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台湾不会主动伤自己
@miraclemaster07 不，我不认为中国会是台湾的问题。 因为美国会在军事上保卫台湾，而且也没人想跟特朗普陷入潜在的核冲突。 我们的目标应该是搞清楚这些上游供应链，而不是把自己绕进去。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 No, I don't see China as an issue with Taiwan. Since US would defend Taiwan militarily, and nobody wants to get into a potential nuclear conflict with Trump. Our whole semi supply chains end up in Taiwan, the US won't just hand that over lol.
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SIVE 下一站像 LITE
谢谢，我之前确实说过 $SIVE 看起来像下一个 $LITE！ 去年我因为 Google TPU 看好 Lumentum，而市场通常会更喜欢 Google 生态而不是 Amazon 生态。 但如果 Apple 在 CPO 上放量，市场会重新认识这整条线。
英文原文
Thanks, I did say $SIVE looked like the next $LITE! I went long on Lumentum last year because of the Google TPU and markets tend to like Google's ecosystem a bit more than $AMZN or $MSFT. Of course, a lot can happen in the next 2 years so this is speculative but likely supply chain mapping, we'll find out what happens.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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上涨时更应坚持
@amandaong23 对，我觉得美国前一阵刚经历过一次小崩盘。 我一直都认为，如果一只股票在那种调整期还能上涨，那它在后面正面宏观环境里大概率会涨得更多。
英文原文
@amandaong23 We literally just had a mini crash two weeks ago. I’ve always maintained that if a stock is up during that correction period, it will probably be up a ton more during a friendlier macro climate.
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不想做跟单秀
@itsakek 我不是 Enplas 或 Win Semi 那类第一时间就有仓位的人，所以不会发那种“你听到了吗，匿名网友？”的帖子。 如果我的 thesis 本身是独特的，比如 $RPI 或 $AXTI，那我就会去表达胜利感。
英文原文
@itsakek I’m not first to Enplas or stuff like Win Semi, so not going to do a did you listen anon? Type post. If my thesis is originally unique like $RPI or $AXTI I’m going to victory lap a lot on the way up.
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自己做模型
@0xkyle__ 哈哈，喜欢这种 vibe coded 的东西。 但它漏掉了一些细微差别，比如我在今年晚些时候是以 $148 买入 $RDDT，所以 YTD 表现可能并不能反映我实际进场的时间。
英文原文
@0xkyle__ LOL, love vibe coded stuff like this. But it’s missing some nuance like I was $RDDT at $148 later in the year, so YTD performance might not capture time I went long.
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原始 thesis 帖的反讽
还有件事挺好笑的： “如果你把 1 万美元投进 ____，今天会变成 ____！” 结果那些全都是我最早发 thesis 帖的股票，从 $AXTI 到 $IQE。 再等 6 个月，你大概又会在 $SIVE 和我其他关于卡点的 thesis 帖里看到同样的情况。
英文原文
It’s still funny that there’s so many: “If you invested $10K into ____ you would have ____ today!” Then they’re all the stocks I was the original thesis poster on from $AXTI to $IQE. Wait 6 months and you’ll probably see the same thing with $SIVE and my other bottleneck thesis posts.
