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因$RDDT隐含波动率高，博主偏好直接持有正股。
@tristanfinazzo $RDDT 的隐含波动率(Implicit Volatility, IV)很高，所以我个人更倾向于只持有正股。
英文原文
@tristanfinazzo $RDDT is high IV so I personally prefer just shares only.
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伊朗冲突利好Reddit，市场定价错误
仅持股。我查看了 Elon 关于 X 平台连续创纪录参与度的帖子： -> 委内瑞拉：创纪录参与度 -> 伊朗：参与度再创新高。 同时我也关注了关于 $PINS / $META 看空论点的评论，即广告商因时间线问题而减少支出。 但 $RDDT 或许是极少数能因战争期间用户参与度/流量激增而获得隔离效应+受益的社交媒体公司之一。 因此我认为伊朗冲突对 Reddit 整体利好，而市场定价错误。
英文原文
Shares only. I was looking Elon's posts about X having record engagement back to back: -> Venezuela: Record engagement -> Iran: Even higher record engagement. And was looking at other comments around $PINS / $META bear case indicators of advertisers pulling spend due to timelines. But $RDDT is perhaps the one of the only few social media companies that has isolation + benefits from a massive spike of user engagement/traffic during war. Hence why I think the conflict in Iran is net bullish for Reddit and markets are pricing it wrong.
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战时流量激增且广告隔离，$RDDT 下季业绩有望大幅超预期。
Reddit ($RDDT) 实际上看起来： 在战时异常看涨。 我的论点是，他们很可能会大幅超出下一个季度的盈利预期。 以下是市场忽略的内容： 1. 战时极端的用户参与度。 重大实时事件期间的两大西方平台：X 和 $RDDT。 像 $PINS 这样的公司可能不会从战争带来的参与度增加中受益，$META 可能仅受益于一小部分增长。 但所有人都涌向 Reddit 和 X。 -> 在全球危机期间，数百万焦急、高意图的搜索查询将人们从 Google 引向 Reddit。 -> 以及对正在发生的事件的直接讨论流量，导致更长的参与度 + 广告展示 + 总体流量。 Elon Musk / X 确认在伊朗冲突初期 X 平台的使用量创纪录。 并确认在委内瑞拉冲突期间参与度创纪录。 Reddit 的情况可能也是如此。 许多数据本月未公开（例如 Similarweb 估算），但我有高度信心，Reddit 在此期间也实现了创纪录的参与度。 委内瑞拉冲突可能导致了短期的活动爆发，但伊朗冲突持续时间较长，是十年来最大的冲突之一。 2. 广告主的避险情绪 通常的观点是 $META 和 X 拥有峰值参与度，但广告主在战时会撤下广告。 特别是因为 $META 和 X 可能在同一个信息流中展示伊朗冲突 + 金融等不同事件的巨大时间线： 然而： $RDDT 是最独特的社交媒体平台之一，因为其 subreddit 是隔离的。 /r/leagueoflegends 或 /r/wallstreetbets 的内容与 /r/iran 和 /r/worldnews 是隔离的。 3. Reddit 保守估计盈利 2026 年 Q1 营收指引 5.95-6.05 亿美元于 2 月初发布，此时尚未受到 2 月下旬伊朗冲突引发的巨大流量异常和可能的广告预算重新分配的影响。 我预期在发布财报时，营收将大幅超出预期。 _ Reddit ($RDDT) 是一个非对称的多头头寸，实际上在战时极度看涨，这与社交媒体总体看跌的普遍假设相反。 目前尚无公开的盈利历史来证明这一点（因为 Reddit 在乌克兰冲突期间尚未上市）。 但我的 alpha/论点是前所未有的： 我们将看到 Reddit 成为战时少数看涨的社交媒体平台之一。 我们将通过其财报来验证这一点是否属实。
英文原文
Reddit ( $RDDT ) in fact looks: Exceptionally Bullish during War. My thesis is that they will likely blow away next quarter earnings expectations. Here's what the market missed: 1. Extreme User Engagement during Wartime. The major two Western outlets during live events: X and $RDDT. Companies like $PINS likely do not benefit from increased engagement from War and $META may benefit from a tiny uptick. But everyone flocks to Reddit and X. -> During a global crisis, millions of frantic, high-intent search queries lead people to Reddit from Google. -> As well as direct traffic from discussion on what's going on, leading to longer-engagement + ad views + traffic in general. Elon Musk / X confirmed record usage of the X platform during the initial conflict with Iran. And confirmed record engagement during the conlifct with Venezuela. This is likely the same with Reddit. A lot of this data is not public this month (eg. Similarweb estimates), but it's high confidence, both Reddit also achieved record engagement during this time. The Venezuela conflict may have led to a short burst in activity, but the Iran conflict is extended and one of the largest ones of the decade. 