白毛股神SERENITY · 中文档案

顺着供应链向上游走，
找到那个没人盯着的卡点。

Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）是 X 平台 66 万粉丝的美股博主， 从工程与产业链角度寻找 AI 时代的供应链瓶颈与"隐形冠军"， 中文财经社区因其形象与战绩称之为「白毛股神」。 本站将他的全部公开推文翻译成中文，按个股论点 / 供应链分析 / 方法论 / 业绩复盘四类归档， 每 30 分钟自动同步最新推文中文版。

代表案例：一条推文带火机器人谐波减速器龙头绿的谐波；光子学 $SIVE 三个月暴涨 1900%；早期判断 $AXTI InP 衬底产能瓶颈； CPO 共封装光学、InP 衬底、AI 数据中心光互联等核心赛道的全程记录。

已收录 6399 条推文 覆盖 1033 个标的 时间跨度 2025-07-02 → 2026-08-13

🇨🇳 博主提到的中国 A 股

共 37 条 · 含 A 股代码 / 上证创业板科创板 / 绿的谐波等关键词的推文 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AVGO$COHR$LITE$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。

    哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。

    英文原文

    Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

    原推 ↗
  2. 方法论 $AAPL$PYPL

    主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。

    @highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。

    英文原文

    @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $SKHY

    SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。

    @chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。

    英文原文

    @chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE$SOI$TSM

    高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。

    谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。

    英文原文

    Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $CCXI

    LeaderDrive创新高，中美机器人热潮推动板块情绪高涨。

    LeaderDrive (688017) 今日触及20%涨停后创下历史新高。机器人板块的热情似乎已触手可及……主要由美国和中国的尖端人形机器人公司 $CCXI / Agility Robotics 推动。以及宇树科技（今日获STAR上市批准） https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    英文原文

    LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) https://t.co/GCqizzzuTQ

    原推 ↗
  6. 供应链分析 $RKLB

    美股流动性聚焦太空等前沿产业，RKLB存在溢价。

    @sokarsokk 像 LeaderDrive 这样的名字处于历史高位？当然取决于具体公司。 美国的流动性运作方式略有不同，通常聚焦于太空、机器人、AI 等下游前沿产业。 如果我们以 $RKLB 作为太空领域的例子，它存在溢价。

    英文原文

    @sokarsokk Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $2316

    WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。

    我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。

    英文原文

    I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.

    原推 ↗
  8. 个股论点 $093370$TSM

    富松因中国对日出口管制致钨源短缺而受益，单日涨幅远超指数。

    我确实说过富松(093370)将成为中国对日本实施出口管制所造成瓶颈的主要受益者……大多数人追逐7.5%的指数回报，然而随机发现的瓶颈可能在一天内带来21%的涨幅，哈哈。

    英文原文

    I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan… Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol

    原推 ↗
  9. 杂谈 $SIVE$SOI$SPCX

    博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。

    如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，

    英文原文

    If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,

    原推 ↗
  10. 杂谈 $300376

    调侃众包名单带动300376大涨。

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376 怎么涨了20%啊哈哈。

    英文原文

    ???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376怎么涨了20%啊哈哈 https://t.co/OdmqmIYB6V

    原推 ↗
个股论点2378 供应链分析1320 方法论652 业绩复盘481 杂谈1568

最新推文

每 30 分钟自动同步 · 仅展示最新 10 条 · 查看全部 6399 条推文 →

  1. 个股论点 $SMCI

    博主在财报日买入SMCI，认为CEO负面言论对股价影响有限。

    @Highonstocks_ 是的，我个人在看到指引后，在财报发布当天买入了 $SMCI。毕竟，‘吹风机效应’（指CEO的负面言论）对股价的拖累应该也是有限度的，对吧？

    英文原文

    @Highonstocks_ Yeah I personally bought $SMCI on earnings day after I saw the guidance. At a certain point, hairdryers should only weigh down a stock so much right?

    原推 ↗
  2. 个股论点 $POET

    POET获230万新订单，需等财报电话会确认。

    @Papsytwinz 嗯，除了 $POET 新增的 230 万美元采购订单外，没什么特别有趣的消息。需要等待财报电话会议。

    英文原文

    @Papsytwinz Uhh nothing really too interesting aside from a new $2.3M purchase order for $POET Will need to wait for earnings call.

