供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1122 条 · 第 8 / 23 页
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用 IQE 的资产负债表和光子转型解释重估空间。
在我原来的 thesis 里，我提到 Landmark 当时是 38 亿美元市值，而它的 InP reactor 产能还比 $IQE 更少。 但 $IQE 虽然有负债，却有很多资产，只需要把这些资产重组到 photonics 方向上，再把资产出售做完，把资产负债表理顺，就能迎来重估。 我当时觉得涨到 10 亿美元以上是有可能的，我们拭目以待。
英文原文
In my original thesis, I cited landmark was a benchmark at $3.8B with less inp reactor capacity than $IQE. But $IQE had debt but a lot of assets, just needed to refactor all those toward photonics + finish asset sales to clear up balance sheet for re-rating. I thought 10x to $1B+ was possible, we'll see.
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量子点激光投资应优先选择MBE设备供应商如Riber，比下游纯激光公司更早受益于超大规模云厂商资本开支周期。
如果你想交易超大规模云厂商的资格认证周期……以及像QD Laser（TYO: 6613）这样年内涨幅达226%的量子点激光：IMO最安全的方式是在早期就关注他们未披露的MBE机器供应商，如$ALRIB。然后当他们从资格认证阶段转向批量订单时，再转向纯激光公司。我之前提到过，$MSFT量子的Riber未披露的超大规模云厂商客户。但QD Laser（越来越受欢迎）在量子点项目上也严重依赖Riber。我不看好进入批量生产阶段（比如$AIXA对比实际的批量生产商），因为设备厂商无法捕获下游收入。但如果你想从资本开支研发周期中获益……比如QD Laser吸收资本开支成本（支付给Riber）来建设产能，$ALRIB、$ASML、$AIXA这类公司的财务数据通常会更早反映在资产负债表上，所以你不需要等2-3年才看到生产订单。
英文原文
If you want to trade hyperscaler qualification cycles… And quantum dot like QD Laser (TYO: 6613) up 226% YTD: IMO safest way to do it are their unknown MBE machine suppliers like $ALRIB early on. Then pivot to pure play lasers later when they move from qualification -> volume orders. I mentioned earlier $MSFT quantum was Riber’s undisclosed hyperscaler customer. But QD laser (getting popular) is heavily reliant on Riber too for their quantum dot program. I’m not a fan when it comes time to volume production (eg. $AIXA vs the actual volume producers) since machines don’t capture downstream revenue. But if you want to benefit from capex R&D cycles… eg. QD Laser absorbing capex costs (paying Riber) to build capacity $ALRIB, $ASML, $AIXA type companies usually hits the balance sheet much earlier so you don’t need to wait 2-3 years for production orders.
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担心味之素被激进股东逼涨 ABF 价格。
天啊，我真的希望 Ajinomoto 不要向这些激进股东让步。 WSJ 终于把旧消息翻出来了： “Palliser 入股 Ajinomoto，要求 ABF 价格上涨 30%+”（这是个关键卡点） 是的，我也对 $AXTI 做过类似的事……但那是美国 / 中国的问题，所以还算可以。 这也是为什么没人去照搬同样的剧本去对日本公司下手。 试图用西方对冲基金的掠夺式涨价来改变日本文化，是不被鼓励的。
英文原文
Holy ****, I really hope Ajinomoto doesn’t give into these activist shareholders. WSJ finally broke older news that: “Palliser Takes Stake in Ajinomoto, Urges 30%+ ABF Price Increase” (major chokepoint) Yeah, I did the same with $AXTI … but that’s US/China so it’s okay. There’s a reason why nobody copied that same playbook for Japanese companies. Trying to change Japanese culture with Western hedge fund predatory price hikes is not encouraged.
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用 Empresas CMPC 和 Softys 的纸巾业务讲供应链梗。
@MoreyMuse Empresas CMPC 的远期市盈率大约是 7.8 倍。 它的 “Softys” 事业部在拉丁美洲制造纸巾和餐巾纸。 它以解决浴室和墨西哥豆卷饼之间的重大供应链瓶颈而闻名。 https://t.co/bL6Bpb7YvO
英文原文
@MoreyMuse Empresas CMPC trades at ~7.8x fwd p/e. Its "Softys" division manufactures tissue and paper napkins in latin america. It's known for solving the major supply chain bottleneck between the bathroom and chitotle pinto bean burritos. https://t.co/bL6Bpb7YvO
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认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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根据以往先例推测，Win Semi 可能会迎来新的长期客户。
@iamsattam 我引用的是过去的先例：当 Win Semi 宣布定向增发时，$AVGO 成了他们的主力客户。 我的猜测是，他们这次通过这份公告，等于又拿到了一个新的长期客户。
英文原文
@iamsattam I'm citing this as the old precedent on when Win Semi announced private placements, $AVGO became their lead customer. My guess was they just acquired a new long term customer by filing this.
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猜测英伟达可能买入 Win Semi 股权，市场若解读成利空反而可能误判。
@Sim_Wizard 我的猜测是 $NVDA 可能在买 Win Semi 的股份，结合他们最近在光子学方面的动作和体量来看。 算法 / 市场上的人可能会把这解读成利空然后卖出，但我认为，考虑到 Win Semi 的历史，这其实更偏利好。
英文原文
@Sim_Wizard My guess was $NVDA buying Win Semi stake given their recent history in photonics + size. Algos/people might mistake this as bearish and sell, but I think it's actually bullish given the nuance of Win Semi's history.