2. Flight to Safety from Advertisers The typical view is $META and X have peak engagement, but advertisers pull ads during war. Especially as $META and X might show massive timelines of different events from Iran conflict + Finance in one feed: However: $RDDT is one of the most unique social media platforms as they're isolated with subreddits. Things from /r/leagueoflegends or /r/wallstreetbets are isolated from /r/iran and /r/worldnews. 3. Reddit Sandbagging earnings Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $595–$605 million was issued in early February, before the massive traffic anomaly and likely advertiser budget reallocation triggered by the late-February Iran conflict. My expectation is a larger then normal revenue beat when it comes time to announce earnings. _ Reddit ( $RDDT ) is an asymmetric long that's actually extremely bullish during wartime, against common assumption that social media is net bearish. There's been no public earnings history to show this yet (since Reddit was not public during Ukraine conflict). But my alpha/thesis is for the first time ever: We'll see Reddit show up as one of the only bullish social media platforms during war. We'll find out of this is true or not during their earnings.
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博主感谢粉丝并称赞其成长速度。
@Gubloinvestor 谢谢！你自身也在快速增长 :)。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor Thank you! You’re growing really fast yourself :)
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建议在高IV时短期卖出单一航司看跌期权。
@BrunoCptn 不，如果你要卖出看跌期权(Selling Puts)，应该针对像 $AAL 或 $DAL 这样的单一航空公司，且期限要短，隐含波动率(IV)要高。 但这也是个不错的交易思路。
英文原文
@BrunoCptn No, if you’re selling puts do it on individual airliners like $AAL or $DAL, short term, where IV is high. But that’s a great trade idea too
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分享观点但强调因油价等未知因素不建议跟单。
@Vcondry84 谢谢！只是想分享一下。我绝不是建议人们进行这笔交易，因为中期油价等仍有大量未知数。
英文原文
@Vcondry84 Thanks! Just thought I’d share. By no means am I recommending people to take the trade since there’s still a lot of unknowns like mid term oil prices.
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指出当前隐含波动率偏低，而远期单架飞机波动率显著上升。
@platochi 27%-28% 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)仍然非常低。尽管图表走势和波动性相似，但2028年单架飞机的隐含波动率已从35%升至55%。 https://t.co/OhE9wTleTG
英文原文
@platochi 27%-28% IV is still really low. 2028 IV for individual airliners are all elevated from 35->55 despite the charts having similar movements + volatility. https://t.co/OhE9wTleTG
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博主回复称乘坐达美航空经济舱。
@jainsaab88 我坐达美航空(Delta Airlines)的经济舱。
英文原文
@jainsaab88 I get economy class for delta airlines
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$XLU 走势未变，仍是电网/AI/降息驱动的两年期交易。
@RoshiPosts $XLU 的情况没有任何变化，尤其是过去两到三周内。这是一个关于电网现代化、AI 推理和降息的两年期无聊交易。
英文原文
@RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.
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建议避免高IV个股或原油看跌期权，提供反向交易思路。
@drewinvestment 我只是抛出一个具体的交易思路，供看跌油价的人反向操作。我觉得很多人要么交易高隐含波动率(IV)的个股，要么买入高隐含波动率(IV)的原油合约看跌期权，这些交易都很次优。
英文原文
@drewinvestment I’m just floating a specific trade idea for going the other direction of oil prices if people are bearish. Feel like a lot of people take suboptimal trades with either high IV individual stocks or high IV oil contract puts.
