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博主看好ESMT(3006)，认为其受益于DDR2/3产能瓶颈及盈利激增。
我想布局DDR2/DDR3瓶颈持续带来的机会，于是找到了ESMT (3006)。 这是一家市值25亿美元的无晶圆厂(fabless)公司，拥有力积电(PSMC)的晶圆配额（尤其专注于DDR2）。 上月（7月）净利润为1.095亿美元，年化净利润为13.1亿美元（滚动市盈率1.9倍）。 如果我们回顾追踪传统DRAM价格涨幅期间的月度净利润： 2026年1月：约1600万美元（估算） 2026年2月：约1700万美元 2026年3月：约3100万美元（估算） 2026年4月：约5800万美元 2026年5月：约6000万美元（估算） 2026年6月：约6700万美元（估算） 2026年7月：约1.1亿美元 （估算月份是根据报告的季度总额推断的。7月为公司报告数据） 这种盈利进程让我想起$SNDK式的涨价+盈利拐点（特别是本月发布的报告）。 我预计DDR2/DDR3产能将在2027年全年保持紧张（随着华邦电子等传统玩家退出某些产线如DDR2）。 这并不完全是像其他同行那样的库存清算。当然低成本库存有帮助，但主要驱动力似乎是晶圆成本/供应与传统DRAM平均售价(ASP)之间利差的扩大？ 他们的资产负债表也非常稳健： - 手头现金：约3.959亿美元净现金 - 2.496亿美元库存，1.463亿美元应收账款 而且净利润的增长……是在预期Q3进一步传统DRAM涨价之前。 *披露持有仓位，非财务建议(NFA) 在没有太多评论的情况下早期介入总是有点令人畏惧。想知道是否有人能压力测试这个论点？ 毕竟一家今年仅从1600万美元增长到1亿美元月度净利润的公司（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）。 并且受益于本季度预计的另一波DDR2/DDR3涨价……据Trendforce称DDR2产线可能上涨35-40%，DDR3可能继续上涨。 市场只是不知道这个瓶颈/公司，还是我的研究漏掉了什么？
英文原文
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?
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NVDA需求远超70%，但受限于产能仅能实现70%营收增长。
@JonahLupton $NVDA 表示需求远超 70%。只是他们的产能仅允许实现 70% 的营收增长，这太荒谬了。https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
英文原文
@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%. It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd. https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
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博主认为人工智能行业重新回归。
@StormDirac 我认为人工智能(AI)回来了
英文原文
@StormDirac I think AI is back
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博主对英伟达大幅超预期的营收预测表示震惊并极度看好。
@Yolo365247isme 是的，我对那些预测 genuinely shocked（真心震惊），这就像是营收超出共识约 1030 亿美元 lol。$NVDA 简直是在疯狂印钞，太神了。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme Yeah I'm genuinely shocked at those projections, it's like ~$103B revenue beat above consensus lol. $NVDA is just printing, holy.
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NVDA指引受供应限制，云厂商CapEx上调利好高贝塔供应链。
$NVDA：“我们预计2028财年营收将增长约70%。这是一个受供应限制的展望。” 仅这一句话的重要性可能就超过了刚刚发布的整个业绩超预期？ 疯狂的向上修正：从预期的+43.9%上调至70%。 “随着云行业积压订单现已超过2万亿美元，前五大超大规模云服务商的资本支出预计将在2026年达到近8000亿美元，2027年达到1.3万亿美元。” 2027年达1.3万亿美元。（微软此前6月约为1.2万亿，因此这是上调预测） 是的，供应链中高贝塔部分的增长将会非常喜欢这一点。
英文原文
$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook" That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now? Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%. "With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027" $1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions) Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.
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英伟达财报超预期，指引强劲，AI需求无放缓迹象，超额收益转向供应链。
$NVDA 财报要点(TLDR)： 营收：962.2亿美元 vs. 约921.7亿美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：2.22美元 vs. 2.09-2.10美元（超预期） 数据中心(DC)：890亿美元 vs. 约863亿美元（超预期） 调整后毛利率：75% vs. 75% 超大规模客户(Hyperscaler)营收：487.1亿美元，上季度为430.5亿美元（定制ASIC的增长并未真正阻止该营收加速） 关于指引： 营收：1080亿美元 vs. 约1042亿美元 调整后毛利率：74% vs. 75%（这几乎是唯一的疲软点） 过去4个季度的营收增长确实令人难以置信。 -> 681亿美元 -> 816亿美元 -> 962亿美元（当前） -> 下季度指引：1080亿美元，尽管假设中国数据中心计算营收为零。 有趣的是，英伟达表示其承诺从上一季度的1190亿美元跳升至2790亿美元，主要与未来几年的内存采购有关。所以内存需求会持续飙升。 要点：AI热潮持续不断。英伟达显然处于领先地位，且没有明显的需求放缓迹象。 鉴于英伟达已是5万亿美元+市值的公司，我认为现在的超额收益(alpha)主要来自英伟达的架构/容量决策如何影响供应链的其他环节（例如共封装光学(CPO)、内存、800V电源）。 而不是简单地寻找英伟达自身的定价错误。 无论如何，所有有趣的事情将在几分钟后的财报电话会议中发生。
英文原文
$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.