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认为 Win Semi 定增稀释约 9.4%，但结合历史先例和大客户逻辑，整体偏利好。
所以这次定增大概是通过发行 4000 万股新股，带来约 9.4% 的稀释，主体是 Win Semi（3105）。 换成别的股票我会很谨慎……但上一次 Win 这么做的时候，$AVGO 买入了 Win Semi 的股份。 而且博通后来成了他们的主力客户。 这次也许会是像 $NVDA 这样的一级客户，考虑到他们最近对 $MRVL、$LITE、$COHR 的投入。 另外还有 3 年持有期。 我之前说过，Win Semi 是光子学、人形机器人和太空（比如 SpaceX）领域的基础性公司，它很可能还会获得另一位一级客户并长期合作。 这很讲究细节，但实际上是偏利好的。
英文原文
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105). Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi. And Broadcom became their lead customer. Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR. There's also a 3 year holding period. I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term. It's nuanced but actually bullish.
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称 Sivers 的激光业务被低估，是 Marvell 和 Jabil 的激光供应商。
@yy1625066197303 激光器就是在狂飙，基本上就是这样。我很喜欢 $SIVE 现在得到更多关注，感觉它作为 $MRVL、$JBL 的激光供应商被严重低估了。
英文原文
@yy1625066197303 Lasers go brrr basically, love $SIVE is getting more attention, feels extremely underrated as the $MRVL, $JBL laser supplier
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认为 LITE 的产能订单已排到 2028 年，显示整个光子学链条需求强劲。
@thgstar2 $LITE 的产能订单已经排到 2028 年了，这说明整个光子学领域的需求都非常强。
英文原文
@thgstar2 $LITE capacity order filled into 2028, signaling massive demand for photonics across the board.
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认为 LITE 的 backlog 和 AAOI 的自制能力都指向极强需求，AAOI 的市值目标开始显得可行。
我不确定大家是不是还没完全理解： $LITE 的 backlog 订单已经排到 2028 年，这说明需求极强，而且产能明显不足。 随后在超大规模客户需求外溢的二阶效应下： 猜猜美国被预测会拥有最大的 800G/1.6T 产能的是谁？ $AAOI。 他们自己制造 InP 激光器，自己设计收发器，还自己组装。 如果 $AAOI 能把产能爬坡执行到位，那大概率都会直接转化为营收，因为产品已经全部卖光了。 我从 50 亿美元市值推到 400 亿美元市值的目标价，现在看起来越来越可能了？
英文原文
I'm not sure people understand yet: $LITE backlog order fill into 2028 signals extreme demand. And a lack of capacity. Then by second order effect of hyperscaler demand spillover: Guess who is projected to have the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in America? $AAOI. They fab their own inp lasers, design their own transceivers, and assemble it. If $AAOI can execute on capacity ramp, that likely all translates into revenue due to everything being sold out. My $40B MC price target from $5B is starting to look more and more likely?
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分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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判断 SIVE / Win 会受新一轮 CW 激光周期带动。
$SIVE / Win 会受 2027 年下一轮架构超级周期里的 CW 激光推动。我现在只是像去年布局 $LITE 那样，提前在 H1 先埋伏。 你大概也知道，他们已经进了 $MRVL 的 Celestial、$JBL 的 1.6T LRO，以及 O-Net，所以到 2029 年会有很大的放量。 像 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 这些则是当前的光收发器周期。
英文原文
$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year. You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029. Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.
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认为美国光子学三巨头将受 AI 需求激增带动。
我们现在正处于光子学超级周期。 美国这三家 $COHR、$LITE、$AAOI 预计会受需求激增推动而表现不错。 最新报道： “Lumentum 正在经历来自人工智能行业的需求激增，其订单管线已经排满到 2028 年”
英文原文
We're now in the photonics supercycle. The trio from $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI in America are expected to perform well from a surge in demand. New Report: " Lumentum is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully booked through 2028 "
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认为变压器 / 开关设备是 DC 瓶颈，需求和 backlog 都很强。
遗憾的是，我的票并不是每周都能翻三位数。 $HPS.A 目前也就涨了大约 17%。 Hammond 是我在变压器 / 开关设备这个 DC 瓶颈上的选择，因为它市值更低，但在干式变压器市场的份额很高。 $POWL 也是我经常遇到的另一只不错的开关设备多头；我最后没有买，但还是顺手提一下。 变压器 / 开关设备大概被低估了，作为瓶颈很重要，但很多型号未来 2 到 5 年都已经卖光了。 也正因为如此，它们正在造成大范围的 DC 延迟，而从 backlog 可见度和极端需求来看，这些标的应该会是不错的结构性多头。
英文原文
Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week. $HPS.A is only up ~17% so far. Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share. $POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there. Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years. Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.
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亚马逊因Anthropic模型基于Trainium训练消息反弹，带动MRVL、AAOI等相关股
顺便解释一下你们可能想知道的$AMZN今天为何反弹：新消息显示Anthropic的Mythos及其最新模型很可能是基于Amazon Trainium训练的。这对亚马逊生态系统来说意义重大，从$MRVL到$AAOI都受益于Anthropic。就像今年早些时候谷歌TPU生态因Gemini而反弹，包括$LITE一样。
英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why $AMZN rallied today: New news that Anthropic Mythos and their latest models were likely trained on Amazon Trainium. This is big for Amazon’s ecosystem from $MRVL to $AAOI due to Anthropic. Just like how Google’s TPU ecosystem rallied earlier this year like $LITE from Gemini.
