· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $3105$AVGO$NVDA$MRVL$LITE$COHR
所以这次定增大概是通过发行 4000 万股新股，带来约 9.4% 的稀释，主体是 Win Semi（3105）。 换成别的股票我会很谨慎……但上一次 Win 这么做的时候，$AVGO 买入了 Win Semi 的股份。 而且博通后来成了他们的主力客户。 这次也许会是像 $NVDA 这样的一级客户，考虑到他们最近对 $MRVL、$LITE、$COHR 的投入。 另外还有 3 年持有期。 我之前说过，Win Semi 是光子学、人形机器人和太空（比如 SpaceX）领域的基础性公司，它很可能还会获得另一位一级客户并长期合作。 这很讲究细节，但实际上是偏利好的。
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105). Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi. And Broadcom became their lead customer. Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR. There's also a 3 year holding period. I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term. It's nuanced but actually bullish.