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反驳情绪投资，指出存储涨价驱动指数上涨及利润大增。
仅凭图表就断言“X”的年初至今表现，并引用情绪作为依据，这是最糟糕的投资方式。 股票跟随基本面，如果由创纪录的自由现金流(FCF)支撑，上涨行情才是可持续的。 此次上涨的主要原因主要是SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的存储芯片价格飙升，且这两家公司在指数中占据主要权重。 甚至不看DRAM，NAND价格在第一季度(Q1)就上涨了100%以上。 对于第二季度(Q2)，NAND价格在第一季度100%涨幅的基础上再次上涨100%，而分析师此前预测的涨幅仅为5-30%。 这极大地增加了存储芯片制造商的营业利润。
英文原文
Looking at the chart alone for saying "X" YTD and citing sentiment as is the worst way to invest. Stocks follow fundamentals and rallies are sustainable if it's backed by record FCF. The reason for the rally was primarily memory price hikes from Sk Hynix/Samsung and those two making up majority of the index by weight. Not even looking at DRAM, NAND prices were hiked Q1 by 100%+. For Q2, NAND prices again were 100% again, off the Q1 100% hikes while analysts were projecting 5-30% increases. This vastly increases operating income of memory makers.
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油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。
关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。
英文原文
The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.
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转发路透社链接，无具体观点。
@madMusing_ 路透社。 https://t.co/xR6Flkw90R
英文原文
@madMusing_ Reuters. https://t.co/xR6Flkw90R
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回应LNG供应担忧，指出长期合同挂钩油价可能推高运营成本。
之前的帖子主要是在回应当时对液化天然气(LNG)供应的担忧。当消息首次发布时，所有人都担心供应中断，导致无法再制造芯片。长期合同很可能与油价挂钩，因此运营支出(opex)可能会因油价上涨而增加。所以仍然需要对石油进行一些建模分析，但这方面因素过于复杂。
英文原文
Post was mainly addressing LNG supply fears back then. When news was first released, everyone was fearing supply shut off and no chips could be made anymore. Long term contracts were likely oil indexed, so there might be opex hikes from oil prices. So still need to do some modeling around oil, which is way too multifaceted.
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LNG担忧被夸大，成本可转嫁，看好韩国半导体股反弹。
关于液化天然气(LNG)/JKM的担忧讨论很多，看起来仍然被夸大了，即使问题不只是氦气。如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将基本不受影响，因为它们通过澳大利亚、美国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等不经过霍尔木兹的路线到达。例如，2024年82%的进口是长期合同而非现货，但可能挂钩油价，我同意你关注油价影响。然而，即使成本飙升，运营支出(operex)也会通过涨价转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)，而不是压缩利润率。这就是为什么我认为韩国股票现在仍然是极具吸引力的多头标的，因为SK海力士(SK Hynix)市值跌至3000亿美元以上，而三星在第二季度再次将NAND闪存价格翻倍，以推动营业利润超过预期。
英文原文
Lot of discussion around LNG/JKM fears still look overblown, even if it's not just helium. Majority of SK’s LNG imports would be largely unaffected if Hormuz were closed as they arrive via Hormuz-free routes like Australia, US, Malaysia, Indonesia. Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot, but likely oil indexed and I'd agree with you there on looking at oil impact. However, even if costs shot up, opex would be passed onto hyperscalers through price hikes rather than see margins being compressed. Which is why I see KR equities still be a compelling long around now, as Sk Hynix drops to high $300B+ MC and Samsung doubles nand prices again in q2 to boost operating income past projections
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SK海力士澄清氦气供应无忧，驳斥市场恐慌，巨头供应链已多元化。
SK海力士声明： “已长期确保多元化的氦气(He)供应链和充足的库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气短缺]的影响。” X上的媒体和散户：“因为氦气，半导体行业完蛋了！” 95%的主流媒体和FinX账号都是纯粹的噪音。 虽然可能会对较小玩家产生影响并带来适度逆风： 但现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经针对外部事件实现了供应链多元化。他们不会突然停止制造芯片。 尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明，称公司[SK海力士]几乎不可能受到影响时。 这几乎就像是……世界上最大的公司从2022年吸取了教训？
英文原文
SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. Media and Retail on X: “It’s all over for Semis because of Helium!” 95% of mainstream media and FinX accounts are pure noise. While there might be an impact on smaller players and a moderate headwind: The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. And aren’t going to suddenly stop making chips. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. It’s almost if… the largest companies in the world learned their lesson from 2022?