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把 VNP 视为 AXT 供应链替代方案。
@lamottown 我喜欢把 $VNP 当成 AXT 供应链的替代标的，这个名单只限美国，而 5n 是加拿大上市公司。
英文原文
@lamottown I like $VNP as the AXT supply chain alternative, this is a US only list + 5n is a Canadian listed company.
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解释 ALRIB 与微软量子相关，但市场目前可能还没给出合理定价。
@MarginCallMick 这只是围绕 $MSFT Quantum 和 $ALRIB 的新信息发现。市场怎么给它们和超大规模客户的关联定价，我也控制不了。 现在很多事情本来就是算法驱动的。
英文原文
@MarginCallMick This is just new information discovery around $MSFT Quantum and $ALRIB. Can't control how market prices in that connection to a hyperscaler. A lot of things are just algorithmically driven nowadays.
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澄清新标的是英伟达 CPO 生态相关的量子跟进。
@devandraan 不是的，这个新名字和 $NVDA 的 CPO 生态有关。这只是关于一个量子标的的后续跟进。
英文原文
@devandraan It's not, new name is related to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. This is just a follow-up regarding a quantum name.
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认为微软量子可能在买 Riber，其量子设备业务很有看点。
$MSFT 看起来像是在秘密买入 Riber < $ALRIB >，用于 Microsoft Quantum。 更广泛的市场和算法大概还不知道这种关联。 MBE 对量子计算、量子点激光器、VCSEL 和硅光子都很重要。 但如果 Microsoft Quantum： -> 开始向这家欧洲设备制造商采购 那长期影响会很大。 量子仍然非常早期，早期产业的风险也很实在。 但如果这家公司看起来像量子领域的 $AIXA，而且作为和 $VECO 并列的 MBE 双寡头之一，前瞻市盈率大约 27 倍并且还在盈利，那它就挺有意思的。 从公开的 LinkedIn 线索来看，美国超大规模客户正在使用 Riber 的 MBE 设备来制造前沿量子芯片。 至少这能验证这家公司作为一项技术的重要性。 而且也让它看起来更有机会在未来拿到量子计算和量子点资本开支周期。
英文原文
$MSFT looks like a secret buyer of Riber < $ALRIB > for Microsoft Quantum. The broader market and algorithms likely don’t know this connection yet. MBEs are important for quantum computing, quantum dot lasers, VCSELs, and silicon photonics. But the long-term implications are sizable if Microsoft Quantum: -> Are starting to buy from this European equipment manufacturer Quantum is still very early and risks to early stage industries are material. But since this company looks like an $AIXA for Quantum and trades at a profitable ~27x est. forward P/E, as a duopoly for MBE with $VECO, it looks interesting. From open LinkedIn intelligence, having a US hyperscaler use Riber MBE equipment to fab frontier quantum chips. At the very least helps validate the company’s importance as a technology. And makes it appear well positioned to capture quantum computing and quantum dot capex cycles in the near future.
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通过LinkedIn追踪发现$MSFT量子项目的未披露供应商，分析其在量子MBE设备领域的双寡头地位及财务状况。
所以彩蛋来了： $MSFT的Quantum项目似乎是一家未公开披露的超大规模云厂商... 而它秘密地从一家公司采购——根据LinkedIn追踪，这家公司的名称听起来像是和"Prime Ribs"有关。 -> Microsoft Quantum发布了照片 -> 放大左上角并放大 -> Prime Ribs机器验证确认？ 在量子机器的MBE（分子束外延）领域，他们与$VECO形成了双头垄断（可以类比$AXIA在光子学领域的地位，但这是针对量子领域）。 他们今天发布了财报： -> 已经盈利。财报发布后约25倍PE。 -> 资产负债表非常健康 -> 用于周边领域，比如硅光子学（例如Fujitsu的量子点分拆公司） -> IntelliEPI（除$MSFT外）是知名的买家 一些粉丝主动联系我了解这家公司的名字（DD发现功劳不归我）。免责声明：我认为他们的分析很有启发性，并且持有仓位。 -> 全部功劳归于@latent_value7发现了$MSFT的关联 -> 功劳归于@TheSarge_很早就让我注意到了这个名字 提醒一下：尽管我分享这些精彩发现，我不建议任何人根据我的帖子建仓。 我只是很惊讶，有人在X平台上发现了一家超大规模云厂商从前沿量子项目的小型供应商那里秘密采购。
英文原文
So the easter egg: $MSFT Quantum appears to be an undisclosed hyperscaler... That is secretly buying from a company that sounds with Prime Ribs according to LinkedIn tracking. -> Microsoft Quantum posted photos -> Zoom in to top left and magnified -> Prime Ribs machine checks out? It's a duopoly in the MBE space with $VECO for quantum machines (think $AXIA for photonics but for Quantum). They reported earnings today: -> It's profitable. ~25 P/E ratio after ER release. -> Very healthy balance sheet -> Used for adjacents, like silicon photonics (eg. Fujitsu's quantum dot spinoff) -> IntelliEPI (aside from $MSFT) well known buyer Some followers reached out about this name (not taking any credit for DD or finding it). Disclosure: I found their ideas interesting and have positions. -> Full Credit to @latent_value7 finding $MSFT links -> Credit to @TheSarge_ for bringing the name to my attention early on A reminder: Even though I share these cool ideas, I don't recommend anyone take positions based on my posts. I'm just impressed that people on X found that a hyperscaler buying from a tiny company for their frontier quantum program.