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CW激光器产能紧缺，$SIVE作为剩余现货供应商受益。
我知道大家都在关注 $NVDA 的财报…… 但你们知道 Landmark 已与美国客户签署为期4年的连续波(CW)协议以确保“充足供应”吗？ 所以现在的格局是： - $LITE（产能耗尽） - $COHR（产能耗尽） - Landmark（产能已锁定） - $AAOI（光模块产能） - $MTSI（尚未量产） - $SMTC（产能有限） 我记得今年早些时候说过，CW激光器将是下一个光学变革，且会被 Nvidia 严重瓶颈化？ 看着这一切上演很有趣，参与者已签署至2030年的长期协议(LTA)（暗示其他玩家可用产能更少）。 这对 $SIVE / Win Semi 的影响非常重大，因为它是少数拥有产能（+ CPO级激光器）的剩余CW现货供应商之一。 让我们看看他们的执行情况。
英文原文
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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博主因DDR技术影响兴奋，无暇关注英伟达财报。
@4intheflames 我对DDR3/DDR2的影响过于兴奋，以至于无暇关注$NVDA的财报或睡觉。
英文原文
@4intheflames I’ve been too excited about DDR3/DDR2 implications to look at $NVDA earnings or sleep.
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DDR2内存Q2/Q3价格大涨指向特定市场信号。
@embgaspbaud 第二季度/第三季度双倍数据速率2(DDR2)内存价格的巨大涨幅指向了这一点 https://t.co/CS770NbwNz
英文原文
@embgaspbaud The enormous Q2/Q3 DDR2 hike pricing points to it https://t.co/CS770NbwNz
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DDR4短缺引发ODM降级设计，老厂退出加剧级联瓶颈。
“级联瓶颈”的概念简直太酷了。由于DDR4供应冲击和成本问题：许多原始设计制造商(ODM)正在从DDR4向下重新设计至DDR3，再至DDR2。但即使是像华邦电子($WIN)这样的老牌厂商也在退出DDR2市场。这使得瓶颈问题更加恶化。
英文原文
The concept of “cascading bottlenecks” is just super cool. Because of DDR4 supply shocks and costs: Lot of ODMs are redesigning downward from DDR4 -> DDR3 -> DDR2. But even the legacy players themselves like Winbond are withdrawing from DDR2. Making the bottleneck even worse
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博主表示仅使用X平台，不使用外部平台。
@Mengmengeth 我不使用外部平台，只用 X！
英文原文
@Mengmengeth I don't use external platforms, only X!
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Saxo Japan 因高需求上线 $SIVE，博主期待其财报及纳斯达克上市。
我很高兴看到这么多人请求交易 $SIVE，以至于 Saxo Japan 特意将其列入交易名单！ 这充分展示了对这家激光公司（Laser Company）的巨大需求。 特别感谢 Saxo。当然，我也对 Sivers 即将发布的财报（Earnings）和计划中的纳斯达克（Nasdaq）上市感到兴奋。
英文原文
I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.
