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指出 Mike Alfred 担任 IREN 董事
@chiptomunk 你难道不知道 Mike Alfred 是 $IREN 的董事会成员吗？
英文原文
@chiptomunk You do realize Mike Alfred sits on the board of $IREN right?
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光子学是AI新范式，需忍受波动，切勿使用杠杆。
如果有任何变化，我会发帖说明。包括关于 $AAOI 的情况。 不幸的是，目前市场交易主要受宏观因素和恐惧情绪驱动，除非基本面有像 $HIMS 那样极具颠覆性的变化，否则任何基本面消息都会被避险情绪所覆盖。 光子学(Photonics)是人工智能领域的新一轮范式转移，目前只是在等待度过未来一年的波动期。 不幸的是，许多人正经历着这样的回撤，这就是为什么不要使用杠杆(Margin)如此重要。
英文原文
If anything’s changed I would have posted about it. Including with $AAOI. Unfortunately market trades off macro + fear right now and any fundamentals if it’s not extremely game changing like $HIMS will override risk-off sentiment. Photonics is the new paradigm shift with AI, it’s just waiting out volatility over the next year. Unfortunately a lot of people have draw downs like these, which is why it’s important not to use margin.
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认为地缘政治不会导致科技巨头削减AI资本支出，成本分析优于需求预测。
@nengcunren2527 是的，我同意很多因素在于需求端，但我不认为“七巨头”(Mag7) 或 $GOOGL 会因为伊朗局势紧张而削减资本支出(capex)，从而在人工智能(AI)竞赛中输给了中国。 局势过于错综复杂，在战争升级的短短几天内，还无法对需求进行建模。但成本分析(cost analysis)则更具可操作性。
英文原文
@nengcunren2527 Yep agreed a lot of it is on demand side but I don’t think mag7 or $GOOGL is going to cut capex and lose the AI race to China over Iran tensions. It’s way too multifaceted and can’t model in demand yet from just a few days into war escalation. But cost analysis is more do-able.
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建议待SK海力士财报发布后两个月再行庆祝
@sch97426428 等 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 发布财报后再过两个月回来庆祝吧
英文原文
@sch97426428 Come back in 2 months after SK Hynix releases earnings and celebrate
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AI存储股中断担忧被夸大，建议不加杠杆做多。
@dimitrisnatsis - 关于AI概念股（如存储芯片公司）面临中断的担忧被夸大了。 - 不要使用保证金(margin) - 中长期的多头头寸(longs)非常有吸引力。
英文原文
@dimitrisnatsis - Lot of fears regarding disruption of AI names like memory companies are overblown. - don’t use margin - medium-long term very compelling longs.
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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分析指出SK海力士和三星利润未受能源价格实质影响，市场情绪短期主导。
@jayjay12246 是的，我已经完成了分析，发现SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的营业利润并未受到石油、液化天然气(LNG)和氦气(Helium)的实质性影响。尽管表面看起来很吓人。人们短期内交易的是情绪。如果你的名字不是$HIMS，整体情绪看起来相当糟糕。
英文原文
@jayjay12246 Yeah, I’ve already done the analysis and found SK Hynix/Samsung operating income wasn’t very materially affected by Oil, LNG, and helium. Even though it looks very scary. People trade off sentiment short term. And sentiment looks pretty bad in general if your name is not $HIMS.
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指出HIMS积压订单激增，但对其后续走势持观望态度。
@frsinvesting 是的，我已经看到 $HIMS 积压了数百万美元的订单。不过我不确定这最终会如何演变，只是对当前局势进行评论。 https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah I’m already seeing millions in backlogged orders for $HIMS. Idk how it plus out though, just commentating in the situation. https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
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为被做空重创的$HIMS投资者加油，并讽刺做空者。
@moninvestor 如果 $HIMS 发生那样的情况会很有趣。 我个人只是在为过去几个月被做空者重创的 $HIMS 投资者加油。 希望他们至少能从试图让美国公司破产的尝试中吸取一些教训。
英文原文
@moninvestor Would be interesting if that happened for $HIMS. I’m personally just cheering on the $HIMS investors that were beat up by short sellers over the past few months. Hopefully they at least learn some lessons trying to bankrupt American companies.
