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探讨国防资金与近期大额军购合同对标的的潜在影响。
@diyinvestguy 也许是拟议的1.5万亿美元国防部(DoD)资金，加上委内瑞拉突袭行动带来的顺风以及其他全球冲突。或者，也许是上个月8.74亿美元的综合不定量采购合同(IDIQ)交易，10月份5亿美元无人机(UAS)导弹交易，12月份4200万美元远程火箭炮(LRR)项目交易，以及总计超过14亿美元的更多交易？
英文原文
@diyinvestguy Perhaps the $1.5T proposed DoD funding + tailwinds from Venezuela raid + other global conflicts. Or maybe the $874m idiq deal last month, a $500m uas missile deal in October, another $42m LRR program deal in December, and more totaling $1.4B+?
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澄清SCAR项目未取消，因误读导致股价大跌，博主趁机加仓$AVAV。
我在$AVAV下跌16%时加仓了。 市场对SCAR项目新闻做出了错误反应。 - 市场认为SCAR项目被取消，因此抛售超15%。 - 事实并非如此。在8-K监管文件中，他们表示将“继续为SCAR项目提供能力和产品”。 - 这是合同重新谈判，并非取消。 此外，这只是一份1.75亿美元的远期营收合同。$AVAV的皇冠明珠是通过Replicator计划部署的Switchblade无人机。 所以我个人今天抄底买入。
英文原文
I’ve added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip. Markets made a mistake with regarding the Scar program news. - Markets thought SCAR program was canceled hence 15%+ selloff. - It’s not. In the 8-K regulatory filings they said they would “continue providing capabilities and products for the SCAR program.” - This was contract re-negotiation. Not cancelled. Also this was a small $175m fw revenue contract. $AVAV crown jewel is Switchblade via Replicator So I personally ended up buying the dip today.
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建议逢低买入AVAV，认为市场对其合同重谈的恐慌被夸大。
@__visionxry__ 恕我直言，$AVAV 在下跌 15% 后是极佳的逢低买入机会。其主要收入来自价值超 10 亿美元的“弹簧刀”复制器（Switchblade Replicator）项目。如果市场因一份正在重新谈判的 1.75 亿美元合同而恐慌，那纯粹是在戏弄投资者。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IMO $AVAV is a great dip buy on the 15% drop. Main revenue is $1B+ switchblade replicator. Markets are trolling if they’re panicking over a $175m contract that’s getting renegotiated.
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博主澄清持仓策略：长线逻辑持股一年，短线如CRDO灵活交易。
@realstockfox 我目前实际上持有33个不同的头寸。如果你看过我的月度更新，我会追踪大量股票。但对于基于投资逻辑（Thesis）的帖子，我通常持有长达一年，因为它们是长线头寸。像 $CRDO 这类则是短期交易。
英文原文
@realstockfox I actually have 33 different positions right now. If you see my monthly updates, I track A TON of stocks. But with the thesis-type posts, I usually hold for a year since they're long positions. Stuff like $CRDO were short term. https://t.co/QxAketGwML
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作者因SSYS看错，转向寻找与Optimus产量强相关的VPG机会。
我在 $SSYS 关于原型机/量产爬坡的论点上搞砸了，所以我想要一个与机器人产量直接挂钩、且每台机器人能贡献高比例营收的机器人概念股。 这属于推测，但考虑到 $VPG 的体量，特斯拉 Optimus 每台机器人中约 3-8% 的 BOM（物料清单）价值对他们来说是不可思议的。
英文原文
I messed up on my $SSYS thesis regarding prototyping/ramp-up, so I wanted a robotics play directly tethered to the amount of robots produced with high % revenue for each robot. This is speculation but an est. 3-8% ~BOM value for each Tesla Optimus is incredible for $VPG given how small they are.
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博主回应批评改在盘中发文，并展示其过往论点均获正收益。
感谢大家的指正。很多人私信我，认为在盘后或隔夜发布投资论点(Thesis)会因流动性不足而加剧市场波动。因此，我改为在交易时段发布我的思考过程。我无法控制市场如何为信息发现定价，也无法控制我分享观点后的影响。自发布以来，$AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 等大多数股票上涨了 70% 且仍在上涨。像 $VLH 或 $LPTH 这样的股票也上涨了约 20-30%。我认为到目前为止，还没有任何一个论点在长期来看是亏损的。
英文原文
Thanks for calling me out on that. A lot of people messaged me privately that posting a thesis during after-hours/overnight would make things a lot worse due to lack of liquidity. So I end up posting my thought process during market hours instead. I have no control over how markets price in information discovery or me sharing my perspective on things. Most stocks from $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS are up 70% since I posted and still keep going up. Stuff like $VLH or $LPTH are up roughly 20-30%. I don't think there's been a single thesis that's been red over time so far.