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认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
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通过公司实地拜访和线索，推测微软量子与光学供应链有关。
我去总部问他们关于 $NVDA GPU 集群和 $LITE 光学扩展瓶颈的问题。 我让他们给我看看新的 Mythos 模型，结果他们给我看了一间工厂。 很明显 OpenAI 和 xAI 的人才更强。
英文原文
Walked into the HQ to ask about Claude Opus bottlenecks with $NVDA GPU clusters and $LITE optical scale out. I asked to see the new Mythos models, they showed me a plant. It’s clear OpenAi and xAI has better talent. https://t.co/LXlyghhdeJ
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认为 SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量需要时间，但下半年会逐步追上。
@Niatama195432 $SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量还需要一点时间。自从我最初的 thesis 以来，它也就涨了大约 11% 左右，不过这取决于入场价。 当前收发器周期里像 $AAOI 和 $LITE 这样的公司已经完成了重估，但我预计其他标的会在 H2 追上来。
英文原文
@Niatama195432 $SOI takes a bit of time for CPO/siph ramp. It's only up ~11% or so since my original thesis, but depends on entry point. Lot of the current transceiver cycle players like $AAOI and $LITE have re-rated currently, but I expect the others to catch up H2.
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Aehr获超大规模客户量产订单确认，从资格认证转入大规模生产阶段。
$AEHR财报： - 当前积压订单：季度末为3870万美元，"有效积压订单"为5090万美元 - FY26下半年指引：维持对下半年2500万至3000万美元收入的预期 对财报的看法： 可以直接忽略当前财报，主要指标看的是超大规模客户在H2的产量爬坡。 产量爬坡信号确认： 1. "我们看到主要超大规模客户对我们的Sonoma系统发出了大量预测订单，用于其定制AI处理器ASIC的高产量生产老化测试" 2. "我们预计该客户近期将追加大量系统的后续生产订单，计划在Aehr的2027财年交付" 这正是市场预期的$AEHR从资格认证转向大规模量产的过程，类似$AAOI，我们得到了这个确认。 H2可能是进一步确认某大客户产量爬坡将延续到2027年。
英文原文
$AEHR earnings: - Current Backlog: $38.7 million as of the end of the quarter, with an "effective backlog" of $50.9 million -H2 FY26 Guidance: Reiterated expectations for $25 million to $30 million in revenue for the second half of the year Thoughts on earnings: Can just ignore current earnings, main indicators are around hyperscaler volume ramp H2. Volume ramp indication confirmations: 1. "We are seeing significant forecasts from our lead hyperscale customer for our Sonoma systems for high-volume production burn-in of their custom AI processor ASICs" 2. "We expect a significant near-term follow-on production order from this customer for a large number of systems to be shipped during Aehr's fiscal year 2027" This is what is expected with $AEHR transitioning from qualification to mass volume like $AAOI and we got that confirmation. H2 is probably more confirmation around siph customer volume ramp into 2027.
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超大规模建设延迟溢出效应利好已锁定产能的Neocloud公司如$NBIS。
英伟达($NVDA)的黄仁勋说： “$NBIS会照顾好你的。” （引用内容）我对上个月这份报告思考得越来越多…… 它对Neocloud板块比如$NBIS（甚至$CRWV）可能比市场预期的要利好得多。 因为超大规模云服务商建设延迟的溢出效应。 这也在一定程度上解释了为什么$META签署了270亿美元的协议。 那些已经为其建设项目锁定产能/组件订单的公司，可能会成为大赢家，因为其他竞争对手停滞不前。
英文原文
Jensen Huang from $NVDA: “ $NBIS will take care of you. “ https://t.co/lIRrnAC3fc
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给出光子学 CW 激光瓶颈的个人高 beta 排序。
下一轮光子学 CW 激光瓶颈： 我个人的高 beta 敞口排序： 1. $SIVE：3.02 亿美元 2. $AAOI：83.5 亿美元 3. Yuanjie（688498）：135.5 亿美元 4. $MTSI：174 亿美元 5. $LITE：561 亿美元 6. $COHR：492 亿美元 7. Suzhou Everbright：59.5 亿美元 8. LuxNet（4979.TWO）：17 亿美元 9. Henan Shijia（SHA: 688313）：62 亿美元 10. Furukawa Electric（TYO: 5801）：160.6 亿美元 11. Sumitomo Electric（TYO: 5802）：451.13 亿美元 12. Mitsubishi Electric（TYO: 6503）：712 亿美元 13. $AVGO：1.53 万亿美元 最后我自己拿了最高敞口的几个（但因为利益冲突，避开了港股标的）。
英文原文
For the next photonics CW laser chokepoint. Personal high-beta exposure tierlist: 1. $SIVE: $302m 2. $AAOI: $8.35B 3. Yuanjie (688498): $13.55B 4. $MTSI: $17.4B 5. $LITE: $56.1B 6. $COHR: $49.2B 7. Suzhou Everbright: $5.95B 8. LuxNet (4979.TWO): $1.7B 9. Henan Shijia (SHA: 688313): $6.2B 10. Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801): $16.06B 11. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802): $45.113B 12. Mitsubishi Electric (TYO: 6503): $71.2B 13. $AVGO: $1.53T Ended up taking the highest exposure picks personally (but avoided HK listed names due to conflict of interest).
