2026-02-10 · 个股论点

基于排除法看好$NBIS财报，预计其多业务线高增长，建议财报期间持有。

涉及标的： $IREN $NBIS

中文翻译

在看到 $IREN 财报未披露新的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)交易后，又看到超大规模客户的资本支出(capex)呈指数级增长： -> 通过排除法，$NBIS 在财报中“有所准备”的可能性越来越大。过去几周的几个简版(TLDR)利好因素： - 旧款GPU价格大幅上涨（见前文）。有利于资产负债表 - GPU供应断崖式下跌（需求激增） - 超大规模客户资本支出激增（很大一部分被归因于数据中心DCs） - $NBIS 本季度可能已通过2500万股的按需发行(ATM)计划，希望稀释的尽头已现。 - Clickhouse以150亿美元估值融资（接近母公司估值） - “Uber不再自主研发Robotaxi”，转而依赖Avride（Nebius子公司）等合作伙伴前景看好。随着股价重置至92美元，如果Nebius仍有望在年底实现70-90亿美元ARR（同比增长700%+），财报期间应持有多头仓位。当然，我预计大部分增长将在2026年下半年至明年一季度发生，届时50亿美元的建设资本支出将转化为80亿美元的中位营收+自由现金流(FCF)。持有 $NBIS 基本上等于持有5家公司，每家都保持三位数同比增长，等待估值反映分部加总(Sum of Parts)+增长。

英文原文

After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals. And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing: -> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination. Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks: - Older GPUs have massively increased in price (see previous). Better for balance sheet - GPU availability dropped off the roof (increased demand) - Hyperscaler capex spend blowout (a large portion was cited for DCs) - $NBIS likely went through the 25M share ATM this quarter so hopefully the end of dilution is in sight. - Clickhouse raising at $15B valuation (getting close to main company valuation) - “Uber is not returning to developing its own robotaxis” and relying on partners like Avride (Nebius subsidiary) Things are looking good. With the price reset to $92, if Nebius is still on track for $7-9B ARR EOY (700%+ y/y), should be a positive hold through earnings. Of course I expect most of the ramp to happen H2 2026 to Q1 next year as the $5B in buildout capex spend converts to recognized $8B midpoint revenue + FCF. With $NBIS, you’re basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y and waiting for valuation to reflect Sum of Parts + growth.

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