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博主澄清持股规模，看好SIVE在光学变革中的潜力及IPO前景。
@THEBONDINVESTO 我目前持有百万级别的股份，所以不太明白这些指控是怎么回事。鉴于我相信 $SIVE 是下一次光学变革（Optical Shift）中最重要的激光公司之一……并且通过知识产权（IP）收购拥有巨大的总可服务市场（TAM）扩张潜力。纳斯达克上市即将到来。
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@THEBONDINVESTO I currently hold shares in the million range, so not quite sure what’s with these accusations. Since I believe $SIVE is one of the most important laser companies in the next optical shift… and has immense TAM expansion potential with IP acquisition. Nasdaq listing is coming
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承受波动性是区分专业投资者与普通人的关键。
@MichaelMartocci 恭喜，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和存储芯片的上涨简直封神(goated)。 是的，我认为能够承受波动性(volatility)才是区分投资者与普通人的关键。
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@MichaelMartocci Congrats, the SK Hynix + memory rise was goated. Yeah, I think the ability to stomach volatility is what separates investors from the rest.
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看好Agility估值，因SPAC机制差异决定不等待。
@kapo52277 @neruda_de Agility 的投前估值约为 39 亿美元，这本身就已经很有吸引力了。 并非所有 SPAC(特殊目的收购公司) 都像 $BRUN 那样运作，这也是我个人不打算等待的原因。
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@kapo52277 @neruda_de Agility is ~$3.9B premoney valuation, which is compelling to me as is. Not all SPACs work that way as seen with $BRUN, which is why I’m personally not waiting.
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博主看好人形机器人主题，正积极增持 Agility Robotics。
@neruda_de 不，我目前个人正试图尽可能多地持有 Agility Robotics 的股份。 因为我认为人形机器人(Humanoids)是继太空/人工智能(AI)之后的下一个重大主题。 我认为，过去对糟糕的 SPAC 名称产生的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)不会动摇我持有美国人形机器人领域领军企业的决心。
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@neruda_de No, I’m personally trying to own as much % of Agility Robotics as possible right now. Since I see Humanoids is as next major theme following space/AI. Don’t think historical PTSD with bad SPAC names will sway me from owning one of the US humanoid leaders.
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对比散户恐慌与博主对关键瓶颈的长期持有观点
这么说吧：散户认为30-60%的跌幅是“接飞刀”，认为套牢者永远无法回本。看到波动的技术分析图表和人们将关键瓶颈比作网络迷因后，他们最终恐慌性抛售。而我将其视为对以下领域的长期持有：- 下一个
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Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next
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通过农场估值差异类比，说明相对估值信号及定价预期。
@0xResurge 假设你有一家估值为 45 美元的牛油果农场。隔壁的牛油果农场以 130 美元的价格被收购。而行业龙头的估值高达 2000 美元。这只是一个信号，表明你的牛油果农场可能被相对低估，或者其价格已经反映了（预期）。
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@0xResurge Let's say you have a avocado farm that's valued at $45. The avocado farm next to you gets bought for $130. And the avocado farm leader is valued at $2000. It's just a signal that your avocado farm might be relatively undervalued or where the avocado farm might be priced in the
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Spacemob表现不及瓶颈组，主因机会成本，但长期看好ASTS。
@lucas_SPACs 不知道，Spacemob 在过去一年里相比瓶颈兄弟团(bottleneck bros)表现不太理想。我认为这主要是机会成本的问题，即使我长期看好 $ASTS。https://t.co/UQZQcpXkN2
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@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros. I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term. https://t.co/UQZQcpXkN2
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建议通过合作伙伴JBL的LRO认证进度来映射SIVE的业务进展。
@Emre07465060084 对于这种与 $SIVE 相关的映射，查看其合作伙伴及其时间表是个好主意。 - $JBL 通过摩根大通(JPM)壁炉边访谈确认，他们在 1.6T 长距光模块(LRO)方面拥有相对显著的护城河，并且正在进行的资格认证将在未来 1-4 个月内完成（2 个月前）。所以应该是 https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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蓝色起源高估值融资利好太空股相对估值锚定
据《纽约时报》报道，蓝色起源(Blue Origin)正以1300亿美元估值融资100亿美元。对于$RKLB、$ASTS及其他太空概念股而言，这在相对估值锚定方面似乎相当积极。如果SpaceX和蓝色起源能确立如此高的估值。
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Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations. https://t.co/04W7phuIwr
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博主调侃称将切断与比利时贸易，导致巧克力断供。
@zjcwebster 我预测我们接下来会切断与比利时的贸易。所有的巧克力都没了。https://t.co/y4CDTx5ZcT
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@zjcwebster My prediction is we’re going to cut off trade with Belgium next. There goes all the chocolates. https://t.co/y4CDTx5ZcT
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西班牙资源可缓解美国对中国稀土依赖
@AlienMShroom 西班牙拥有美国所需的锂、钨和其他稀土元素。而中国恰好对这些实施出口管制……美国需要尽可能多的合作伙伴。
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@AlienMShroom Spain has lithium, tungsten, and other rare earths America needs. That China happens to be export controlling…The US needs all the partners it can keep.
