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推测SK海力士CPO供应链涉及Ayar/Celestial及上游SIVE等。
既然大家都在愉快地猜测 $SKHY 共封装光学(CPO) 路线图供应链。 我来猜一下：SK 海力士正在评估 Celestial/Ayar。随后将重点评估第一代部署后的 microLEDs（微发光二极管）。 这两家公司其实已经在这方面工作了一段时间。 - Ayar 出现在 SK 海力士官网上，语境是光 <-> 内存链接。 - Marvell 正积极与 SK 海力士合作定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁拥有 Celestial）。 Celestial/Ayar 也被 SK 海力士链接的 Nature 论文引用，这在技术相关性上提供了一些佐证： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up... 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光 I/O 芯片组），顺便提一下 Stojanovic 是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳，Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想保持篇幅简短。 关于更多上游受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最清晰的受益标的，因为他们很可能同时供应给 Celestial/Ayar。 中介层/封装 IP 层... 人们曾猜测 $POET，但 Marvell 可能在宣布后今年就通过垂直整合将他们淘汰了。 鉴于他们在 Celestial 被收购前就拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如 2023 年展示过硅光中介层） -> AMS Osram（我不持有），看起来他们正在这一领域共同开发，因为他们今年特意指出 HBM <-> 光学对他们来说是一个 TAM（总可服务市场）增长点。 TLDR：我认为 Ayar/Celestial 是 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLEDs 可能在 2029 年左右实现第一代后的商业化。（这纯属猜测） 顺便给量子点粉丝一点甜头，这篇论文引用了它 5 次。
英文原文
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
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博主简短回复称某事已发生。
@iamlilkennedy 已经发生了
英文原文
@iamlilkennedy Already happened
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博主澄清近期流传的伪造截图，呼吁读者核实一手信源。
最近有很多关于我的伪造截图在病毒式传播。有些是为了博取关注而编辑的恶搞帖子，比如引用圣经经文。但有些如“中际旭创获得英伟达NPO订单”或平台外的推广内容则是恶意伪造的。不幸的是，我无法阻止虚假图片的传播。所以请务必核实一手来源。
英文原文
There’s a lot of viral fabricated screenshots of me going around recently. Some are annoying jokes for engagement, like text-edited posts from me citing bible verses. But some like “Innolight secures Nvidia NPO orders” or off platform promotional content are maliciously fabricated. Unfortunately I don’t have the power to prevent false images from circulating. So please make sure to double check primary sources.
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参考宇树和SPCX IPO反应，博主对Anthropic上市持保留态度。
在目睹了机器人和太空板块对宇树科技和 $SPCX IPO 的反应后，我不太确定是否希望 Anthropic 上市…… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
英文原文
After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
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光模块需求极高且供应链严重短缺，认为板块跑输荒谬，看好行业前景。
非常积极。我的观点是，近期光模块板块从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE 的跑输表现简直荒谬。 需求可见性……简直高得愚蠢。 AOI：“即使合并 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目，未来三年（至2029年）仍很难满足客户需求。” Elazr 总经理：“整个光供应链正面临严重短缺。”“短缺将持续到未来几年。” Sivers CEO 对磷化铟(InP)激光器需求失衡的说法相同，预计未来3-5年持续。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他评论可以列举更多。 我们甚至还没触及 1.6T、NPO、共封装光学(CPO)规模化以及光存一体（如 SK Hynix 所示）的拐点。 然而行业已受限于 EML/CW 及 PD/TIA/DSP、收发器等上游组件，随着 CPO 规模化，FAU 等也将成为瓶颈…… 我个人对这一切的发展感到极度舒适，只是有点困惑市场为何不会算未来一两年的账。
英文原文
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
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坚持能力圈原则，不投不懂的领域以规避风险。
@KhalidIshaq85 @EnamelEquity 我的领域知识并不涉及生物技术，所以无法对此发表评论。 对于我不完全理解的主题或公司，我很难建立投资信念。 一旦市场出现回调或下跌，这一点就会显露无遗。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 @EnamelEquity My domain knowledge isn’t really about biotech, so can’t really comment there. It’s hard for me to build conviction around themes or company’s I don’t fully understand. And that really shows if there’s ever a correction or drop.
