全部推文
共 6749 条 · 第 79 / 225 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
说 6B ATM 的运作逻辑已经证明了一切。
@nickthehodler 这背后就是一个 60 亿美元 ATM 被打印出来并卖到公开市场的运作逻辑。 $NBIS 61%+ 的表现和 $IREN 年内 -8% 的差距已经证明了一切。
英文原文
@nickthehodler It's backed by the logic of how a $6,000,000,000 ATM that gets printed and sold into the open market works. The performance disparity between 61%+ with $NBIS and -8% YTD with $IREN is proof of it.
-
说没有融资就不可能变现 4GW+ 容量。
对，我真的不明白，他们在没有融资的情况下，根本不可能把 4GW+ 产能变现。 而他们却选择了 ATM，而不是像 $NBIS 那样用可转债 + $NVDA 投资。 大多数人都不理解稀释的结构机制，所以才会盲目地买进一个 60 亿美元、往公开市场狂印钱的机器。 如果他们当初听我的，大家的组合本来能从 $NBIS 涨 60%+，而不是被 $IREN 拖到 -8%+。
英文原文
Yeah, I genuinely don't understand, there's 0 chance they can monetize 4GW+ capacity without financing. And they chose ATMs over convertible notes + $NVDA investment like $NBIS. Majority of people don't understand structural mechanics of dilution, which is why they keep blindly buying into a $6B money printer sold into the open market. People's portfolios would have been up 60%+ from $NBIS instead of down -8%+ from $IREN if they listened.
-
建议先做税务收割，再长期持有真正能升值的资产。
@NieMehrKrieg 有时候，最好的做法就是先做税务收割，然后长期持有一个真的可能升值的资产。 现在的持有者，不过就是 $IREN 60 亿美元 ATM 的退出流动性而已。那个社区还会尽力鼓励别人跟着一起抱着不放。
英文原文
@NieMehrKrieg Sometimes it's best to just tax harvest and long an asset that might actually appreciate in value. Current holders are just exit liquidity for $IREN $6,000,000,000 ATM. And the community tries their best to encourage others to baghold with them.
-
用 IREN 和 NBIS 的年内表现对比说明 ATM 稀释伤害。
$IREN 年内 -7.9% 是有原因的。 而 $NBIS 年内 +61.1% 也是有原因的。 买进一个 60 亿美元 ATM 的幻想程度真是离谱。 即便到了现在，IREN 的 AMC 被套者还是不肯承认自己错了吗？ 市场是最强的真理裁判，而 Nebius 和 Iren 之间巨大的业绩差异已经说明了一切。 我之前就说过，$IREN 的市值还会继续上升，但持股人的股权价值会下降。 这就是 ATM 的运作方式。过度 ATM 对现有股东不是增厚，而是稀释。 最好先让所有现有套牢者被洗掉，然后等 ATM 结束之后再去做多。
英文原文
There's a reason $IREN is down -7.9% YTD. While $NBIS is up 61.1% YTD. The amount of delusion buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM is unreal. Even after this, IREN AMC bagholders still can't admit they're wrong? Markets are the biggest arbiter of truth, and massive performance difference between Nebius and Iren is telling. As I said before, the marketcap for $IREN will keep going up, but people's share values will decrease. That's how ATMs work. Excessive ATMs are not accretive to current shareholders. It's better to let all existing bagholders get wiped out first, then go long after the ATM is finished.
-
说直接供货 hyperscaler 的公司通常不会低于 10 亿市值。
@fabiorbb 你自己去判断吧。我们就说，直接供货 hyperscaler 的公司，通常不会在前沿供应链里还低于 10 亿美元市值。
英文原文
@fabiorbb Up to you to figure out. Let’s just say companies that supply directly to hyperscalers usually don’t trade below $1B MC in frontier supply chains.