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$HIMS因与$NVO合作及基本面反转，周一或现逼空行情。
$HIMS 隔夜交易即将开始，周五收盘价为 $22。 此前该股交易价为 $70，但鉴于： - $NVO / 美国政府诉讼威胁使公司破产 - $HIMS 来自 GLP-1 的收入减速。 空头做空了该公司 40% 以上的流通盘。 所有这一切在周五盘后发生了逆转，据彭博社报道，$NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作，这是一个极其令人惊讶的事件。 由于收入重新加速、为全球扩张进行的新收购、资产负债表无破产威胁，以及现在与 $NVO 的合作： 空头现在面临无限亏损，做空了接近一半的流通盘。 目前的格局看起来非常适合发生逼空(short squeeze)。 然而，结果主要取决于散户的反应，或者他们是否会向空头投降。 无论如何，每个人都会关注周一，看看 $HIMS 的仙人掌药丸(cactus pills)是否能作为对抗原油的宏观经济避险资产。
英文原文
$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22. Previously it traded at $70, but given: - $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company - $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1. Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float. All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO: Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short. And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers. Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.
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博主认为当散户和媒体极度看空指数并押注油价暴涨时，是反向看多的信号。
我是唯一一个在以下情况发生时突然转为看多的人吗： - X 上的散户 - WallStreetbets 上的关注者 - Jim Cramer 现在都在对指数发布末日论，并且： 要么做多原油合约，要么认为油价将涨至 150-200 美元？ https://t.co/GoUXV3UM2q
英文原文
Am I the only one that just flipped bullish when: - Retail on X - Regards on WallStreetbets - Jim Cramer Are now all doomposting indexes and are: Either are long crude oil contracts or think oil is going to $150-$200? https://t.co/GoUXV3UM2q
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博主回应攻击，重申对IREN等股ATM稀释的警告是出于散户利益。
谢谢，听到那个消息很遗憾。我只是试图对自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释提出合理的警告。去年我在$BKKT上也做过同样的事，当时ATM增发让所有人的股票跌入深渊。但我现在对$IREN发出警告时，却遭遇了同样的个人攻击。尽管被辱骂，我仍然站在散户投资者的最佳利益立场。
英文原文
Thanks and sorry to hear that. I’m just trying to give justified warnings about ATM dilution. I did the same with $BKKT last year before ATMs sent everyone’s shares to oblivion. But got the same personal attacks like I’m getting with $IREN now. Regardless still looking for retail’s best interest despite the name calling.
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指出IREN风险披露被无视，暗示市场处于非理性阶段。
@CK_Cryptoklepto 我们可能正处于这个阶段，因为我指出 $IREN 的风险披露(risk disclosures)就被称为机器人(bot)了，哈哈 https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
英文原文
@CK_Cryptoklepto We’re probably at this stage since I’m getting called a bot for pointing out $IREN risk disclosures lol https://t.co/DTM73USeMx
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BKKT等公司利用热点炒作后通过ATM减持，散户受损严重。
纵观 $BKKT、$ASST 以及可能的 $IREN，其策略如出一辙。围绕热门叙事（比特币库藏、AI 智能体、数据中心）制造巨大的散户炒作热度，等待股价飙升，随后立即通过定向增发(ATM)抛售股份以资助运营并支付高管基于股票的薪酬(SBC)。公司本身没问题，但个体散户股东受到的伤害最大。
英文原文
Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SBCs. The companies themselves are fine but the individual retail shareholder is left hurt the most.
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呼吁理性看待 $IREN 风险及 ATM 融资争议
没错。很高兴大家能看清全貌，从而就 $IREN 的风险做出明智决策。不幸的是，为了证明 60 亿美元 ATM（自动取款机融资）的合理性，出现了大量人身攻击。但我认为任何理性的投资者都能从噪音中辨别出大方向的正确性。
英文原文
Exactly. It’s good people have the full picture so people can make informed decisions from risks with $IREN. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of personal attacks to explain why the $6B ATM is justified. But I think any rational investor can discern what’s directionally right from the noise.
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反驳对IREN和BKKT风险的忽视，指出巨额烧钱和管理层关联。
@JC_GetRichSlow 当存在60亿美元的重大现金消耗(ATM)时，这并没有为讨论增添任何价值。 此外，$IREN 管理层还参与了 $BKKT 等公司，这也是公开信息。 将明显的风险和历史记录斥为“散布恐慌”是无关紧要的。 https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
英文原文
@JC_GetRichSlow It’s not adding nothing to the dialogue when there’s a material $6 Billion USD ATM. It’s also public information $IREN management was involved companies $BKKT as well. Dismissing clear risks and track records as “fearmongering” is immaterial. https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
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指出IREN管理层过往记录公开，质疑信任其处理稀释的论点。
尽管你可以随意发表看法，但这无法改变事实。关于 $IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的过往记录，所有信息都是公开的。如果某人的核心论点是“信任管理层能处理好稀释问题”，那么了解这一点确实至关重要。
英文原文
Feel free to say whatever you want, but it doesn’t change the reality of things. It’s all public information with $IREN management track record with $BKKT and $ASST. It’s definitely important to know if someone is making the primary argument of trusting in management to handle dilution
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警告 IREN 60 亿 ATM 稀释将重创散户，勿盲目信任管理层。
支持 Iren 进行 60 亿美元稀释的主要论点是： “信任 $IREN 管理层对稀释的管理能力。” 如果你查看 IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的实际历史： 这两家公司都通过自动做市商(ATM)发行彻底摧毁了股东价值。 导致所有原始散户股份价值下跌 98-99%。 像 Bakkt 这样的公司表现尚可。 但高管的股票薪酬 + 稀释抹去了散户的所有股权价值。 如果一家公司申请 60 亿美元的 ATM 稀释，你应该预期他们会使用它并据此调整仓位。 也许 $IREN 的结果会不同。 但一边说“信任管理层”，一边看这些炒作型散户股票的管理层记录 -> ATM 稀释抹去所有价值的情况已多次发生。 公司最终可能没事，别把这和你的股票表现混为一谈。 我最关心散户股东胜过公司高管，这就是我分享关于 $IREN 60 亿 ATM 的红旗信号的原因。
英文原文
The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was: “Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.” If you look at the actual history of IREN management with: $BKKT and $ASST. Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from ATM dilution. Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%. Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay. But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail. If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly. Maybe $IREN turns out differently. But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares. I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.
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ATM融资稀释股东价值，建议等待稀释完成后再买入。
除了自动质押融资(ATM)之外，如果他们想筹集60亿美元，还有其他融资方式。如果不需要走这条路，他们就不会提交申请。 ATM会抹平现有股东的价值，但作为回报，这对公司更有利（例如，没有债务融资的利息）。 如果你是这60亿美元新ATM的流动性提供方，你的上行空间会被封顶，所以在现有持有者被稀释后买入会更好。
英文原文
There are other financing methods than ATMs if they wanted to raise $6B. They wouldn’t have filed it if they didn’t need to go that route. An ATM wipes out current shareholder value but in return it’s better for the company (eg. No interest from debt financing) Your upside is capped if you’re the liquidity for the new $6B ATM, so it’s better to buy back after existing holders get wiped.
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警示ATM融资对散户权益的损害及特定股票风险
我关注散户利益，并对 $CRWV 的债务利息、$RVI 的高估发行以及其他像 $AVS 这样极度稀释股权且利于套利投资者的股票进行同样的风险披露。 $IREN 并非被单独点名，但它是利用散户作为流动性来源的热门股票之一。 定向增发(ATM)可能是对散户权益最具破坏性的融资方式。
英文原文
I care about retail interests and I do the same risk disclosures around $CRWV debt interest, $RVI inflated offerings, and other extremely dilutive stocks like $UAVS that benefit arbitrage investors. $IREN is not singled out, but it’s one of the more popular ones that use retail as liquidity. ATMs are probably the most harmful financing methods for retail equity.
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澄清对IREN的分析仅为风险提示，非买卖建议。
@Peregrino1708 是的，同意。我并没有告诉人们要卖出或买入 $IREN，只是列出风险和最可能的结果。最终人们可以自由做出自己的选择。但拥有基于实质而非其他持有者带来的无关噪音的理性推理是很好的。
英文原文
@Peregrino1708 Yep, agreed. I’m not telling people to sell or buy $IREN, just laying out the risks and most likely outcomes. In the end people are free to make their own choices. But it’s good to have grounded reasoning outside of immaterial noise from other holders.
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指出EWY因穿透结构高度集中于SK海力士和三星。
并非如此，$EWY 主要由 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)构成，这得益于像 SK Square（90% 净资产价值 NAV 来自 SK 海力士）或三星电子的其他投票权结构股份等穿透式结构。 或者是其他三星旗下公司，其净资产价值由持有三星电子股份构成。 它的集中度比绝大多数人意识到的要高得多。
英文原文
Not really, $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung due to pass through structures like SK Square (90% NAV Sk Hynix) or Samsung Electronic’s other voting structure shares. Or other Samsung companies NAV made up of holding Samsung Electronics shares. It’s a lot more concentrated than the vast majority of people realize.
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建议等待 $IREN 稀释周期结束且散户提供流动性后再做多。
是的，这是完美的总结。人们将 $IREN 业务表现良好（我认为作为一家与 $MSFT 合作的 DC 它也会如此）与其股价表现良好混为一谈。等待现有散户/逢低买入者为 60 亿美元的稀释周期提供流动性，待其结束后再建立多头头寸，是高度理性的。
英文原文
Yes this is the perfect summary. People conflate $IREN doing well (which I think it will too as a DC with $MSFT partnership), with their share prices doing well. Waiting for existing retail/dip buyers to serve as liquidity for the $6 billion dilution cycle finishes before going long is a highly rational.
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IREN公司虽能成功，但60亿稀释压力将压制股价。
@mattpurdy89 谢谢，我的观点非常微妙。我认为 $IREN 作为一家公司会取得成功。但这并不意味着你的股价也会上涨。这仅仅是由于 $60 亿不可避免的稀释和抛售压力这一结构性现实所致。
英文原文
@mattpurdy89 Thanks, my thought is very nuanced. I think $IREN as a company will succeed. But that doesn't mean your share prices will too. That's just due to the structural realities of $6B in inevitable dilution and selling pressure.
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批评针对IREN融资的人身攻击，强调应关注实质并维护散户利益。
不幸的是，人们陷入各种人身攻击，而不是讨论 $IREN $60 亿 ATM（自动取款机融资）的实际内容和影响。这只是诚实的现实，情绪很多时候会蒙蔽判断，尤其是当你持有该股票时。无论如何，我将始终优先考虑散户投资者的利益，即使人们想继续人身攻击来为 $60 亿 ATM 辩护。
英文原文
Unfortunately people go into all sorts of character attacks instead of discussing the actual substance and implications $IREN's $6B ATM. This is just the honest reality of things, emotions cloud judgement a lot of times, especially if you hold the stock. Regardless, I'll always look out for retail interest above anyone else, even if people want to continue personal attacks to justify a $6B ATM.
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IREN稀释60亿损害散户利益，建议等待现有股东提供流动性。
是的，$IREN 这家公司在稀释 $60 亿并在公开市场抛售之后，前景可能会不错。然而，这是以牺牲当前散户股东和“逢低买入者”的利益为代价的。如果你关心股票价值的上涨，更明智的选择是等待现有持有者提供流动性。
英文原文
Yep, $IREN as a company will likely do well once they dilute $6B and sell that into the open market. However, this is at the expense of retail equity holders now and "dip buyers". The smarter alternative if you care for your value in the stock to go up is to wait until existing holders serve as liquidity.
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警告散户勿在IREN ATM融资前抄底，建议等待稀释完成后再做多。
如果你读过我的披露声明，我对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益或持仓。 我只是陈述一个残酷的现实：散户“逢低买入者”不可避免地会被稀释，并成为 $IREN 60亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资的流动性来源。 如果你想做多 $IREN 并从股权增值中获利，让其他人先承担稀释冲击，然后再入场做多，可能是更明智的选择。 尤其是因为自动取款机(ATM)融资是更具散户破坏性的融资方式之一。
英文原文
If you read my disclosure, I have zero economic interest or positions in $IREN. I'm just stating the harsh reality that retail "dip buyers" will be inevitably be diluted and serve as liquidity for the $6 Billion ATM. Letting others take the dilution hit first and going long after is likely the smarter alternative if you want to long $IREN and benefit from equity appreciation. Especially since ATMs are one of the more retail-destructive methods to finance.