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博主坚持年初选定的主题持仓，拒绝频繁换股，静待局势明朗。
@EnamelEquity 不，我所有的主题篮子(Thematic Baskets)都是今年早些时候选定的，包括像 $EWY 这样的存储(Storage)和像 $SIVE 这样的共封装光学(CPO)。 最近唯一的一次操作是涉及人形机器人(Humanoids)的 $CCXI，但那只是单次交易。 我只是在等待一切局势明朗，我不喜欢频繁换股(Jumping ship to ship)。
英文原文
@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.
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AI资金回流高流动性板块，半导体供应链多处出现涨价与瓶颈。
我很高兴杠杆交易者们从AI股票撤出，转回高流动性板块和生物科技（如$MRNA），这样我们或许能更快看到复苏。 除此之外，一些要点摘要： - $EWY上涨，主要得益于SK海力士的回购（他们利润太丰厚了），以及三星晶圆代工约10-15%的涨价。 - $SKHY发布共封装光学(CPO)路线图？看来他们在做光子中介层与内存连接的技术，我得深入看看。 这可能会带来更大的潜在市场(TAM)扩张，以及更多供应链受益者（如激光器、光子集成电路(PICs)、封装）。 - $YMTC继长鑫存储(CMXT)成功IPO后，计划下季度寻求IPO。 中国IPO市场正从宇树科技到内存制造商全面爆发。 美国应该采取类似做法，而不是让公司在万亿估值时IPO。 - Tyntek涨停，鉴于光子领域光电二极管需求失衡，其订单可见度已至2028年。 Elazr总经理曾表示整个光学供应链面临严重短缺……我接下来可能会更关注高端光电二极管瓶颈。 - 摩根士丹利预测DDR4在Q3环比涨价50%，2026年Q4涨价10%+。（南亚/2408，旺宏/2344应该很高兴）。 - 据报道，中国推迟对台湾出口锗、石英基材料和钕磁铁的许可。 所以我可能会一边吃杯面一边研究那里的供应链中断问题。 - 高端PCB钻头短缺（仍在持续），凯美(5498)称AI数据中心、服务器和光通信正在推动PCB、HDI和封装基板的需求，同时钨价上涨。 尽管全球五大钻头制造商正在积极扩产，供应仍远低于整体市场需求。 只是最近发现的一些有趣内容，当然$MRNA的事也挺有意思。
英文原文
I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery. Aside from that just some TLDR stuff: - $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes. - $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this. - $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO. The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers. US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already. - Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics. Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next. - MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy). - China reportedly delays clearance from germanium, quartz-based materials, and neodymium magnets To taiwan. So I'll probably have some fun looking into supply chains disruptions there over cup noodles. - High-end PCB drill shortage (still ongoing), Kawei (5498) said AI DCs, servers and optical communications are driving demand for PCBs, HDI and package substrates, while tungsten prices are rising. Though the world's five largest drill manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity, supply remains far below overall market demand Just stuff I found interesting recently, obviously $MRNA stuff is too.
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博主询问谷歌和美满电子是否存在问题。
@200pipss $GOOGL 和 $MRVL 有什么问题吗？
英文原文
@200pipss Is there something wrong with $GOOGL and $MRVL?
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MRVL获GOOGL和AMZN巨额订单，印证其成为万亿市值公司的潜力。
$MRVL 授予 $GOOGL 购买价值 122 亿美元公司股权的期权。 “Marvell-Google 交易涵盖与 TPU 配套使用的广泛技术，包括运行 AI 模型的处理器、管理数据存储以及跨网络传输信息的设备。” 这可能转化为到 2033 年约 1200 亿美元的营收。 Marvell 在完成 Celestial 收购（用于光网络架构采购）后，也与 $AMZN 签订了单独的认股权证。 还记得 Jensen 说 Marvell 将成为下一个万亿美元市值公司的美好时光吗？ 看来 Nvidia 早就知道 Marvell 正通过认股权证“编织”进入所有超大规模云服务商的供应链。
英文原文
$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage and move information across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.
