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三星成全球最赚钱公司，散户却称AI行情已终结。
@jd_tradez 三星：今日以1.3万亿美元估值成为全球最赚钱的公司。 散户：“AI交易已经结束了”
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@jd_tradez Samsung: becomes most profitable company in the world today at a $1.3T valuation. retail: "The AI trade is over"
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AI半导体板块集体大跌，属非基本面驱动的无差别抛售。
直说了： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 等全都一起崩盘…… 毕竟它们今天至今都跌了 -4% 到 -10%+。 这大概跟个股基本面没什么关系。 这是不分青红皂白的抛售（Indiscriminate selloffs）
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Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from
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博主讽刺散户研报将SpaceX估值至1万亿美元，堪比机构。
Raymond James 对 $SPCX 开启覆盖，给予“强力买入”评级。 给出 $800 的目标价，将 SpaceX 估值约为 ~$10T（1万亿美元）。 无话可说。关于散户撰写“机构”研报的玩笑不攻自破。 https://t.co/B0RojaNJZ
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Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ
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三星业绩超预期却遭市场抛售，反映市场对其涨价可持续性的担忧。
扮演市值1.24万亿美元的三星： > 市场：我们认为你们无法继续上调存储芯片价格 > 随后将DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）价格上涨20% > 发布财报 > 成为全球最赚钱的公司，超越 $NVDA 和 $AAPL > 营业利润同比增长1803% 市场：抛售三星，股价下跌7%。
英文原文
Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%
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驳斥CPO延迟谣言，看好机构回补META等AI龙头。
我至今见过的最愚蠢的主题性抛售之一： - $META 的计算新闻并不新鲜 - 共封装光学(CPO) 延迟报告 1，已被 $NVDA 驳斥 - 共封装光学(CPO) 延迟报告 2，已被 $NVDA 驳斥 我有高度信心，机构最终会做多他们正在 https://t.co/bhukB0SKoF 抛售的那些股票。
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One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re https://t.co/bhukB0SKoF
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特朗普抨击做空者，称其正在被清算且对赌国家。
特朗普：“有几个做空的人。那些可怜的混蛋们大难临头了。他们正在被清算。那些做空者。我从来不喜欢做空者，因为他们是在对赌国家。” https://t.co/6RW2KuzDoW
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Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble. They’re being wiped out. The short guys. I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”. https://t.co/6RW2KuzDoW
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NBIS 高增长预期后股价长期盘整，引发市场怀疑。
@platochi 是的，$NBIS 在预测 2026 年第四季度财报年度经常性收入(ARR) 高达 70 亿美元后，也经历了约 5 个月痛苦的盘整期。这有时会让你产生怀疑。
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@platochi Yeah, $NBIS also had a painful like 5 months of chopping after they projected something crazy like $7B ARR by Q4 2026 earnings. Makes you doubt sometimes
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回顾 $RDDT 业绩爆发后经历漫长盘整，最终走势符合预期。
@TW_trades_ 之前因 $RDDT 的爆发式季度业绩而焦虑不已，随后却经历了漫长的震荡盘整(chopping)。但很高兴最终走势符合预期。
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@TW_trades_ Was losing my mind over $RDDT's blowout quarter, just to see chopping for the longest time. But glad it played out well.
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Reddit重回200美元，高毛利高增长，此前下跌令人费解。
过去几个月对 $RDDT 来说很糟糕。但很高兴它终于重回 200 美元上方。 Reddit 的表现是： - 营收 6.63 亿美元，毛利率 91.5% - 公认会计准则(GAAP)净利润 2.04 亿美元 - 在 69%+ 增长之后，未来同比(Y/Y)增长 45%+ - 净利润约占营收的 30.7% 看到一家盈利公司遭遇 https://t.co/I4kwI8BOCu 感觉很奇怪。
英文原文
Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200. Reddit was doing: - $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins - $204M GAAP net income - 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth. - Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue Felt very weird to see a profitable company get https://t.co/I4kwI8BOCu
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讽刺私募资本中领投方随意定高估值、跟风者盲目跟投的现象。
@Trace_Cohen 这就是私募资本背后的心理学，很多时候都是这样。领投方设定一个武断的估值，其他人就像金鱼一样蜂拥而入。即使只是一个前 Anthropic 员工带着商业计划书，他们也能设定 10 亿美元以上的估值并成功获得融资。如果有人
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@Trace_Cohen That's how the psychology behind private capital works a lot of times. Lead investors set an arbitrary valuation and everyone else swims in like goldfish. Even if it's one ex-Anthropic with just a pitchdeck, they can just set a $1B+ valuation and still get funding. If someone
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宇树科技无需融资，地缘与稀缺性比私募融资更利于动能。
@amitisinvesting 1. 我认为他们并不迫切需要进行融资。我的观点一半源于地缘政治，另一半源于作为首家纯人形机器人标的的估值稀缺性。在我看来，后者对于维持市场动能可能比私募融资更有价值。宇树科技(Unitree)正在中国寻求上市，而且……
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@amitisinvesting 1. I don't think they're in a dire need for financing. My take is half geopolitical, half valuation scarcity as the first pure play humanoid player. The latter is likely more valuable than private funding in my view for momentum. Unitree was going public in China and there's
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反驳观点，认为人形机器人资本流入创新高，SPAC旨在加速散户入场。
@ThematicTrader 显然并非如此，VC数据显示人形机器人+物理AI的资本流入已达历史新高(ATH)，而25亿美元的估值对于美国领先的人形机器人玩家来说微乎其微。我的看法是，SPAC结构是为了更快的IPO，从而让散户能够接触到美国的人形机器人公司。否则很多...
