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AI 时代的卖铲子
@Ud197601 这就是 AI 时代的现代淘金热。我只是把铲子和地点都告诉大家。
英文原文
@Ud197601 This is the modern day gold rush for AI. I'm just giving everyone the shovels and location.
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原始来源在这
@itsakek 原始来源在这！不过我还是觉得市场还没有把 $GFS + $SIVE 这两个加起来看明白。 https://t.co/llafVFO46B
英文原文
@itsakek Original source was here! But still don't think markets put 1+1 together with $GFS + $SIVE yet. https://t.co/llafVFO46B
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GFS 首次直接确认 SIVE
$GFS 是不是第一次直接确认了 $SIVE…… 作为他们 CPO / 光子生态的激光供应商？ 这次是明确的激光架构纳入，而不是之前和 Ayar / Celestial 那种供应链映射。 你还能从这里看到一些其他主要玩家： - $FN / $ASX 负责组装 - $LITE / $SIVE 负责激光 - $ATEYY / $KEYS 负责测试。 目前还没有基于文字的新闻，因为这来自 $GFS 2026 年 3 月的网络研讨会图像式演示。 但在 $LITE 旁边那份很小的激光供应商名单里，竟然有一家市值不到 10 亿美元的公司…… 这确实很特别，对吧？
英文原文
Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE... As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem? This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial. You get a hint of the other major players here: - $FN / $ASX for assembly - $LITE / $SIVE for lasers - $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing. There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation. But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE... Quite special right?
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LPKF 我也有仓位
@babyfolio 正如其他评论猜的那样，我确实也持有 LPKF Laser，所以我们看看它接下来表现如何。
英文原文
@babyfolio As the other comments guessed, I do own LPKF Laser so we'll see how it does.
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别说我没持有 GLW
@M1nEe07 这也太蠢了，我甚至都不持有 $GLW。难道我就不能发布公开信息整合吗。
英文原文
@M1nEe07 This is just stupid, I don't even own $GLW. Can I just post public information synthesis.
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SHMD 先把融资整理好
@Alin38 我个人不太喜欢 $SHMD 的稀释悬压。要是他们把融资理顺，我觉得它还是有潜力的。
英文原文
@Alin38 I personally wasn't a fan of dilution overhang with $SHMD. If they clean up financing, I think it has potential.
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简短回复，无实质内容
也许吧
英文原文
@ThatIsIt11 perhaps
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GLW 在玻璃基板上领跑
Digitimes：$GLW 领先 KCC 和 LX Glass 的玻璃核心基板业务。 “玻璃核心基板……是下一代先进半导体封装的关键。” 除了其结构性重要性之外，玻璃核心封装的商业化时间线似乎也在加速。我们已经接近 H2，2027 年大概就是拐点。 我在上游玻璃核心名字里确实有仓位，不过最近的新闻也确认了它的重要性。
英文原文
Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass "Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging". On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point. I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.
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半导体这波太夸张
哇，如果你在那段伊朗波动里拿住了，从 $INTC 到 $MRVL，很多半导体名字都经历了改变人生级别的上涨。 很少有 1000 亿美元以上的大盘股能在一个月里涨 50% 到 70%。 你拿住了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
英文原文
Wow this was like a life-changing rally for many in semis from $INTC to $MRVL if you held through Iran volatility. Not often do large caps $100B+ move 50-70% in 1 month time. Did you hold anon? https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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SOI 跑赢了很多
@artazc44161 对，$SOI 自从我发 thesis 帖之后已经涨了 140%+。 这就是抢跑机构，Serenity 的打法。
英文原文
@artazc44161 Yeah $SOI is up 140%+ since my thesis post. This is what you call, frontrunning instituions with Serenity.
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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ASTS 也能做短线
@soulbiri1 这很公平！我也喜欢顺手做一点 $ASTS 的波段交易。但这次看起来比别人说的前几次下跌都更有料一些。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 That's fair! I enjoy swing trading $ASTS on the side. But this seemed more material than previous drops than what others were claiming.
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RKLB 和 SpaceX 的数据
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB 大概是 2023 年 87 天，SpaceX 的 Falcon 9 大概是 176 天。就是一些历史数据，粗估在 4 到 7 百万之间。
英文原文
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB was ~87 days 2023, SpaceX falcon9 was ~176 days. Just historical data from issues, rough guess between 4-7M.
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Blue Origin发射失败导致积压，连锁延迟影响ASTS等公司未来收益增长，非无关紧要。
太空板块的$ASTS看起来正玩得开心。尽管Blue Origin遭遇了重大失败，X平台上却莫名乐观...(这对SpaceX来说是利好，顺便也利好$RKLB。)至于$ASTS，当他们的卫星还没上天时，确实会影响未来的收入确认。Blue Origin的发射大概会推迟好几个月，可能影响~400-700万美元？如果一家主要以未来增长定价的公司被推迟了，那问题就不只是一颗卫星，而是后续的一系列卫星也会跟着延后...这对未来收益增长的影响很大(因为看起来他们没能达到45颗的目标)。经过数月的调查，Blue Origin可能会被$AMZN亚马逊的Kuiper项目和国防部的有效载荷积压住。看来他们处于非常不利的境地，不得不依赖竞争对手SpaceX。这绝非一些人用那些弯弯扭扭的线图所声称的"无关紧要"，但我也不评价这是否是买入机会。
英文原文
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun. Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.) As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space. Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M? If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed. Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets) After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too. Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX. Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
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SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
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中美AI竞赛驱动半导体供应链全面增长，台积电、ASML数据验证繁荣。
不，继续全速前进。美国和中国两个国家正在竞速，看谁能先在递归自我改进中实现技术奇点。$TSM的财报显示大幅增长，供应链几乎未受干扰（如氦气）。$ASML显示创纪录的资本支出。OpenAI融资超过1200亿美元，因此蔓延恐慌至少还能再持续一年半。像Mythos这样的模型正以惊人的速度不断改进，从中国到美国，所有人都在抢购所有GPU来训练新模型并追赶。每个人都在抢购材料，供应链中那些以前很少使用的零件现在都有了来自AI的大幅增长机会。
英文原文
Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.
