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博主感叹Gemini让日语学习变简单。
@beauty_oe 没错！多亏了 $GOOGL 的 Gemini，学习日语变得非常简单。
英文原文
@beauty_oe ですよね！$GOOGL のGeminiのおかげで、日本語の勉強がすごく簡単になります。
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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博主在$17建仓$GLXY，明确仅作波段交易而非长期持有。
@DigestingX 我在财报发布前没有持有 $GLXY 的头寸，但现在我在 $17 的价格建仓了。我只是在做波段交易，对我来说这不是长期持有的标的。
英文原文
@DigestingX I didn't have $GLXY positions before earnings, but I do now at $17. I've been just swing trading it, not a hold for me.
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有人全仓做多亚马逊看涨期权，财报后爆仓。
@hopefulmetsfan 我是说有人全仓买入 $AMZN 看涨期权。但在今天亚马逊财报发布后，他们被洗盘了。https://t.co/FKa4U27ZyW
英文原文
@hopefulmetsfan I mean someone else did full port $AMZN calls. But they got wiped out after Amazon earnings today. https://t.co/FKa4U27ZyW
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散户在此次市场崩盘中遭受重创，情况比表面更糟。
@Perugius__ 你读得越多，情况就越糟糕。散户在这次崩盘中真的被洗盘得惨不忍睹。 https://t.co/KksVVxgf8d
英文原文
@Perugius__ It gets even worse the more you read. Retail really got wiped out on this crash. https://t.co/KksVVxgf8d
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Reddit 用户借贷买期权爆仓，警示投资需保持正确视角。
Reddit 上有人借了 8 万美元贷款买入 $PYPL 看涨期权。PayPal 在过去 3 个月暴跌 40%，那些期权现在价值为 $0。该 Redditor 现已负债且失业。故事的寓意是：如果你对自己的投资组合感到沮丧，关键在于视角。
英文原文
Someone on Reddit took out an $80K loan and bought $PYPL calls. PayPal has since crashed 40% in the past 3M and those calls are now worth $0. The Redditor is now in debt with no job. Moral of the story: if you ever feel bad about your portfolio, it’s all about perspective. https://t.co/FkvrOfFGiD
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分析$VPG在Optimus供应链中的护城河及被中国供应商替代的风险。
这只是文章的直接引用，我尚未进行深入分析。文中提到了“数百家中国供应商”，因此其他潜在威胁可能包括柯力传感、汉威电子、东华等。 关于 $VPG，我同意，考虑到他们在箔技术方面的护城河，我认为他们被要求提供高端 Optimus 版本。我目前仍持有仓位。 话虽如此，发布风险披露总是好的，以便人们自行研究，因为他们被设计剔除（design out）的可能性并非为零。毕竟 Elon 的目标是 $20K 的 Optimus 实现量产。
英文原文
So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc. Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions. That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all
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特斯拉Optimus或分中美双供应链，高端用VPG，量产用中国。
情况比这更微妙。根据我的研究，为了实现 $20k Optimus 的廉价大规模生产，特斯拉可能正在设计两种不同的型号。大规模生产的型号可能仅采用中国供应链。然而，面向大众市场的中国传感器尚未完全匹配美国高成本、超专业化的精密传感技术。$VPG 可能被用于高端或高精度的 Optimus 版本，例如特斯拉超级工厂级别/工业级版本。因此，首批数千台特斯拉人形机器人可能会使用 $VPG。这仅仅是关于可能的大规模生产/消费级版本，这些版本很可能为了追求最低成本而交由中国制造商生产。这也发出了中国对美国本土机器人供应链构成威胁的信号。
英文原文
It’s a lot more nuanced than that. From my research, for cheap mass production $20k Optimus, it’s possible Tesla is designing two different models. The mass production models may just be Chinese supply chains. However, the mass-market Chinese sensors haven't quite matched US high cost ultra specialized precision sensing. $VPG may be used for high-end or high precision Optimus versions, like the Tesla giga factory grade/industrial versions. So the first thousands of Tesla humanoids may use $VPG. This was just talking about possible mass production/consumer grade versions that likely went to China manufacturers for the lowest cost possible. This also signals the threat China has on Made in America robotics supply chains.
