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认为中东局势如果持续升级，对市场长期不利。
现在大概正在进行美国 / 伊朗的幕后谈判，而特朗普很可能在找退场方案。 但如果局势继续升级（再延长 3 个月左右），而伊朗又通过中国 / 俄罗斯输送补给来扰乱全球能源市场。 我看不出这件事怎么可能在长期上是利多，除非市场过度反应。
英文原文
There’s probably backchannel negotiations right now with US/Iran and Trump is likely looking for an off ramp. But if escalation continues (extended ~3M) with Iran being by funneled supplies by China/Russia to disrupt the global energy markets. I can’t see how this could possibly be bullish long term unless markets overcorrect.
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说更脆弱的也许是某个人的自尊。
@kevinxu 其实更脆弱的，可能是某个人的自尊心…… 所以别指望 Taco Tuesday 这种交易很快就会出现。
英文原文
@kevinxu What's even more fragile might be a specific person's ego... So don't think Taco Tuesday deals are coming anytime soon.
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感谢日本观众，并认为下一轮机构轮动会到 CPO 和外部光源。
向日本观众发出最新科技动态一直都很棒，谢谢你们！ 我觉得机构下一轮的轮动方向（资金会去哪里）可能会是“CPO”和像 $MTSI、古河电工这类公司所做的那种技术的“外部光源”。 不过话说回来，目前个股走势的大头还是受到宏观环境的影响。
英文原文
日本の視聴者に向けて、最新の注目テクノロジーについて発信してくださるのは、いつも本当に素晴らしいですね！ 機関投資家の次のローテーション（資金の向かう先）は、「CPO」や $MTSI 、古河電工などの企業が手掛ける同技術向けの「外部光源」になるのではないかと考えています。 とはいえ、現在の個別銘柄の値動きの多くは、マクロ環境の影響を大きく受けているのも事実です。
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指出美国在InP衬底、人形机器人、高端半导体等领域严重依赖外国供应商，无法自给自足。
这在事实上并不正确，而这正是我们陷入困境的完全相同的原因。 美国完全依赖日本/中国。例如：用于AI光子学的InP（磷化铟）原料/衬底。 美国依赖中国制造人形机器人的机体。 美国通过一些关键瓶颈点依赖俄罗斯/其他对手（不会透露具体名称，因为涉及国家安全风险）。 美国依赖台湾/韩国制造高端半导体。 美国依赖欧洲制造高端机器（$AXIA、$AMSL类型）或特定衬底（$SOI）。 再次强调，供应链是相互关联的。这种观点正是当前政府认为自己掌握了所有牌的精确原因。 请列举一家能够供应AI所需InP衬底足够原材料的美国公司。 请列举一家今天能够完全替代$ASML的美国公司。 你做不到，因为它们还不存在。
英文原文
This is factually not true and this is the exact same reasoning why we're in this mess. US is completely reliant on Japan/China. eg. InP feedstock/substrates for AI with photonics. US is reliant on China for manufacturing bodies of humanoids. US is reliant on Russia/other enemies (won't disclose specific names since it's national security risk) through some niche chokepoints. US is reliant on Taiwan/Korea for high end semiconductors. US is reliant on Europe for high-end machines ( $AXIA, $AMSL type) or specific substrates ( $SOI ). Again, supply chain is interconnected. This type of take is the exact reason why the current administration thought it had all the cards. Name one US company that can supply enough raw feedstock required for InP substrates for AI. Name one US company that can completely replace $ASML today. You can't because they don't exist yet.