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VPG被低估机器人拐点，营收增长潜力大，机构或仅时机过早。
许多人基于同比(Y/Y)营收对 $VPG 进行建模，但低估了机器人领域的拐点。从当前水平实现25亿至40亿美元的营收增长，提供了相当高的上行空间和极佳的机器人领域增长敞口。但这只股票已被机构广泛熟知，我认为Citron Research等机构可能只是时机把握有误，因为他们提前了数月甚至数年。
英文原文
A lot of people model $VPG based on Y/Y revenue, but underestimate inflection point for robotics. $2.5-$4B revenue ramp from current levels presents pretty high upside and great exposure to robotics ramp. But it's already a pretty well known stock by institutions, I think Citron and others likely just got timing off since they were months or years ahead of time.
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作者解释为何逆势做多VPG以提前布局机器人领域。
@alecolace 如果你对 $VPG 持看跌观点，那确实合理！无人机领域确实比机器人领域有更多的催化剂，但我个人想通过 $VPG 提前布局机器人领域的增长。再次强调，这只是我个人的观点，我不指望很多人会同意。
英文原文
@alecolace That's fair if you're bearish on $VPG! Drone sector has a lot more catalysts than robotics for sure, but thought I'd personally frontrun the robotics ramp with $VPG. Again these are just my own personal opinions, I don't expect a lot of people to agree.
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建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.
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博主转发并提及五只美股代码。
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
英文原文
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
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警告$DPRO风险极高，强调仓位管理，属投机性押注。
@Aldo_Aurelius 鉴于 $DPRO 营收极低，其风险极高。因此，如果你决定自行建仓，仓位管理(position sizing)至关重要。这绝对不适合所有人，因为它本质上是对无人机产能带来的收入确认(revenue recognition)的一次投机性押注。
英文原文
@Aldo_Aurelius $DPRO is incredibly risky given low revenue. So position sizing is important if you decide yourself you want to take positions. It’s definitely not for everyone as a speculative bet on drone revenue recognition from capacity
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认为FIG只需降低杂项费用即可改善毛利率表现。
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner 毛利率方面。他们只需要降低杂项费用，$FIG 的财报就会很好看。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner Gross margins though. They just need to lower misc expenses and $FIG prints
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博主表示持有AXTI以应对其20%的随机波动，避免频繁交易。
@jliljliljlil $AXTI 随机上下波动 20%，我只是持有它，而不是试图进行波段交易。
英文原文
@jliljliljlil $AXTI moves up and down randomly 20%, I just hold it instead of trying to trade it.
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Figma财务强劲且AI难替代，认为股价超卖。
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner 是的，$10亿 2025财年营收，91%的毛利率（高得离谱），40%的同比增长，$16亿现金且无债务。 看起来超卖了，像Opus这样的AI并不会取代Figma。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward @charlieliner Yeah $1B FY 2025 revenue, 91% gross margins (unholy) 40% y/y growth, $1.6B cash no debt. Seems oversold, AI like Opus doesn’t replace figma.
