· 供应链分析
好问题！答案是宏观/芯片。2023-2024年AI起步时，美联储将利率大幅上调至5%+。公用事业股通常类似债券替代品，因为基建背负大量债务。当时最佳选择是$NVDA，因为硅/芯片短缺。2023年市场不太关心电网电力，因为服务器尚未联网。但现在Mag7囤积的数百万芯片终于开始运行。虽然$TSM仍是瓶颈，但美国电网可能是最大瓶颈之一。此外，我们从训练（约占AI电力预期的10-15%）转向推理，后者由数十亿人24/7使用。因此，在去年降息、今年进一步降息以及前所未有的推理扩张后，现在可能是电力/电网起飞的时候。
Great question! Answer to that is macro/chips. 2023, 2024 when AI first started taking off, fed was jacking rates up to 5%+. Utilities are often kinda like bond proxies since they carry a lot of debt for infra buildout. Best play then was $NVDA since silicon/chips were in shortage. Market didnt really care about grid power back in 2023 because servers weren' connected. But now there's millions of chips hoarded by mag7 that are finally getting turned on. So while $TSM is still a bottleneck, US power grid is likely one of the biggest ones. Also we've shifted from training (which was like 10-15% of AI power expectancy) into inference, which just runs 24/7 used by billions of people. So after rate cuts last year, more this year, and just unprecedented inference expansion, probably now is the time for power/grid to take off.