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澄清LITE/COHR与中际旭创在光模块供应链中的不同角色。
@LostFundamental 这完全说不通。$LITE 和 $COHR 彼此竞争，但它们与中际旭创(Innolight)完全不同，后者负责设计/组装并从这两家公司采购激光器。它们在光收发器(transceiver)设计上确实有轻微重叠，但其核心业务是激光器。
英文原文
@LostFundamental That makes zero sense. $LITE and $COHR compete with one another but they’re completely different than Innolight that does design/assembly and buys the lasers from the two. They do have slight overlap with transceiver design but their core business are lasers.
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SK海力士否认受氦气中断影响，市场误杀提供交易机会。
任何供应链中断都是逆风，计入风险溢价是合理的。但如果 SK 海力士 ($SKHYNIX) 明确表示氦气（Helium）中断对其零影响，而其他分析师/市场却因氦气担忧抛售 SK 海力士，这看起来就是一个利用市场过度反应获利的机会。
英文原文
Any sort of supply chain disruption is a headwind and it makes sense to price in risk-levels. But if SK Hynix goes out and says there’s zero affect on them from Helium disruption. Then other analysts/markets say sell off SK Hynix off Helium concerns, then looks like an opportunity to capitalize off an overreaction.
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SK海力士与三星氦气供应安全，市场恐慌错判，属买入机会。
氦气恐慌为 $EWY、KOSPI、台湾和日本制造了引人注目的标题。 这与之前发现韩国巨头安然无恙后的LNG恐慌类似。 然而，底层机制显示，SK海力士和三星等存储厂商（Memory Players）对潜在的氦气中断具有高度免疫力。 SK海力士向路透社发表声明： “已长期确保多元化的供应链和充足的氦气库存。” “因此，公司几乎不可能受到影响。” 三星尚未发表声明，但他们在第四季度财报电话会议中表示： “我们自豪地成为行业内首个开发并部署半导体制造氦气回收系统的公司。” “这使我们能够回收和纯化氦气以供重新部署，每年减少约4.7吨的消耗，并实现约19%的重复使用率。” 三星确认该系统已在生产线上运行，可能保护了其供应链。 当投资者因金永培（Kim Young-bae）关于90%依赖中东进口将导致HBM生产停摆的说法而恐慌时， Volza贸易数据反驳了这一点，但差异可能源于气态与液态氦的分类、转运，或金出于政治效果而夸大其词。 无论如何，这两大韩国巨头似乎已很大程度上确保了其氦气供应链免受中东冲突的影响。 市场抛售的核心盲点在于： 美国不会让其中东冲突阻碍其AI建设。SK海力士和三星正处于这一核心。 美韩技术繁荣协议（US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal）旨在保护先进技术供应链。 尤其是当像SK海力士这样的公司发表明确声明时： 声明公司不可能受氦气影响。 市场正在为氦气/LNG中断的最坏情况定价，但查看这些声明表明这是一个买入机会。
英文原文
The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan. Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine. However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption. SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters: "Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected." Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated: "We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing" This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%" Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain. When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production. The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect. Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East. The core point of the selloff markets are missing: United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all. US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well. And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements: Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium. Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.
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分析AAOI估值与基本面，建议结合营收和供应链地位而非仅看图表。
如果 $AAOI 股价上涨 100%，并声称明年每月营收将达 3.78 亿美元，这得益于 $META、$MSFT 和 $AMZN 购买其能生产的所有供应品。而它现在的估值为 70 亿美元。我不会只看图表，还会关注营收预测、毛利率、在供应链中的地位以及预测数据。
英文原文
If $AAOI ran up 100% and stated they're doing $378M/month revenue next year off likely $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN buying any supply they can make. And they're valued at $7B now. I wouldn't look at the chart alone, would look at revenue projections, gross margins, position in supply chains, and forecasts.
