个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 21 / 45 页
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HOOD财报后牛市或终结，短期震荡，需靠国际化或发币破局。
在财报发布后，我开始感觉 $HOOD 的牛市周期已经结束。 我不认为它会崩盘，但可能会在一段时间内保持区间震荡。 看到营收同比增速放缓至 27%，而在 800 亿美元市值下，远期 35 倍市盈率 (P/E) 的估值可能会膨胀至 45-50 倍以上。 这种增长部分是通过收购（例如收购 Bitstamp）买来的，而不是像过去那样通过新功能变现实现的。 长期来看它仍有潜力，但短期面临太多逆风。 唯一的慰藉是加密市场正在复苏。 或者 - 尽快进行国际股票扩张（$IBKR 正在大量吸纳资金流，因为投资者希望配置日本或韩国等其他国家的市场） - 在其新区块链上推出代币，以便像 BNB 和币安那样增加资产负债表规模。 以及其他一些想法等。 我不认为依赖预测市场 (prediction markets) 是正确的选择。为了短期利益这样做，形象 (optics) 肯定很差。
英文原文
Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile. Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC. That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past. Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds. The saving grace is crypto market recovering. Or - International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea) - Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance. With some other ideas, etc. Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.
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持有RDDT多头，因看涨期权IV过高而不看好期权交易。
@number1invest_ 我只是持有 $RDDT 的多头头寸。Reddit 看涨期权（Calls）的隐含波动率（Implied Volatility, IV）真的很高，所以我不太看好。
英文原文
@number1invest_ I’m just long $RDDT shares. IV is really high for Reddit calls so not a fan.
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认为LITE长期价值未完全定价，短期涨幅已大。
@mhayavkay 你意识到很多产能爬坡(ramp)发生在2028年吗？ 对于像 $LITE 这样占 Google TPU BOM 约 8-12% 的公司，我认为其长期价值尚未完全反映在股价中（短期已反映，过去一个月已上涨 70%）。https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
英文原文
@mhayavkay You do realize a lot of the ramp happens 2028 right? For stuff like $LITE which is ~8-12 of Google TPU BOM, I don't quite think it's priced in long term yet (short term yes, it rallied 70% 1M). https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI
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反驳媒体观点，指出三星扩产HBM4不影响SanDisk的NAND业务。
如果非要简化来说。三星和 $SNDK 都是“农夫”。三星想种牛油果（HBM4）。他们把一半的农田用来生产更高价的牛油果。$SNDK 表示他们将继续种植玉米（NAND）。三星卖出更多牛油果并不会影响玉米市场。事实上，这甚至可能让玉米更贵。所以媒体说因为三星要做牛油果导致 SanDisk 下跌，这毫无道理。
英文原文
If I had to try and make it simpler. Samsung and $SNDK are both farmers. Samsung wants to farm avocados (HBM4). They dedicate half their farmland to make produce higher priced avocados. $SNDK says they're going to keep growing corn (NAND). Samsung selling more avocados does not affect the corn market. In fact it might even make it more expensive. So all the media saying Sandisk is dropping because Samsung wants to make avocados makes no sense.
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Reddit财报亮眼且具网络效应，优于面临逆风的HOOD/HIMS。
持有 $RDDT 第1天：+5.83%。 Reddit 正在快速增长，同比增长50%+（本季度同比增长70%），且净利润是其收入的1/3。 毛利率高达91%，这高得离谱。 令我惊讶的是，更多 $HOOD 或 $HIMS 的持有者在财报后看到收入减速或受到冲击，却没有进行调仓。 其他公司面临的是实际的结构性收入逆风，而 Reddit 只是来自 AI 颠覆的噪音。
英文原文
Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%. Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue. Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high. Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption. You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.
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NBIS类似早期ASTS，营收爆发尚需时日，目前处于等待期。
@retail_mourinho 没错！🐂 $NBIS。Nebius 让我想起早期的 $ASTS，你大概预期营收会大幅增长，但这还需要一段时间，所以看起来像是一场等待游戏。
英文原文
@retail_mourinho Yep!🐂 $NBIS. Nebius reminds me of early $ASTS where you kinda expect the revenue to scale up immensely but it’s awhile away, so seems like a waiting game.
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用7N高纯铟指标追踪AXTI涨价及毛利提升。
@zephyr_z9 确实，7N高纯度铟（非标准产品）是我洗澡或睡觉时脑海中唯一的事情。但我将其作为衍生指标，用来追踪 $AXTI 可能的涨价、需求以及毛利率提升，因为这些在公开数据中并不明显。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 True, 7N high purity indium (non standard products) is the only thing on my mind when I'm in the shower or sleeping. But it's the derivative metric I use to track $AXTI possible price hikes + demand + gross margin increases since it's not really visible from public data.