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特斯拉Optimus量产供应链或在中国，成本大幅降低威胁美国制造。
看起来 $TSLA Optimus 的大规模量产供应链将在中国制造。 - 浙江华正（热管理） - 宁波拓普（执行器） - 埃文（传感器） 本周的一份新报告将这些公司列为潜在供应商。 据报道，由于中国的补贴和低成本制造，Optimus 的成本从超过 10 万美元降至 4.5 万美元以下，“美国制造”的机器人供应链可能受到威胁。
英文原文
It looks like $TSLA Optimus supply chains for mass production will be manufactured in China. - Zhejiang Huazheng (thermal control) - Ningbo TuoFu (actuators) - Everwin (sensors). Were named as likely suppliers from a new report this week. “Made in America” robotics supply chains are likely threatened as China subsidies and low cost manufacturing reportedly brings Optimus costs from over $100K+ down to <$45k.
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市场因对美联储政策感知的恐慌而抛售，但这可能是自4月以来的最大机会。
白银暴跌。比特币暴跌。从 $CRDO 到 $HOOD 的股票都在暴跌。 这恰好发生在与 2021 年相同的时间点，图表看起来基本一样。 价值百万的问题是，这次是一样的吗？ 从结构上讲，是的。 它看起来令人毛骨悚然地相似，市场正在抢跑 2021 年的流动性枯竭。 上一次的触发因素是量化紧缩 (Quantitative Tightening, QT)，在鲍威尔表示美联储将加速“缩减购债 (Tapering)”和 QT 以抑制通胀后。随后他们在 2022 年 1 月以超出任何人想象的速度开始了 QT。 今年，有中期选举。特朗普希望降低利率并增加流动性，以确保 11 月获胜。而且，最重要的是，他非常关心股市。 就在 2025 年 12 月，也就是两个月前，鲍威尔悄悄宣布恢复购买资产，即隐性量化宽松 (stealth QE)。 这一次，这看起来像是表面文章和自证预言。 然而，市场运作基于越南战争的闪回和创伤后应激障碍 (PTSD)，主要鉴于新任美联储主席 (Fed chair) 的样子。 如果新任美联储主席按照特朗普的政策行事（人们可能会预期如此），这可能是自 4 月以来最大的机会之一。 这一次，市场抛售是因为“感知”而非任何正式的政策变化。 历史不会重演，但会押韵。
英文原文
Silver is crashing. Bitcoin is crashing. Stocks from $CRDO to $HOOD are crashing. Happened to be around the same time as 2021 and chart looks basically the same. The million dollar question, is it the same this time? Structurally, yes. It looks eerily similar with markets frontrunning a liquidity drain back in 2021. The trigger last time was Quantitative Tightening after Powell stated the Fed would accelerate "Tapering" and QT for inflation to come down. And then they began QT faster than anyone imagined in Jan 2022. This year, there's Midterms. Trump wants lower rates and higher liquidity to ensure a win in November. And, most of all, he cares deeply about the stock market. And just 2 months ago in December 2025, Powell gave a stealth QE announcement to resume purchasing assets. This time, it looks like optics and a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, the market operates off Vietnam flashbacks and PTSD, mainly given the look of the new Fed chair. If the new Fed chair operates in line with Trump's policies (which one might expect), this could be one of the biggest opportunities since April. This time, markets are selling off because of "perception" rather than any formal policy change. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.
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确认$VPG与Optimus关联及机构长期看好逻辑
@kacper_kalinski 是的，抱歉，我应该补充说“极有可能”。$VPG 与 Optimus 的关联是由 Citron 发现的。最近我也通过几份提及因 Optimus 而长期看好 $VPG 的机构报告/通讯进行了交叉验证。https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
英文原文
@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely. $VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
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比特币作为风险管理工具，及特斯拉垂直整合对VPG的供应链风险。
@Bonek2801 出于风险管理目的。我宁愿在约 7 万美元价位持有 50% 的比特币，也不愿持有现金以降低波动性。此外，$VPG 的下行风险在于 $TSLA 自行制造传感器并实现垂直整合，从而将其排除在供应链之外。$GOOGL 与 $LITE 在光学共封装(CPO)方面的看空逻辑也类似。
英文原文
@Bonek2801 Risk management purposes. I’d rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility. Also the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away. Similar bear case with $GOOGL and OCS with $LITE though.