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看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
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AI光通信供应链严重短缺，光子学或重演存储超级周期。
我们从 $LITE、$MTSI、$AAOI 的财报中均看到激光器/TIA/DSP等存在极端的供需失衡... 现在，Elazr 总经理在其投资者大会上表示： 光模块供应仍远远落后于市场需求，预计 AI 光通信供应链（AI optical supply chain）的紧张局面将持续数年。 - “整个供应链都缺货” - “供应仍远远落后于市场需求” - “短缺将持续到未来几年” “无论是 PCB、载板、激光芯片，还是相关封装产能，只要是 AI 供应链环节，几乎全部短缺。” 当需求可见度延伸至数年且供应链存在瓶颈时： 很难不认为光子学（Photonics）正在重演进入 2027 年的存储超级周期。
英文原文
We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.
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宇树科技上市估值533亿，显示人形机器人纯玩需求超预期。
宇树科技(688836)现已上市。在上涨+492.18%后，其估值约为533亿美元。我们终于有了一个主要的人形机器人上市公司基准。作为参考，由$NVDA和$AMZN支持的Agility通过$CCXI预计将于第四季度以25亿美元投前估值上市。$TSLA市值超过1万亿美元，但Optimus被包裹在一个更大的公司内。但我认为宇树科技表明，市场对纯人形机器人玩家的需求比公开市场预期的要大得多……
英文原文
Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.
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AAOI获美国生产溢价且需求旺盛，CPO将推高利润率，强烈看多。
我在罗森布拉特峰会上关于 $AAOI 的 TLDR 笔记： - 预计因在美国生产 800g/1.6T 光模块而获得溢价（对 ASP/利润率非常有利）。 - 桌上有几份长期协议(LTA)，但不想签署以免产能被其他客户（咳咳 $NVDA）锁定。 - 至少已售罄至明年下半年及以后。（高需求可见度，类似 $LITE） - 已拥有 300-400 mW 激光器。 - 预计一旦共封装光学(CPO) 到来，利润率将超过 40%+（可能是重估估值的最重要因素）。 我无法理解任何人看空这家公司……
英文原文
My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...
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博主回复称对方无法律许可进行某项操作。
@Sigurd_Drivenes 我认为他们无论如何都没有法律许可这样做 https://t.co/BFfcCUZl8O
英文原文
@Sigurd_Drivenes Don't think they're legally allowed to anyway https://t.co/BFfcCUZl8O
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博主重申持有HPS.A，看好其变压器及光子业务前景，尽管当前浮亏。
@I_Am_Bloateds 我仍然持有这两家公司的头寸？我持有的标的不应影响你自己的决策。 Transformer（变压器）瓶颈目前正阻碍美国AI基础设施建设，干式和液式（后者情况更极端）的交货期都非常长。$HPS.A 的积压订单同比增长96.9%，鉴于其市场份额…… 我不认为它们会消失。 我很确定我在~170时分享过这个观点，它曾翻倍，但现在回调至240，不过每个人的成本平均价不同吧。 这家比利时公司主要是2028年上半年的CPO（共封装光学）/光子量产受益者。他们与IMEC合作进行的MTP工作，以$NVDA为终端用户处于评估阶段，应该非常有趣。 他们的CHIPS法案MEMS/光子设施也将于2028年下半年投产，800V转换明年应为任何碳化硅(SiC)相关业务带来实质性收入增长。 我亏损-31%，因为我的成本平均价高得多。但它们正接近替换账面价值远高于市值的水平。
英文原文
@I_Am_Bloateds I still have positions in both companies? What I hold shouldn't affect your own decisions. Transformer bottlenecks are stalling the US AI buildout now and lead times are very long for both dry and liquid (which is more extreme). Backlog is +96.9% Y/Y for $HPS.A and given their market share... I don't they're going anywhere. Pretty sure I shared this idea at ~170, it did 2x, but corrected back to 240 now, but cost average is different per person I guess. The Belgian company is primarily H1 2028 as a CPO/photonics volume ramp beneficary. And the work they're doing with MTP with IMEC for $NVDA as an end user in evaluation stage should be very interesting. Their CHIP act facility for MEMS/photonics also comes online H2 2028 too, and 800V transitions should bring them material revenue growth for anything SiC adjacent next year. I'm down -31%, since my cost average is a lot higher. But they're approaching levels where replacement book value is a lot higher than MC.