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自建模型和数据管线
@PacificPal00 我最后还是自己搭了自定义模型和数据管线。 Frontier 模型半数时间都很烂，爱胡编，除非你做的是更基础的事。
英文原文
@PacificPal00 I ended up just building my own custom model and data pipelines. The frontier models suck and hallucinate half the time unless you’re doing something more basic
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这是基于已确认协议的映射
@crux_capital_ 这就是基于已确认协议做的供应链映射。 $GOOGL 不会在新闻稿里突然跑出来说它的上游基板供应商是 $AXTI。 我在上面的说法里会用“很可能”这样的词，哪怕对第一轮量产周期来说几乎已经是板上钉钉。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping off confirmed agreements. $GOOGL won’t go out and randomly say in a press releases their upstream substrate provider is $AXTI. I use words like likely in my statements above even though it’s near certain for the first production cycles
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认证周期不能短线拆解
@crux_capital_ 如果你觉得能在很短时间内把 $POET 从 Celestial 2028 的量产爬坡里设计掉，那你就是没理解认证周期。 $SIVE 和 $POET 也是一样，但我预计这些关系大多会随着时间变成多来源结构。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ That’s misunderstanding qualification cycles if you think they can design out $POET in a short timeframe for celestial 2028 volume ramp. Same with $SIVE and $POET but I expect most relationships to be multi source over time
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就是供应链映射
@crux_capital_ 这是供应链映射。 https://t.co/loBcX9iRNp
英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping https://t.co/loBcX9iRNp
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SIVE 仍然非常早期
@FamineRE $SIVE 现在还非常早期，如果一切条件都对齐，再看管理层有多激进，我觉得两年内有很清晰的 100 亿美元以上路径。
英文原文
@FamineRE $SIVE is extremely early and I see a clear path to $10B+ in 2 years if the stars align + depending how ambitious management is
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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13.5M 融资降低稀释担忧
对，$SIVE 刚从欧洲养老基金和西方机构那里融资了 1350 万美元，换来 2.5% 的股份。 然后 Win Semi 又把量产去风险了。最近这次融资也进一步缓解了稀释和资产负债表的担忧。 现在就是等规模起来。 主要担心还是激光的多来源，而不是资产负债表或执行问题。
英文原文
Yeah? $SIVE just raised $13.5M from European pension funds and Western institutions for 2.5%. Then Win Semi derisked volume. Recent fundraiser derisked more dilution fears/balance sheet fears. It’s just waiting for scale now. Main concern is laser multi-sourcing, not balance sheet/execution.
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市场更爱确证型证据
@Gubloinvestor 我的意思是，谁都可以通过 AlChip、Marvell 之类把它映射到 Amazon，或者映射到 Microsoft，对吧？ 但市场有时候更喜欢一些更具体的“证据”，比如来自 $AMZN 的 photonic fabric 采购协议，而它又能映射回 $SIVE。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor I mean anyone can just map it to Amazon through AlChip, Marvell, etc? Or Microsoft? But sometimes markets like more concrete“proof” like photonic fabric purchase agreements from $AMZN that maps to $SIVE
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JBL LRO 的收入模型
我做了一些 $JBL LRO 放量的建模。 按我的个人估算，它会给 Sivers 带来： ~1.2 亿美元 2027 ~2.8 亿美元 2028 ~4.8 亿美元 2029 这对 Sivers 来说是 ARR 级别的收入，考虑到它的市值，已经极其重要了，而且还只算了这个客户本身，不包括 Marvell、Ayar 和其他未确认买家。 我个人当时觉得今天值 20 亿美元以上是合理的，我们看看后面会怎样。
英文原文
I did some modeling of $JBL LRO scale up. And from personal est. it brings in: ~$120M 2027 ~$280M 2028. ~$480M 2029 For ARR to Sivers, which is extremely significant given Sivers MC, from that customer alone. Not including Marvell, Ayar, and other unidentified buyers. I thought $2B+ today was reasonable personally, we’ll see what happens.