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AAOI 和 AXTI 也走对了
我之前发过 $AAOI 从 30 美元到 65 美元再到 80 美元的看法。现在已经到 150 美元了。 $AXTI 也是一样，如果你三个月前问我，这 5 只名字里每一个都会不一样。AXT 现在也从 12 美元涨到 82 美元。 我是说，市场总会变，名字也会变。
英文原文
I was posting about $AAOI $30 -> $65 -> $80. It's now $150. Same thing with $AXTI, if you asked me three months ago, all 5 names would be different. AXT is now $82 from $12. I see valuations as elevated, but I'm still personally holding. I really think they're all compelling long term, I'm just talking about shorter-term entry points.
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TTD/HIMS/RDDT 都有均值回归机会
像 $TTD 在 22 美元这样的价位是有吸引力的，大概还有 40% 到 50% 的上行空间，能回到低 30 美元。 $HIMS 在 28 美元也差不多，我能看到它均值回归到 40 美元。 还有 $RDDT，我在 140 美元附近做多，现在也还可以。
英文原文
Stuff like $TTD at $22 is compelling, probably 40-50% upside back to low 30's.. Same with $HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40. And $RDDT at $163, went long around $140, posted some thesis on the way down to $125, but glad it's recovered a bit. Could probably chop a bit but I do see it recovering to $200+ in better macro.
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上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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批评仅看图表的技术分析谬误，强调基本面比K线更重要。
谢谢，我只是厌倦了人们在图表上画线，或者说'已经涨了200%，所以可能不会再涨了'。这可能是投资领域最大的谬误之一，尤其是欧洲当地人可能很难理解这一点。基本面相、market expansion、revenue acceleration、客户，比图表上的数字重要得多。
英文原文
Thanks, I'm just so tired of people drawing lines on a chart or saying "it's gone up 200%, so it probably can't go up more". This is probably one of the greatest fallacies in investing, especially one European locals might have a hard time understanding. Fundamentals, market expansion, revenue acceleration, customers, are much more important than numbers on a chart.
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量子点太早，先看设备商
@dontbuytops $ALMU 和量子点对于做多的人来说真的太早了，QD laser 也是一样。 如果你想参与 capex / R&D 周期，看看像 $ALRIB 这样的设备供应商会更好。
英文原文
@dontbuytops $ALMU and quantum dot is way way too early for people going long on that and QD laser. If you want to play capex R&D cycles, look at machine suppliers like $ALRIB, $VECO or $AIXA or that level.
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FLY 仍是中期看法
@sachbarnes 是啊，我对 $FLY 的中型运力 thesis 在去年 30 美元时就很看好，很高兴看到它从 20 美元回来了。 我觉得 AI 供应链里还有更有吸引力的机会。
英文原文
@sachbarnes Yeah my $FLY thesis about medium lift was at $30 last year, glad to see it’s recovered from $20. I thought there were more compelling opportunities in the AI supply chains but I’m happy it’s up a lot
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光子学是可扩张性的解法
@dontbuytops 光子学就是解决可扩展性的办法。 如果我们说的是像 EML / DFB 这种光子的大规模生产，那确实有瓶颈。 这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因之一——他们从一开始就不会自己烧太多 capex 去处理这些问题。
英文原文
@dontbuytops Photonics is the solution to scalability. If we’re talking about mass production of photonics like EML/DFB stuff, there’s bottlenecks for sure. Which is why I’m long the entire supply chain from substrates to foundries to osats .
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做多 $ALRIB，看好机构和Apollo会入场收购，散户领先一步
我在 $ALRIB 做多。其他关于 Riber 或光子学板块的看空帖子，我不怎么看重，因为我对自己的投资论点很有信心。 Apollo 明天就能轻松花掉 5 亿美元，眼睛都不眨一下，直接买下为 $MSFT / 超大规模云商量子以及其他量子点项目服务的关键环节。 这就是我说的抢先机构，我非常确信机构会想要持有一定比例的股份，但散户在这个标的上是早期的。
英文原文
I’m long on $ALRIB, I don’t place much value on other bear posts on Riber or photonics names since I’m confident in my own thesis. Apollo can literally blow $500m tomorrow, not bat an eye, and buy the chokepoint for $MSFT / hyperscaler quantum and other Quantum Dot programs. This is what I mean by frontrunning institutions, I’m very confident they will want to own a % but retail is early to the name.
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Point72 才刚开始买 IQE
@marv_jones6 Point72 上周才刚开始买 $IQE。 这对机构来说还处在发现阶段。 之所以感觉像“晚了”，只是因为我很早就发过 thesis 帖。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week. It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %. But no, it’s still early
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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MRVL 和 GOOGL 更关键
@StocksAREnuts 我在 $80 的时候就看好 $MRVL，直到现在也是，主要是因为 $MSFT Maia。 但如果 $GOOGL 成为 2028 年之后有更强收入可见性的客户，那帮助也很大。 它们都还是基于 CPO / AI 光子学那条线。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia. But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.