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通过线索发现一个未披露的超大客户供应商，感慨“找彩蛋”也能用于股票。
原来……股票里找彩蛋也行？ 真不敢相信，我的某个关注者居然通过下面这些步骤，找到了像 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 这样的 T1 超大规模客户的未披露供应商： -> 看某位高管在 LinkedIn 上发的帖子。 -> 把他们照片左上角放大 5 倍 -> 找到一台外形足够特别、可以识别的机器 -> 根据机器的配色追溯到一家小公司 -> 最后锁定这家未披露供应商 我真的佩服。
英文原文
Turns out... Easter egg hunting works in stocks as well? Can't believe one of my followers found the undisclosed supplier of a T1 hyperscaler like $NVDA or $GOOGL by: -> Looking at an executive's from LinkedIn posts. -> Magnified the edges of one of their posted photo by 5x -> Found one of the machines that looked distinct enough to identify -> Traced the color scheme of a machine back to a small company -> Identified the undisclosed supplier. I'm genuinely impressed.
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强调 AXTI 仍是 InP 衬底和原材料瓶颈，但增发投票让市场紧张。
@Andres17G $AXTI 仍然是 InP 衬底以及制造这些衬底所需精炼 / 前驱材料的巨大瓶颈。 眼下最大的问题是 14 号的股东投票要把可流通股增加 5000 万股，这让很多人很紧张。
英文原文
@Andres17G $AXTI is still a massive massive massive bottleneck for inp substrates and especially the refining/precursors needed to make them. Main issue is 14th shareholder vote on 50M share increase that's putting people on edge.
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总结 AXT、TSEM、SIVE、COHR、SOI 在各自瓶颈中的位置。
$AXTI 是瓶颈。 $TSEM 现在还不是，但我预计它在未来一两年里产能也会被打满。 $SIVE 即将进入 CW 激光周期。 $COHR 什么都做，EML 这块是强项，但在其他一些东西上就不是。 $SOI 严格来说不完全是瓶颈，但它在 SOI 衬底上是垄断地位，而这些衬底对 SiPh 和 CPO 都是必需的，所以这会让所有相关产品都带来显著的营收增长。
英文原文
$AXTI is a bottleneck. $TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two. $SIVE upcoming with CW lasers. $COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no. $SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.
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认为多年期瓶颈让人能更安心持有，因为订单可见度延伸到 2028。
多年期瓶颈的好处在于： 从 $HPS.A 到 $SNDK 再到 $LITE 即便像今天这样市场波动，你也能睡得更安稳一点。 因为你知道即使只有 1 年，需求也会极其强劲…… 就算特朗普想把 Bikini Bottom 炸了，其他公司也可能受影响更大： -> 一家在变压器市场份额极大 -> 一家在 NAND 市场份额极大 -> 一家在 EML/OCS 市场份额极大。 而它们的共同点是，订单大概率都已经排到 2028 年。 这意味着几乎可以确定的基本面收入，以及下一年大概率的利润率扩张。 现在还是 2026 年上半年。
英文原文
The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from: $HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today. Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year... Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted: -> One has a huge market share over Transformers -> One has huge market share over NAND -> One has huge market share over EML/OCS. And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028. Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year. It's H1 2026 now.
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认为 Win Semi 被严重低估，在机器人、太空和 AI 供应链里都很关键。
一个被严重低估的冷门 OP 标的。 还是几乎没人谈论 Win Semi（$3105.TWO）…… 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE，以及从 $AAPL 到 $AVGO 再到 SpaceX。 感觉大家其实都在用它？ 我觉得 54 亿美元的估值低估了它在机器人、太空和 AI 超大规模客户供应链中的重要性。
英文原文
What a sleeper OP pick. Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)… From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX. Feels like everyone uses them? $5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo. https://t.co/lMg92KzufM
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认为 AAOI 的 5000 万美元相对未来扩产资本开支并不夸张。
@nasdaq90 5000 万美元，相比为了把美国做成最大的 1.6T 产能、用于 InP fab 和封装扩产所需要的 70 亿美元，其实差别很大。 而现在却是 5200 万股流通股里要再加 5000 万股，至于到底是为了什么，没人知道。
英文原文
@nasdaq90 $500m relative to $7B for InP fab and assembly expansion for becoming the biggest 1.6T capacity in America for $AAOI. Is materially different than 50m shares of 52m share float for nobody knows what.
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认为市场已经在给 LITE 的后续下跌定价，且其下跌会拖累其他标的。
@LepoulpePoulpo 是的，已经到 31 号了，而且你也看到了从那之后股价的下跌。在我看来，市场只是在提前定价。 而且 $LITE 跌了 7%，算法上也会把其他玩家一起带下来。
英文原文
@LepoulpePoulpo Yeah it’s 31st, and you’ve seen the stock drop since then. Imo markets are just pricing in. Also $LITE is down 7% and algorithmically it brings down other players too.
