市值超过 5 万亿美元的公司。 然后你把它和一家处于资格认证阶段、市值 10 亿美元的光子学公司做比较，而该公司的所有产能爬坡都发生在 2027/2028 年。
英文原文
@Ingeltun Maybe because $NVDA is a $5+ trillion dollar company. And then you're comparing that to a qualification stage $1B photonics company where all their ramps happen 2027/2028.
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分析师关注超大规模客户供应链及上游瓶颈，而非争论机会管道。
@nimishx KPI 一直是一致的。它只是产能爬坡情况的指标。分析师主要关注的是其超大规模客户供应商，如 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及其他可插拔/共封装光学(CPO)合作伙伴。以及它们的计划如何扩展，而 $SIVE 处于上游。这比争论机会管道意味着什么更有意义。
英文原文
@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.
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SIVE主交所关闭，OTC流动性极薄，易受小额卖单冲击。
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE 的主要交易所已关闭。场外交易(OTC)市场流动性极薄，一笔小额卖单就可能引发大幅度的百分比波动。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE primary exchange is closed. An OTC market is extremely thin and a small sell order can trigger a large % move.
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LPK因GCS延迟推迟，SIVE供应1.6T/CPO激光器，架构预计27-28年落地。
@whatdahellson 情况略有不同，鉴于三星电机/SKC Absolics 等行业光组件(GCS)的延迟，$LPK 的收入可能已被推迟。 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 长距光学(LRO)、Ayar 共封装光学(CPO)及其他厂商的激光器供应商。 1.6T/CPO 并没有出现可信的延迟，只是在等待资格认证完成以便批量合同下达。这些架构将在 2027-2028 年落地。
英文原文
@whatdahellson It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics $SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others. There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.
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SIVE管道增长迅速且毛利高，但受认证周期限制，短期难爆发。
@Robertff8n 管道（Pipeline）在不到一年内从4亿美元增长至7.99亿美元，再增至12亿美元，我不太明白有人为何期待更多。 其收入质量与其他公司不同，因为 $SIVE 基于磷铟(InP)激光器的长期毛利率估算为55-60%。 这与（营收更高但）毛利率仅为30%的光模块(transceiver)不同。 此外，你无法突然跳过资格认证(qualification)周期并售罄至2030年，尤其是当他们正针对2027年下半年的扩展(scale up)新架构时。
英文原文
@Robertff8n Pipeline grew to $1.2B from $799m from $400m in less than a year, not quite sure how someone expects more. The revenue quality is different than others, since $SIVE was 55-60% long term gross margins est. off InP lasers. It's not the same as 30% transceiver margins (with more revenue). Also you can't suddenly escape qualification cycles and sell out to 2030, especially when they're targeting newer architectures for scale up in H2 2027
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解释半导体从开发到量产的周期，类比AAOI和AEHR的历史。
@Finishurbkfst23 因为它们正处于资格认证(qualification)阶段。 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 在出货量拐点到来之前也是同样的情况。 这仅仅是理解半导体从开发到资格认证再到量产爬坡(ramp)的周期。
英文原文
@Finishurbkfst23 Because they're qualification stage. Same thing with $AAOI or $AEHR before their volume inflections. It's just understanding semi ramp cycles from development -> qualification -> volume ramp.
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SIVE营收管道激增268%，资源转向量产，博主对财报电话会充满期待。
$SIVE 财报刚刚发布： 12亿美元营收机会管道，较12月增长268%（增长惊人）。 上次财报：7.99亿美元（这是惊喜，可能与捷普 Jabil 有关）。 2026年7月：约12亿美元（暗示要么有更多未宣布的客户参与，要么项目内产量爬坡更大）。 “Sivers 继续将资源从非经常性工程(NRE)项目重新分配到产品爬坡准备中。 Sivers 预计这一转型的影响将在2026年第四季度显现，并随着多个项目向量产推进，在2027年加速。” 时间线上说得通。 当前财务数据反映了一家处于资格认证阶段、量产爬坡前的玩家： - 营收564万美元（减少NRE活动，即将转向量产爬坡） - 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(Adjusted EBITDA)为-372万美元（鉴于一次性费用如社保会计支出，应关注此指标） 关键在于30分钟后的财报电话会议，目前非常兴奋。
英文原文
$SIVE earnings just got released: $1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth). Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil) July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs). "Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation. Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production." Makes sense on timelines. Current financials reflect a qualification-stage player before volume ramp: - $5.64M in revenue (reducing NRE activity, shifting to volume ramps soon) -$3.72M in adjusted EBITDA (what to look at given one-off charges, eg. social security accounting expense) Key thing to look at is earnings call in 30 minutes, very excited so far.
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博主转发推文，未包含具体观点或信息。
@Sunwukong512 https://t.co/IQ6RIcirOq
英文原文
@Sunwukong512 https://t.co/IQ6RIcirOq
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博主幽默回应互动，禁止因中文错误做空自己。
@OliverDingXin 可以，但以后中文写错了不许做空我
英文原文
@OliverDingXin 可以，但以后中文写错了不许做空我
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博主感叹评论过多，验证了自己的直觉。
@Tree30068 前几分钟的评论真的太多了。我觉得我的感觉果然没错…
英文原文
@Tree30068 前几分钟的评论真的太多了。我觉得我的感觉果然没错…
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博主感叹其粉丝群体中中文使用者占多数。
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…
英文原文
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…
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华邦退出DDR2加剧短缺，南亚科成关键供应商，ASP看涨。
@Berlinergy 华邦电($WIN) 实际上正在退出 DDR2 领域，转而专注于 DDR4/DDR3，并表示预计 2027 年供应将更加紧张。他们已开始讨论 2029-2030 年的产能规划，并向高端产品转型，因此不太可能再向旧产线分配太多资源。至于其他厂商转向旧产线，认证耗时极长……且激励极低。我查看了晶圆代工依赖度，力积电($PSMC) 是台湾企业，地缘政治上没问题。关于晶圆分配，如果戴上供应链韧性这顶帽子，如果南亚科($ESMT) 停止供应 DDR2，下游将遭受毁灭性打击，所以我不认为会出现这种情况（因为如果华邦退出，他们可能是该产线全球最大的独立供应商）。所以我不太认为会发生……但如果他们获得的晶圆分配减少，平均售价(ASP) 只会进一步上涨，因此盈利可能依然强劲。
英文原文
@Berlinergy Winbond is actually withdrawing from DDR2 to focus on DDR4/DDR3 and said they expect 2027 to be even tighter. They're beginning capacity discussions for 2029-2030 + moving toward higher end, so don't quite see them having much to allocate toward older lines again. As for other players moving toward older lines, qualification takes a lot of time... and there's just very low incentive to. I looked for foundry dependence, PSMC is Taiwanese, so all good geopolitically. As for wafer allocations, if I had to put my supply chain hat resiliency hat on, if ESMT stopped supplying DDR2, it would just be absolute destruction downstream, so don't see that scenario (since they're probably the world's largest merchant supplier for this line if Winbond exits) So don't quite think it would happen... but if they get less wafer allocations, the ASP just gets hiked even more, so earnings would likely remain strong.
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博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。
我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。
英文原文
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
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博主看好ESMT(3006)，认为其受益于DDR2/3产能瓶颈及盈利激增。
我想布局DDR2/DDR3瓶颈持续带来的机会，于是找到了ESMT (3006)。 这是一家市值25亿美元的无晶圆厂(fabless)公司，拥有力积电(PSMC)的晶圆配额（尤其专注于DDR2）。 上月（7月）净利润为1.095亿美元，年化净利润为13.1亿美元（滚动市盈率1.9倍）。 如果我们回顾追踪传统DRAM价格涨幅期间的月度净利润： 2026年1月：约1600万美元（估算） 2026年2月：约1700万美元 2026年3月：约3100万美元（估算） 2026年4月：约5800万美元 2026年5月：约6000万美元（估算） 2026年6月：约6700万美元（估算） 2026年7月：约1.1亿美元 （估算月份是根据报告的季度总额推断的。7月为公司报告数据） 这种盈利进程让我想起$SNDK式的涨价+盈利拐点（特别是本月发布的报告）。 我预计DDR2/DDR3产能将在2027年全年保持紧张（随着华邦电子等传统玩家退出某些产线如DDR2）。 这并不完全是像其他同行那样的库存清算。当然低成本库存有帮助，但主要驱动力似乎是晶圆成本/供应与传统DRAM平均售价(ASP)之间利差的扩大？ 他们的资产负债表也非常稳健： - 手头现金：约3.959亿美元净现金 - 2.496亿美元库存，1.463亿美元应收账款 而且净利润的增长……是在预期Q3进一步传统DRAM涨价之前。 *披露持有仓位，非财务建议(NFA) 在没有太多评论的情况下早期介入总是有点令人畏惧。想知道是否有人能压力测试这个论点？ 毕竟一家今年仅从1600万美元增长到1亿美元月度净利润的公司（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）。 并且受益于本季度预计的另一波DDR2/DDR3涨价……据Trendforce称DDR2产线可能上涨35-40%，DDR3可能继续上涨。 市场只是不知道这个瓶颈/公司，还是我的研究漏掉了什么？
英文原文
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?
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NVDA需求远超70%，但受限于产能仅能实现70%营收增长。
@JonahLupton $NVDA 表示需求远超 70%。只是他们的产能仅允许实现 70% 的营收增长，这太荒谬了。https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
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@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%. It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd. https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
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博主认为人工智能行业重新回归。
@StormDirac 我认为人工智能(AI)回来了
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@StormDirac I think AI is back
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博主对英伟达大幅超预期的营收预测表示震惊并极度看好。
@Yolo365247isme 是的，我对那些预测 genuinely shocked（真心震惊），这就像是营收超出共识约 1030 亿美元 lol。$NVDA 简直是在疯狂印钞，太神了。
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@Yolo365247isme Yeah I'm genuinely shocked at those projections, it's like ~$103B revenue beat above consensus lol. $NVDA is just printing, holy.
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NVDA指引受供应限制，云厂商CapEx上调利好高贝塔供应链。
$NVDA：“我们预计2028财年营收将增长约70%。这是一个受供应限制的展望。” 仅这一句话的重要性可能就超过了刚刚发布的整个业绩超预期？ 疯狂的向上修正：从预期的+43.9%上调至70%。 “随着云行业积压订单现已超过2万亿美元，前五大超大规模云服务商的资本支出预计将在2026年达到近8000亿美元，2027年达到1.3万亿美元。” 2027年达1.3万亿美元。（微软此前6月约为1.2万亿，因此这是上调预测） 是的，供应链中高贝塔部分的增长将会非常喜欢这一点。
英文原文
$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook" That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now? Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%. "With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027" $1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions) Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.
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英伟达财报超预期，指引强劲，AI需求无放缓迹象，超额收益转向供应链。
$NVDA 财报要点(TLDR)： 营收：962.2亿美元 vs. 约921.7亿美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：2.22美元 vs. 2.09-2.10美元（超预期） 数据中心(DC)：890亿美元 vs. 约863亿美元（超预期） 调整后毛利率：75% vs. 75% 超大规模客户(Hyperscaler)营收：487.1亿美元，上季度为430.5亿美元（定制ASIC的增长并未真正阻止该营收加速） 关于指引： 营收：1080亿美元 vs. 约1042亿美元 调整后毛利率：74% vs. 75%（这几乎是唯一的疲软点） 过去4个季度的营收增长确实令人难以置信。 -> 681亿美元 -> 816亿美元 -> 962亿美元（当前） -> 下季度指引：1080亿美元，尽管假设中国数据中心计算营收为零。 有趣的是，英伟达表示其承诺从上一季度的1190亿美元跳升至2790亿美元，主要与未来几年的内存采购有关。所以内存需求会持续飙升。 要点：AI热潮持续不断。英伟达显然处于领先地位，且没有明显的需求放缓迹象。 鉴于英伟达已是5万亿美元+市值的公司，我认为现在的超额收益(alpha)主要来自英伟达的架构/容量决策如何影响供应链的其他环节（例如共封装光学(CPO)、内存、800V电源）。 而不是简单地寻找英伟达自身的定价错误。 无论如何，所有有趣的事情将在几分钟后的财报电话会议中发生。
英文原文
$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.
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CW激光器产能紧缺，$SIVE作为剩余现货供应商受益。
我知道大家都在关注 $NVDA 的财报…… 但你们知道 Landmark 已与美国客户签署为期4年的连续波(CW)协议以确保“充足供应”吗？ 所以现在的格局是： - $LITE（产能耗尽） - $COHR（产能耗尽） - Landmark（产能已锁定） - $AAOI（光模块产能） - $MTSI（尚未量产） - $SMTC（产能有限） 我记得今年早些时候说过，CW激光器将是下一个光学变革，且会被 Nvidia 严重瓶颈化？ 看着这一切上演很有趣，参与者已签署至2030年的长期协议(LTA)（暗示其他玩家可用产能更少）。 这对 $SIVE / Win Semi 的影响非常重大，因为它是少数拥有产能（+ CPO级激光器）的剩余CW现货供应商之一。 让我们看看他们的执行情况。
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I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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博主因DDR技术影响兴奋，无暇关注英伟达财报。
@4intheflames 我对DDR3/DDR2的影响过于兴奋，以至于无暇关注$NVDA的财报或睡觉。
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@4intheflames I’ve been too excited about DDR3/DDR2 implications to look at $NVDA earnings or sleep.
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DDR2内存Q2/Q3价格大涨指向特定市场信号。
@embgaspbaud 第二季度/第三季度双倍数据速率2(DDR2)内存价格的巨大涨幅指向了这一点 https://t.co/CS770NbwNz
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@embgaspbaud The enormous Q2/Q3 DDR2 hike pricing points to it https://t.co/CS770NbwNz
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DDR4短缺引发ODM降级设计，老厂退出加剧级联瓶颈。
“级联瓶颈”的概念简直太酷了。由于DDR4供应冲击和成本问题：许多原始设计制造商(ODM)正在从DDR4向下重新设计至DDR3，再至DDR2。但即使是像华邦电子($WIN)这样的老牌厂商也在退出DDR2市场。这使得瓶颈问题更加恶化。
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The concept of “cascading bottlenecks” is just super cool. Because of DDR4 supply shocks and costs: Lot of ODMs are redesigning downward from DDR4 -> DDR3 -> DDR2. But even the legacy players themselves like Winbond are withdrawing from DDR2. Making the bottleneck even worse
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博主表示仅使用X平台，不使用外部平台。
@Mengmengeth 我不使用外部平台，只用 X！
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@Mengmengeth I don't use external platforms, only X!
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Saxo Japan 因高需求上线 $SIVE，博主期待其财报及纳斯达克上市。
我很高兴看到这么多人请求交易 $SIVE，以至于 Saxo Japan 特意将其列入交易名单！ 这充分展示了对这家激光公司（Laser Company）的巨大需求。 特别感谢 Saxo。当然，我也对 Sivers 即将发布的财报（Earnings）和计划中的纳斯达克（Nasdaq）上市感到兴奋。
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I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.
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博主回应指出自己拼写错误，表示犯错难免。
@AheadOfTmrw 我也把 Semtech 拼错了两次，犯错难免。
英文原文
@AheadOfTmrw I also misspelled Semtech 2 times, mistakes happen
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光收发器需求预测从5000万上调至8000-9000万。
@equityclimb1 是的，我错过了这句引言：“行业预测将消耗5000万个光收发器(transceiver)单元。现在我们听到的数字是8000万、9000万个。” https://t.co/WWFP09AP74
英文原文
@equityclimb1 Yeah I missed this quote: "The industry is forecasting 50 million transceiver units to be consumed. Now we are hearing the number 80, 90 million" https://t.co/WWFP09AP74
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SMTC财报大超预期，光模块需求强劲，产能瓶颈凸显，博主虽未持仓但高度赞赏。
回到 $SMTC 的电影：“瓶颈疯狂运转”： 我最喜欢的引用是：“目前可用性比定价更重要”。 在当前光产品市场中： - 已预订的光学订单预计短期内不会流失，这表明他们能很好地转嫁成本上涨。 - 我其实最关心 Semtech 在收购 HieFo 后的连续波(CW)激光产品： Semtech 预计用于收发器的 CW 激光收入将于 FY28 上半年开始。明确表示产能有限。 与激光领导者相比，他们似乎仍大幅落后，但正在为 2027 年的爬坡取得进展。 - 终端接口适配器(TIA)和驱动器解决方案需求依然异常强劲（从 $AAOI 业绩中得到证实）。 继续深化与所有领先超大规模云服务商的合作。 “我们现在正在为每个模块供应商设计”，预计年底前 1.6T FiberEdge（TIA + 驱动器）的市场份额将超过 50%。 关于占据多数市场份额，这是一个非常有力的声明。 - 1.6T FiberEdge 认证比预期提前完成（对可插拔制造商如 AOI 是利好信号） 问：“关于积压订单延伸到 2028 年多久，有什么快速看法？” 答：对于本财年剩余时间的积压订单，我认为我们的目标已全部预订。对于明年，我们可能已完成 70% 以上。 管理层表示当前产能可能不足以应对 2028 财年，尤其是下半年（需求可见度极高） Q2 营收： - 3.419 亿美元 vs. 预期约 3.29 亿美元 - 调整后每股收益(EPS) 0.71 美元 vs. 0.61 美元 Q3 指引最令人兴奋： 4.1 亿美元营收 vs. 预期约 3.6 亿美元 1.05 美元 EPS vs. 0.73 美元 EPS。 是的……看看这漂亮的季度营收拐点。 巨大的业绩超预期，1.6T 爬坡的利好信号很强。我不持有 Semtech，但这些财报太棒了。
英文原文
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.