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市场前瞻6-12个月，CVX启动期在2028年。
@ehaibag 市场通常具有前瞻性，领先约6-12个月。此外，2028年也在$CVX启动的时间范围内。 https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
英文原文
@ehaibag Markets are forward looking by like 6-12 months. Also 2028 is in the timeframe $CVX gets going. https://t.co/auxkgQe86Q
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建议通过做多低波动率的$JETS期权来反向博弈原油价格。
如果你想反向操作吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的原油交易，这里有一个交易思路： 做多 $JETS（美国航空股ETF）2028年看涨期权，此时隐含波动率（IV）为25%。 它的定价显示低贝塔值（25% IV），但本月跌幅达20%。 单独做多 $DAL 或 $AAL 的隐含波动率高达55%以上，而该ETF的波动率基本保持在相近水平。 此外，美国在原油方面相比世界其他地区更具隔离性，且该ETF主要集中于美国航空公司。 航空股与原油走势相反并非什么秘密。 当然，如果吉姆·克拉默、Wallstreetbets和X上的末日论者关于200美元油价的预测成真，这笔交易存在风险。 但鉴于当前时间点，油价有足够的均值回归空间，加上委内瑞拉产量恢复。 简而言之：如果你想做原油的反向操作，隐含波动率低于30%的 $JETS 是最佳选择。
英文原文
For trade ideas if you want to inverse Jim Cramer on the oil trade: Long $JETS (US Airliner ETF) 2028 calls where IV is 25%. It’s priced low beta (25% IV) but it moved -20% this month. Individual long on $DAL or $AAL carries elevated 55%+ IV, while the ETF basically moves relatively around the same rate. US is largely insulated regarding oil compared to the rest of the world as well and the ETF is concentrated around US airliners. Not exactly a very well kept secret airliners move in the opposite direction of oil. Of course this trade carries risks in the event Jim Cramer, Wallstreetbets, and X doomposters are actually right about $200 oil. But given the date, there’s enough time for oil prices to revert to mean + Venezuela production to get rolling. TLDR: if you want to go the other direction of crude oil, $JETS at sub 30 IV is the best way to go.
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建议反向操作WSB赌徒、散户看空者及Jim Cramer的一致观点。
@ehaibag 不，我唯一期待的是： - 所有在 WSB 上购买原油合约的赌徒。 - X 上所有唱衰大盘的散户指数看空者。 - 以及吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)。 如果他们在同一件事上达成一致，他们就会错。 大概会反向操作。
英文原文
@ehaibag No the only thing I’m expecting is - all the gamblers buying crude oil contracts on WSB. - All the retail index doomposters on X. - And Jim Cramer. To be wrong if they agree on the same thing. Probably do the opposite.
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当散户与名嘴一致看空时，油价反而大跌，反向指标再次应验。
生活中只有一件事是确定的。如果吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)、华尔街赌徒(Wallstreetbets)以及 X 上的散户末日论者都就一件事达成共识：油价将涨至 150-200 美元，且可能陷入衰退。那么他们一定是错的。原油日内已从 116 美元下跌 16% 至 98 美元。https://t.co/xgjgxLRCq1
英文原文
There’s only one certainty in life. If Jim Cramer. Wallstreetbets. And retail doomposters on X. All agree on one thing: Oil to 150-200 and a possible recession. It’s wrong. Crude Oil has since dropped 16% intraday from 116 to 98. https://t.co/xgjgxLRCq1
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调侃IQE可能面临信心危机。
@CryptoVandelay 😂，$IQE 可能面临信心危机。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay 😂, $IQE might have confidence issues.
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光子学作为AI新范式，不受地缘政治及油价波动影响。
领先的光子学(Photonics)公司并不关心原油价格飙升。 $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% 光子学是人工智能(AI)的下一个范式，伊朗战争不会改变这一点。 https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
英文原文
Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking. $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn’t change that. https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
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分析空头回补的三种可能情景及价格影响。
@LandoInvests 大多数时候这不会在一天内发生（如果买盘压力足够大，有时确实会）。可能会像 $TSLA 那样，随着基本面改善，空头回补。或者第三种情况，什么也没发生（投降式抛售 -> 买入平仓但未推动价格上涨）。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@LandoInvests Most of the time it doesn’t happen over one day (sometimes it does if there’s enough buying pressure). Could end up like $TSLA where shorts buy back as fundamentals improve. Or scenario three, nothing (capitulation -> buy to cover without moving price). We’ll see what happens.