-
说先发现 MSFT 是 ALRIB 的隐藏客户很关键。
@LeaderInvests 很简单，就是先在整个市场都不知道之前，找到一个朋友发现 $MSFT 是 $ALRIB 的隐藏 hyperscaler 客户。
英文原文
@LeaderInvests It’s as simple as finding a friend who figures out $MSFT is the hidden hyperscaler customer of $ALRIB before the entire market knows
-
量子点激光投资应优先选择MBE设备供应商如Riber，比下游纯激光公司更早受益于超大规模云厂商资本开支周期。
如果你想交易超大规模云厂商的资格认证周期……以及像QD Laser（TYO: 6613）这样年内涨幅达226%的量子点激光：IMO最安全的方式是在早期就关注他们未披露的MBE机器供应商，如$ALRIB。然后当他们从资格认证阶段转向批量订单时，再转向纯激光公司。我之前提到过，$MSFT量子的Riber未披露的超大规模云厂商客户。但QD Laser（越来越受欢迎）在量子点项目上也严重依赖Riber。我不看好进入批量生产阶段（比如$AIXA对比实际的批量生产商），因为设备厂商无法捕获下游收入。但如果你想从资本开支研发周期中获益……比如QD Laser吸收资本开支成本（支付给Riber）来建设产能，$ALRIB、$ASML、$AIXA这类公司的财务数据通常会更早反映在资产负债表上，所以你不需要等2-3年才看到生产订单。
英文原文
If you want to trade hyperscaler qualification cycles… And quantum dot like QD Laser (TYO: 6613) up 226% YTD: IMO safest way to do it are their unknown MBE machine suppliers like $ALRIB early on. Then pivot to pure play lasers later when they move from qualification -> volume orders. I mentioned earlier $MSFT quantum was Riber’s undisclosed hyperscaler customer. But QD laser (getting popular) is heavily reliant on Riber too for their quantum dot program. I’m not a fan when it comes time to volume production (eg. $AIXA vs the actual volume producers) since machines don’t capture downstream revenue. But if you want to benefit from capex R&D cycles… eg. QD Laser absorbing capex costs (paying Riber) to build capacity $ALRIB, $ASML, $AIXA type companies usually hits the balance sheet much earlier so you don’t need to wait 2-3 years for production orders.
-
担心味之素被激进股东逼涨 ABF 价格。
天啊，我真的希望 Ajinomoto 不要向这些激进股东让步。 WSJ 终于把旧消息翻出来了： “Palliser 入股 Ajinomoto，要求 ABF 价格上涨 30%+”（这是个关键卡点） 是的，我也对 $AXTI 做过类似的事……但那是美国 / 中国的问题，所以还算可以。 这也是为什么没人去照搬同样的剧本去对日本公司下手。 试图用西方对冲基金的掠夺式涨价来改变日本文化，是不被鼓励的。
英文原文
Holy ****, I really hope Ajinomoto doesn’t give into these activist shareholders. WSJ finally broke older news that: “Palliser Takes Stake in Ajinomoto, Urges 30%+ ABF Price Increase” (major chokepoint) Yeah, I did the same with $AXTI … but that’s US/China so it’s okay. There’s a reason why nobody copied that same playbook for Japanese companies. Trying to change Japanese culture with Western hedge fund predatory price hikes is not encouraged.
-
回顾一年内粉丝、订阅和 YTD 收益暴涨。
老实说……我现在也不知道该怎么形容了？ 一年不到，粉丝从 0 到 15.5 万+，订阅者到 1 万…… 年内收益 900%+…… 靠着 $AAOI 到 $LITE 等 13+ 只个股在 4 个月里实现三位数回报。 你们可以叫我 aura farming 的 Serenity Jin-woo（关于这个话题的最后一帖，我发誓，1 万这个数字看起来就是挺酷的）。 玩笑归玩笑，谢谢大家给我这个机会。我真心希望能给散户社区带来一些改变。 我也已经厌倦了机构收割散户，或者看到 2000 美元以上的付费墙，所以希望能把信息发现 / 综合整理这道鸿沟补起来。
英文原文
Honestly... I don't even know at this point? 0 to 155,000+ followers, 10,000 subscribers... in under a year. 900%+ year to date... Off 13+ individual stocks from $AAOI to $LITE hitting triple digits returns in 4 months. Call me aura farming Serenity Jin-woo (last post about this topic i swear, 10,000 just looks cool). Jokes aside, thanks everyone for this opportunity. I genuinely want to make a difference to the retail community. Getting tired of institutions shafting retail or seeing $2000+ paywalls so hope to bridge the gap in information discovery/synthesis.
-
用 Empresas CMPC 和 Softys 的纸巾业务讲供应链梗。
@MoreyMuse Empresas CMPC 的远期市盈率大约是 7.8 倍。 它的 “Softys” 事业部在拉丁美洲制造纸巾和餐巾纸。 它以解决浴室和墨西哥豆卷饼之间的重大供应链瓶颈而闻名。 https://t.co/bL6Bpb7YvO
英文原文
@MoreyMuse Empresas CMPC trades at ~7.8x fwd p/e. Its "Softys" division manufactures tissue and paper napkins in latin america. It's known for solving the major supply chain bottleneck between the bathroom and chitotle pinto bean burritos. https://t.co/bL6Bpb7YvO
-
说信息发现会吸引注意力，不是发帖的人。
我有这么强吗？ 我觉得大概只是信息综合与发现而已。要是我发一篇关于一家纸巾公司 8 倍市盈率的帖子，没人会在意。 但当 $SIVE 是 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的光源，市值只有大约 4 亿美元…… 而且只交易像 $LWLG 这种更投机名字估值的四分之一…… 而其他像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 之类做 CW DFB 的公司市值都在几十亿美元时…… 最后吸引大家注意力的，是信息本身，而不是发信息的人。
英文原文
am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.