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博主对特朗普威胁切断与西班牙贸易的言论表示困惑。
特朗普：“西班牙是北约一个糟糕的伙伴。他们不参与，也不付款。切断与西班牙的所有贸易。” 说实话，我现在完全不知道发生了什么…… https://t.co/F1n0m6gcPa
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Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate. They don't pay. Cut off all trade with Spain” Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore… https://t.co/F1n0m6gcPa
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博主认为存储和AI股基本面强劲，当前下跌仅为去杠杆导致的短期波动。
@QiIris96081 我的意思是，鉴于它们拥有巨额的营业利润/增长，我对存储和AI概念股能够复苏相当有信心。 我认为基本面没有任何问题，尤其是在三星财报之后。 目前只是经历了一场相当剧烈的去杠杆/利润率级联反应。
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@QiIris96081 I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have. I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings. Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now
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博主转发指出韩国投资者已在首周清仓。
@zephyr_z9 韩国人已经在第一周就完全清仓了。https://t.co/DNIx7q2kW8
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@zephyr_z9 Koreans already fully liquidated a week in. https://t.co/DNIx7q2kW8
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特朗普称与伊协议终结，市场波动加剧。
特朗普：与伊朗的“谅解备忘录”“已经终结”。 特朗普在北约峰会上表示：“跟他们打交道纯属浪费时间。” 市场总是充满刺激的时刻。 https://t.co/S3UisD75Kc
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Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over” “It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit. Always an exciting time with markets. https://t.co/S3UisD75Kc
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中国激光雷达若被禁，美企及上游光学商或受益，但博主质疑其实际影响。
@jey0316 基本上： > 主要中国激光雷达(LiDAR)厂商可能在西方被禁。 > $OUST、$AEVA 等通过填补真空受益。 > 为西方激光雷达厂商（如 Aeva）提供动力的光学厂商也因收入增加而受益。 鉴于此，我不确定这则新闻是否真的重要
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@jey0316 Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given
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禾赛遭美审查，西方激光雷达厂商因竞争减少而受益。
中国激光雷达制造商禾赛科技（Hesai Technology）因其与 $NVDA 的扩大合作及激光雷达传感器业务，正面临美国方面的国家安全审查。对于 $OUST、$AEVA 及西方激光雷达同行而言，若竞争对手因监管被清退，这总体上是利好消息。鉴于此前已有警告称：传感器可能 https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
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Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
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博主指出彭博社多次引发市场崩盘。
@stocks4545 这不是彭博社(Bloomberg)第一次导致市场崩盘 https://t.co/C2pDgEAqOV
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@stocks4545 This is not the first time Bloomberg crashed the markets https://t.co/C2pDgEAqOV
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Meta 在市场崩盘后通过强调算力需求进行危机公关。
彭博社和 $META 正在做损害控制，此前他们因“Meta 计算”的叙事框架导致市场崩盘： 发言人：“Meta 仍然渴望更多的算力。 它仍在推进昂贵的新数据中心计划，并最近签署了重大计算协议 https://t.co/gJ0Uie0Dr5”
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Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing: Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals https://t.co/gJ0Uie0Dr5
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调侃欧洲忙于监管空调，未关注中美人形机器人竞赛。
@EidolonResearch 欧洲正忙着研究如何监管空调。我认为人们在美国/中国的人形机器人竞赛中并没有考虑到它们。
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@EidolonResearch Europe's too busy figuring out how to regulate air conditioners. I don't think people considered them in the US/China humanoid race.