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分享短线交易获利及新建仓的持仓操作
@charlieliner 太棒了！像 $LPTH 这样的标的从 -5% 反弹至 +7%，这 6 小时的买入操作利润丰厚。 我自己也建仓了 $FIG，并定投(DCA)了 $META（尽管我原本告诉自己不会买软件类股票）。 好奇看看结果如何 https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
英文原文
@charlieliner Nice! Going from -5% to +7% on some of these names like $LPTH was extremely profitable 6 hour buy. I ended up initiating $FIG positions myself and DCA $META (even though I told myself I wouldn’t buy software stuff). Curious to see how that turns out https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub
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对比RKLB与DPRO的政府资金优势，提示早期风险并看好无人机基建。
好问题！这有点像 $RKLB 虽然来自新西兰，但受益于美国国防部(DoD)的资金支持。 $DPRO 同时受益于加拿大和美国的资金支持，因为它符合《国防授权法》(NDAA)的规定。 再次强调，由于处于早期阶段，存在大量风险，不要指望未来财报发布前会有太多利好被计入股价。我只是认为他们的无人机基础设施(Drone Infra)建设具有潜力。
英文原文
Good question! It’s kinda like $RKLB is from New Zealand but benefits from US DoD funding. $DPRO gets benefits from both Canada and US funding as its ndaa compliant Again there are tons of risks since its early stage and don’t expect much to be priced in until their future earnings. I just thought their drone infra buildout had potential
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DPRO作为稀缺上市CAD无人机公司，从某观点中受益。
@digestive_bisc 错过了那个巨大的观点，谢谢。$DPRO 作为少数几家上市的计算机辅助设计(CAD)无人机公司之一，从中受益良多。
英文原文
@digestive_bisc Missed out on that huge point thanks. $DPRO benefits a lot from that as one of the only public CAD drone companies.
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美股AI/半导体股隔夜恐慌后大幅反弹，验证地缘博弈下的供应链套利机会。
$ONDS 至 $LPTH 现已反弹 +7.16% 至 +9.0%。 甚至 $INTC 也上涨了 4.4%。 许多股票在隔夜交易中下跌了 -5% 至 -8%。 还有其他人利用 TACO 交易恐慌获利吗？ https://t.co/uwp9sW7sQn
英文原文
$ONDS to $LPTH are now back up +7.16% to +9.0%. Even $INTC is up 4.4%. Many were down -5% to -8% overnight trading. Did anyone else take advantage of the TACO trade panic? https://t.co/uwp9sW7sQn
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澄清估值指标，分享对PDYN及DPRO作为分包商被算法低估的看法。
承接上文，我想说的是企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue)比率，而非上面的市销率(P/S)。不过我之前也研究过 $PDYN，这是一家有趣的公司。另外，关于 $DPRO 的帖子并没有太多新内容，因为它在 Finx 上已经很流行了。关键在于其基础设施布局+大规模产能爬坡+作为分包商(subcontractor)缺乏亮眼合同这一复杂情况，这往往能触发季度财报(Q reports)中算法可能未定价的因素。很多人忽略了这一点，所以我想分享自己的看法。
英文原文
Pigybacking off of this, meant to say ev/revenue not p/s above. But yeah I looked at $PDYN before too, interesting company. Also there's nothing too new with the $DPRO post since it's already popular on finx. It's just really nuanced with the infrastructure setup + large capacity ramp + no flashy contracts since it's a subcontractor -> hits Q reports that algos might not price in. A lot of people missed that aspect, so just wanted to post my own thoughts about it.
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建仓$DPRO，视其为无人机战争基础设施，类比早期$RKLB，具高增长潜力。
我建仓了少量 $DPRO（市值2.4亿美元）。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商，Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB（Relativity Space）。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元（13倍），我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场（和我自己）之前忽略的点： Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商，而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》（NDAA）禁止大疆（DJI，曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额）后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河：嵌入式生产（embedded production）。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字，却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军（2025年9月）的合同不仅仅是交付无人机；而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂（Micro-Factories）。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部（Dept. of War）的体系中，创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是：他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系（作为分包商，Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同），以及 US-CAD 项目（双方均受益，如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金）。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长，$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面： -> 瑞典等欧洲国家（2026年）使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance（大型国防承包商） -> 美国战争部（美国陆军） 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金（健康的资产负债表），仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率（p/s）。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注，因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施（就像早期的 $RKLB），Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉，认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施（特别是 Replicator 项目，且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的）。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎（说服其他用户花了一些功夫），所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢，想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR：在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸，因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施（就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空），具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段，随着产能建设的收入确认，也存在大量风险。
英文原文
I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.
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LPTH因美欧冲突受益，提供美国本土黑钻替代方案，当前下跌属无差别抛售。
$LPTH 实际上是美欧冲突导致供应链中断的主要受益者之一，因为美国从德国和比利时进口大量锗(Germanium)。Lightpath 提供了瓶颈环节的替代方案，其黑钻(Black Diamond)产品 100% 在美国制造（前体也主要来自美国）。这很可能只是一次广泛的无差别抛售。
英文原文
$LPTH is actually one of the big benefiaries of conflicts between US and EU for supply chain disruption as US imports significant amount of germanium from Germany and Belgium. And Lightpath offers the bottleneck alternative with black diamond manufactured 100% in US (precursors mainly US too) This is probably just a wide indiscriminate selloff.