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@ThematicTrader Clearly not true, capital inflow for humanoid + Physical AI is ATHs from VC data and $2.5B valuations are tiny for the leading US humanoid player. My take is the SPAC structure is used for faster IPO, in terms of giving retail access to US humanoid companies. Otherwise a lot of
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散户受稀缺性心理驱动，高溢价买入Figure及$CCXI。
观察围绕估值锚定+稀缺性的心理很有趣。例如，散户正通过封闭型基金(CEF)买入Figure，其最后估值约390亿美元…… 现在达到1580亿美元，由于它是私企，估值翻了4倍。 然后是敏捷机器人($CCXI)，其商业化范围更广。 是
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It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is
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博主调侃台湾当地媒体对某事反应激烈。
@Frenchie_ 台湾当地媒体对此相当愤怒，哈哈。
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@Frenchie_ Taiwanese local media is pretty furious lol
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NVDA否认Kyber延迟，但亚太股市已因传闻暴跌。
$NVDA 驳斥近期关于 Kyber 延迟的说法：“我们的路线图完好无损”。哈哈，损害已经造成，许多市场（尤其是台湾/日本/韩国）的股票在“报道”后暴跌。
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$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu
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NBIS早盘暴跌后空头言论消失，暗示市场情绪反转。
@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco 是的，$NBIS 早盘的跌幅简直离谱。当时有很多做空者在四处发布看空 Nebius 和 neocloud 模型的观点。现在那些帖子似乎都消失得无影无踪了，哈哈。
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@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco Yep $NBIS early day drawdowns were insane. There were short sellers bear posting Nebius and neocloud models left and right. All of those seem to have vanished together lol
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博主坚定看好SIVE和AAOI，无视机构唱空与延迟。
@blkslymn 我在 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 上也有大量持仓。因机构光子学延迟而遭受回撤，还要看那些唱空帖子，感觉糟透了。 讽刺的是，同一家机构却在底部将其纳入其 ETF。 非财务建议(NFA)，但我对这两只股票未来的走势特别有信心，尽管……
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@blkslymn I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts. Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom. NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the
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博主分享经历大幅回撤，但坚信AI瓶颈股长期跑赢，心态平和。
@ak_dfranco 我也会遭遇大幅回撤，尤其是当市场认为我的投资论点(Thesis)为时过早时。 但我非常有信心，人工智能(AI)的卡脖子/瓶颈(Bottlenecks)相关标的在长期会跑赢大盘并得到验证。所以我很乐意在此期间忍受下跌。 只是沿途分享我的盈亏。
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@ak_dfranco I suffer major drawdowns too, especially if markets think my thesis is early. But I’m very confident that AI chokepoints/bottlenecks names outperform and get validated in the long run. So happy to sit through the drops in the meantime. Just sharing wins and losses along the way
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感谢彭博报道，长期看好光子学、存储、能源及物理AI。
我想特别感谢彭博社关于 $META 算力(compute)的报道。以及那两篇连续看空共封装光学(CPO)延迟的文章。但我认为从主题上看，光子学、存储、能源和物理AI在长期将跑赢大盘。https://t.co/vghsG5H2w5
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I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute. As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays. But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run. https://t.co/vghsG5H2w5
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WULF签190亿DC租赁，利好新云托管板块。
哇，$WULF 今天与 Anthropic 签署了一份价值 190 亿美元的 数据中心(DC) 租赁协议。这很可能对 新云/数据中心托管(Neocloud/Colo) 板块构成非常积极的 顺风(tailwind)。
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Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us
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讽刺媒体对散户和机构相同行为的双重标准。
散户：买入存储、光通信、上游半导体标的。 媒体：“散户泡沫推高AI概念股泡沫”。 做完全相同操作、买完全相同标的的机构： 媒体：“机构通过押注AI服务器机架内部组件赚取创纪录利润”。
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Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names. Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”. Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names: Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”. https://t.co/lWDCl0Sxbe
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AI大模型突破后，机器人产业链将迎来爆发。
@haybee940 是的，随着 OpenAI/Anthropic 的突破，我们终于拥有了“大脑”。 现在是机器人（像波士顿动力 / $CCXI 这样在过去十年里一直做后空翻的）活过来的时候了。
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@haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs. Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.