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澄清NBIS产能与基建概念，指出市场担忧其融资稀释。
我认为这是将他们对主动产能（已满负荷，意味着 $NBIS 需求旺盛）的表述，与他们正在建设的 2.5GW 签约管道及基础设施混为一谈了。不过我们拭目以待，$NBIS 上次意外获得了 $META 的合同，但市场显然不喜欢其伴随的 ATM（自动取款机融资）/稀释效应。
英文原文
I think that’s conflating their words for active capacity (maxed out, meaning $NBIS has high demand) with the 2.5GW contracted pipeline + infrastructure they’re building out. But we’ll see, $NBIS had a surprise $META contract last time but markets clearly didn’t like the ATM/dilution.
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基于排除法看好$NBIS财报，预计其多业务线高增长，建议财报期间持有。
在看到 $IREN 财报未披露新的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)交易后， 又看到超大规模客户的资本支出(capex)呈指数级增长： -> 通过排除法，$NBIS 在财报中“有所准备”的可能性越来越大。 过去几周的几个简版(TLDR)利好因素： - 旧款GPU价格大幅上涨（见前文）。有利于资产负债表 - GPU供应断崖式下跌（需求激增） - 超大规模客户资本支出激增（很大一部分被归因于数据中心DCs） - $NBIS 本季度可能已通过2500万股的按需发行(ATM)计划，希望稀释的尽头已现。 - Clickhouse以150亿美元估值融资（接近母公司估值） - “Uber不再自主研发Robotaxi”，转而依赖Avride（Nebius子公司）等合作伙伴 前景看好。 随着股价重置至92美元，如果Nebius仍有望在年底实现70-90亿美元ARR（同比增长700%+），财报期间应持有多头仓位。 当然，我预计大部分增长将在2026年下半年至明年一季度发生，届时50亿美元的建设资本支出将转化为80亿美元的中位营收+自由现金流(FCF)。 持有 $NBIS 基本上等于持有5家公司，每家都保持三位数同比增长，等待估值反映分部加总(Sum of Parts)+增长。
英文原文
After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals. And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing: -> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination. Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks: - Older GPUs have massively increased in price (see previous). Better for balance sheet - GPU availability dropped off the roof (increased demand) - Hyperscaler capex spend blowout (a large portion was cited for DCs) - $NBIS likely went through the 25M share ATM this quarter so hopefully the end of dilution is in sight. - Clickhouse raising at $15B valuation (getting close to main company valuation) - “Uber is not returning to developing its own robotaxis” and relying on partners like Avride (Nebius subsidiary) Things are looking good. With the price reset to $92, if Nebius is still on track for $7-9B ARR EOY (700%+ y/y), should be a positive hold through earnings. Of course I expect most of the ramp to happen H2 2026 to Q1 next year as the $5B in buildout capex spend converts to recognized $8B midpoint revenue + FCF. With $NBIS, you’re basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y and waiting for valuation to reflect Sum of Parts + growth.
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批评Burry做空PLTR仅凭技术分析，无视基本面。
@michaeljburry 我现在确信这家伙只是运气好，在看到他发布的 $PLTR 图表后做空了顶部。 完全没有提及基本面，只是引用了洗发水技术分析（Shampoo TA）作为 $PLTR 暴跌的原因。 我不持有 Palantir，但这纯粹是占星术。
英文原文
@michaeljburry Now I’m convinced this guy just got lucky shorting the top after seeing his posted chart for $PLTR. Zero mentions of fundamentals, just cited an shampoo TA for the reason of $PLTR crashing. I don’t own Palantir but this is just astrology.
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AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。
$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。 这是价格上涨的衍生反映。 有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。 从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。 原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。 前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。 但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。 正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。 我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。 不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。 与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。 但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。
英文原文
$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.
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CRDO发布初步营收以稳股价，正式财报3月2日披露。
@AI_PowerFlow 初步营收数据，大概只是为了阻止 $CRDO 进一步暴跌。他们通常不会这么做。 正式财报将于3月2日发布。
英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow Preliminary revenue, probably just to stop $CRDO from tanking further. They don't typically do this. Actual report comes out March 2nd.
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CRDO财报大超预期，中期恐慌被夸大，逢低买入机会显著。
想象一下，当 $CRDO 跌至 $95（市值 $170 亿）时陷入恐慌。如果你在那时买入，在今天初步财报(ER)发布后的一周内，收益将超过 52.6%。中期担忧被夸大了。今年营收同比增长 200%+。Q3 2026 指引从 $3.4 亿上调至 $4.06 亿（大幅超预期）。话虽如此，光子学转换带来的长期风险依然存在（因为这是中期指引）。不过，Credo 未来仍将是 AI 建设的重要组成部分，只是失去了其默认的“领导者”地位。跌至 $95 的抛售可能是今年最大的逢低买入机会之一。
英文原文
Imagine panicking with $CRDO at $95 ($17B MC). If you bought then it would be a 52.6%+ gain in a week after today's preliminary ER. Mid-term fears were overblown. 200%+ YoY revenue growth for this year. $340M guidance -> $406M (huge beat) for Q3 2026 guidance. That being said, long term risks are still with photonics transitions (since this is medium term guidance). But, Credo will be a core part of the AI buildout in the future, it just loses it's defacto "leader" status. The selloff to $95 was may have been one of the biggest dip-buying opportunities this year.