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批评媒体无视白银保证金上调，归咎政治因素。
@wealthquake 忘了补充媒体对白银的离谱报道。完全无视6次以上的重复保证金上调及比例变更，反而一味归咎于特朗普的美联储主席人选。真是没完没了。
英文原文
@wealthquake Forgot to add the egregious media reporting around silver too. Zero mentions about 6+ repeated margin hikes and changes to percentages. Then just blames Trump’s Fed chair pick. It’s just endless
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澄清AVGO与MRVL因ASIC收入确认时点被误读，看好当前买入机会。
$AVGO 因 ASIC（专用集成电路）积压订单被抛售，但市场误解了其收入确认时点。$MRVL 的逻辑稍显合理，因为据报道微软的 Maia ASIC 延迟了 6 个月，因此收入确认可能会推迟。显然，如果你现在买入并持有一年，就不需要择时，但我在这里也喜欢这两只股票。
英文原文
$AVGO got sold off bc of their ASIC backlog but markets misunderstood how recognition timing works. $MRVL makes a tiny bit more sense bc of Microsoft reportedly had a 6M delay with their Maia asics so revenue recognition might be delayed. Obviously don’t need to time the market if you buy now and just wait a year but I like them both here too
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博主强调某观点并非玩笑，语气强烈。
@LivingITMoney 我甚至不是在开玩笑 https://t.co/knqNyBNHZg
英文原文
@LivingITMoney I’m not even joking https://t.co/knqNyBNHZg
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Google和Meta用自有现金流投入AI基建，优于短期回购，长期价值更高。
对于那些担心 $GOOGL 和 $META “AI资本支出(AI Capex)”的人。Google使用其自有经营现金流($1800亿)为TPU、GCP和数据中心的数据中心建设提供资金是积极的。他们在2025年产生了约$1650亿的现金流。看看 $PYPL 发生了什么，当你只关注通过回购带来的短期股价时。Paypal字面上又发行了$60亿的回购，而股价下跌了20%。像 $META 这样在万亿美元估值下加速收入的基础设施支出是非常值得的。$META 字面上指引了30%+的同比增长。$GOOGL 指引GCP 48%的同比增长，Gemini用户数量飙升（他们去年的主要威胁是ChatGPT）。为未来的投资回报率(ROE)花钱比短期增加股价带来更大的价值。
英文原文
For all the people worrying about "AI Capex" spend with $GOOGL and $META. Google using their OWN operating cash flow ($180B) to fund the AI buildout for TPUs, GCP, and DCs is positive. They generated ~$165B in 2025. Just look at what happened to $PYPL, when you only about short-term share price with buybacks. Paypal literally issued another $6B buyback and the share price is down 20%. Infrastructure spend to accelerate revenue like $META at trillion dollar valuations is incredibly worth. $META literally guided 30%+ Y/Y growth. $GOOGL guided GCP 48% Y/Y growth and Gemini user numbers skyrocketed (their main threat was ChatGPT last year). Spending money for future return on equity delivers much more value than short-term increases on share prices.
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联发科AI收入预测远低于谷歌资本支出，谷歌大幅上调支出聚焦推理成本。
Counterpoint Research 指出，联发科(Mediatek)对2026年云端AI/ASIC(专用集成电路)收入约10亿美元的预测，与 $GOOGL 的资本支出(capex)以及 $AVGO 目前的营收相比，简直是沧海一粟。 但谷歌确实带来了震撼，将其资本支出预测上调了50%以上，并表示将专注于推理(inference)成本。 所以谁知道呢
英文原文
Counterpoint is Mediatek's ~$1B projections for Cloud AI/ASIC revenue for 2026 was a drop in the bucket compared to $GOOGL capex spend and what $AVGO currently brings in. But Google did deliver a shock upping its capex projections by 50%+ and said they would focus on inference costs. So who knows
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谷歌巨额资本支出验证联发科在AI供应链中的地位。
联发科是 $GOOGL TPU 生态系统（TPU v7e 和 v8e）中有趣的一部分。 以及 $NVDA Blackwell（例如 GB10 Grace 设计）。 他们曾在 2025 年做出雄心勃勃的预测，认为其将占据数据中心 ASIC 市场 10-15% 的份额，与 $AVGO 相比。 但鉴于谷歌目前 1750-1850 亿美元的资本支出，看来他们的说法正在得到验证。 披露：无持仓。
英文原文
Mediatek is an interesting part of $GOOGL TPU ecosystem (TPU v7e and v8e). And $NVDA Blackwell (eg. GB10 Grace design). They did make ambitious projections of 10–15% of the DC ASIC market back in 2025 vs. $AVGO. But given Google's $175-185B capex spend today, looks like their claims are getting validated. Disclosure: Have no positions.
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TPU/DC供应链庞大，难点在于识别BOM及相对市值受益最大的公司。
@PhotonCap 是的，TPU/DC（数据中心）的供应链规模巨大，$GLW 以及其他受益于 $META 和 $GOOGL 资本支出的公司都是赢家。主要问题（也是最难的部分）在于识别BOM（物料清单），并找出相对于当前市值而言受益最大的公司。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yes, the supply chain for TPU/DC is massive with $GLW and other beneficiaries from $META and $GOOGL capex. Main thing (hardest part) is identifying BOM and who benefits the most from this relative to current MC.
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AXTI是光子学扩产隐性受益者，若引入强人管理将更看好。
@MrThomG_ 如果 Martin Shkreli 加入董事会，展示在拥有垄断地位时该如何操作，我会对 $AXTI 更看好。不过，AXT 确实是光子学(CPO)扩产的一个隐性受益者。
英文原文
@MrThomG_ I would be more bullish on $AXTI if Martin Shkreli joined the board to show em how it's done when you have a monopoly. But yeah AXT is a hidden beneficiary on photonics ramp.
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确认LITE和COHR为相关趋势的主要受益标的。
@stefano_kerope 没错，$LITE 和 $COHR 是此趋势的主要受益者。https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
英文原文
@stefano_kerope True, $LITE and $COHR are large beneficiaries from this. https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE
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谷歌转向TPU利好相关托管商，NBIS非其受益者。
@lawbrax 这对通过 Fluidstack 与 $GOOGL 相关的托管设施(Colo)公司，如新云(NeoCloud)领域的 $CIFR 和 $WULF 是利好消息。 看起来谷歌主要转向张量处理单元(TPU)了。我认为 $NBIS 并非谷歌的受益者，但他们曾是 $META 的受益者。
英文原文
@lawbrax This is positive for $GOOGL related colo companies through Fluidstack like $CIFR and $WULF in neocloud sector. Looks like Google is primarily shifting to TPUs now. Don't think $NBIS is a beneficiary of Google but they were with $META.
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AI供应链企业欢迎谷歌巨额资本支出增加
@beauty_oe 市场对 $GOOGL 的巨额支出感到厌恶。然而，受益于5000亿美元资本支出(CAPEX)增加的AI供应链企业却对此表示热烈欢迎！
英文原文
@beauty_oe 市場は $GOOGL の巨額支出を嫌気しています。しかし、500億ドルの設備投資（CAPEX）増額の恩恵を受けるAIサプライチェーン企業たちは、これを大歓迎しています！
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谷歌巨额资本支出加速AI基建，利好相关供应链。
$GOOGL 公布了财报，其资本支出(CapEX)规模巨大。 1750亿-1850亿美元 vs. 1200亿美元。 这对AI基础设施建设是利好。 跟随资金流向下游： - $AVGO、联发科、$TSM（设计/晶圆代工） - SK海力士、三星、$MU、$SNDK（存储） - $ANET、$LITE、$COHR、$VRT（网络、光子学、能源） 等等，因为谷歌表示支出主要在于：“包括服务器、数据中心和网络在内的AI基础设施”。 从 $META 到 $GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商正在大幅增加资本支出。 这仅仅表明： AI基础设施建设正在加速，并由全球最盈利的公司资助。 做多AI供应链。
英文原文
$GOOGL reported earnings and their CapEX spend was enormous. $175-$185 Billion vs. $120 Billion. This is bullish for AI buildout. Follow the money flow down to: - $AVGO, Mediatek, $TSM (design / foundry) - Sk hynix, Samsung, $MU, $SNDK (memory) - $ANET, $LITE, $COHR, $VRT (network, photonics, energy) etc. as Google said spend was: "primarily on AI infrastructure including servers, data centers and networking" Hyperscalers from $META to $GOOGL are increasing their capex spend enormously. This just goes to show: AI buildout is accelerating and is funded by the most profitable companies in the world. Long AI supply chains.
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高贝塔股今日大跌，预计中期选举前市场将广泛复苏。
@soulbiri1 是的，今天高贝塔(高Beta)股票的表现极其糟糕。$CRDO、$IREN、$CIFR 等个股遭到重创。 $AMD 下跌 -17%，甚至 $MSFT 在过去两个月也下跌超过 -22%。 我预计随着今年晚些时候中期选举的临近，我们将看到更广泛的复苏。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah today was extremely rough for high-beta. $CRDO, $IREN, $CIFR, and others just got nuked. $AMD down -17%, even $MSFT down -22%+ past two months. I'd expect when Midterms come around later in the year, we'll see a broader recovery.