    原推 ↗
  3. 供应链分析 $ORCL$SPCX

    点评Vantage、Anthropic等IPO估值，质疑Anthropic并看好Unitree。

    IPO新闻……Vantage Data Centers正考虑以惊人的1000亿美元估值上市。如果不熟悉，$ORCL是Stargate（OpenAI终端用户）的锚定租户，Vantage开发/运营超大规模数据中心。Anthropic也预计IPO，据FT报道，投资者预期其估值达2万亿美元，超越$SPCX。嗯……我对Anthropic的估值持保留态度。Jim Cramer为这种估值辩护从来都不是好兆头。顺便说一句，Opus 5大概是我用过的最差的消费级大语言模型(LLM)，它就像一个智商只有5的LLM，基于糟糕的数据检索运行，还带着一种类似《神偷》(Fable)游戏里的上帝情结。不过企业端可能体验更好。Unitree也预计本月IPO，估值90亿美元。这对人形机器人板块是积极的风口。SHEIN不是AI概念股，但将于本月19日尽快上市。去问问你认识的任何女孩，她们可能都熟悉这个平台。

    英文原文

    In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    CW激光器供需失衡严重，成AI供应链关键瓶颈。

    @blkslymn 我不确定是不是只有我这么看，但我现在正看到巨大的连续波(CW)需求失衡（感谢 $NVDA）。这还是在规模扩展(scale up)和其他 1.6T 产品量产甚至到来之前。然后 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们拥有稀缺且独立的 CW 激光器或光模块产能……这通常会导致其他主要玩家如 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商转向关注它们。$MTSI 表示他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，而客户已经带着紧迫感向他们接洽……CW 激光器是我目前最看好的瓶颈之一。

    英文原文

    @blkslymn I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.

    原推 ↗
  5. 方法论 $POET$SMCI

    博主说明研究发布习惯及持仓披露规则。

    @dra99aso 我通常随着新消息发布（例如 Lumilens $55 亿估值公告 + 超大规模云厂商合同）沿途发布研究。但如果我像对 $POET 或 $SMCI 那样早先持有头寸，我会将其放入披露中。也许稍后我会做一个总结 TLDR。

    英文原文

    @dra99aso I usually just post research along the way as new news comes out (eg. Lumilens $5.5B valuation announcement + hyperscaler contracts). But I'll drop it in disclosures if I have a position on something like $POET or $SMCI earlier. Maybe I'll do a roundup TLDR later.

    原推 ↗
  6. 个股论点 $AAOI$POET$SIVE

    分析SIVE、AAOI、POET三股在营收、产能及客户方面的不同瓶颈。

    @SammmXBT 如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模云计算供应商 + 对 CW DFB（分布式反馈激光器）的需求可见性。市场希望如何为等待 2027 年上半年 1.6T 升级至 2027 年下半年 共封装光学(CPO) 规模化这一过程定价或赋予溢价？ $AAOI = 等待产能执行 对光模块的需求可见性极高。他们能否提升产能以满足每月 4.71 亿美元的预测？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值现金过多 + 供应链产能建设资金充足，但需求可见性很低。

    英文原文

    @SammmXBT If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.

    原推 ↗
  7. 个股论点 $AAOI$POET$SIVE

    分析$POET高现金低EV及产能风险，认为其技术壁垒弱于$SIVE，属高风险博弈。

    好吧，这是我的 $POET 观点，毕竟子版块里有人因为我建了小仓位而在庆祝。 - 我完全没头绪。真的零头绪。他们是怎么说服股东允许他们如此大幅稀释股权，以至于： 他们现在手头有荒谬的 ~8.3 亿美元现金。 而且我猜他们快完工了，因为如果还需要更多资金，我会难以置信。 所以现在……他们有 ~8.3 亿美元用于通过并购(M&A)等业务扩张，且企业价值(EV)最近真的降得很低（例如：12.5 亿美元市值 vs. 8.3 亿美元现金在手），我认为这值得冒个险。 - 2027 年年度产能目标为 1200 万台光学引擎，这个爬坡速度相当离谱。 需要深入研究 Poet 产品的平均售价(ASP)，但可能在 $125-$200？所以按 ~$150 ASP 算，收入天花板约 18 亿美元。 但他们现在有点像反向的 AAOI：没有可见的需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens，它现在是一家估值很高的超大规模供应商（可能是亚马逊或微软），拥有数十亿美元的客户协议。 有趣的是，如果 Poet 利用资产负债表与三菱等玩家签署了预付 EML 协议，或与 Sivers 签署了 CW 协议。 鉴于当前的瓶颈，玩家可能会利用 Poet 作为采购供应的变通方案。 但基本上，你拥有一家超级现金充裕、大量产能即将上线的公司。而且凭借他们的财务状况，他们不会很快消失。 我不太认为其技术护城河能像上游激光瓶颈那样具有防御性，比如 $SIVE 在 CW 激光器与 OE 封装方面的技术壁垒。正如你最近看到的 Celestial 和 Poet 的情况。 但也许……未来某个时候会有超大规模企业或下游公司宣布批量协议，$POET 随之起飞。而且他们确实具备爬坡的供应链布局。 这是我最终承担的风险，但它不像 $AAOI 那样对我来说是显而易见的长期看好。