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博主强调独立思考，欣慰粉丝在复杂交易中建立信念。
听到这个很高兴！我不希望大家进行跟单交易或盲目跟随。主要目的只是分享我随行的思考，希望人们能从中有所收获。如果他们能自行建立信念，去参与像 $AXTI 这样高度复杂的交易，那就更好了。很高兴你在 $EWY 或 $IREN 的衍生品上也做到了这一点。
英文原文
That’s great to hear! I don’t want people to copy trade or just blindly follow. Main thing is just sharing my thoughts as I go and I hope people learn a few things along the way. And if they can build conviction themselves to enter a highly nuanced trade like $AXTI, that’s even better And I’m glad you did with some derivatives on $EWY or $IREN.
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博主感谢粉丝互动助力其近期粉丝量激增。
谢谢！我很确定年初时我的粉丝数大概在 8,000 到 12,000 之间。非常惊讶我在过去两个月里就获得了大部分粉丝。其中很大一部分归功于像你这样的人长期以来通过 $NBIS 等内容与我互动。X 平台很棒的一点是，网络中的每个人都在共同成长。
英文原文
Thanks! Pretty sure I started at like 8-12k at the beginning of the year. Very surprised I gained majority of my following in the last two months alone. Large part of it is people like yourself interacting with me over time with stuff like $NBIS. Cool thing about X is everyone in the network kind of grows together
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博主回应称只是个人分享日常想法。
@ButcherKuka 我只是一个人，只是在分享我一天中的想法！
英文原文
@ButcherKuka I’m one person just sharing my thoughts throughout the day!
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HIMS需散户逼空，最坏情况可低价买入优质公司。
我只是对当前局势补充一些评论。$HIMS 确实需要大量的散户买入压力来迫使空头回补(Short Squeeze)。但我不知道事态会如何发展，最坏的情况是，你能以低于法律纠纷发生前的价格买到一家基本面扎实的公司。最终，人们应该自己做决定！
英文原文
I’m just adding commentary on the current situation. $HIMS does require a lot of retail buying pressure to force cover. But no idea how this unfolds, worse case scenario you get a solid company at prices lower than before the legal drama. People should make their own decision in the end!
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肯定HIMS基本面与分销网络，批评做空机构
@moninvestor 从根本上说，$HIMS 是一家非常稳健的公司，拥有宝贵的分销网络。否则，如果它是一只没有基本面的 meme 股，我也不会提及它。话虽如此，我希望那些对 $HIMS 进行方向性做空的对冲基金得到他们应得的下场。 https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
英文原文
@moninvestor It is, fundamentally $HIMS is a very solid company with a valuable distribution network. Otherwise wouldn’t be mentioning it if it were a meme stock with no fundamentals. That being said, I hope those directional hedge fund shorting HIMS get what they deserve. https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
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HIMS宣布与NVO合作，高做空率或引发类似GME的空头挤压。
突发消息：$HIMS 首席执行官宣布与 $NVO 建立合作伙伴关系。 这证实了彭博社周五的报道。 鉴于超过40%的流通盘被做空，且与诺和诺德(Novo)的合作关系透明化： 下周该股将成为以下双方的战场： 散户 vs. 做空者。 如果散户获胜且不投降，可能会引发类似游戏驿站(GameStop)从3美元涨至150美元以上的最大规模空头挤压(short squeeze)之一。
英文原文
Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO. This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg. With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership: This next week will end up as a battleground stock for: Retail vs. Short Seller. And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.
