· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AAOI$COHR$LITE$MRVL$POET$SIVE$SOI$TSM
三件事： 1/ 通常，市值越小，上涨空间越大（但风险也更高） 2/ 寻找那些未被定价进当前可插拔光模块周期的公司（EML光收发器公司如$LITE和$COHR） 3/ 纯业务布局即将到来的CPO/硅光子学范式转换。 说到追求“最高上涨空间”： 如果你看$MRVL的Celestial产品线对比$TSM的COUPE，两者都是大体量公司，而这只是它们营收的一小部分。所以这很可能被排除，除非交易员使用期权。 像$SOI的SOI衬底这类产品会对营收产生更实质性的影响（更高的上涨空间）。 然后还有像上游激光供应商$SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> 超大规模云厂商供应链这样的环节，我已识别为高潜力受益者。 但像$AAOI这样的公司在800G/1.6T可插拔光模块周期中仍有巨大的上涨空间。 我相信市场上有许多被错误定价或未知的投资机会…… CPO规模化应用的TAM（总可寻址市场）像是垂直上升的，但像$SIVE这样的产品用于规模化应用的光源和激光阵列。
Three things: 1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk) 2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR) 3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift. In terms of chasing “highest upside”: If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options. Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside). Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary. But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle. I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.