    英文原文

    Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.

    原推 ↗
  8. 个股论点 $AXTI$IQE$LITE$MTSI$TSEM

    IQE论点获验证，债务清零且获大厂订单，作者继续持有看多。

    感觉今年2月我对 $IQE 的论点连同 $AXTI 等一起得到了验证。（我目前仍持有两者的多头头寸） 所以我减少了对它们的覆盖。但简而言之，更新如下： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于它的论点时，IQE 是光学供应链中一个陷入困境但关键的瓶颈环节，与 $LITE 等公司有关联。 自那以来： - $MTSI 签署了长期外延晶圆供应协议，并入股该公司，现在 IQE 已无银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签署了磷化铟(InP)外延晶圆协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 族外延晶圆供应” - IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中仍在展开的部分是 IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以匹配该领域的同行如 Landmark（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，略多于一年的时间）。 还有一些国家安全层面的含义，我将避免谈论，但这使它们更加重要。 但基本上： 2025财年营收：9730万英镑 2026财年指引：超过1.265亿英镑 它们在光学领域再次快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。 现在……随着与领先光子学公司的新协议带来营收增长，以及像 Macom 这样的玩家充当软性后盾。 通常在论点得到验证后，我只是坐享企业的增长。

    英文原文

    Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.

    原推 ↗
  9. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    推测 SIVE 或整合新技术，为 CPO 提供高功率多波长光引擎。

    @dankdrankkz Sivers 发现了一家去年完成 B 轮 300 万美元融资的小型公司，据称其单发射器功率已达 200-250 瓦。$SIVE 或许可以将其与高波长 DFB 阵列相结合，打造出例如 8/16 × 200-250 瓦的超高功率产品，以实现极高的总输出功率。该项目的重点在于共封装光学(CPO)对“更高功率、更多波长”的需求，这是我的猜测。

    英文原文

    @dankdrankkz Sivers found a small Series B company that raised $3m last year that achieved 200-250mw per emitter apparently. $SIVE can maybe combine that with their high wavelength DFB array, and maybe make something extremely high power like eg. 8/16 × 200-250mw for high aggregate output. Program was focused on "need for higher power, more wavelengths" for CPO, so that's my guess.

    原推 ↗
  10. 供应链分析 $COHR$LITE

    基于财报指出CPO量产最早时间点，认为具体时间表极具看多意义。

    @JoelLikesTurtle 如果你查看 $LITE 和 $COHR 的财报，共封装光学(CPO) 实现规模化量产的最早时间框架确实就是现在。而且给出如此具体的时间框架实际上是非常看多(bullish)的。

    英文原文

    @JoelLikesTurtle That's literally the earliest timeframe possible for CPO scale up early volumes if you look at $LITE and $COHR earnings. And giving that specific timeframe is actually extremely bullish.

    原推 ↗

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关于「白毛股神」Serenity

白毛股神（英文 White Hair Stock God）是中文财经社区给美股 X 博主 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) 的称呼，源于他独特的银白发型与一系列在 AI 与半导体供应链上"提前看见瓶颈"的精准判断。

他的研究方法核心是从工程与产业链角度倒推：每一波 AI 算力扩张背后 必然有一个环节产能跟不上，谁卡在那里、谁就握有定价权——他称这些公司为"隐形冠军"。 代表作之一是 2026 年 6 月点名机器人谐波减速器龙头"绿的谐波"后该股迅速成为市场焦点； 光子学 $SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）在他喊出后三个月内涨幅约 1900%； $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）衬底瓶颈、Coherent $COHR 的 CPO 共封装光学路径， 也是被他早期持续覆盖的代表案例。

本站收录他的全部公开英文推文并自动翻译为中文，按 个股论点、 供应链分析、 方法论、 业绩复盘 四类整理，方便中文读者学习其研究框架。 详细说明 →