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小仓位持有AEVA押注4D AI及CPO技术突破，虽无大量现金流但值得冒险。
~14.1美元。基本上就是当前的价格水平。 话虽如此，这是一个小仓位，因为 $AEVA 本质上是对 4D AI 的风险投资式押注。据报道，他们还利用相同技术在共封装光学(CPO)领域取得了突破。 它不像 $RDDT 那样产生大量的自由现金流(FCF)，但我认为值得冒这个险。
英文原文
~$14.1. So basically where prices are now. That being said this is a small position since $AEVA company is inherently a venture bet on 4D AI. They also made a breakthrough for CPO using the same technology apparently. It’s not generating massive FCF like $RDDT, but decided it was worth the risk.
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对比OUST与AEVA技术路线，探讨OUST作为4D AI投资标的的逻辑。
显然，$OUST 更偏向于“概率性 AI (Probabilistic AI)”，而 $AEVA 的调频连续波(FMCW)技术解决的是词元模型(word models)所需的确定性物理 AI (Deterministic Physical AI)。 “FMCW 通过多普勒频移直接提供速度这一物理测量值，而飞行时间(ToF)技术则需要跨帧进行计算推导”。 也许你可以帮忙阐述一下 $OUST 的细微差别，以及为什么你认为它是更好的 4D AI 投资标的。
英文原文
Apparently $OUST sits more in “Probabilistic AI”while $AEVA FMCW solves the Deterministic Physical AI that word models need “FMCW gives velocity as a direct physical measurement (Doppler shift) versus ToF requiring computational derivation across frames”. Maybe you can help articulate the nuance with $OUST and why you think it’s better exposure to 4D AI
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看好4D AI趋势，建仓$AEVA作为中游瓶颈的投机性敞口。
说到像 $AXTI 这样的其他瓶颈环节。 我一直在研究 4D AI。 与行业内部人士的交谈让我相信，继 $NVDA 黄仁勋的会议后，物理 AI 和人形机器人的“世界模型(World Models)”是一个即将到来的趋势。 因此我建仓了从事 4D 激光雷达(4D LiDAR)的 $AEVA。 根据我的研究，这看起来是该趋势中最清晰的功能性中游瓶颈敞口？ 除非有人想提及其他标的。 还有像 $AMBA、$U（是的，是游戏软件）、$TER 和 $OUST 这样的公司，但它们体量较大，且敞口不够清晰。 话虽如此，这仍是一个新领域，所以我仍在进行研究。此外，基本面尚不稳定，因此这更多是对行业增长的创投型押注。 披露：我仅持有 $AEVA 的多头头寸，作为对 4D AI 及物理 AI 世界模型的投机性敞口。
英文原文
Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI. I’ve been looking into 4D AI. Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference. So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? Unless someone has others they’d like to mention. There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure. That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth. Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.
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AXTI具垄断瓶颈地位，若提价将获估值重估。
@platochi @soulbiri1 我完全不知道 $AXTI 会如何发展。他们处于近乎垄断的瓶颈位置，所以如果他们愿意，可以像 $SNDK 和 $MU 那样大幅提价——从而获得巨大的估值重估。这主要取决于他们是否会这样做。
英文原文
@platochi @soulbiri1 I have zero clue how $AXTI plays out. They’re a near-monopoly choke point so if they wanted to they can hike prices like $SNDK and $MU -> be rerated massively. It’s mainly a matter if they’re going to do it or not.
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$AXTI 一周大涨63%，市场开始定价上游供应链瓶颈。
$AXTI 一周上涨 63.29%，创年度新高。 受 $GOOGL 财报影响，光子学(Photonics)板块迎来疯狂反弹。 市场终于开始对上游瓶颈进行定价。
英文原文
$AXTI up 63.29% in 1 week to new yearly highs. What a crazy photonics rally off $GOOGL earnings. Markets are finally pricing in upstream bottlenecks. https://t.co/YdEOofJWN8
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分析软件股受AI影响差异，首选RDDT并寻找新机会。
仍在研究软件板块以寻找机会。$SPOT 和 $NFLX 是那些未被 AI 颠覆的公司，因为其大部分业务为授权模式。Netflix 的下跌原因更多元，涉及收购因素。不过这两只股票此前估值已很高。 $DUOL 看起来更合理。我对 $ADBE 了解不够。 现在是厘清哪些业务会被颠覆，哪些虽无实质影响（但被板块性抛售）的好时机。 $RDDT 是我首选标的，我仍在寻找其他机会。
英文原文
Still doing research into software segment for opportunities. $SPOT, $NFLX is something that's not disrupted by AI because majority of it is licensing. Netflix drop is more multifaceted bc of acquisition.Those two were richly valued though. $DUOL make more sense. Dont know enough about $ADBE. It's a good time to figure out what gets disrupted, and what has no material effect (but gets sold off in the bucket). $RDDT was my top pick, I'm still looking for others.