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博主回应指出自己拼写错误，表示犯错难免。
@AheadOfTmrw 我也把 Semtech 拼错了两次，犯错难免。
英文原文
@AheadOfTmrw I also misspelled Semtech 2 times, mistakes happen
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光收发器需求预测从5000万上调至8000-9000万。
@equityclimb1 是的，我错过了这句引言：“行业预测将消耗5000万个光收发器(transceiver)单元。现在我们听到的数字是8000万、9000万个。” https://t.co/WWFP09AP74
英文原文
@equityclimb1 Yeah I missed this quote: "The industry is forecasting 50 million transceiver units to be consumed. Now we are hearing the number 80, 90 million" https://t.co/WWFP09AP74
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SMTC财报大超预期，光模块需求强劲，产能瓶颈凸显，博主虽未持仓但高度赞赏。
回到 $SMTC 的电影：“瓶颈疯狂运转”： 我最喜欢的引用是：“目前可用性比定价更重要”。 在当前光产品市场中： - 已预订的光学订单预计短期内不会流失，这表明他们能很好地转嫁成本上涨。 - 我其实最关心 Semtech 在收购 HieFo 后的连续波(CW)激光产品： Semtech 预计用于收发器的 CW 激光收入将于 FY28 上半年开始。明确表示产能有限。 与激光领导者相比，他们似乎仍大幅落后，但正在为 2027 年的爬坡取得进展。 - 终端接口适配器(TIA)和驱动器解决方案需求依然异常强劲（从 $AAOI 业绩中得到证实）。 继续深化与所有领先超大规模云服务商的合作。 “我们现在正在为每个模块供应商设计”，预计年底前 1.6T FiberEdge（TIA + 驱动器）的市场份额将超过 50%。 关于占据多数市场份额，这是一个非常有力的声明。 - 1.6T FiberEdge 认证比预期提前完成（对可插拔制造商如 AOI 是利好信号） 问：“关于积压订单延伸到 2028 年多久，有什么快速看法？” 答：对于本财年剩余时间的积压订单，我认为我们的目标已全部预订。对于明年，我们可能已完成 70% 以上。 管理层表示当前产能可能不足以应对 2028 财年，尤其是下半年（需求可见度极高） Q2 营收： - 3.419 亿美元 vs. 预期约 3.29 亿美元 - 调整后每股收益(EPS) 0.71 美元 vs. 0.61 美元 Q3 指引最令人兴奋： 4.1 亿美元营收 vs. 预期约 3.6 亿美元 1.05 美元 EPS vs. 0.73 美元 EPS。 是的……看看这漂亮的季度营收拐点。 巨大的业绩超预期，1.6T 爬坡的利好信号很强。我不持有 Semtech，但这些财报太棒了。
英文原文
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
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博主因发现某内存股极具研究价值，放弃关注SMTC及其他今日财报。
在发现一家内存公司有趣到不得不去研究后，我对 $SMTC 以及今天所有的财报都失去了兴趣。
英文原文
Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...
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GFS是27-28年光学重估标的，当前估值低，不建议押注短期。
@jusmentrades 呃，我相当确定 $GFS 是一个 2027-2028 年类型的光学重估故事…… 顺便提一下，他们到 2028 年的远期市盈率约为 11.5 倍，长期为 7.5 倍，所以我不太明白为什么要押注 2026 年 1 个半月的时间框架。 https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
英文原文
@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
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SIVE抛压耗尽，预计财报催化后股价恢复正常。
@HealytheGOATT 股价大幅下跌主要是因为 Bootstrap Europe 从 7 月 3 日到 8 月 18 日左右完成期间，将其持有的 7% 流通股在瑞典市场抛售。与此同时，AI 板块整体下跌、共封装光学(CPO) 延迟的误报以及做空者的时机选择也加剧了跌势。两周前剩余的 165.9 万份认股权证(warrants) 似乎也在市场强势时被抛售。这种抛压(overhang) 已基本耗尽，因此我认为 $SIVE 在出现催化剂（如财报）后将恢复正常。
英文原文
@HealytheGOATT Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion. That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing. There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength. That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).
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展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
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Ayar等巨头选用Sivers激光器，验证其供应链核心地位。
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 好问题，主要是关于 $SIVE 的第三方评论+行动。Ayar 可能对我而言信息量最大，他们从官网供应链板块移除了 $LITE / $MTSI，仅单独展示 Sivers 作为激光器供应商。Ayar 副总裁也称 Sivers 是“赋能我们光学 I/O 解决方案的关键”，这是相当强烈的看多信号。还有 $JBL 在选定 Sivers 后构建了 1.6T LRO（长距光学），这非常罕见，并在一次壁炉对话中炫耀其技术护城河。$GFS 也选择 Sivers 作为参考激光器并在演示文稿中展示。感觉所有领先玩家都在因某种原因推进 Sivers？我假设这些领先公司做了尽职调查(DD)。
英文原文
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD
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看好SIVE获新资质或联合开发机会，因行业正积极寻求合作。
@adiradir734145 我认为市场只需让主厨 $SIVE 继续烹饪。从其他财报来看，大家似乎都在积极接触 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 等厂商以达成协议。因此，Sivers 获得新资质或联合开发的机会似乎相当高。
英文原文
@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.