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对比人形机器人零部件供应商的全球巨头与中国厂商的营收节奏。
@kevs_World02 哈默纳科(Harmonic)/LeaderDrive/舍弗勒(Schaeffler)似乎无处不在。还有一些更小众的零部件供应商，比如 $VPG，可能用于 Optimus/Figure。但我觉得规模差异巨大，因为舍弗勒声称他们正与约45家人形机器人玩家合作。不过，向 Agibot/Unitree 供货的中国供应商可能会率先实现营收，我很快会对该领域做更多研究。
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@kevs_World02 Harmonic/LeaderDrive/Schaeffler seem to be in pretty much everywhere. There's some more niche component suppliers like $VPG for maybe Optimus/Figure. But I think the scale is vastly different since Schaeffler claimed they were wokring with ~45 humanoid players. Chinese suppliers to Agibot/Unitree probably hit revenue first though, I can do more research into that area soon.
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对比CCXI与TSLA机器人应用路径，关注中美自动化竞争。
@HowlStWoofer $CCXI 正优先瞄准商业化，因为他们已进入 $AMZN 和 $MELI 的仓库进行人类自动化作业。我认为 Agility 的机器人无需做出后空翻般的动作来完成配送或包装。亚马逊仓库工人也是如此。这是两种不同的应用场景，我认为波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)在突破机器人能力极限方面是最接近的同行。$TSLA 也瞄准通用目的，但我认为他们目前还难以实现。无论如何，观察美国能否追赶并超越中国将非常有趣。
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@HowlStWoofer $CCXI is targeting commercialization first, since they're in places like $AMZN and $MELI warehouses for human automation. I don't think Agility's Robots need to do backflips to do deliveries or packaging. Same with Amazon warehouse workers. Two different use cases, think Boston Dynamics is the closest peer in terms of breaking limits on what robotics can do. $TSLA is also targeting general purpose, but I don't quite think they can pull that off yet. Regardless, seeing if the US can catch up and leapfrog China will be very interesting.
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宇树科技机器人性能突破，IPO在即，中国领跑硬件竞赛。
OpenAI 的发布让我想起了越南（股市）的闪回。随着每一个新模型，性能都在不断提升……但现在主角是人形机器人。宇树科技(Unitree)宣称其人形机器人： - 现在跑得比尤塞恩·博尔特还快。 - 现在跳得比任何人类都高。 随着其明天 IPO，似乎中国在硬件竞赛中处于领先地位。
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I'm getting Vietnam flashbacks to the launch of OpenAi. Where with every model, it just keeps getting better... but now with hunanoids. Unitree has claimed that their humanoids: - Can now run faster than Usain Bolt. - Can now jump higher than any human. And with their IPO tomorrow, it seems like China is leading the hardware race.
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博主希望AAOI回调至80美元加仓，并看好激光、新云及存储板块2027年需求。
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI 其实是我希望股价能回到 80 美元以便我能加仓的那只股票。 激光相关个股在 2027 年全年的需求可见度（Demand Visibility）简直令人难以置信…… 像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）或像 $SNDK 这样的存储（Memory）概念股也是如此。
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@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
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AI半导体板块分化，光学股复苏节奏各异，预期风险偏好回升将带动反弹。
@pkcapital_ 从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 来看，AI 半导体主题(AI semi theme)正在下跌。高贝塔(higher beta)个股似乎受到的打击最重。从我观察到的光学(optical)个股趋势来看，$LITE / $COHR 恢复最快，其次是规模更大但仍属高贝塔的个股如 $AAOI / $AXTI（恢复了一半）。而像 $SIVE / $POET 这类个股耗时最长。但我认为，当市场风险偏好(risk-on)回升或财报(earnings)推动重新评级(re-ratings)时，会出现更强劲的反弹。
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@pkcapital_ The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.