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指出变压器是当前很大的瓶颈，海外也在抢货。
@clarity_99X 现在变压器的瓶颈真的很大，大约一种型号要等 2 年，其他类型要等 3 到 5 年。 超大规模客户现在都在海外四处抢货，而且刚好有一家相对较小、加拿大市值 20 亿多的大公司掌握了很大的市场份额。
英文原文
@clarity_99X Yeah there’s a pretty big transformers bottleneck right now ~2Y for one type and 3-5Y for the others. Hyperscalers are kinda scrambling abroad for them, and it just so happens there’s one relatively small 2B+ CAD company with a very large market share. https://t.co/qUZ4TsWOys
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用订单和 backlog 说明变压器 / 开关设备是数据中心的关键瓶颈。
当前瓶颈：变压器 / 开关设备。 交易思路：在 184 加元买入 Hammond（约 22 亿加元 / 15 亿美元）的多头。 它们主导的市场包括： - 变压器（干式，多年瓶颈，约占市场 23%） - 开关设备（2-3 年瓶颈） - 还生产液体型产品（5 年瓶颈，规模更大） 我个人预计其价格会像 NAND 一样上调，因为 $AMZN、$MSFT 等公司都在争夺配额。 你可能见过这类说法： “美国一半的数据中心建设被推迟或取消，增长受限于电力基础设施短缺”…… 再往下看： “为了解决短缺……加拿大、墨西哥……成了 AI 数据中心高压变压器的最大供应国”…… 猜猜谁在加拿大的 Guelph、墨西哥的 Monterrey 3 和 4，以及美国都有布局？ Hammond。 再看文章引用的，为什么超大规模客户的数据库扩张正在崩掉： “这些挫折背后的主要原因，是关键电气组件的可获得性——比如变压器、开关设备。” 机构大概都在看 Powell、Eaton 之类的公司……但他们可能不知道？ 这些公司其实会买 Hammond 的变压器再装进自己的开关设备里（“大量卖给数据中心、开关设备制造商”）。 它们在变压器市场的份额其实很大（例如干式约 23%）。 最有说服力的信号： -> 2025 年 backlog 同比增长 122%。我们可以据此推测超过 10 亿加元。 例如，公司 2025 年销售额为 8.98 亿加元，产能已经顶到上限。管理层说，2025 年第三季度末的订单价值相当于整个第三季度 backlog 的 53%。 考虑到 2025 年第四季度营收是 2.54 亿，而 backlog “翻了一倍多”，我们可以推算总 backlog 超过 10 亿加元。 另外： “去年毛利率压缩是因为墨西哥工厂建设，但预计毛利率都会上升，工厂扩建会在 2026 年第二季度转化为加速收入增长”，也就是现在。 下行风险在于原材料成本（铜、电工钢）如果再次上升，不过既然处在这种瓶颈里，他们是可以提价的。 我个人的 2026 年前瞻市盈率估计大概是 18-21 倍，2027 年不到 15 倍，因为有产能爬坡。 但如果他们能一边提价，一边接到超大规模客户的紧急订单，前瞻市盈率甚至有可能到个位数。不过那可能会和新并购混在一起。 总之它还是很便宜。 简单总结一下： $AMZN、$MSFT、$META、$GOOGL、$ORCL 的数据中心正在被变压器 / 开关设备短缺卡住。 市场似乎错过了这家市场份额很大的小公司，尽管它有 backlog 可见度，而且随着产能扩张上线，营收还在增长。 我个人觉得很有吸引力，所以建了多头仓位。 当然，这只是我的个人想法，做决定前请自己 DYOR。
英文原文
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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认为超大规模客户延迟扩建带来的外溢，会利好 Neocloud。
我最近对上个月那份报告想得更多了…… 我觉得它对 Neocloud 板块，比如 $NBIS，甚至 $CRWV，的利好可能比市场想象得更大。 原因在于超大规模客户扩建延迟所带来的外溢效应。 这也部分解释了为什么 $META 可能签了 270 亿美元的交易。 那些已经为扩建锁定了产能 / 组件订单的公司，大概率会成为赢家，因为其他竞争对手会被卡住。
英文原文
I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month… It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think. Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover. And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal. Companies that already have secured capacity/component orders for their buildout are likely to be major winners as other competition stalls.
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判断台海冲突只是噪音，台湾供应链不会轻易被交给中国。
@BgEdgelord 我觉得这就是个无关紧要的新闻。我几乎可以肯定美国会在军事上保卫台湾。 他们不可能就这么把整个供应链都拱手让给中国。 中国也知道这一点，而且也不会想和美国直接开战、引发核级别后果。
英文原文
@BgEdgelord I think it's a nothingburger. I'm almost certain US would militarily defend Taiwan. There's 0 shot they would just surrender our entire supply chain to China. And China knows this and would not want a Nuclear fallout with direct US conflict.
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指出 AI 供应链极度集中，很多产能最终会落到越南。
@0xkyle__ AI 行业的供应链集中度极高（这其实也适用于国防），而且出人意料的是，其中很多最后都落到了越南。 在中国之外，能做大批量量产的替代地并不多……也许只有哈萨克斯坦一部分。
英文原文
@0xkyle__ There's extreme supply chain concentration in the AI sector (this was for defense), and a lot of it ends up in Vietnam surprisingly. Not exactly any alternatives out there for volume outside of China... maybe only Kazakhstan for some.