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SNAP因高额SBC和债务问题破坏估值模型，回购被视为危险信号。
我将 $SNAP 的 GCP 运营支出削减和内存货币化纳入自由现金流(FCF)模型，结合与 Perplexity 的交易，其未来看起来被低估。但向“人才”和高管发行数十亿美元的股票薪酬(SBC) -> 进一步增加债务（尤其是那5亿美元回购）-> 支付额外的债务利息，彻底破坏了该模型。这一切取决于 Evan 是否能显著降低 SBC。但在我看来，那5亿美元的回购是一个危险信号，而非利好。
英文原文
I modeled $SNAP GCP opex cuts and memory monetization into FCF and it looked undervalued moving forward with the Perplexity deal. But issuing billions in SBC to "Talent" and executives -> going into further debt (especially the $500M buyback) -> paying additional debt interest blows that model apart. This is all in the hands of Evan to make that change if he lowers SBC notably. But the $500M buyback is a red flag to me instead of a positive thing to me.
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SNAP借债回购掩盖高额股权激励，实质是财富转移，建议回避。
$SNAP 刚刚发布财报并宣布5亿美元股票回购计划。 回购是一个危险信号。 Q4 报告： - 营收：17.16亿美元（+10%） - 自由现金流(FCF)：2.06亿美元（+13%） - 净利润：4500万美元 - 毛利率：59% $SNAP 确认了2.572亿美元的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)，年末SBC总额达10.17亿美元。 如果 $SNAP 用现金而非股票支付员工/高管薪酬，其季度“自由现金流”实际上将是-5100万美元。 你看到的是30亿美元的资产负债表，但他们净现金为-4.9亿美元，因为他们正借入35亿美元以上的长期债务来进行回购。 这与 $META 或 $NVDA 利用资产负债表多余资本进行的回购不同。 这是为了抵消授予高管和“人才”的股票期权。 他们为债务支付的市场利率为6.875%。 仅用于“回购”的债务利息现在每季度超过3000万美元，即每年1.2亿美元以上。 财报看起来很棒，但股票薪酬造成的视觉错觉让现实显得糟糕透顶。 我个人不会投资维多利亚的秘密模特的私人存钱罐。
英文原文
$SNAP Just reported earnings and issued a $500M share buyback. The buyback is a red flag. Q4 Report: - Revenue: $1.716 Billion (+10%) - FCF: $206M (+13%) - Net Income: $45M - Gross Margins: 59% $SNAP recognized $257.2 million in STOCK BASED COMPENSATION, ending the year with $1.017 billion in SBC. If $SNAP paid employees/executives in cash instead of stock, If their "Free Cash Flow" for the quarter would actually be -$51M. You see a $3B balance sheet, but they are net cash -$490 Million, because they are going into $3.5B+ in long term debt to do buybacks. These are not $META or $NVDA buybacks because of excess capital from their balance sheet. It's to offset any stock grants going to their executives and "Talent". They are paying market rates of (6.875%) for their debt. That debt interest is now over $30M+ a quarter, so $120m+ a year just for "buybacks". Earnings look great, but the stock compensation optical illusion makes the reality look horrendous. I would personally not invest in a Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank.
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转发埃隆·马斯克的推文链接。
@sama https://t.co/fNpECxPgKF
英文原文
@sama https://t.co/fNpECxPgKF
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作者对比特币市场极度恐惧情绪表示不解，并表达在7万美元价位极度贪婪的观点。
@pepemoonboy 是的！我不明白为什么市场会对比特币(Bitcoin)感到极度恐惧。如果我看到比特币回到 7 万美元，我会感到极度贪婪。https://t.co/LNNPHst0nW
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Yeah! Not sure why markets are in extreme fear with Bitcoin. I feel extremely greedy now if I see Bitcoin back at $70K. https://t.co/LNNPHst0nW
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博主将50%仓位投入比特币，视其为长期最高信念资产。
我对比特币持有纯粹且完全坚定的信念。 我刚刚在约 73,000 美元的价格将 50% 的仓位投入其中。 在长期时间框架下，比特币和 $RKLB 是我信念最强的资产。 我很乐意持有任何波动。
英文原文
I have pure and completely regarded conviction in Bitcoin. Just put in 50% of my portfolio into it around $73K. Bitcoin and $RKLB are my highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe. I’m happy holding it through any volatility. https://t.co/IskCechnmA