· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AAOI$AMD$LITE$NVDA$SIVE
@wosa42 市场往往直到直接声明出现时，才会注意到二阶影响。 - 如果 $LITE 完全售罄……（很大程度上是因为 $NVDA 限制了其他所有人，例如锁定格林斯伯勒产能），那么像 $AMD / 超大规模云服务商 / 等其他公司从哪里获取供应采购？ - $SIVE 即将投产，其自身就拥有全球当前约 1/6 的激光器产能。（1 亿+ cw dfb 激光器 vs. 全球 6.08 亿 EML/CW，据 Trendforce 数据）。 这还不包括他们目标为 2:1 的合作伙伴晶圆厂。 - $AAOI 明年也将投产大量产能，足以生产 40 万 ELSFP + 每月 4.71 亿美元的收发器。 再结合 Lightcounting 等其他供应链声明，如“过去 2-3 家供应商是常态，现在则是 5-7 家”。 因此，只要你的产品实际上有效 + 可扩展，很难想象拥有产能的其他人不会进入你的供应链。 因为光组件短缺现在是一个巨大的瓶颈。
@wosa42 Markets often miss second order implications until it shows up in direct statements. - If $LITE is completely sold out... (largely due to $NVDA bottlenecking everyone else, eg. securing Greensboro capacity), where else do your other companies like $AMD / hyperscalers / etc. get their supply procurement? - $SIVE is coming online with like 1/6th of the world's current laser capacity by themselves. (100M+ cw dfb lasers vs. 608M EML/CW globally per Trendforce). Not even including their partner foundries that they're targeting 2:1 for. - $AAOI is coming online with a ton of capacity too next year enough to produce 400k ELSFP + $471m/month of transceivers. Then combine that with other supply chain statements like "Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7" from Lightcounting. So as long as your products actually work + can scale, it's hard to see anyone else with capacity not get qualified into your supply chains. Since optical component shortages are a massive bottleneck now.