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Amazon 的 warrant 协议会带来放量
@PhotonCap 基本上每次 $AMZN 有像 $ALAB 2024、$AAOI 2026 这种 warrant 协议时，量产订单都会起飞。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Basically every time $AMZN has these warrant agreements like $ALAB 2024, $AAOI 2026, volume orders go brrr
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SIVE 的终端用户是谁
以防你还在想 $SIVE 的终端用户到底是谁： Sivers 激光 -> $AMZN（Marvell 的 8-K SEC 文件里有） Amazon 和 Celestial 之间有 “photonic fabric” 的采购协议，而这条链通过两跳关系映射到 Sivers 激光。 协议里 Marvell 的股份价值按 87 美元/股算，所以 Amazon 有很强的动力尽可能多买（Marvell 现在股价已经 139 美元以上了）。 这些量产订单对 $SIVE 最有帮助，因为他们体量小。 我只是想指出这一条关系。 但在 7.2 亿美元市值下…… 市场显然漏掉了 Sivers 作为未来超大规模云光学超级周期里关键激光供应商的角色。
英文原文
Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were: Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings). Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections. Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+). These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size. This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out. But at $720m MC... Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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刚才是把 HPS.A 说成 HPS.A 的笔误。
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 对，$HPS.A 我刚才打错了，平时在 X 上说太多，抱歉。
英文原文
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 yeah $HPS.A typo, i talk a lot on X mb
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EWY 也是存储敞口
@ArkhamInvests 我个人还在持有 2028 年的 $EWY 看涨期权，用来拿存储敞口。 这些仓位已经涨了三位数，因为我预计三星 / SK 海力士会继续强势印钞。 $DRAM 也是一个不错的敞口工具。
英文原文
@ArkhamInvests I'm still personally long 2028 leaps on $EWY for memory exposure. Those are up over triple digits, since I expect Samsung/Sk Hynix to be printing. $DRAM was another good vehicle for exposure.
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说 TSEM 这轮已明显计入估值，持有更稳。
@NftSpaceman $TSEM 这轮在一个月翻倍后，已经有点把预期打进去了。我个人会继续拿着，但如果你是新开仓： 我最近已经覆盖了很多光学名字，比如 enplas / pcl / fittech，你往前翻一点就能看到。
英文原文
@NftSpaceman $TSEM is a bit more priced in right now after doubling in a month. I'd personally hold it, but if you're entering new positions: I covered a lot of optical names recently like enplas/pcl/fittech if you scroll back a little.
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台湾的封装与电网瓶颈
@aiizisw77940 我发了很多新的名字，比如台湾的 Shunsin，用来做光学组装 / 封装。 然后 $HSP.A 作为数据中心变压器瓶颈，未来一年大概率也会兑现（因为这类瓶颈是多年的）。
英文原文
@aiizisw77940 I posted a lot of new ones like Shunsin for optical assembly/packaging in Taiwan. Then $HSP.A for DC transformers bottleneck will likely play out over the next year (since they have a multi-year bottleneck).
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台湾/韩国/Foundry 受益面概览
简单给你个 TLDR，帮你省时间： 1. $ASML、$TSM 财报 = 前景不错。半导体 + capex 起飞。 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic 起飞。软件股就很惨。 3. 三星起飞，部分原因是 $TSLA 的 AI 芯片。 4. $UMC = 代工涨价。foundry 起飞。 5. 训练在中国起飞。H100 租赁价格上升，neocloud 也开心。 6. 氦气短缺 = 影响不大……我之前已经说过很多次了，但我不确定 $TSM 还要再说多少遍。 7. MLCC、电感价格 = 涨价。受益者我后面再展开。 8. “台湾的 OSAT 扩张可能会收紧全球测试产能并推高成本” 我最近做多了像 Shunsin（6451）这样的台湾 OSAT，有原因的。需求会继续跑赢供给，即使扩产也是一样。（cowos、sip、光学）
英文原文
Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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今天状态不太好
@Yolo365247isme 我只能说，今天没那么顺。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme Let's just say I've had better days
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问候一下
@GunStonks 替我跟那个人说声嗨。
英文原文
@GunStonks tell the guy i said hi
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HOOD 金卡挺好看
哇，$HOOD 的金卡还挺好看。 做多 Robinhood？ https://t.co/Sth8jBHnG9
英文原文
Woah, the $HOOD gold card is sexy. Long Robinhood? https://t.co/Sth8jBHnG9
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复利跑赢一切
@labubu_trader 我的意思是，如果你还能每周复利 43%，那你很快就会超过我，哈哈。
英文原文
@labubu_trader I mean if you keep compounding at 43% a week, you'll overtake me in no time lol
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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认为它至少会慢慢回到 40 美元。
@realstockfox 我觉得它至少会随着时间回到 40 美元左右吧？我们等等看。
英文原文
@realstockfox I think it at least recovers to $40 over time? We’ll see