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作者指出IREN巨额定向增发将压制股价，反驳逢低买入观点。
我在此是为了保护散户利益。我对 $IREN 没有任何经济利益。正如你所说，随波逐流确实容易得多。但残酷的现实是，60亿美元的定向增发(ATM)规模巨大，将成为持有者的结构性压制因素。当一半的市场份额不可避免地通过增发并针对散户抛售时，我无法理解任何人如何能诚实地称其为“逢低买入机会”。
英文原文
I'm here to protect retail interests. I have zero economic interest in $IREN. As you mentioned, it's a lot easier to go with the flow. But the harsh reality is $6B ATM is enormous and will serve as a structural overhang for holders. I can't see how anyone could honestly say it's a "dip buying opportunity" when half of the marketcap is inevitably minted then sold against retail holders.
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IREN巨额ATM增发将严重稀释散户，建议等待稀释完成后再做多。
$IREN 60亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)增发额度非常庞大。 对于持有 $IREN 的人来说，你可能不想听到这个真相： -> 等待现有持有者被稀释到 oblivion（虚无） -> 利用他们为你“抄底”这60亿美元的新股。 -> 然后做多。 如果你现在做多： 那不可避免的60亿美元新股 + 卖压，从结构上限制了你的股权上行空间，并在任何反弹中构成压制。 公司申请60亿美元的ATM额度不是为了不用。 他们会用，并且在任何反弹中尽可能多地使用。 现实是，虽然有其他融资方式，但ATM对散户股东最具破坏性。 $IREN 本身是一家像样的公司，不像电影院股票，但正如提到的过度稀释： 你可能会看到 $IREN 的市值回升至200亿美元左右，但你的股价价值却暴跌。 简而言之：残酷的现实是 $IREN 可能在根本上成功并建立庞大的数据中心(DC)布局。 但这代价是严重稀释散户股东。散户投资者应更关心自己股票价值的增加，而非公司整体价值。 披露：我在该公司没有任何经济利益或持仓，但我确实关心优先考虑散户利益。
英文原文
$IREN $6 Billion ATM is massive. For the people who hold $IREN, the truth you might not want to hear is: -> Wait until existing holders get diluted to oblivion -> Use them to "buy the dip" of $6 Billion in new shares for you. -> Go long after. If you're long now: That inevitable $6B in new shares + selling pressure structurally caps upside in your equity and serves as a overhang in any rally. Companies don’t file a $6B ATM not to use it. They will, and as much as they can on any rally. The reality is that there are other financing methods, but ATMs are the most destructive ones to retail shareholders. $IREN itself is a solid company unlike movie theater stocks, but like excessive dilution referenced: You will likely see the marketcap of $IREN go up back toward $20B, but the your share prices tanking in value. TLDR: The harsh reality is $IREN might fundamentally succeed and build a massive DC footprint. But it's at the cost of heavily diluting retail shareholders. Retail investors should care more about the value of their own stock increasing over the company's value. Disclosure: I have zero economic interest or positions in the company, but I do care about prioritizing retail interest.
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AI使内存需求结构化，SK海力士即便在基准情景下仍被低估。
由于人工智能(AI)，内存需求是结构性的。但价格上涨可能并非如此。 当摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测： ~1329亿美元（2026年）+ ~1670亿美元（2027年）= 未来两年SK海力士(SK Hynix)的营业利润约为3000亿美元，而SK海力士的市值约为4000亿美元。 他们将坐拥大量现金。我甚至没有引用麦格理(Macquarie)预测5000亿美元营业利润的牛市情景，因为那看起来太荒谬了。 但在基准情景下，如果DRAM/NAND价格下跌，创纪录的营业利润回归到早期水平。 由于AI需求使内存需求具有结构性，它看起来仍然被低估。 AI从根本上改变了像GPU或内存这样被标记为“大宗商品”的运作方式。 这不再是2022年智能手机/消费电子需求下降导致价格崩盘，你可以简单地引用低市盈率(P/E)做空像以前那样的大宗商品周期。
英文原文
Memory demand is structural due to AI. Price hikes might not be. When there's Morgan Stanley projections of: ~$132.9B (2026) + ~$167.0B (2027) = ~300B operating profit from SK Hynix in the next two years and SK Hynix's marketcap is ~$400B. They will be sitting on piles of cash. I'm not even citing bull-case projections where Macquarie projects $500B operating income because it looks absurd. But in the base case event that record operating income goes back to earlier levels if dram/nand prices decrease. It still looks undervalued as AI demand makes memory structural. AI fundamentally changes how labelled "commodities" work like GPUs or memory. This is not 2022 where smartphone/consumer electronic decreases crash prices and you can just cite low/pe = short like commodity cycles before.