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全球供应链高度互联，战争将摧毁从AI到消费电子的产业链，受益者仅是以色列和俄罗斯。
我仍然看多市场（目前85%多头，15%现金/对冲）。即使在战争时期，我预期从$AAOI到$LITE的许多股票仍能跑赢大盘。然而...如今世界高度互联。现任政府可能没有意识到上游供应链的严重性和脆弱性。他们可能看到$AAPL的"美国制造"。或者$TSLA的"美国制造"，但如果你看看特斯拉人形机器人的供应链来源：-> 在中国。执行器(Actuator)材料来自俄罗斯的原料。材料来自加拿大的合作伙伴。-> 对于星链(Starlink)，大量供应链来自台湾稳懋(Win Semi)到韩国的公司。对于OpenAI、私募股权、大型科技公司和其他公司的资金来源：-> 很大一部分来自阿联酋、中东和其他地方（随着油田被炸毁，他们可能需要撤出流动性）。持续数月的美国地面入侵造成的混乱是是非常看跌的。我最初预期的是"震撼与敬畏"，美国宣称胜利，战争冲击被买回。但我不会鼓励美国走向一场旷日持久的战争。这对亚洲伙伴（韩国、日本）或我们在欧洲的盟友都没有好处。战争的主要受益者是：#1：以色列 #2：俄罗斯世界其他地区，包括美国，都被战争拖累。看起来"油价/能源价格上涨对美国有利"：但它摧毁了从$NVDA到$AAPL的超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)所依赖的大量供应链。
英文原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform. However... The World is largely interconnected now. The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains. They might look at $AAPL "Made in America". or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids: -> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada. -> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea. For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from: -> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up. Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish. I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back. But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War. This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either. The main beneficiaries of War are: #1: Israel #2: Russia The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War. It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US": But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
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解释战争对供应链和能源危机的二阶影响被低估了。
你们严重低估了供应链和能源危机的二阶、三阶、四阶影响。 如果伊朗把阿联酋和中东大量油田炸掉并造成扰乱。 那边很多机构主要是在给美国私募、巨头公司等提供资金，他们可能不得不撤资，从 capex 支出到流动性都会引发大范围中断。 这还没算日本、韩国这些亚洲伙伴，它们在石油、LNG、能源等方面并没有美国那么自给自足。 全球经济现在是极度互联的。即便美国没事，供应链也不会没事。 而且你会在流动性、财报和股价上都看到这些影响。
英文原文
This is vastly underestimating second, third, fourth order effects of supply chains and the energy crisis. If Iran blows up a lot of oil fields in UAE and the Middle East and causes disruptions. Lot of institutions over there largely funding US private equities, megacap, and others may have to pull out funding, causing widescale disruptions from capex spend to liquidity. This is also ignoring Asian partners from Japan, KR, that is not as self-sustaining as the US is in regards to oil, LNG, energy, and others. The global economy is extremely interconnected now. Even if the US is fine, the supply chains won't be. And you'll see this showing up in both liquidity, earnings, and stock price.
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虽然看多存储，但宏观和战争会盖过个股表现。
没错，我总体上还是看多存储，因为我觉得需求是结构性的。价格上涨不是结构性的，但未来 $MU 到 SK 海力士的毛利率会一直很高。 不过宏观 / 战争会压过 $EWY 和其他名字。 所以如果有全球能源危机，个股表现也就没那么重要了。
英文原文
No, I'm largely bullish on memory since I think demand is structural. Price hikes are not, but gross margins will be high for $MU to SK Hynix moving forward. However, Macro/War overshadows $EWY and other names. So individual performance won't matter as much if there's a global energy criss.
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对比光通信供应链各玩家对CPO光源业务的直接敞口差异
当然，这更像是直接敞口与市值的对比。 光源环境如下： 头部玩家：Lumentum (550亿美元)、Broadcom (1万亿美元)、Coherent (550亿美元)、Sumitomo (规模庞大) 大型玩家：$AAOI (约80亿美元)、Furukawa (约70亿美元)、$MTSI (约190亿美元) 新兴玩家：$INTC (约2300亿美元+)、$SIVE (2.3亿美元)、Luxnet (17亿美元) 你可以买$AVGO来获得光子学敞口，但因为它规模太大……他们的其他业务部门可能会稀释敞口。 另一方面，如果你看$SIVE，由于规模很小，它几乎是CPO光源升级的纯概念股。 所以我最终选择了最直接的敞口。 很多人对市值(MC)感到不适，所以Furukawa、$MTSI、Sumitomo这类公司可能更受机构分析师青睐。
英文原文
Sure, it's more like direct exposure vs. marketcap. The light source environment looks like this: Leading players: Lumentum ($55B), Broadcom ($1T), Coherent ($55B), Sumitomo (massive) Large Players: $AAOI (~$8B), Furukawa (~$7B), $MTSI (~$19B) Emerging players: $INTC (~$230B+), $SIVE ($230M), Luxnet ($1.7B) You can buy $AVGO for photonics exposure, but because it's so large... their other segments will probably be diluting exposure. On the other hand, if you look at $SIVE, it's almost pure-play to the light source ramp for CPO because it's so small. So I ended up picking the most direct exposure. Lot of people are uncomfortable with MC, so companies like Furukawa, $MTSI, Sumitomo might be more popular with institutional analysts.
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把 AEHR、TSEM、AAOI 分别对应测试、代工和激光供应链。
@mi20483980476 所以这三者其实分属三个不同类别（当然有重叠），我都喜欢。 $AEHR 做测试。 $TSEM 更像是晶圆代工。 $AAOI 则更像是激光 fab -> 设计 -> 组装。 这就是一条供应链。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 So they all sit in three separate categories (with some overlap) and I like all three. $AEHR does testing. $TSEM is more like a foundry then $AAOI is more like laser fab -> design -> assembly It's a supply chain.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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Mirae分析师梳理CPO产业格局，作者认为遗漏上游公司但框架有参考价值
CPO产业格局 Mirae分析师笔记： 横向扩展： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、Innolight DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 纵向扩展： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互联：研发阶段？ CPO测试：「新玩家不断进入」 微透镜/光学系统：「新玩家不断进入」 总结：纵向扩展的CPO即将到来。认为分析师笔记遗漏了一些上游公司名字，并将ELS与光源混为一谈。 但作为高层视角，能看到他们认为的领先玩家还是有参考价值的。
英文原文
CPO Landscape Mirae Analyst Note: Scale-Across: CPO ASIC: $AVGO, $MRVL Optical Transceiver: $COHR, $LITE, Innolight DSP/PAM4: $AVGO, $MRVL Coherent DCI: $CIEN, $NOK OCS Equipment: iPronics, Polatis Optical Cable / Fiber: $GLW, Prysmian, Furukawa HCF: $LITE, OFS DCI Coherent: Ciena, Nokia, Huawei Optical Amplifier: $LITE, $COHR OCS Gateway: KDDI Scale-Up: SiPh Foundry: imec, $GFS, $TSM SiPh Modulator: $NVDA (in-house MRM), $INTC ELS: NTT, Furukawa, $LITE, $COHR THz Interconnect: R&D Stage? CPO Test: "Expanding entry of new players" Micro Lens / Optical Systems: "Expanding entry of new players" TLDR: Scale Up CPO is coming next. Think the analyst note missed a bunch of upstream names and conflated ELS with light source. But it's helpful to see who they think the leading players are as a very high-level view.
