2026-02-10 · 个股论点

AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。

涉及标的： $AXTI $COHR $GOOGL $LITE $META $MU $SNDK

中文翻译

$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。这是价格上涨的衍生反映。有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。

英文原文

$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.

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