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分析太空光学地面站基础设施瓶颈及受益标的。
太空瓶颈：光学地面基础设施。 - “整个行业大约只建成了 10% 的光学地面基础设施” 那么，谁会受益？ - $EOS.ASX（在 Mount Stromlo 运营站点，配有“自适应光学”） - $SKPJF（TYO: 9412）| $NTTYY | Space Compass 是 NTT 与卫星运营商 SKY Perfect JSAT 的合资公司 - $SGBAF - 与 Cailabs 合作，做地面光学终端 - $SAFRY - 光学地面站制造商 如果这条路线失败，备选就会是： $VSAT、$GILT 分析指出，如果光学 mesh 因为云层或地面站不足而失败，架构会“退回到 Ka-band RF 链路”。 -> 短期资本会流向中继服务商（Kepler、Space Compass、General Atomics） -> 长期结构性赢家会是光子硬件制造商（Cailabs、Safran） -> 然后像 SpaceX 这样的公司会默认受益。很多还是私有公司。 “这个基础设施缺口现在已经不只是工程问题，而是对白宫[Golden Dome]重大政策目标的直接威胁。” 在实体地面基础设施扩张之前，轨道激光通信市场会被硬性封顶，因此这就是当前的瓶颈。 但我不太确定 capex 的规模是否已经接近超大规模客户 AI 建设那种级别，足以让这些公司明显受益。
英文原文
The Space Bottleneck: Optical ground infrastructure. - "The industry has built roughly 10 percent of the optical ground infrastructure" Now, who are the beneficiaries? - $EOS.ASX (operating stations at Mt. Stromlo equipped with "adaptive optics.") - $SKPJF (TYO: 9412) | $NTTYY | Space Compass is JV with NTT and satellite operator SKY Perfect JSAT - $SGBAF - Works with Cailabs to for terrestrial optical terminals - $SAFRY - Manufacturer of the optical ground stations Then if it fails fallback would be names like: $VSAT, $GILT Analysis states that if the optical mesh fails due to clouds or lack of stations, the architecture "falls back to Ka-band RF links". -> Near term capital flows to Relay Providers (Kepler, Space Compass, General Atomics). -> Long term structural winners will be the photonics hardware manufacturers (Cailabs, Safran). -> Then companies like SpaceX wins by default. Many are private. "This infrastructure deficit is no longer just an engineering problem but a direct threat to a major White House [Golden Dome] policy objective" Orbital laser communications market are hard-capped until physical ground infra scales, hence the current bottleneck. But not quite sure if capex is to the scale of hyperscaler AI buildouts yet to benefit these companies enough.
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认为西班牙相比越南更西方阵营化，澳洲 / 西班牙相关供应链值得关注。
@Jesusjlloret 是的，正如另一条评论提到的那样，和越南相比，西班牙显然更偏西方阵营，而 $EQR 和其他公司都很不错。
英文原文
@Jesusjlloret Yes Spain as another comment mentioned is a lot more western aligned compared to Vietnam, and $EQR and others are great.
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补充澳洲 / 西班牙是值得关注的供应链区域，但核心仍是保障供给。
这个观点很对，澳大利亚 / 西班牙和 $EQR.AX 都是不错的想法。 我也把越南映射到了其他前沿供应链，所以才把它列为重点关注区域。 不过，核心当然还是尽可能拿到更多供应，而越南刚好是一个稀土 / 关键材料的宝库。
英文原文
That's a good point, Australia/Spain and $EQR.AX is a good shout. There's other frontier supply chains that I mapped to Vietnam, hence why I pointed it out as a major area of interest. But of course, the main thing is securing as much supply as possible and Vietnam just happens to be a treasure trove of rare earths/critical materials.
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认为越南会成为西方供应链投资和稀土 / 关键矿产的下一个重点。
越南大概会成为西方供应链投资以及其他关键矿产 / 稀土的下一个重点区域。 其中一个就是钨（全球第二大钨生产国）。 $MSR Masan（越南河内）—— 越南主要的钨股票。举个例子，它过去 1 年涨了 168.33%。 他们先开采原矿，再加工成 APT 和钨粉。 还有很多非常重要的公司，我之后会再列一份清单。 但我确实预计大量美国 / 亚洲资金会流向这个国家。 尤其是在价格上涨、而西方正在确保供应链不再依赖中国 / 俄罗斯的时候。
英文原文
Vietnam is probably the next focus area for Western supply chain investment and other critical minerals/rare earths. Tungsten is just one of them (world's second-largest tungsten producer). $MSR Masan (Hanoi/Vietnam) - Primary tungsten stock in Vietnam. Up +168.33% 1Y, as one example. They mine the raw ore, then process it into APT and tungsten powder. There's many other very important names out there, I'll follow-up with a list later. But I do expect a lot of US/Asian investment to flow into this country. Especially as prices spike and the West secures supply chains independence away from China/Russia.
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回顾钨等关键材料因出口管制和战争而暴涨。
哦……谁能在一月份就想到钨会这么重要？ “中东战争期间，钨价飙升 557%” 肯定不是像 $ALM 这种公司，它在中国出口管制后，过去 3 个月涨了 75%。 如果你还在找其他需要留意的贵金属 / 关键材料： 铟、铋、碲、钼、锂、锑、镓、锗和石墨……都被列入了出口管制名单。 不幸的是，我自己一直在 $AXTI 上，主要是铟、镓和锗相关的敞口，今年至今也就涨了 215%。 不过，在供应链恐慌期间，还有很多更重要的公司。
英文原文
Oh... who could have thought Tungsten would be important back in January? "Tungsten Price Soars 557% Amid War in Middle East" Certainly not companies like $ALM up 75% this past 3 months after China's export controls. If you're looking for other precious materials to look out for: Indium, Bismuth, Tellurium, Molybdenum, Lithium, Antimony, Gallium, Germanium, and Graphite... were all named in exports controls. Unfortunately, I've been in $AXTI which mainly centered around indium, gallium, and germanium, only up 215% YTD. But, there's a lot more important companies out there during the supply chain panic.