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博主以调侃语气回应粉丝，提及AXTI股票。
@Partfortynineg1 我帮你搞定了 $AXTI 的安慰，Boobworld Morty。https://t.co/dxToRnjPee
英文原文
@Partfortynineg1 I got you covered with the $AXTI cope boobworld morty. https://t.co/dxToRnjPee
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调侃对方未提及却对SIVE念念不忘。
@areandatard 为什么 $SIVE 在你脑海里“免费居住”（挥之不去），而你甚至都没有提到它？
英文原文
@areandatard Why is $SIVE living rent free in your head when it's not even mentioned
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FAU产能不足或成CPO瓶颈，印证此前对NVDA/TSM供应链的预判。
我知道大家都在关注那些模仿南希·佩洛西的跟单者让 $BE 暴涨 11.83%。或者特朗普…… 但你们知道还有什么很酷的吗？ 共封装光学(CPO) 的 FAU 瓶颈。 我记得今年早些时候说过，FAU/Foci 可能会成为 $TSM / $NVDA CPO 路线图未来的瓶颈…… 这是支持这一观点的媒体评论： “据悉， Largan Precision (3008)、FOCI (3363) 和中国的 TFC 已进入 $NVDA FAU 供应链” “基于今年预计出货的 20,000 台 Spectrum-X 系统，这些系统中安装的光引擎将需要大约 60 万至 70 万个 FAU” “2027 年，需求预计将达到数百万台，而现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求。”（联合报，中文翻译为英文有点偏差） 咳咳，“现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求” 现在有点早，因为大规模生产预计要到 2027 年下半年，但读到这些更新还是很酷。
英文原文
I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.
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AAOI避签LTA以保灵活性，虽显意外但有望借短缺获定价权。
@siflower 不完全是，我认为 $AAOI 表示他们避免签署长期协议(LTA)，以免产能过多绑定单一客户而不得不拒绝其他客户。如果签署了带预付款的长期协议，那么在那种情况下可能就不需要如此大规模的自动取款机(ATM)增发。考虑到 $NVDA 的长期协议对 $LITE / $COHR 效果很好，这个决定有点令人惊讶。不过我假设随着时间推移，由于当前激光器/光模块短缺，AOI 会获得更大的定价权。
英文原文
@siflower Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others. If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs. Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR. I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.
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预计D-Day金融攻势公告及美加贸易战升级将加剧市场不确定性。
@Jin_lifeng 我推测是今天稍后公布的D-Day“针对对手发起的史上最大规模金融攻势”公告。随后，特朗普升级与盟友加拿大的贸易战，情况并未好转。市场不喜欢不确定性。
英文原文
@Jin_lifeng I'd assume it's the D-Day "greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary" announcement later today. Then Trump escalating a trade war with our friend Canada doesn't make things much better. Markets don't appreciate uncertainty.
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英伟达投资Nebius后，NBIS获Groq3 LPX优先量产权。
$NVDA，继其$200亿交易后……宣布Groq3 LPX现已全面投产。 $NBIS 通过 Nebius token factory 成为首个采用者。 - 在运行 Gemma 4 31B 的 Artificial Analysis 基准测试中，达到 3,400 tok/s，支持 10 万 token 上下文 - 响应速度比最近的替代品快 4 倍 引起我注意的是……英伟达对 Nebius 投资$20 亿后的一份旧新闻稿。 其中提到将支持其“早期采用英伟达最新一代”架构。 看来我们在这里看到了这种特殊待遇。
英文原文
$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.
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调侃特朗普可能在中期选举时再次炒作市场。
@awodias 我想，每当特朗普想要再次开始吹嘘市场时。也许是中期选举？ https://t.co/rtKc3KBAmC
英文原文
@awodias Whenever Trump wants to start bull posting markets again I guess. Maybe midterms? https://t.co/rtKc3KBAmC
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博主质疑对加拿大打贸易战，认为应聚焦伊朗，并提及特朗普关税政策。
兄弟，我们为什么要跟那只名叫加拿大的友好金毛犬打贸易战呢？ 我们今天不应该把注意力集中在伊朗身上吗？ 特朗普：宣布从2027年起对汽车、汽车零部件和钢铁征收50%的关税。 https://t.co/40SbPDPMFC
英文原文
Bro why are we fighting a Trade War with our friendly Golden Retriever named Canada. Shouldn't we be focusing on Iran today? Trump: Announces 50% Tariffs On Cars, Automotive Parts, and Steel From 2027. https://t.co/40SbPDPMFC
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小鹏拆分机器人部门融资，人形机器人及物理AI领域融资热潮兴起。
$XPEV 拆分其机器人部门，并以超过 63 亿美元的估值融资逾 9 亿美元。 此前，Unitree 已完成首次公开募股(IPO)，目前市值约为 350-360 亿美元。 此外，还有由 $NVDA / $AMZN 支持的 Agility，其投前估值为 25 亿美元。我认为，Agility 在商业化方面实际上比小鹏汽车走得更远。 无论如何，人形机器人 + 物理人工智能(Physical AI)领域的融资正在真正起飞。
英文原文
$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.