-
简单回复对方的致谢。
是啊，不客气。
英文原文
@Kelvinccccccccc yeah you're welcome
-
认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
-
认为 Sivers 早期被散户主导，但机构正在逐步接手。
有道理，$SIVE 一开始大多是散户持股，但遗憾的是，本地媒体可能因为没理解 Sivers 在未来 CPO 架构中的价值，把一部分人吓跑了。 国际投资者，尤其是美国机构，更能看懂。 大概率会先由一些精品机构进来，等 Sivers 的市值和上市要求达到门槛后，才会逐步转到更大型的机构手里。
英文原文
Makes sense, $SIVE started off as a majority retail owned stock, but unfortunately local media probably scared them off not understanding the value Sivers holds in upcoming CPO architectures. International audiences (especially US institutions) understands. Probably starts off with more boutique firms investing and once Sivers pass the MC + listing requirement, starts changing hands to larger institutions.
-
调侃 AAOI 和 TSEM 的看涨期权本可带来大涨。
@pepemoonboy 你的 $AAOI 看涨期权和 $TSEM 去哪了 😢。那些本来应该会赚得很猛。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Where'd your $AAOI calls and $TSEM go 😢. Those would have printed super hard
-
批评只看技术图形的分析，强调基本面、催化和现金流建模。
那些收 500 美元一个月、只会画线的人，大概是我最烦的存在了……尤其是当他们还会在我的 thesis 帖子下面评论，比如 $AEHR 财报那种。 股价是由基本面和催化推动的。技术分析只是自我实现的占星术；如果 $AMZN 有一笔巨大的采购订单，没人会在乎技术面说的“超买”，真正重要的是把这会带来多少自由现金流，相对于市值要怎么建模。 $IREN 也是一样，居然还有人拿技术图去画它，而市场里明明有 60 亿美元的稀释，图表根本没把这部分算进去。
英文原文
Swiggly line drawers that charge $500 a month are possibly the greatest annoyance to me... Especially when they comment underneath my thesis posts like $AEHR earnings. Stocks move based on fundamentals and catalysts. TA is astrology self-fulfilling prophecies but if $AMZN has a massive purchase order, nobody cares about "overbought" based on TA it's about modeling in how much FCF that brings relative to MC. Same with anyone who tries drawing a TA for $IREN when there's literally $6,000,000,000 in dilution that a chart doesn't account for.
-
说自己已经被多家机构联系，但会保持独立。
@Yolo365247isme @javedmati 哦，我已经被很多分析师机构、PE 机构以及其他一些人联系过了。 别担心，我会保持独立！
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme @javedmati Oh I’ve already been contacted by many analyst firms, p/e firms, and others. Don’t worry I’m staying independent!
-
解释自己不设付费墙，因为信息发现和整合应该是正和的。
很高兴听到这个！我不设付费墙，因为我认为股票和信息的整合 / 发现是正和的。 我希望能打破那种只让机构受益的传统模式： $5000 的分析师报告 -> 机构通过暗池 / 冰山单慢慢吸筹 -> 散户 500% 之后才知道。
英文原文
Glad to hear it! I don’t add paywalls since I believe stocks and information synthesis/discovery is positive sum. Hoping to disrupt that traditional model benefiting institutions only from: $5000 analyst reports -> institutions accumulate through dark pools/iceberg -> retail finds out 500% later.
-
称自己年初至今收益 903%，而且大盘还在下跌。
@anhecdote 我只是在年初至今涨了 903% 而已！更让我意外的是，这还是在指数依然下跌的情况下实现的…… 如果宏观环境更好，收益大概会更高。
英文原文
@anhecdote Just a modest 903% YTD! I’m surprised this is all while the indexes are still down… Would probably be up more in a better macro climate. https://t.co/1gQbvJwg1I
-
回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
-
根据以往先例推测，Win Semi 可能会迎来新的长期客户。
@iamsattam 我引用的是过去的先例：当 Win Semi 宣布定向增发时，$AVGO 成了他们的主力客户。 我的猜测是，他们这次通过这份公告，等于又拿到了一个新的长期客户。
英文原文
@iamsattam I'm citing this as the old precedent on when Win Semi announced private placements, $AVGO became their lead customer. My guess was they just acquired a new long term customer by filing this.
