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通过LinkedIn追踪发现$MSFT量子项目的未披露供应商，分析其在量子MBE设备领域的双寡头地位及财务状况。
所以彩蛋来了： $MSFT的Quantum项目似乎是一家未公开披露的超大规模云厂商... 而它秘密地从一家公司采购——根据LinkedIn追踪，这家公司的名称听起来像是和"Prime Ribs"有关。 -> Microsoft Quantum发布了照片 -> 放大左上角并放大 -> Prime Ribs机器验证确认？ 在量子机器的MBE（分子束外延）领域，他们与$VECO形成了双头垄断（可以类比$AXIA在光子学领域的地位，但这是针对量子领域）。 他们今天发布了财报： -> 已经盈利。财报发布后约25倍PE。 -> 资产负债表非常健康 -> 用于周边领域，比如硅光子学（例如Fujitsu的量子点分拆公司） -> IntelliEPI（除$MSFT外）是知名的买家 一些粉丝主动联系我了解这家公司的名字（DD发现功劳不归我）。免责声明：我认为他们的分析很有启发性，并且持有仓位。 -> 全部功劳归于@latent_value7发现了$MSFT的关联 -> 功劳归于@TheSarge_很早就让我注意到了这个名字 提醒一下：尽管我分享这些精彩发现，我不建议任何人根据我的帖子建仓。 我只是很惊讶，有人在X平台上发现了一家超大规模云厂商从前沿量子项目的小型供应商那里秘密采购。
英文原文
So the easter egg: $MSFT Quantum appears to be an undisclosed hyperscaler... That is secretly buying from a company that sounds with Prime Ribs according to LinkedIn tracking. -> Microsoft Quantum posted photos -> Zoom in to top left and magnified -> Prime Ribs machine checks out? It's a duopoly in the MBE space with $VECO for quantum machines (think $AXIA for photonics but for Quantum). They reported earnings today: -> It's profitable. ~25 P/E ratio after ER release. -> Very healthy balance sheet -> Used for adjacents, like silicon photonics (eg. Fujitsu's quantum dot spinoff) -> IntelliEPI (aside from $MSFT) well known buyer Some followers reached out about this name (not taking any credit for DD or finding it). Disclosure: I found their ideas interesting and have positions. -> Full Credit to @latent_value7 finding $MSFT links -> Credit to @TheSarge_ for bringing the name to my attention early on A reminder: Even though I share these cool ideas, I don't recommend anyone take positions based on my posts. I'm just impressed that people on X found that a hyperscaler buying from a tiny company for their frontier quantum program.
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指出美国在InP衬底、人形机器人、高端半导体等领域严重依赖外国供应商，无法自给自足。
这在事实上并不正确，而这正是我们陷入困境的完全相同的原因。 美国完全依赖日本/中国。例如：用于AI光子学的InP（磷化铟）原料/衬底。 美国依赖中国制造人形机器人的机体。 美国通过一些关键瓶颈点依赖俄罗斯/其他对手（不会透露具体名称，因为涉及国家安全风险）。 美国依赖台湾/韩国制造高端半导体。 美国依赖欧洲制造高端机器（$AXIA、$AMSL类型）或特定衬底（$SOI）。 再次强调，供应链是相互关联的。这种观点正是当前政府认为自己掌握了所有牌的精确原因。 请列举一家能够供应AI所需InP衬底足够原材料的美国公司。 请列举一家今天能够完全替代$ASML的美国公司。 你做不到，因为它们还不存在。
英文原文
This is factually not true and this is the exact same reasoning why we're in this mess. US is completely reliant on Japan/China. eg. InP feedstock/substrates for AI with photonics. US is reliant on China for manufacturing bodies of humanoids. US is reliant on Russia/other enemies (won't disclose specific names since it's national security risk) through some niche chokepoints. US is reliant on Taiwan/Korea for high end semiconductors. US is reliant on Europe for high-end machines ( $AXIA, $AMSL type) or specific substrates ( $SOI ). Again, supply chain is interconnected. This type of take is the exact reason why the current administration thought it had all the cards. Name one US company that can supply enough raw feedstock required for InP substrates for AI. Name one US company that can completely replace $ASML today. You can't because they don't exist yet.
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认为设备卖家也会受益，但不像使用这些设备的公司那样能从光子超级周期中获得同等价值。
对，我在研究把反应器改造成 InP epiwafer 相关产线的 $IQE 之后，对这些公司比较熟悉了。 我个人不太喜欢像 $AXIA 或 Oxford 这样的设备卖家。 它们当然会带来明显的营收加速，但它们并不会像真正使用这些设备的公司那样，从光子超级周期里拿到同等价值。 不过因为资本开支周期会带来实际的营收增长，所以这类标的对更偏风险厌恶的对冲基金来说也非常受欢迎。
英文原文
Yep! I'm familiar with them after doing DD on refactoring reactors for inp epiwafers $IQE. Personally not a fan of equipment sellers like $AXIA or Oxford. They have material revenue acceleration, but they don't really derive the same value from the photonics supercycle as the companies that use them do. However, given there is material revenue growth from capex cycles, it's very popular with hedge funds that are more risk-averse.