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看好埃隆推动美国机器人产业重回第一，个人持有CCXI。
@stockshop199020 基本上就是埃隆。- 他和 $SPCX 是美国在太空领域领先的主要原因。- $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时在时间框架上会出错，但方向是对的，所以我很确信他能再次让美国机器人产业重回第一。我个人持有 $CCXI。
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@stockshop199020 Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI
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引用官方报告，警示中国机器人技术进展构成国家安全威胁。
@WillD1373212821 是的？如果不是，它就不会构成国家安全威胁。 国土安全部网络安全委员会： “中国在机器人(robots)领域的进步速度令人担忧，美国政府应制定协调的政策和战略来应对中国企业的……”
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@WillD1373212821 Yes? If it weren't, it wouldn't be a national security threat. Cybersecurity Committee Dpt of. Homeland Security: "China's speed of advancement in humanoid robots is alarming, and the US government should formulate coordinated policies and strategies to counter Chinese firms' https://t.co/6zeVEJ6C0Q
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中美人形机器人产量差距巨大，呼吁美企追赶及政府补贴。
美国为何如此落后？ 新华社：中国的人形机器人(Humanoid Robots)产量预计今年将突破10万台。 即便摩根士丹利最初对2026年的预测也仅为1.4万台…… 真的需要埃隆的 $TSLA、$CCXI (Agility)、Apptronik 和 Figure 迎头赶上。并且需要更多的美国政府补贴给 https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
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How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
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吐槽技术分析师无视基本面，盲目依赖图表和付费信号。
@SBluelink 想象一下你每次发帖。都会有一个技术分析师(TA)兄弟发一张图表说： - 但我的 $IREN ABC 趋势显示它会通过 $60 亿 自动取款机(ATM) 发行 涨到 $125。 - 或者如果股价下跌，有人引用你的帖子说“早该听我 $40 付费的 XYZ 图表了”。 或者如果我发一个
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@SBluelink Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about: - b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM. - or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts" Or if I post a
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博主惊叹 $SIVEF 出现特殊看涨K线，预示重大行情。
@EUlmsten 哇，传说中的“金蛋龙”K线在 $SIVEF 图表上出现了。大事要发生了... https://t.co/V4CL41m5ax
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@EUlmsten wow the mythical golden egg dragon candle was spotted over the $SIVEF chart. Something big is coming... https://t.co/V4CL41m5ax
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讽刺某些图表若真准，交易即可获千万倍回报。
@mao_ge_ge 如果那些曲线真的准确，他们完全可以只靠交易自己的曲线就获得1000万%的回报。
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@mao_ge_ge They could just trade on their own swiggly lines and make 10,000,000% returns if it were accurate.
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嘲讽技术分析是抛硬币，指出KOSPI图表无意义。
这就是典型的平均视觉技术分析(TA)爱好者，进行50%对50%的抛硬币式猜测： 如果走势相反，他们会说“ABC形态失效”，本该知道的…… 如果他们猜对了抛硬币的结果，就推销他们每月40美元的图表服务。 -> 人们在韩国综合指数(KOSPI)上画的那些波浪线毫无意义，而 https://t.co/lrGHWM8i5J 才是关键。
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This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where https://t.co/lrGHWM8i5J
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博主反驳仅看图表，强调应关注三星等公司的营业利润基本面。
@WLinvestment 这对你来说可能是个新闻，但图表上的波浪线（价格走势）并非基本面。 这与三星/SK海力士的营业利润增长毫无关系 https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg
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@WLinvestment This might be news to you, but swiggly lines on a chart is not fundamentals. And has nothing to do with operating income growth that Samsung/Sk Hynix make https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg
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市场因误导性文章看空Meta算力及NVDA供应链而抛售。
@AlzayakMoh60610 我个人也这么认为。感觉市场在那篇误导性的彭博社关于 $META 算力（Compute）的文章，以及几篇 SemiAnalysis 看空 $NVDA 供应链的帖子发布后，就开始抛售了。因为算法和对“Meta 算力过剩”这一头条的解读，导致资本支出削减并退出。
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@AlzayakMoh60610 I personally think so. It feels like markets started selling off after that misleading Bloomberg $META compute article, and a couple of SemiAnalysis bear posts on $NVDA supply chains. Since algos + headline interpretation of “Meta excess compute” was cutting capex + dropping out
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看好$SIVE，因其作为激光供应商地位稳固且计划上市并购。
@FaceHonor $SIVE 大概是我目前最看好的股票，我不担心短期下跌。 - 你是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模客户供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市。 - 随后将通过并购(M&A)目标来扩大总可服务市场(TAM)。
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@FaceHonor $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion.