· 方法论

批评只看技术图形的分析,强调基本面、催化和现金流建模。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

那些收 500 美元一个月、只会画线的人,大概是我最烦的存在了……尤其是当他们还会在我的 thesis 帖子下面评论,比如 $AEHR 财报那种。 股价是由基本面和催化推动的。技术分析只是自我实现的占星术;如果 $AMZN 有一笔巨大的采购订单,没人会在乎技术面说的“超买”,真正重要的是把这会带来多少自由现金流,相对于市值要怎么建模。 $IREN 也是一样,居然还有人拿技术图去画它,而市场里明明有 60 亿美元的稀释,图表根本没把这部分算进去。

英文原文

Swiggly line drawers that charge $500 a month are possibly the greatest annoyance to me... Especially when they comment underneath my thesis posts like $AEHR earnings. Stocks move based on fundamentals and catalysts. TA is astrology self-fulfilling prophecies but if $AMZN has a massive purchase order, nobody cares about "overbought" based on TA it's about modeling in how much FCF that brings relative to MC. Same with anyone who tries drawing a TA for $IREN when there's literally $6,000,000,000 in dilution that a chart doesn't account for.

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