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谷歌CTO暗示AI支出激增，澄清市场误判，看好AI基建加速。
@4intheflames $GOOGL 人工智能首席技术官刚刚明确暗示未来8年将增加支出。 https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： “谷歌数据中心建设规模可能超过1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等均为广泛利好。 在接受福布斯关于人工智能资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官表示： “今年（资本支出）在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字。” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器。” 昨天，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股票，导致一些“星际之门”相关项目暂停。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商资助的更广泛的人工智能基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： 人工智能基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
@4intheflames $GOOGL CTO of AI literally just signaled increase spend over the next 8 years. https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ
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博主转发或回复其他用户推文，无实质内容。
@Asaf25311430 https://t.co/3q2bj3NgB5
英文原文
@Asaf25311430 https://t.co/3q2bj3NgB5
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NVDA锁定EML产能，光子学上游材料受制于中国，COWOS/HBM/光子学成瓶颈。
$NVDA 去年锁定了大部分光模块(EML)产能，导致其他超大规模云服务商面临巨大瓶颈。然而，光子学整体是一个材料问题，最上游的材料由中国控制。这并非英伟达能单方面决定的。不过，他们通常是最早布局的，这给 $META、$MSFT、$AMZN、$GOOGL 留下了更多问题，因此本文指出共封装光学(COWOS)、高带宽内存(HBM)和光子学可能是瓶颈。
英文原文
$NVDA secured most of the EML capacity last year and caused a huge bottleneck for other hyperscalers. However, photonics as a whole is a materials problem, the most upstream materials controlled by China. Not exactly something Nvidia can decide. However, they're usually the first to things and that leaves more problems to $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL afterward, hence the point of the post signaling cowos, hbm, and photonics are probably the bottlenecks.
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指出MRVL在光子学领域的布局，但强调其收入主要依赖ASIC。
@cesarsroy 是的，$MRVL 在光子学领域（如与 Celestial 合作的共封装光学(CPO)）有很多布局。上面应该提到他们的，但我总是把他们和专用集成电路(ASIC)联系在一起，因为那是他们大部分收入的来源，比如 2027 年的 $MSFT Maia。
英文原文
@cesarsroy Yes $MRVL does a lot of stuff in photonics like cpo with celestial. should have included them above, but I always just associate them with asics since that's where majority of their revenue comes from like $MSFT maia in 2027.
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光模块或随超大规模云厂商锁定产能而结束低价，面临涨价预期。
据我所知，自超大规模云服务商认为800G/1.6T光模块已是大宗商品(commodities)并提前获得批量折扣(volume discounts)以来，价格并未大幅上涨。但这类似于内存(memory)转变为结构性需求，加上超大规模云服务商为保障产能而带来的极端需求。如果看到它们开始涨价，我不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
There haven't been much price hikes to my knowledge since hyperscalers were thinking 800g/1.6T are commodities + getting volume discounts earlier. But similar to memory transforming to something structural + extreme demand from hyperscalers securing capacity. Would not be surprised if we see them start hiking prices.
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内部人减持是愚蠢指标，应更关注公司业绩指引。
@okayvinay @AlphaOwlTrading 不是？内部人减持(Insider selling)是我见过人们使用的最愚蠢的指标之一。 比起人们是否想获利了结，更应关注公司的业绩指引(company projections)。
英文原文
@okayvinay @AlphaOwlTrading No? Insider selling has got to be one of the dumbest metrics I've ever seen people use. Care more about company projections than if people want to take profits.
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引用外部链接，无实质文字内容。
此推文仅包含一个引用链接，无实质文字内容可供翻译。
英文原文
@AlphaOwlTrading https://t.co/xGDYTTGU17
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对于有指引或瓶颈的公司，内部人减持不重要，执行和达成目标才是关键。
如果一家公司提供业绩指引或处于瓶颈环节，内部人减持可能是我关注的最不重要的因素。 $AAOI 给出了 2027 年下半年营收 3.78 亿美元、毛利率约 36-40% 的指引，而其市值为 70 亿美元。 只要他们能执行并达成指引，我不在乎谁在卖出股票。 两个月前我在 Reddit 首次发布 $AXTI（当时约 12 美元）时，也有同样的担忧，而它自那以来已翻了三倍。
英文原文
Insider selling is probably the least material thing I look at if a company gives projections or serves as a bottleneck. $AAOI gave projections of $378M/revenue off ~36-40% gross margins H2 2027 and they're a $7B MC. Don't care if someone sells their shares as long as they execute and hit projections. Same concern was said about $AXTI on Reddit 2 months ago when I first posted it around $12 and it's tripled since then.
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POET 依赖 MRVL 产品，非瓶颈而是高潜力架构赋能者。
前几天我写了一篇关于 $POET 的小文章。他们目前很大程度上依赖 $MRVL 的 Celestial 产品。根据 Marvell 的财报，Celestial AI 的收入预测为 2028 年 5 亿美元，2029 年 10 亿美元（POET 在 Starlight 的物料清单 BOM 中占比可能约为 10%）。我不认为 $POET 是瓶颈环节，而是一个具有高潜力的架构赋能者。
英文原文
I did a small writeup on $POET the other day. They're largely dependent on $MRVL Celestial right now, and from Marvell earnings, Celestial AI revenue projections were $500m 2028, $1B 2029 (poet ~10% BOM starlight maybe) I don't see $POET as a bottleneck, but high potential architectural enabler.
