· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $COHR$AAOI$SIVE$JBL$MRVL$NVDA$POET
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.