· 个股论点
在财报发布后，我开始感觉 $HOOD 的牛市周期已经结束。 我不认为它会崩盘，但可能会在一段时间内保持区间震荡。 看到营收同比增速放缓至 27%，而在 800 亿美元市值下，远期 35 倍市盈率 (P/E) 的估值可能会膨胀至 45-50 倍以上。 这种增长部分是通过收购（例如收购 Bitstamp）买来的，而不是像过去那样通过新功能变现实现的。 长期来看它仍有潜力，但短期面临太多逆风。 唯一的慰藉是加密市场正在复苏。 或者 - 尽快进行国际股票扩张（$IBKR 正在大量吸纳资金流，因为投资者希望配置日本或韩国等其他国家的市场） - 在其新区块链上推出代币，以便像 BNB 和币安那样增加资产负债表规模。 以及其他一些想法等。 我不认为依赖预测市场 (prediction markets) 是正确的选择。为了短期利益这样做，形象 (optics) 肯定很差。
Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings. I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile. Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC. That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past. Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds. The saving grace is crypto market recovering. Or - International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea) - Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance. With some other ideas, etc. Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.