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看好因AI叙事被错杀的Reddit，强调其网络效应护城河。
我对 $APP 了解不够，无法评论。话虽如此，我一直在寻找那些部分因“AI”颠覆叙事而被抛售的股票，$RDDT 是我个人的选择。市场误解了网络效应护城河。我一天就能做出 Reddit，但价值在于所有人都同意使用它。
英文原文
I don’t know enough about $APP to comment. That being said I’ve been looking for stocks sold off partly because of “AI” disruption narratives and $RDDT is personally my choice. Markets misunderstand network effect moat. I can make Reddit in a day but value comes from everyone agreeing to use it.
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Reddit数据授权收入占比极小，非核心因素
我特意指出，向 OpenAI 或 Gemini 等大语言模型(LLM)进行数据授权仅占 $RDDT 收入的极小部分。如果我是大语言模型公司，我也不会想使用 subreddit 数据进行训练。因此，这在未来并非关键因素，若有新协议，该板块收入反而可能增加。
英文原文
I made sure to point out data licensing to LLMs like OpenAi or Gemini is an extremely tiny portion of $RDDT revenue. If I were an LLM company I would not want to be training on subreddit data anyway. So non-factor going forward, if anything new deals would probably increase that segment.
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Reddit财报强劲且资产负债表优异，网络效应护城河深，看好其估值修复。
我在$139做多$RDDT。 Reddit在上月下跌44.9%后呈现出绝佳的机会。 Q4财报大爆，但短期期权链+流动性可能正在影响价格。 结果摘要： Q4营收：7.26亿美元（同比增长70%） 净利润：2.52亿美元 现金：约25亿美元，0债务。 2026年Q1指引：5.95亿-6.05亿美元（同比增长52%-54%） 数据授权仅占3600万美元（因此其余均为运营收入）。 这是$HOOD级别的盈利能力和惊人的资产负债表。在营收同比增长70%的同时，净利润接近营收的1/3，这太不可思议了。 远期市盈率模型可能在27-30左右（参考$WMT目前46+且仅随通胀增长） Reddit不会消失。你无法通过用Opus 4.6和Cursor进行氛围编码(vibecoding)来颠覆Reddit，因为其核心在于网络效应。 Reddit是一台等待溢价回归的印钞机。
英文原文
I'm long $RDDT at $139. Reddit presents an incredible opportunity after the -44.9% drop last month. Blowout Q4 earnings, but likely short-term option chain + liquidity influencing price. Results TLDR: Q4 Revenue: $726M (70% Y/Y growth) Net Income: $252M Cash: ~$2.5 Billion, 0 Debt. Q1 2026 Guidance: $595M – $605M (52% – 54% YoY) Data licensing was only $36 Million of it (so this was all operational). This is $HOOD levels profitability and incredible blaance sheet. To have net income reach close to ~1/3 of revenue, while growing 70% Y/Y, is incredible. Modeled forward P/E may be around ~27-30 ( $WMT for reference 46+ now growing in line with inflation) Reddit is not going anywhere. You can't disrupt Reddit by vibecoding it with Opus 4.6 and Cursor, because the main point of it is network effect. Reddit is a money printer waiting for premiums to catch up.
