全部推文
共 6448 条 · 第 206 / 215 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主分享在CIFR和NBIS抄底，并小额投机IREN看涨期权。
交易还没结束！虽然价格可能还会下跌，但我喜欢在这些价位。我也发实时动态，这样大家就知道我确实在 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 上抄底。另外加了 1.5 万美元的极短期 $IREN 看涨期权，不建议大家这么做。我只是手头有点零钱。
英文原文
Trading day isn't over yet! Also prices could still go down but I like them at these levels. I post live too so people know so people know I'm actually timing the bottoms with $CIFR and $NBIS. Also added $15k in very short term $IREN calls, would not recommend this one. I just have spare change
-
专注 $CIFR 看涨期权，逢低加仓 $NBIS 因看好基本面。
@taleino93 了解得不够多，我会专注于 $CIFR，我认为它很可能会回到 16 美元。目前我持有了约 5 万美元的看涨期权。对 $NBIS 的回调感到满意。如果它再次下跌，我会继续加仓看涨期权，因为我对基本面很有信心。
英文原文
@taleino93 Don't know enough, I'd just concentrate in $CIFR likely to head back to $16 imo. Ended up with $50k-ish in calls so far. Happy with $NBIS dip. I'll keep adding calls if they drop again since I'm convinced about fundamentals https://t.co/ahm6Bw4T1a
-
博主重申WSB上给出的60美元目标价，无视近期涨幅。
@taleino93 尽管自从我发布以来股价已上涨 20.8%，我在 wallstreetbets 上仍给出了 $60 的目标价(PT)！
英文原文
@taleino93 I gave a $60 PT on wallstreetbets even though it's up 20.8% since I posted!
-
指出$ORCL隐含波动率高，否则考虑买入看涨期权。
@__visionxry__ $ORCL 目前的隐含波动率(IV)也相当高。对于这家巨头来说，短期隐含波动率达到50%就算高了，否则我会在这个价位买入看涨期权。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IV is pretty elevated for $ORCL too right now. 50% short term for that megacap is considered high otherwise I'd buy calls at this level
-
类比博通财报后走势，认为甲骨文因OpenAI合作具买入价值
@__visionxry__ 这让我想起 $AVGO 的财报表现，股价先剧烈波动（急涨急跌）持续约一个月，随后迎来猛烈的报复性上涨。目前走势可能更多受期权交易影响，而非基本面。如果按字面意思看待 OpenAI 的合作协议，$ORCL 是一个很好的买入标的。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Reminds me of $AVGO earnings, spikes, dips for like a month, then face ripping rally. Probably more influenced by options rather than fundamentals at this point. If we go at face value of OpenAI deals, $ORCL is a great buy
-
超成长股遭抛售，矿企因降息预期下调而过度反应。
@claudiohrios 许多超高速增长股如 $ALAB、$CRDO，以及像 $IREN（忽略摩根大通的观点）、$NBIS、$CIFR 这样的矿企股票正面临大量抛售。前两者的抛售更有道理，但三次降息概率降低 8% 真的不值得矿企出现如此剧烈的抛售。
英文原文
@claudiohrios There's quite a lot of selling on a lot of hyper growth stocks like $ALAB, $CRDO, miners like $IREN (ignore J.P. Morgan), $NBIS, $CIFR. The first two make more sense, but decreasing triple rate cut odds by 8% really doesn't deserve this selloff for miners.
-
博主看好矿企风险收益比，逢低加仓CIFR期权、NBIS期权及IREN股票。
呃，我通常不做期权看涨合约，但我觉得矿企的风险收益比不错。在 $CIFR 下跌 5% 至 $11 时，我加仓了价值 $30k 的 1 月 $11 行权价看涨期权。在 $NBIS 下跌 4.6% 至 $103 时，我加仓了价值 $100k 的看涨期权，这只是其中一个行权价。在 $IREN 下跌 13% 时，我以 $40.13 的价格加仓了股票。
英文原文
Eh I normally don't do calls but risk/reward looks good to me on miners Added $CIFR $30k worth of Jan calls $11 strike on the 5% drop to $11. Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103. Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop. https://t.co/OP9EYjg34h
-
博主调侃盲跟佩洛西交易是有效策略，周末将研究TEM。
@halldj00 我可能需要花一个小时左右来研究 $TEM，也许会在周末进行。但凭直觉，@NancyPelosi1_ 通常总是对的。 我半开玩笑地说，盲目跟单复制她的交易其实是一种合法策略 https://t.co/YIbxO6xnhy
英文原文
@halldj00 It might take me an hour or so to look into $TEM, maybe over the weekend. But off the top of my head, @NancyPelosi1_ is usually always right. Half joking when I say this but blind copy trading is a legit strat with her https://t.co/YIbxO6xnhy
-
宏观及BTC波动致NBIS/CIFR大跌，看好CIFR逢低买入机会。
是的，这是宏观因素（3倍降息预期已被消化）的混合影响，$NBIS 下跌了5%，还有其他因素。此外，$CIFR 资产负债表上持有约1.54亿美元的比特币，尽管如果比特币大幅下跌，这有点反应过度。当然也可能是“利好出尽”，但消息面基本面良好，且稀释条款也不错。所以在如此大幅下跌时买入是个好机会。
英文原文
Yeah it's a mix of macro (3x rate cut priced down) $NBIS dropped 5% and others. On top of that $CIFR has like $154M BTC on their balance sheet, though it's a bit of an overreaction if BTC went down a ton. Also sell the news I guess, but news turned out to be fundamentally good + dilution terms were good too. So good opportunity to buy at such a large drop.
-
分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但更看好NBIS并计划加仓。
@__visionxry__ 一直在等待稀释消息，结果证明是利好，而非像 $CRWV 那样引发巨大的市场兴趣。 正如承诺给一位粉丝的那样，我进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是很好的操作。鉴于其资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（占比 -6.32%）以及宏观因素，这很可能是过度反应。 30 亿美元的合同期为 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的合同是 5 年 170 亿美元。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿美元以上稀释消息，0% 的兴趣率（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%）确实是利好。以 16.06 美元的价格发行，比当前市场利率高出 38% 以上。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上的债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后股价应该会上升。在接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比依然不错。 目前我仍然更看好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 30 万美元的 NBIS，我可能会少量买入 CIFR，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Was waiting for dilution news and turned out to be positive rather than large interest that $CRWV did https://t.co/9B5OXuk0J2
-
分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但认为NBIS更具投资价值。
应粉丝要求，进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是个好机会。考虑到宏观因素，加上资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（-6.32%），这很可能是过度反应。 $30 亿的交易为期 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的 $170 亿交易仅为 5 年。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿+ 稀释消息，且利率为 0%（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%），这其实是利好。当前价格 $16.06 高于市场利率 38%+。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后应该会上涨。接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比仅针对股票而言是很好的。 目前我仍更偏好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 $30 万 NBIS，CIFR 可能会买一点点，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
英文原文
As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro. $3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now (1h ago), 0% interest (unlike $CRWV 9%) is really positive. It's at 38%+ above current market rate at $16.06. This is how you do dilution. Very low debt on balance sheet too, there's probably going to be more dilution too but should rise afterward. There's likely going to be short term pressure approaching that number but risk-return shares only is good. As of now I'd prefer NBIS > CIFR though and would probably just buy another $300k worth of NBIS at these levels, I'll probably buy a tiny bit but still a solid company.
-
认为CIFR稀释条款优，建议逢低买入
@miningstockinfo @CipherInc 恕我直言，公司就应该这样进行稀释。对 $CIFR 来说条款相当不错，这里可能是一个不错的逢低买入机会。
英文原文
@miningstockinfo @CipherInc This is how companies should do dilution imo. Pretty good terms for $CIFR, might be a good dip buy here.
-
NUAI存在严重稀释风险，以低价向关联方增发，散户资金面临被掏空隐患。
所以我花更多时间对 $NUAI 做了尽职调查(DD)，发现了一些巨大的红旗：他们目前已以约860万美元的价格售出了1290万股。但有一份针对“ATW AI LLC”的10亿美元股票的超额配售权(EPFA)，定价为市场价的95%（“定价期内成交量加权平均价(VWAP)或最低交易价格中较低者的95%”）。简单来说，目前流通股本为5000万股，但有7.63亿股待稀释，以低于市场价95%的价格摊薄给股东，无论散户买多少。即使市值为4000万美元，他们也可以通过出售价值10亿美元以上的股票随时将市值稀释回2000万美元。他们还最近向“ATW AI”提议了30亿股稀释。除非股票能产生巨额收入/利润，否则早期买家可能会不断被稀释。这可能是我见过的最糟糕的有毒散户股东稀释性融资，否则我本可以轻松投入10万美元。我不确定是否信任该公司不只是拿散户的钱，以低于市场价95%的价格出售，然后将其转化为资产负债表。但如果他们不继续发行新股，结果可能会不错。
英文原文
So I spent more time to do DD on $NUAI and found some really big red flags: They've sold 12.9M shares for ~$8.6M so far. But have a EPFA for $1B in shares to "ATW AI LLC" for 95% under market rate. "95% of the lower of VWAP or lowest trading price in the pricing period" In simple terms 50m currently traded shares currently but with 763 million shares pending dilution on shareholders at under 95% market rate whatever retail buys at. Even at a $40m market cap, they can dilute anytime back to $20m by selling $1B+ worth. They also proposed a 3 Billion share dilution to "ATW AI" recently. So unless the stock can produce an enormous amount of revenue/profit, early buyers would likely just keep get diluted. This is probably one of the worst toxic retail shareholder dilutive financing I've seen, otherwise I would have put $100k in it easily. I'm not sure if I'd put my trust in the company not just taking retail funds, selling 95% under market rate, then converting that to the balance sheet. But it could turn out well if they don't draw.
-
警告不要使用2倍杠杆ETF。
@KinggTrades 是的，你完蛋了，不要使用2倍杠杆ETF。
英文原文
@KinggTrades Yeah you're cooked, don't do 2x leverage ETFs.
-
回复网友关于自身行为假设的疑问。
@MMerrino569447 你刚才是不是默认我没这么做？
英文原文
@MMerrino569447 did you just assume i didn't
-
建议直接加杠杆买入资产，除非控股公司有放贷等增值用途。
@4clout 如果你想的话，直接加杠杆买入实际资产即可。在我看来，除非控股公司(holding companies)能利用这些资产做点什么，比如通过放贷获利，否则持有它们毫无意义。
英文原文
@4clout Just buy the actual asset on leverage if you want, imo no point of doing holding companies unless they're doing something with it like making profits from lending.
-
博主回应运气成分，指出机构普遍看好当前估值。
@iamsattam 是的，我在指引发布时机上运气不错。不过股价可能本来就会涨，只是幅度可能是几个百分点，而不是单日15%。 我很多对冲基金/买方-卖方朋友也认为当前价格被低估了。
英文原文
@iamsattam Yeah I got lucky with the guidance timing. It would probably still go up anyway, maybe a few percent rather than 15% in a day. Lot of my hedge fund/buyside-sellside friends think it's undervalued at current prices too.
-
博主感谢粉丝互动，表示在X平台从粉丝评论中获益良多。
@LibertadEterno 谢谢！人们可以自由地持不同意见或提出自己的看法。这正是我真正喜欢 X 的地方，我从像你这样的粉丝那里学到了很多关于 $ABAT 和随机评论的知识。
英文原文
@LibertadEterno Thanks! People are free to disagree or offer their own. That's what I really like about X, I learn a lot from my followers like you on stuff like $ABAT and random comments.
-
博主澄清观点基于行业经验，批评市场叙事并引用概率数据。
@vicecarloans 我经营一家金融科技(Fintech)公司，我们确实持有大量加密货币(Crypto)，所以这多少是基于领域知识(Domain Knowledge)。 那些叙事(Narratives)不过是让散户(Retail)接盘(Buy their bags)的手段。我只是试着说出诚实的真相。 Polymarket 对他的目标价(Price Targets)定价约为 1% 的概率，哈哈。
英文原文
@vicecarloans I run a fintech company and we do hold a lot of crypto, so it's sort of based on domain knowledge. Those narratives are just ways to get retail to buy their bags. I just try and give the honest truth. Polymarket prices in his price targets at like 1% lol.
-
分享UNH交易经历，计划因IV较低而买入TGT看涨期权。
@iamsattam 我对 $UNH 也做过同样的操作，买入价值 22.5 万美元以上，随后两天股价从 320 美元涨至 355 美元。 我希望它能回升至 100 美元，所以我可能会在下个月大量买入 3 月看涨期权。当时 $UNH 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)太高了，但 $TGT 的隐含波动率足够低。
英文原文
@iamsattam I did the same thing with $UNH buying $225k+ on it, then it went from $320 to $355 the next two days. I'd hope for recovery to $100, so I'd probably buy a lot more March calls next month. UNH IV was too high at the time, but TGT is low enough. https://t.co/v66nS92o4m
-
分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
-
市场因降息预期下调下跌，但标的被低估，建议继续定投。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 定投(DCA)。市场刚刚定价了三次降息的可能性进一步下降（65% -> 55%），并导致所有资产下跌。但从基本面来看，它被低估了，所以这无关紧要。
英文原文
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 dca. Market just priced in 3 rate cut chance dropping more (65% -> 55%) and brought everything down. But fundamentally, it's undervalued so doesn't matter.
-
博主被 WSB 解封，预告将发布月度高风险交易帖。
@taleino93 哈哈，管理员把我从 WSB 解封了。是时候发我每月的“赌徒(degen)”帖子了。
英文原文
@taleino93 Lol an admin unbanned me from WSB. Time to make my monthly degen post
-
博主点赞粉丝在大幅下跌日的交易操作。
@soulbiri1 我喜欢在下跌 5% 的日子进行的操作！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I like the play on a -5% drop day!
-
建议定投$AMZN，暂持现有仓位观望。
@__visionxry__ $AMZN 现在是定投(DCA)的好标的。 非常想买看涨期权(calls)，但除非出现单日跌幅达-4%的情况，否则我就继续持有现有仓位一周。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ $AMZN is a great DCA buy right now. Super tempted to buy calls but just sitting in current positions for a week unless there's some -4% day.
-
作者借ETH反弹减仓，强调独立思考优于追随市场叙事。
@StockSavvyShay 像我这样的人利用这次 $ETH 价格回到 4000 美元以上（以太坊）的机会，抛售了在 1600 美元时买入的筹码。 我可能错了，以太坊和 $BMNR 可能是糟糕的长线标的。人们通过独立思考赚到的钱，远比追随媒体或某些对冲基金经理试图炒作的叙事要多。
英文原文
@StockSavvyShay People like myself were using this time around $4k+ to dump the $ETH they bought at $1600. I could be wrong Ethereum and $BMNR is a terrible long, people make the most money thinking for themselves than following a narrative the media or some hedge fund guys try spinning up.
-
建议卖出CC虚值期权，逢低买入CIFR，GOOGL待进一步调研。
@DeepValueBagger 那些价值15万美元的牛排晚餐一定很美味。 说笑归说笑，卖出CC（Circus Circus）深度虚值（+35%以上，3天到期）的期权是个好主意，尤其是如果你持有看涨期权的话。 乍一看，逢低分批买入（DCA）下跌16%的$CIFR是明智之举。不过我仍需对$GOOGL的交易做更多尽职调查（DD），以建立足够的信心。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Those $150k steak dinners must be tasty. Jokes aside, selling CC's way OTM (+35%+ 3d) is a good idea, especially if you calls. From first glance, it's smart to DCA $CIFR -16% dips. Though I still need to do more DD into the $GOOGL deal though to have enough conviction.
-
嘲讽那些展示巨额模拟盘却靠低价订阅收费的博主。
@zenovaire 我只是在笑，因为有些人发布价值500万美元以上的纸上投资组合(paper portfolios)，却只要求5美元的订阅费。做一笔波段交易(swing trade)你就能赚40万美元。 如果你真的相信自己的交易观点(calls)很好，你就不需要订阅费，因为你早就靠交易(self-funding)养活自己了。
英文原文
@zenovaire Yeah I'm just laughing since some of these people post $5M+ paper portfolios but ask for $5 subscriptions. One swing trade and you make $400k. If you actually believed your own calls were good, you wouldn't need subscriptions, since youd be funding yourself off your trades.
-
更正$TGT日期错误，预计10月因股息前效应恢复。
@soulbiri1 谢谢。抱歉我把 $TGT 的日期搞错了一个月哈哈，希望你已经卖出看涨期权(CC)以防止时间价值损耗(theta decay)。 股息日是11月12日，所以我预计股价会在10月而非本月恢复。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Thx. Sorry I got $TGT off by a month lol, hope you sold CCs to prevent theta decay. Dividend is November 12th so I'd expect recovery Oct instead of this month.
-
批评营销付费群组的行为，赞赏博主分享持仓与见解。
@pepemoonboy 同意，他们发布糟糕或无稽之谈的建议时，却只是无休止地营销付费群组。你是我在 X 上关注的极少数人之一，因为你在分享持仓的同时也分享见解。如果一个人是真正的交易者，就不会乞求粉丝订阅。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Agreed, it's just relentless marketing of paid groups when they post terrible or BS advice. You're one of the very few people I follow on X because you post insights while sharing your positions If someone was an actual trader, they wouldn't be begging followers for subs https://t.co/FpCfD5fKRd