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看好AXTI垄断潜力，COHR最安全，AAOI/IQE高弹性，TSEM短期滞涨。
$AXTI 是我的个人最爱，因为其衬底/原料被用于任何光子学瓶颈环节。我只需要有人加入他们的董事会，告诉他们自己是半垄断地位并提价。关于时间框架：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 可能在未来两年因需求激增而迎来高光时刻。由于共封装光学(CPO)的影响，可插拔光模块的指数级增长曲线可能在 2028 年略有放缓，因此对类似中际旭创/新易盛的玩家会更谨慎。$AAOI 自产激光器，所以如果有转型时间，我确信他们会通过认证。简而言之：最安全的是 $COHR，他们业务广泛多元化。最高上行空间可能是 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI，鉴于其起点较小。Soitec 和 $TSEM 有显著上行空间，两年内可能翻倍或翻三倍。但 2026 年可能是死钱。
英文原文
$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck. I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike. For timeframes: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp. The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players. $AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot. TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified. Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point. Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.
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澄清EWY为存储股，指出NAND涨价超预期但属周期中段，光子学尚早。
不，$EWY 主要包含三星和 SK 海力士，这两家主要是存储芯片厂商。 三星昨日宣布第二季度 NAND 闪存价格上调 100% 以上，而分析师此前普遍预测仅比第一季度增长 5-30%。 NAND/DRAM 是一个独立的瓶颈环节，但我们正处于周期中段（尽管需求可能是结构性的，但季度价格暴涨 100% 的可能性不大）。 光子学(Photonics)仍处于早期阶段。
英文原文
No, $EWY is Samsung/SK Hynix which are primarily memory. Q2 NAND prices were hiked 100%+ by Samsung yesterday while analyst expectations were all projecting 5-30% increases from Q1. NAND/DRAM is a separate bottleneck but we're midcycle (but demand is likely structural, 100%/quarter price hikes, probably not). Photonics is early.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出未放缓，光学组件产能已满，预示AI光子学瓶颈将至，建议持有。
情绪（如战争/石油/LNG）决定短期价格，基本面决定长期价格。 我看不到那些关键的超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN 等）的资本支出有任何放缓迹象。 而且，在光学组件全面扩产之前，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的所有产能已在涨价前满负荷运转。 当新的 AI 集群架构采用光子学进行扩展时，这就是即将出现的瓶颈的定义。 如果这些公司的基本面没有发生任何破坏性变化，可能最好持有以度过短期波动。
英文原文
Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run. I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc). And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale. If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.
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分析IQE、AAOI及AXTI等小众AI供应链标的的早期机会与执行风险。
可能尚未被定价的只有那些更小众的领域，例如在磷化铟(InP)衬底上的外延工艺，或者那些刚刚触及拐点的新型激光器/收发器玩家。 我曾提到 $IQE 处于极早期阶段（但风险更高），因为其同行 Landmark 的估值已达 35-40 亿美元。 这取决于重组情况。 $AAOI 也处于极早期，情况更微妙，因为他们提供端到端服务（激光器 -> 设计 -> 组装）。如果他们能在每一层执行到位，淘汰 $FN/中际旭创 类型的玩家并扩大利润率，可能实现 10 倍增长。 但这很大程度上取决于执行能力。 $AXTI 也许有机会，如果 Shkreli 加入董事会并教他们如何涨价的话。
英文原文
Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point. I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B. This depends on restructuring. $AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x. This largely depends on execution though. $AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，激光与InP紧缺，CPO变革预计2028年。
光子学是下一个主要瓶颈。 $NVDA 提前发出了每一个瓶颈的信号：从 HBM（与三星/SK海力士合作）到 CoWoS，再到如今对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的投资： 激光晶圆厂、共封装光学(CPO) 和磷化铟(InP)。 针对每个瓶颈中最具非对称性的多头标的： 1. InP 衬底：$AXTI，住友，JX 2. InP 上游原料+加工：$AXTI 3. 激光器：$AAOI（自研），$AVGO，$COHR，$LITE 4. CPO：$TSEM，Soitec。 $AAOI 财报电话会确认了激光器瓶颈，三家超大规模云厂商希望买断其能生产的所有光收发器。 $AXTI 的积压订单确认了 InP 衬底瓶颈。（玩家图片来源：IndexBox） CPO 瓶颈被广泛预期将在 2027-2028 年末发生。 $AVGO 关于“CPO”的评论带来了短期波动。但这不同于正在发生的激光->收发器和 InP 瓶颈。 关于时间框架： $AAOI，$LITE，$COHR 和激光收发器瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计像内存一样在 2028 年前恶化）。 $AXTI，住友和 InP 衬底瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计只要 AI 在未来多年使用光子学，情况就会恶化）。 由 $NVDA 引领的向 CPO 的大型架构转变可能发生在 2028 年。 这些对于 AI 的下一个范式转变来说似乎是不可避免的。
英文原文
Photonics is the next major bottleneck. $NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from: HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment: Laser Fab, CPO, and InP. For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck: 1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX 2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI 3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE 4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec. The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce. The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox) And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028. There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now. For timeframes: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028). $AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come). And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028. These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
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X算法改善，金融分析内容互动增加，但仍有无关AI视频干扰。
谢谢，X 的算法总体上有所改善。特别是在金融领域，注意到分析类工作的参与度普遍提升。不过，那些关于人们骑着飞毯射击的 AI 视频，以及偶尔重现的奥运会“打手”素材依然存在。
英文原文
Thanks, X algorithm has gotten better in general. Especially in the financial sector, noting more engagement for analytical work across the board. There’s still the AI videos of people on flying carpets shooting down stuff and Olympic goon material reappearing from time to time.