-
猜测英伟达可能买入 Win Semi 股权，市场若解读成利空反而可能误判。
@Sim_Wizard 我的猜测是 $NVDA 可能在买 Win Semi 的股份，结合他们最近在光子学方面的动作和体量来看。 算法 / 市场上的人可能会把这解读成利空然后卖出，但我认为，考虑到 Win Semi 的历史，这其实更偏利好。
英文原文
@Sim_Wizard My guess was $NVDA buying Win Semi stake given their recent history in photonics + size. Algos/people might mistake this as bearish and sell, but I think it's actually bullish given the nuance of Win Semi's history.
-
认为 Win Semi 定增稀释约 9.4%，但结合历史先例和大客户逻辑，整体偏利好。
所以这次定增大概是通过发行 4000 万股新股，带来约 9.4% 的稀释，主体是 Win Semi（3105）。 换成别的股票我会很谨慎……但上一次 Win 这么做的时候，$AVGO 买入了 Win Semi 的股份。 而且博通后来成了他们的主力客户。 这次也许会是像 $NVDA 这样的一级客户，考虑到他们最近对 $MRVL、$LITE、$COHR 的投入。 另外还有 3 年持有期。 我之前说过，Win Semi 是光子学、人形机器人和太空（比如 SpaceX）领域的基础性公司，它很可能还会获得另一位一级客户并长期合作。 这很讲究细节，但实际上是偏利好的。
英文原文
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105). Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi. And Broadcom became their lead customer. Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR. There's also a 3 year holding period. I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term. It's nuanced but actually bullish.
-
把 Sandisk 和 AAOI 的空头当作上涨燃料，认为市场低估了前向增长。
$SNDK 就是为什么你不该信那些以橘子命名的券商 / 研究机构的绝佳例子。 Sandisk 和 $AAOI 的远期盈利压缩得非常厉害。 我认为空头只是这轮上涨的燃料…… 因为做空的人根本不理解前向增长、瓶颈以及 TAM 的极度扩张。
英文原文
$SNDK is a perfect example why you don’t trust firms named after tangerines. Forward earnings compresses extremely hard with Sandisk and $AAOI. My opinion is that shorts are just fuel to the rally… Since people who took the other end of the trade, show a lack of understanding of forward growth, bottlenecks, and extreme TAM expansion.
-
调侃总统在股价下跌时还发文夸 Palantir。
我们的总统真的会在 $PLTR 跌了 16% 的时候发帖吗？ 还写着： “Palantir Technologies（PLTR）已证明自己拥有很强的战争作战能力和装备” 甚至还特意把纳斯达克代码也放在括号里，笑死。
英文原文
Our president is really posting about $PLTR as the stock dropped 16%? Stating: “Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment” Even threw in the Nasdaq ticker in parenthesis for good measure lol. https://t.co/7A4CNcHcd9
-
认为 AAOI 还会继续上行，并会受超大规模客户需求外溢带动。
@TVAFR786 从 30 美元到 150 美元，5 倍回报。你管这叫“套牢”？ 如果你真觉得它高估了，那就去做空试试。 在我看来，它是下一个 $LITE，而且美国很快会拥有最大的 1.6T 容量。 超大规模客户的需求外溢还会大量流向 $AAOI 和 $COHR。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $30 -> $150, 5x return. “Bagholding”. Try shorting it then if you believe it’s overvalued. Imo it’s the next $LITE and has the largest 1.6T capacity in America soon. There’s going to be a ton of hyperscaler demand spillover into $AAOI and $COHR
-
强调自己很早就在讲 AAOI。
@SidkMena 我从 $30 的时候就一直在讲 $AAOI 了？感觉大家其实有好几次机会。
英文原文
@SidkMena I’ve been talking about $AAOI since $30? Feels like people had multiple chances lol
-
称 Sivers 的激光业务被低估，是 Marvell 和 Jabil 的激光供应商。
@yy1625066197303 激光器就是在狂飙，基本上就是这样。我很喜欢 $SIVE 现在得到更多关注，感觉它作为 $MRVL、$JBL 的激光供应商被严重低估了。
英文原文
@yy1625066197303 Lasers go brrr basically, love $SIVE is getting more attention, feels extremely underrated as the $MRVL, $JBL laser supplier
-
提到做空 Sandisk 的人已经亏了 30%。
@gahhhbor 他们做空了 $SNDK，现在已经亏了 30%。不是所有人都真的知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
@gahhhbor They shorted $SNDK and are down 30%. Not all people know what they’re talking about?
-
称 AAOI 强势上涨，市场仍低估了光学公司的需求可见度。
对……我现在状态很猛。 $AAOI +10.65% 在 $LITE 最新的 backlog 报告之后，市场对这类票还是不够看多。 光通信公司的需求可见度一直能延伸到 2029 年以后……
英文原文
Yeah… I’m cooking super hard. $AAOI +10.65% People aren’t bullish enough after the new $LITE backlog report. The demand visibility lasts past 2029 for optical companies… https://t.co/XCh0QUFPUl