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提醒 VELO 受 $500M shelf 影响，虽然有国防合同但稀释很重。
顺手提醒一下 $VELO。 它有一份 5 亿美元的 shelf，用于 ATM / warrants 稀释，相对于它 3.11 亿美元的市值，这个规模结构性上很大。 它也是个受散户 X 关注的热门票，之前大家在炒 SpaceX、Andruil 和国防供应链。 包括： - 来自战争部的 3260 万美元 - 来自国防主承包商的 1150 万美元 - 来自 DLA 的 980 万美元 这些合同最近都拿到了（对公司总体上是利好）。 他们说这笔稀释是为了“在未来十年扩建 400 套生产系统”以及并购。 不过我确实觉得相对于市值来说，这个金额还是挺掠夺性的，尤其是 ATM 的情况下。 我之前提到过，$VELO 这家公司战略上可能是对的，但从财务角度看就没那么好了，而这本身就是一个必须时刻考虑的重大风险。 不过如果你还在持有，了解一下这个过hang 风险也很重要。 只是标准风险披露一下，因为它是个很受欢迎的名字。
英文原文
Just a heads up to $VELO. There was a $500M shelf for an ATM / Warrants dilution, which is structurally large relative to its $311m MC. This was a popular retail X stock for speculated SpaceX, Andruil, and Defense supply chains: With: - $32.6M from Department of War - $11.5M from Defense Primes - $9.8M from DLA Contracts all recently (largely positive for the company). They announced the dilution was for "scaling 400 production systems over the next decade" as well as M&A. However, I do think this amount relative to MC is pretty predatory, especially with ATMs. I mentioned earlier companies like $VELO can be strategically sound, but financially, not as much so when I covered the stock earlier. And this is a material risk to always consider. But, it's good to understand overhang risk if you're still long. Just a standard heads up risk disclosure since this is a popular name.
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称自己掌握了很多供应链漏洞，但不会公开所有细节。
我到处都映射了很多供应链漏洞。我觉得有些最好还是不要公开，因为那只会把国家安全风险暴露出来。 不过我还是决定拿 $AXTI 来玩一下……如果碰上日本出口管制，结果可能就没那么好了。 所以啊，有些东西我不会提，但如果我有一些核心想法，而且它们是不错的多头，我还是会尽量公开出来。
英文原文
I mapped a ton of supply chain vulnerabilities here and there. I think it's better not to share some since it would just spotlight national security risks. Decided to have some fun with $AXTI though... it might not have turned out as well with Japan export controls. So yeah, there's some I don't mention but any core ideas I have I try and publish them if they're good longs.
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认为欧洲垄断资产被并购后被政府拿回是很有意思的供应链信号。
@zephyr_z9 我还是不敢相信 Robotechnik 居然收购了那家欧洲垄断企业……不过我感觉有些现在正被政府拿回去。 即便如此，关键瓶颈资产都能在并购里被悄悄买走，这一点真的很有意思，绝对是个巨大盲点。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I still can’t believe Robotechnik managed to acquire that European monopoly… think some are being taken back by the governments though. Very interesting how even critical chokepoints slip by from acquisitions and it’s a massive blind spot for sure https://t.co/ohiJ8q4As8
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认为 SIVE 主要处在 Marvell 生态里。
@GagHendo007 $SIVE 主要还是处在 Marvell 的生态里。 这就已经很关键了！
英文原文
@GagHendo007 $SIVE is mainly Marvell’s ecosystem. This is everything!
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认为用很小的成本就能扰动万亿美元级 AI 建设很有趣。
我还是觉得很有意思：你居然可以用大约 6 亿美元，去扰动一个万亿美元级的西方 AI 建设…… 有人能猜到是哪几家公司吗？
英文原文
I still find it interesting you can disrupt the trillion dollar Western AI Buildout… For a total price tag of ~$600m. Can anyone guess the companies? https://t.co/GvardDu5bN
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认为 DRAM 是一个很好的存储 ETF。
如果你想要存储敞口，$DRAM 这个 ETF 真的很不错。 我平时不太会夸 ETF，但这个确实很扎实。 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% 披露：@roundhill 的朋友们确实联系过我讨论发行事宜，但我不是收钱替它说话（免得你以为这条随机帖子是赞助的，不是的）。 如果你拿不到海外股票，这确实是一个很好的存储敞口 ETF。 我也希望更多机构去做这类 ETF。
英文原文
If you want exposure to memory, $DRAM is a genuinely great ETF. I normally don't praise ETFs, but this is solid. 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% Disclosure: Friends over at @roundhill did reach out about the launch, but I'm not getting paid to say this (just in case you think this random post is sponsored, it's not). Just a genuinely great ETF for memory exposure if you don't have access to foreign stocks. And I’d encourage more institutions to make ETFs like this.