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博主批评某报告夸大新架构对TAM的负面影响，类比指出其逻辑荒谬。
@VixOver20 他们正在发布愚蠢的耸人听闻的报告。通过采用一种新架构，然后过度推断称整个总可寻址市场(TAM)将下降40-50%。这就像我说OpenAI优化了内存压缩，所以$MU的TAM下降80%一样。
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@VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports. By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%. It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.
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博主认为人形机器人看多逻辑极强，看空者难以反驳。
我觉得任何看空者都很难反驳这个关于人形机器人的看多逻辑。 https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa
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I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case. https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa
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Kelper 因需求增强及AI结构性增长上调 $XFAB 至买入评级。
Kelper 将 $XFAB 评级上调至“买入”，理由如下： - 主要客户 Melexis 的需求“周复一周、日复一日”地增强。 - AI 通过碳化硅(SiC)、氮化镓(GaN) 和光子学技术，为 $XFAB 提供结构性增长动力，抵消汽车行业的周期性波动。 - 像 $SILEX 这样的西方特色晶圆厂稀缺。
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Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX https://t.co/9lhS4fjKXX
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博主重申基本面，确信 $SIVE 方向正确并已建仓。
@softmaxedx 我只是在重申基本面和细微的细节。但我无法控制他人的操作或市场最终的反应。 没有人能100%正确，也随时可能犯错。 但我确信自己在 $SIVE 的方向上是正确的。这也是为什么我投入了资金。
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@softmaxedx I’m just reiterating fundamentals and nuanced details. But I don’t control what others do or how markets ultimately react. Nobody’s right 100% of the time and could always be wrong. But I do have conviction I’m correct directionally with $SIVE. Which is why I have money on the
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博主认为SIVE将成下一个LITE，列举其量产与合作进展。
我个人认为 $SIVE 有望成为下一个 $LITE。 仅在近几个月，我们就看到了： 1. 与 O-Net 的合作推动 ELS 进入大规模生产 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO 大规模生产信号，表明使用 Sivers 的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”。 3. $GFS SCALE 参考设计
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I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference
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质疑市场客观性，建议直接参考英伟达声明而非过度解读。
@j1nv3st 不妨说，我认为市场不再视它们为客观。人们倾向于发布过度延伸的主张，而忽略了细微的技术细节。比如几个月前关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 共封装光学(CPO) 供应链中毫无份额的说法。我个人只是直接听取 $NVDA 的声明，
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@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and
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野村报告指出AXTI/IQE领先，InP衬底及外延片价格大幅上涨。
野村证券的报告引用 $AXTI 和 $IQE 作为领先玩家。 关于平均售价(ASP)更新： - 2英寸磷化铟(InP)衬底价格上涨 42-76% - 3英寸 InP 衬底价格上涨 78% - 2英寸有源层(EML)外延片价格上涨 50-75% - 3英寸连续波(CW)外延片价格上涨 ~40%+ - 中国国内价格较低，如 https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A 所示
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Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A
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看好亚马逊在物理AI转型中的赢家地位及其对机器人产业链的催化作用。
@heyfinlo 是的，$AMZN 看起来是物理 AI（Physical AI）转型中的明确赢家。我认为亚马逊生态系统……与其他谷歌/元宇宙生态系统相比，更可能成为机器人玩家的催化剂。我隐约看到这与 $GOOGL TPU 对 $LITE 等供应商产生的效应存在相似之处。
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@heyfinlo Yep, $AMZN looks like the clear winner in physical AI shift. I think the Amazon ecosystem... is probably going to the catalyst for robotics players compared to others in the Google/Meta ecosystems. I kinda see parallels to the $GOOGL TPU effect on suppliers like $LITE or https://t.co/2Upo1XRLSp