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谷歌AI基建支出庞大且持续加速，利好相关半导体供应链。
“谷歌数据中心建设规模可能突破1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科(Mediatek)、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等普遍利好。 在接受福布斯关于AI资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官(CTO)表示： “今年在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器” 昨日，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股，暂停了一些Stargate相关项目。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)资助的更广泛的AI基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： AI基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
“Google’s Data Center Buildout Could Top 1 Trillion” The implications for $1.5T+ in capex spend for the Google TPU ecosystem: From $LITE, Mediatek, $AVGO, $TSM, SK Hynix, Samsung and others are widely positive. In an interview with Forbes on AI capex spend, $GOOGL CTO stated: “We’re at $175 to $185 billion this year, one could imagine, assuming it's not going to go down, that this could extend to some big number over 10 years” Forbes comments: “There’s a big difference between Google’s data center ambitions and OpenAI’s: Google is a money-making machine” Yesterday, markets sold off semi names from OpenAI + $ORCL putting a pause on some Stargate related projects. The market conflated OpenAI's growing pains with the broader AI infrastructure buildout funded by the richest hyperscalers. From $GOOGL and a money-printing Mag7 perspective: The AI buildout only looks to accelerate over the next decade.
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看好存储板块，NAND涨价超预期，预计跑赢大盘。
@eclement04 不，我在做多存储和波动率上升。Q2 NAND 价格被三星和可能的 SK 海力士翻倍，比分析师预期高出 4-10 倍。宏观背景影响大多数股票，但我预计该板块将方向性跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@eclement04 No I’m long on memory and volatility increases. Q2 NAND prices were doubled by Samsung and likely SK Hynix, around 4-10 times more than analyst expectations. There’s a lot of macro backdrop affecting majority of stocks, but I expect that sector to directionally outperform.
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博主预告将发布后续帖子，指出提及的几只股票短期内不会消失。
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss 我会就此发布后续帖子，像 $INTC、$COHR、$RDDT、$IBIT 和 $RKLB 这类东西在短期内不会消失。
英文原文
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss I’ll make a follow up post on this, stuff like $INTC, $COHR, $RDDT, $IBIT, and $RKLB are not going away anytime soon.
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区分公司经营与股价表现，强调关注个人持仓回报。
@blackwalletfr 公司 $IREN 经营良好与你持有的该公司股票升值之间是有区别的。我更关心我的股票表现如何，而不是公司本身。 https://t.co/X1YzRXWBNK
英文原文
@blackwalletfr There’s a difference between the company $IREN doing well and your shares in the company appreciating in value. I care about how my shares perform, not so much about the company itself. https://t.co/X1YzRXWBNK
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除巨头外需警惕宏观与稀释风险，密切跟踪高成长股变化。
同意，除非你的持仓是 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，否则你不能只是躺平四年就确信它会表现良好。密切关注是否有任何实质性变化至关重要。尤其是对于极高贝塔值的超成长型公司，宏观环境、战略转型或过度稀释都可能破坏你的投资逻辑或限制上行空间。
英文原文
Agreed, if your name is not $GOOGL or $TSM where you can just sit back 4 years and know it will likely do well. It’s important to monitor if there’s any material changes. Especially for extremely high beta hypergrowth names where things from macro, pivots, or excessive dilution can break your thesis or cap upside