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AXTI因磷化铟供应链瓶颈及政策利好，6周涨60%，成重要瓶颈多头标的。
@Berlinergy 我几乎可以肯定昨天发过一条关于 $AXTI 的帖子。 https://t.co/pq6tLRcrIS （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 自首次发布 $AXTI 帖子以来已过去6周。 股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没人在这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股上讨论过。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学(Photonics)的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元市值的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止向其竞争对手提供前体 - 7N级磷化铟价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland融资1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟供应链 已经6周了。我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将加速增长。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前建立自己的信念很重要。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
英文原文
@Berlinergy Pretty sure I made an $AXTI related post yesterday https://t.co/pq6tLRcrIS
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RKLB是长期看多标的，若超涨至90美元以上将减仓等待回调。
是的，抱歉没有澄清其中的细微差别。在10年的时间框架内，$RKLB 是我对比特币最看好的标的。话虽如此，如果它看起来过度延伸至90美元以上，我不介意减仓并等待再次下跌时的买入机会。市场不会直线上涨。
英文原文
Yeah sorry for not clarifying the nuance. $RKLB is my most bullish pick with Bitcoin on a 10 year timeframe. That being said, if it looks overextended to $90+, I’m not afraid to trim and wait for opportunities to buy it if it drops again. Markets don’t move in a straight line up
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持有CRDO因超跌，看好光子供应链相关个股。
@Frenchie_ 我持有 $CRDO，因为我认为跌至 95 美元是巨大的过度反应。 但我看好光子学(Photonics)供应链，比如 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 这类公司。
英文原文
@Frenchie_ I have $CRDO on there since I felt the selloff to $95 was a huge overreaction. But I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies
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补充FLY为登月级标的，RKLB短期高估但下跌可重仓。
@DanielM16458500 哦，我忘了把 $FLY 作为与 $NOC 合作的中程发射(medium lift launch)的“登月级(moonshot)”标的列入。我的个人投资组合里有很多我没列出的奇怪小众标的。 关于 $RKLB，我再次觉得它短期被高估，但如果进一步下跌，我会重仓加仓。
英文原文
@DanielM16458500 Oh I forgot to include $FLY as a moonshot pick for their medium lift launch with $NOC. I have a lot of weird niche picks in my personal porffolio that I didn’t include. $RKLB again I felt was near term overvalued but I’d add heavy concentration if it dropped further.
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列举国防股标的，认为RKLB短期高估但长期首选。
$OSS、$AIRO、$DPRO、$LPTH（勉强算）是国防股。忘了在上面加上 $AVAV，但我会把它加在 $259 的位置。 由于与格陵兰达成和平协议，近期没有真正的军事催化剂。但随着新的伊朗紧张局势，它们可能会再次受到关注。 话虽如此，我觉得 $RKLB 目前有点被高估，但长期来看它是我首选的标的。
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$OSS, $AIRO, $DPRO, $LPTH (sorta) are defense stocks. Forgot to include $AVAV up there but I’d add that in at $259. There was peace with Greenland so no really military catalysts recently. But they might pick up again with new Iran tensions. That being said just feel like $RKLB is a tad overvalued right now but long term it’s my favorite pick
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澄清未称SNDK为最弱，指出其高波动但远期估值低、增长强劲。
@yepyepmf 我什么时候说过 $SNDK 是最薄弱环节了？ 它只是这群公司里波动性最大的内存厂商，但 2027 年的远期市盈率(Forward P/E)看起来很低，所以增长轨迹看起来相当夸张。 https://t.co/OFhiqtOH4O
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@yepyepmf Where did I ever say $SNDK was the weakest link? It’s just the most volatile memory company out the bunch but forward p/e for 2027 looks low, so the growth trajectory looks hilarious. https://t.co/OFhiqtOH4O
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看好RDDT财报后回调机会，认为OSS有望因国防合同重估。
$RDDT 财报后跌至 $139，感觉再次成为强力买入标的。财报表现很棒，看起来像是期权相关的抛售。 $OSS 是一只针对边缘 AI + 国防支出的“登月式”小盘股选择。我曾发帖指出他们已在委内瑞拉实战中得到验证。如果能拿下那笔 $2.00 亿合同，估值重估将易如反掌。
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$RDDT feels like a strong buy again after drop to $139 post earnings. Earnings felt great, looked option related selloff. $OSS is a moonshot type small cap pick for edge AI + defense spend. I made a post that showed they were already validated in Venezuela combat. If they can secure that $200m contract, could easily be re-rated.
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对比三星与SK海力士，前者更均衡，后者是纯内存标的。
@ChiefLiquidity 三星优于SK海力士，因为三星的业务更多元化。话虽如此，如果你想要像$SNDK那样的纯内存（Memory）上行收益，SK海力士是最佳选择。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity Samsung over SK Hynix since they’re a tad more diversified. That being said if you want pure play memory upside like $SNDK then SK Hynix is best
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看好MRVL因绑定MSFT ASIC及光子学，但个人因放量推迟暂不持仓。
完全同意。我确实看好 $MRVL。他们与 $MSFT 的专用集成电路(ASIC) 放量紧密绑定，并且正如你提到的，在 Celestial 之后涉足光子学等许多热门领域。去年有报道称 Maia 200 推迟了约 6 个月。我目前并未持有 $MRVL，因为我个人正在等待 H2（这只是我个人的看法），因为财务放量要等到今年晚些时候才进入 2027 年。
英文原文
Absolutely. I do like $MRVL. They're especially tethered to $MSFT ASIC ramp and seem to be touching upon a lot of hot areas like photonics like you mentioned after Celestial. There were reports last year that Maia 200 was pushed back by about 6 months. I don't have $MRVL right now, since I'm personally waiting for H2 (thats just me), since financial ramp starts later this year into 2027.
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AXTI因InP供应链瓶颈逻辑6周涨60%，成AI光子学关键瓶颈标的。
自我发布关于 $AXTI 的初始帖子以来，已经过去了6周。 它的股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没有人在这上面讨论这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止了其竞争对手的前体材料 - 7N级磷化铟(InP)价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland筹集了1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟(InP)供应链。 这6周里，我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将增长最快。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前，重要的是建立你自己的信念。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
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It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post. It’s now up another 60%. Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X. Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics. And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars. Since then: - China export control banned precursors to their competitors - 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week - They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity - $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply - Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex - Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US. It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards. Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade. But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.
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NBIS等公司持有的GPU资产升值，构成重大投资利好。
@jng500 有趣的是，现在连关于GPU折旧的争论都不存在了。 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 持有的GPU实际上像投资品一样升值了…… 上个月H100价格上涨29%以上，A100价格上涨23%以上。 这是一个极其巨大的顺风利好。 https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
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@jng500 It's funny how it wasn't even GPU depreciation arguments anymore. The GPUs $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN are sitting on have actually gone up in price like an investment... H100s went up 29%+ and A100% went up 23%+ last month. This is an incredible, incredible tailwind. https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
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认为比特币防御性最强，ETOR因高现金储备次之。
@spaghhettimon 是的，比特币(Bitcoin)在那里面可能是防御性最强的。也许是 $ETOR 排第二，因为他们拥有高得离谱的现金储备。
英文原文
@spaghhettimon Yeah Bitcoin is probably the safest up there defensibly. Maybe $ETOR second because of their stupidly high cash balance.
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加密资产大幅回调后机构正在买入，建议等待波动结束并顺势反弹。
我一直参与内存/AI交易，比如 $MU、$SNDK。但像这样的机会并不常见。 所有加密货币相关标的都已重置： 比特币 - 从 $125k 跌至 $70K 以太坊 - 从 $4k 跌至 $2.05K Solana - 从 $233 跌至 $88 $COIN 从 $415 跌至 $162 $CRCL 从 $240 跌至 $56 $GLXY 从 $40 跌至 $19 $ETOR 从 $68 跌至 $26 $MSTR 从 $434 跌至 $132 如果人们认为比特币会回到 $30K，我不知道该说什么。我亲眼看到的每家机构在清算清洗后都在现在买入。 等待波动性过去并顺势反弹很容易。
英文原文
I've been in the memory/AI trade like $MU, $SNDK. But opportunities like this don't come often. Every crypto name has been reset: Bitcoin - $70K from $125k Ethereum - $2.05K from $4k Solana - $88 from $233 $COIN $162 from $415 $CRCL $56 from $240 $GLXY $19 from $40 $ETOR $26 from $68 $MSTR $132 from $434 If people think Bitcoin is going back to $30K idk what to tell you, every institution I've seen personally is buying now after the liquidation wipeout. Easy to wait out volatility and ride the wave back up.
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eToro 估值极低且现金充裕，业务高速增长，严重被低估。
$ETOR 目前绝对是纳斯达克被低估的公司之一。感觉市场已经把它遗忘了。市值 21 亿美元，净现金 12 亿美元，无债务。这意味着经纪业务估值仅为 9 亿美元。远期企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA) 约为 2.6 倍……而大多数同行估值在 10-15 倍以上。凭借现有的 12 亿美元现金储备，几年内 eToro 的现金将超过其市值。第三季度 (Q3) 单季净收入为 5700 万美元。若以此增速推算……仅需 3.9 年。沃尔玛目前的市盈率 (P/E) 高达 45 倍。更不用说 $ETOR 还在增长（例如资产管理规模 (AUM) 同比增长 76%+）。
英文原文
$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ at this point. Feels like markets just forgot about it. $2.1B MC. Net cash $1.2B, no debt. So you're valuing the brokerage at $900m. Forward EV/EBITDA: ~2.6x... Most are valued at 10-15x+. In a couple years, Etoro will have more cash than their marketcap with their existing $1.2B cash pile. Net income per quarter (Q3) was $57 million. If you use that number growing forward... 3.9 years. Walmart is valued at 45 P/E now. Not to mention $ETOR is growing too. (eg. AUM 76%+ Y/Y).
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质疑$VSH高税率下的利润率转化，并提及Optimus供应链新动态。
我今天刚查了他们的财报，有效税率高达82%……应税收入560万美元，但税费支出却达460万美元。不过这可能是一次性的，因为他们在某些司法管辖区无法抵扣资本支出(capex)，而在其他地区却支付了极高的税费。所以我不太认为极端的需求已经转化为$VSH的利润率。我可能会去查查该领域的其他公司，看看它们的状况是否更好。另外，关于中国Optimus机器人供应链的新消息也出来了，所以原引用TLDR中的大规模生产数字可能已经发生了变化。
英文原文
I just looked up their earnings today, 82% effective tax rate... $5.6M in taxable income, but $4.6M tax expense. But maybe one-off bc they couldn't offset capex in some jurisdictions, while paying extremely high tax in others apparently. So don't quite think extreme demand translated into margins with $VSH. I'll probably look up some other companies in that area to see if they're faring better. Also new news came out regarding Optimus robotics supply chains from China so those mass production numbers in the original quote TLDR might hv changed.
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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博主在$17建仓$GLXY，明确仅作波段交易而非长期持有。
@DigestingX 我在财报发布前没有持有 $GLXY 的头寸，但现在我在 $17 的价格建仓了。我只是在做波段交易，对我来说这不是长期持有的标的。
英文原文
@DigestingX I didn't have $GLXY positions before earnings, but I do now at $17. I've been just swing trading it, not a hold for me.
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分析$VPG在Optimus供应链中的护城河及被中国供应商替代的风险。
这只是文章的直接引用，我尚未进行深入分析。文中提到了“数百家中国供应商”，因此其他潜在威胁可能包括柯力传感、汉威电子、东华等。 关于 $VPG，我同意，考虑到他们在箔技术方面的护城河，我认为他们被要求提供高端 Optimus 版本。我目前仍持有仓位。 话虽如此，发布风险披露总是好的，以便人们自行研究，因为他们被设计剔除（design out）的可能性并非为零。毕竟 Elon 的目标是 $20K 的 Optimus 实现量产。
英文原文
So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc. Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions. That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all
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确认$VPG与Optimus关联及机构长期看好逻辑
@kacper_kalinski 是的，抱歉，我应该补充说“极有可能”。$VPG 与 Optimus 的关联是由 Citron 发现的。最近我也通过几份提及因 Optimus 而长期看好 $VPG 的机构报告/通讯进行了交叉验证。https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
英文原文
@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely. $VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
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澄清AVGO与MRVL因ASIC收入确认时点被误读，看好当前买入机会。
$AVGO 因 ASIC（专用集成电路）积压订单被抛售，但市场误解了其收入确认时点。$MRVL 的逻辑稍显合理，因为据报道微软的 Maia ASIC 延迟了 6 个月，因此收入确认可能会推迟。显然，如果你现在买入并持有一年，就不需要择时，但我在这里也喜欢这两只股票。
英文原文
$AVGO got sold off bc of their ASIC backlog but markets misunderstood how recognition timing works. $MRVL makes a tiny bit more sense bc of Microsoft reportedly had a 6M delay with their Maia asics so revenue recognition might be delayed. Obviously don’t need to time the market if you buy now and just wait a year but I like them both here too
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Google和Meta用自有现金流投入AI基建，优于短期回购，长期价值更高。
对于那些担心 $GOOGL 和 $META “AI资本支出(AI Capex)”的人。Google使用其自有经营现金流($1800亿)为TPU、GCP和数据中心的数据中心建设提供资金是积极的。他们在2025年产生了约$1650亿的现金流。看看 $PYPL 发生了什么，当你只关注通过回购带来的短期股价时。Paypal字面上又发行了$60亿的回购，而股价下跌了20%。像 $META 这样在万亿美元估值下加速收入的基础设施支出是非常值得的。$META 字面上指引了30%+的同比增长。$GOOGL 指引GCP 48%的同比增长，Gemini用户数量飙升（他们去年的主要威胁是ChatGPT）。为未来的投资回报率(ROE)花钱比短期增加股价带来更大的价值。
英文原文
For all the people worrying about "AI Capex" spend with $GOOGL and $META. Google using their OWN operating cash flow ($180B) to fund the AI buildout for TPUs, GCP, and DCs is positive. They generated ~$165B in 2025. Just look at what happened to $PYPL, when you only about short-term share price with buybacks. Paypal literally issued another $6B buyback and the share price is down 20%. Infrastructure spend to accelerate revenue like $META at trillion dollar valuations is incredibly worth. $META literally guided 30%+ Y/Y growth. $GOOGL guided GCP 48% Y/Y growth and Gemini user numbers skyrocketed (their main threat was ChatGPT last year). Spending money for future return on equity delivers much more value than short-term increases on share prices.
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AXTI是光子学扩产隐性受益者，若引入强人管理将更看好。
@MrThomG_ 如果 Martin Shkreli 加入董事会，展示在拥有垄断地位时该如何操作，我会对 $AXTI 更看好。不过，AXT 确实是光子学(CPO)扩产的一个隐性受益者。
英文原文
@MrThomG_ I would be more bullish on $AXTI if Martin Shkreli joined the board to show em how it's done when you have a monopoly. But yeah AXT is a hidden beneficiary on photonics ramp.
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确认LITE和COHR为相关趋势的主要受益标的。
@stefano_kerope 没错，$LITE 和 $COHR 是此趋势的主要受益者。https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
英文原文
@stefano_kerope True, $LITE and $COHR are large beneficiaries from this. https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
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SNAP因高额SBC和债务问题破坏估值模型，回购被视为危险信号。
我将 $SNAP 的 GCP 运营支出削减和内存货币化纳入自由现金流(FCF)模型，结合与 Perplexity 的交易，其未来看起来被低估。但向“人才”和高管发行数十亿美元的股票薪酬(SBC) -> 进一步增加债务（尤其是那5亿美元回购）-> 支付额外的债务利息，彻底破坏了该模型。这一切取决于 Evan 是否能显著降低 SBC。但在我看来，那5亿美元的回购是一个危险信号，而非利好。
英文原文
I modeled $SNAP GCP opex cuts and memory monetization into FCF and it looked undervalued moving forward with the Perplexity deal. But issuing billions in SBC to "Talent" and executives -> going into further debt (especially the $500M buyback) -> paying additional debt interest blows that model apart. This is all in the hands of Evan to make that change if he lowers SBC notably. But the $500M buyback is a red flag to me instead of a positive thing to me.
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SNAP借债回购掩盖高额股权激励，实质是财富转移，建议回避。
$SNAP 刚刚发布财报并宣布5亿美元股票回购计划。 回购是一个危险信号。 Q4 报告： - 营收：17.16亿美元（+10%） - 自由现金流(FCF)：2.06亿美元（+13%） - 净利润：4500万美元 - 毛利率：59% $SNAP 确认了2.572亿美元的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)，年末SBC总额达10.17亿美元。 如果 $SNAP 用现金而非股票支付员工/高管薪酬，其季度“自由现金流”实际上将是-5100万美元。 你看到的是30亿美元的资产负债表，但他们净现金为-4.9亿美元，因为他们正借入35亿美元以上的长期债务来进行回购。 这与 $META 或 $NVDA 利用资产负债表多余资本进行的回购不同。 这是为了抵消授予高管和“人才”的股票期权。 他们为债务支付的市场利率为6.875%。 仅用于“回购”的债务利息现在每季度超过3000万美元，即每年1.2亿美元以上。 财报看起来很棒，但股票薪酬造成的视觉错觉让现实显得糟糕透顶。 我个人不会投资维多利亚的秘密模特的私人存钱罐。
英文原文
$SNAP Just reported earnings and issued a $500M share buyback. The buyback is a red flag. Q4 Report: - Revenue: $1.716 Billion (+10%) - FCF: $206M (+13%) - Net Income: $45M - Gross Margins: 59% $SNAP recognized $257.2 million in STOCK BASED COMPENSATION, ending the year with $1.017 billion in SBC. If $SNAP paid employees/executives in cash instead of stock, If their "Free Cash Flow" for the quarter would actually be -$51M. You see a $3B balance sheet, but they are net cash -$490 Million, because they are going into $3.5B+ in long term debt to do buybacks. These are not $META or $NVDA buybacks because of excess capital from their balance sheet. It's to offset any stock grants going to their executives and "Talent". They are paying market rates of (6.875%) for their debt. That debt interest is now over $30M+ a quarter, so $120m+ a year just for "buybacks". Earnings look great, but the stock compensation optical illusion makes the reality look horrendous. I would personally not invest in a Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank.
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看好SNDK高增长潜力，认为其估值低且具历史重演性。
在我看来，估值最低的是SK海力士，增长最快的是$SNDK，最安全的是$MU和三星。 我是$SNDK的忠实粉丝。其固态硬盘(SSD)及后续的混合总线闪存(HBF)让我想起了最初的建设阶段，当时大家都在争相堆叠英伟达GPU。 这种感觉就像既视感(dejavu)。其增长轨迹可能是所有存储股中最高的，我认为他们2026年的远期市盈率(double digit forward p/e)是个位数，但到2027年会降至6.5左右。 财报发布后，其股价创下了历史新低。
英文原文
Imo most undervalued = SK Hynix, fastest growth = $SNDK, safest = $MU, Samsung Big fan of $SNDK. Ssds and later hbf reminds me of initial buildout where everyone was fighting to stack Nvidia GPUs. This feels like dejavu. Growth trajectory is probably the highest out of any memory play, think they’re double digit forward p/e in 2026 but goes down to like 6.5 or so in 2027. It’s cheaper than ever post earnings.
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SK海力士远期PE仅4.5倍，认为估值未被充分定价。
@ChiefLiquidity 下一个海力士(Hynix)...就是SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 考虑到2026年的远期市盈率(P/E)预计约为4.5倍，我认为市场尚未完全反映这一预期。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity The next Hynix.. is SK Hynix. I don’t quite think it’s been priced in yet considering forward p/e for 2026 is projected to be ~4.5.
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建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
英文原文
Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.