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博主调侃美国将新增名为“美洲海峡”的领土。
看来我们要迎来“美洲海峡”了，这是美国的新领土... https://t.co/HCQ139Ys4V
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Looks like we're getting the Strait of America, a new US territory... https://t.co/HCQ139Ys4V
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日本企业定价保守，需SNDK或三星引领行业激进提价。
@RancicYaro4064 日本公司试图匹配行业费率，但它们并没有像环比增长 70% 那样激进地提价…… 恕我直言，行业内需要有一家 $SNDK 来引领方向，也许三星可以在这里更激进一些。
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@RancicYaro4064 Japanese companies try to match industry rates, but they don't go out of their way to hike aggressively like 70% Q/Q... There just needs to be a $SNDK in the industry to lead the way imo, maybe Samsung can be more aggresive here
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股价下跌不消除供应链瓶颈，建议关注实质财报而非波动。
@darkseidzz 我不知道该怎么跟人们说……但如果 $SNDK 或村田(Murata) 或 $AXTI 股价下跌，NAND/MLCCs/磷化铟(InP) 的瓶颈并不会消失。 这帮人只看财报发布时的价格波动来判断好坏。 也许看看实际的财报或真正发生的事情会更好……
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@darkseidzz I’m not sure how to tell people this… but the NAND/MLCCs/InP bottleneck doesnt disappear if $SNDK or Murata or $AXTI drops in price. Same group of folks who only look at price volatility on earnings release to see if it’s good or not. Probably better to look at the actual earnings report or what’s actually happening…
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MLCC交货期延长且扩产推迟，AI服务器瓶颈加剧。
所以只是在追踪 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）周期： ComponentNews 将服务器 MLCC 归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews 报道： - 根据 DigiKey 的出货数据，三星（$005930）部分高容量 MLCC 的交货期已达约 40 周。 今年早些时候，更广泛的报道约为 20 周，因此 AI 服务器 MLCC 瓶颈仍在扩大。 - 村田（$6976）6 月约为 24 周。 7 月约为 30 周。现在有些已达约 36 周。 这很有趣： “新产能扩张计划从 2026 年第四季度推迟至 2027 年” 未说明是哪项扩张……也许是村田？但如果产能扩张据报道受阻，短期瓶颈应该会收紧。 交货期是追踪供需失衡的好方法。
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So just tracking the MLCC cycle: ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting: - Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data. Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing. - Murata was ~24 weeks in June. July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks. This was interesting: “The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027” Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term. Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.
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博主幽默地表示将给宠物命名以两家光电半导体公司。
我决定把我的下一只宠物命名为应用光电(Applied Optoelectronics)和西弗斯半导体(Sivers Semiconductors)。
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I've decided to name my next two pets Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors
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博主因无法买A股，通过CCXI布局人形机器人并看好Unitree。
@tRbW6qAUT717891 我无法购买A股，所以我坚持投资美股市场。 通过 $CCXI（由 $NVDA、$AMZN、软银支持）的敏捷性是我个人对机器人(人形机器人)领域的敞口。 但我正在为所有中了 Unitree 股票彩票的人欢呼。
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@tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.
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CCXI预计10月更名Agility，官方确认为Q4。
@AZAAC6 $CCXI 的名称最早将在10月左右更改为 Agility。所以大概是从现在起两个月后。 官方说法是第四季度。
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@AZAAC6 $CCXI name changes into Agility sometime in October at the earliest. So maybe 2 months from now. Officially it's Q4.
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描述某标的日内多次熔断及无上限波动，调侃行情刺激。
@DeepValueBagger 看来出现了+30%的熔断（Circuit Breaker）触发10分钟停牌。随后又出现了60%的熔断（从开盘价计算）触发10分钟停牌。在60%的波动之后，似乎没有上限了。今天应该会很有趣。
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@DeepValueBagger Apparently there's some +30% breaker -> 10m halt. Then some 60% breaker -> 10m halt. (from opening price). Then no ceiling after the 60% movement. Should be a fun day.
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博主转发推文，未提供具体观点。
@Market_Nick_ https://t.co/JRGPd8eyep
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@Market_Nick_ https://t.co/JRGPd8eyep