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博主坦言难以抗拒将仓位全仓转入Meta的诱惑。
@CB3409 我确实睡觉，但当我想把仓位全部转入 $META 的诱惑袭来时，这很难做到。
英文原文
@CB3409 I do sleep, but it’s hard to when I get the temptation to just full port it into $META
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博主分享国防及半导体个股观点，计划加仓DPRO和SKYT。
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 我之前发过关于 1) 供应链 2) 国防 3) 美国本土制造半导体 的帖子。但个人而言，$OSS 用于国防，$LPTH 因为那家伙特定跌了 5% 简直太蠢了。正打算加仓 $DPRO 和 $SKYT，因为它们都跌了 4-6%+。
英文原文
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 I made a post about it earlier regarding 1) supply chains 2) defense 3) made in America semis But personally $OSS for defense, $LPTH since that one dropping 5% in specific just stupid. Was looking to scale up $DPRO and $SKYT since they’re both down 4-6%+
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市场反复受关税影响，作者认为历史重演，但也承认可能看错。
@FahadMaow 市场正在应验这句谚语： “一次被骗，是你愚蠢；被关税骗了50次，是我愚蠢” 我们一次又一次地看到 TACO 剧本重演。鉴于中期选举和以往的历史，我认为这次也不会例外。 当然，我也可能错了。
英文原文
@FahadMaow Markets are following the idiom: "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 50 times with tariffs, shame on me" We’ve seen the TACO playbook over and over again. I don’t think this time is any different given midterms and previous history Could be wrong though.
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利用非理性恐慌逢低买入，博弈政策缓和后的市场反弹。
这类抛售既出于风险管理，也源于非理性恐惧，例如 $OSS 下跌 -6.1%，$SKYT 下跌 -6.3%，因此“TACO”交易策略提供了绝佳机会。尤其是像 $LITE 这样基本面健康的公司，在周五下跌 6% 后，隔夜又再跌 3.78%。我将进行逢低买入 -> 特朗普缓和局势（市场开始复苏）-> 达成贸易协议，市场创历史新高。当然，这可能只需一天，也可能需要 4-5 天，谁也不知道。
英文原文
These types of selloffs are both risk-management and stems from irrational fear, eg. $OSS down -6.1% $SKYT down -6.3%, so the TACO trade presents great opportunities. Esp. when healthy companies like $LITE drop another 3.78% overnight after a 6% drop on friday. I'm going dip hunting -> Trump de-escalates (markets start to recovery) -> Trade deal made, markets ATH. Of course this might be one day or 4-5 days, who knows.
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特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
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分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。
$AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准，并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。（因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功） $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator)，具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章，但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB，上行空间非常具有投机性。
英文原文
$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.
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调侃建议全仓买入Snapchat以娱乐。
@ChiefLiquidity 把它全部换成 $SNAP，这样你就可以在太阳辐射风暴上叠加一个跳舞的热狗了。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity Full port it into $SNAP so you can overlay a dancing hotdog on top of solar radiation storms
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调侃中美机器人技术差距，戏称需教配送机器人防身。
@Citrini7 这是美国机器人技术的巅峰时刻，而中国拥有能后空翻、练功夫、拿黑带的机器人。也许是我们该教教配送机器人如何反击那些把它们掀翻的行人了。 https://t.co/dJwns42aG6
英文原文
@Citrini7 This is the peak of American Robotics while China has backflipping, kung fu, black belt robots. Maybe it’s time we teach the delivery robots how to fight off pedestrians flipping them over. https://t.co/dJwns42aG6
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ONDS估值虽高，但作为独立标的仍具合理性。
@platochi @bennybigbull 与其他无人机公司如 $AIRO 相比，$ONDS 的估值（市销率）显得昂贵（28倍 vs 2.5倍）。我想表达的是，单看它本身，这是一个合理的选股标的。
英文原文
@platochi @bennybigbull $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies like $AIRO (28 vs 2.5 p/s) Standalone it’s a justified pick, is what I’m trying to say.