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博主庆祝粉丝破十万，感谢关注并重申坚持免费分享研究心得的初心。
哇……刚刚达到 10 万粉丝！ 很高兴这么多人觉得我对 $AAOI 到 $EWY 的观点有帮助。 回顾来看，我想这 largely 是因为我坚持了最初的做法： -> 信息综合 -> 寻找人们未曾关注的新角度 -> 从小型瓶颈到大型科技公司，发布可执行的交易思路 -> 如果结果正确就庆祝！ 我认为去年大部分案例： 从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 最终都看对了，实现了翻倍或三倍，因此近期人气高涨。 没多少人感兴趣于研究过程，但当他们两个月后看到成果时，我想他们开始更关注了？ 无论如何，我会继续做我在拥有 800 粉丝时做的事。那时只有我和一些 Reddit 上的朋友。 但 X 给我这个机会与他人分享想法，这太棒了。 达到 10 万粉丝对我来说是一种轻微的验证，表明我免费发布的想法至少值得阅读（即使你不跟随操作）。 所以，只想对你们所有人说声谢谢！
英文原文
Wow… 100K followers just now! Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful. From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start: -> information synthesis -> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at -> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies. -> celebrating if they turn out correct! And I think majority of them from last year: From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity. Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention? Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit. But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others. Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them). So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
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AAOI暗示其美国产能超COHR，引发关注
@Blazedsin 我的意思是 $AAOI 基本上发出了信号，表明其美国产能大于 $COHR，这算是个挺大的新闻。
英文原文
@Blazedsin I mean $AAOI basically signaled their US production capacity is bigger than $COHR, which is pretty big news
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内部人士抛售非有效指标，应关注公司指引与盈利。
@Andandandwhat 使用上市公司内部人士抛售(Insider sales)作为指标，可能是任何人都能用的最愚蠢的指标。真正重要的是公司的业绩指引(company projections)和盈利(earnings)。人们有权获利了结(take profits)，有人卖出股票并不会改变营收(revenue)数据。
英文原文
@Andandandwhat Insider sales of public companies is perhaps the dumbest metric anyone can use. What matters is their company projections and earnings. People are free to take profits, someone selling shares doesn’t change revenue numbers
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$AAOI获超大规模客户大额订单，基本面验证优于内部人抛售担忧。
“$AAOI 收到来自主要超大规模客户的首笔 1.6T 数据中心光收发器(Transceivers) 2 亿美元批量订单” “我们预计很快将成为美国最大的 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器产能基地” 这逐渐证实了他们盈利预测中每月 3.78 亿美元的收入预期。 人们曾对内部人抛售感到恐慌，但关键在于执行力和基本面。 尤其是当他们获得来自 $AMZN、$META 或 $GOOGL 等超大规模客户(Hyperscalers)的批量订单时。
英文原文
$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer” “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S” This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections. People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals. Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL
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指出无主观故意的市场崩盘难追责，致其反复发生。
@pepemoonboy 不幸的是，只要没有主观故意，犯错并导致股市崩盘并不违法。由于难以举证，他们就可以像本周看到的那样，一次又一次地重蹈覆辙而无需承担后果。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Unfortunately being wrong and crashing stock markets while at it is not illegal, as long as there’s no intent. Hard to prove, so they can just do it again and again without consequences as we’ve seen this week
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甲骨文澄清阿比林数据中心进展，回应彭博社引发的抛售。
彭博社关于 OpenAI 和 $ORCL 的报道在周五引发了大规模抛售。 涉及从 $LITE 到 $MU 的半导体供应链。 今天，甲骨文发布声明回应彭博社： “近期关于阿比林（Abilene）站点的媒体报道是虚假且不正确的。 首先，Crusoe 和甲骨文正紧密协作，以破纪录的速度交付全球最大的 AI 数据中心之一。 其次，甲骨文已完成额外 4.5GW 的租赁，以履行我们对 OpenAI 的承诺。” 此前，商务部周四已驳斥了关于 $NVDA 和 $AMD 出口管制的虚假报道。
英文原文
Bloomberg’s piece on OpenAI and $ORCL triggered a massive selloff Friday. Of the semi supply chain from $LITE to $MU. Today, Oracle put out a statement in response to Bloomberg: “Recent media activity about the Abilene site are false and incorrect. First, Crusoe and Oracle are operating in lockstep to deliver one of the world's largest AI Data centers in Abilene at record-breaking pace. Second, Oracle has completed leasing for the additional 4.5GW to deliver on our commitments to OpenAI.” This comes following the Department of Commerce denying the false reports around $NVDA and $AMD export controls on Thursday.
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澄清 $IREN 董事会即管理层，区别于普通工程师。
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk 我表述得很准确。董事会(Board of Directors)就是 $IREN 的管理层。如果是某个随机的工程师，那就不一样了。
英文原文
@LandoInvests @chiptomunk I phrased it correctly. Board of directors is $IREN management. If it were some random engineer, then no.