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说这取决于接下来会发生什么。
@ParadisLabs 关键还是看接下来会发生什么。 如果你能为一个人做到这件事……下一家世代公司一定会把它自动化 / 商品化，并扩展到全世界。
英文原文
@ParadisLabs It's more about the implications about what's coming next. If you can do it for one person... the next generational company will figure out how to automate/commoditize it and scale it to the rest of the world.
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指出 IREN 高管能增发稀释，拿 SNAP 作对照。
@DamienWong20 $IREN 的高管们其实可以用一种叫 SBC 的东西给自己发更多股份。 看看 $SNAP，员工每年能拿到 10 亿美元以上的奖励，而股价却一直在跌。
英文原文
@DamienWong20 There's something called SBC where $IREN executives can issue more shares to themselves. Take a look at $SNAP, the company awards employees $1B+ every year while stock prices keep dropping.
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看好HIMS与TEM结合布局个性化AI医疗，认为市场潜力巨大
个性化AI医疗很可能是一个巨大的市场。没有人想早死。将 $HIMS 与 $TEM 结合具有巨大潜力。这里有一个GitLab CEO的例子：2023年，Sijbrandij被诊断出骨肉瘤；2024年7月，他宣布癌症复发了，尽管进行了多种治疗；到2024年底，他已经用尽了标准医疗方案的全部选择。没有选择接受死亡，Sijbrandij决定像构建GitLab一样将他的癌症作为一个工程问题来处理。他开始向ChatGPT输入大量的个人医疗数据，包括扫描结果、血液检测结果和组织样本数据。ChatGPT和AI在识别突变后提出了新的靶向治疗方案，然后确定如何攻击这些突变。在此基础上，他申请了未获批准、处于试验阶段的药物并获得了用药。这个方法奏效了。Sijbrandij用AI阻止并扭转了晚期预判。我们已经看到了这个成功案例（ $TEM 明确列为他用于肿瘤批量RNA测序的合作伙伴）。最近也有一个人用AI治愈了自己的狗。如果你能够将 $HIMS（直销医疗分销网络）和 $TEM（个性化测序和AI治疗）结合成一个可扩展的产品，潜力是巨大的（尽管极具挑战性）。全球人口都是潜在市场。这类似于 $AXTI InP（磷化铟）在超大规模数据中心的情况：人们会不惜代价避免死亡（这就是瓶颈）。这只是未来医疗发展方向的一个缩影。
英文原文
Personalized AI medicine will likely be huge. Nobody wants to die early. Combining $HIMS to $TEM has immense potential. Here's just one example with Gitlab's CEO: > In 2023, Sijbrandij was diagnosed with osteosarcoma > In July 2024, he announced the cancer had returned, despite multiple treatments > By late 2024, he had reached the absolute end of standard of care medical options. > Rather than accepting death, Sijbrandij decided to treat his cancer the same way he built GitLab as an engineering problem > He began feeding ChatGPT massive amounts of his personal medical data from scans, blood test results, and tissue sample data. > ChatGPT and AI made novel targeted treatments after identifying mutations, then how to attack them > From there, he applied for unapproved, experimental drug and received it > The approach worked. Sijbrandij managed to stall and turn around a terminal prognosis with AI. We've seen this success story with Gitlab's CEO ( $TEM was explicitly listed the partner he used for the bulk RNA sequencing of his tumor ). As well as someone curing their own dog with AI recently. The potential if you can combine $HIMS (DTC distribution network) and $TEM (Personalized sequencing and AI treatment) into a scalable product is massive (though extremely challenging). The entire human population is the TAM. And similar to the $AXTI InP situation with hyperscalers: People will pay anything to not die (bottleneck). This is just a hint into where the future of healthcare is heading.
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说很多业内高管在关注 SIVE 这样的瓶颈点，接下来几个月值得看。
@TheValueist 是啊，自从我发了最初那篇帖子后，不少行业高管都开始对 $SIVE 感兴趣。 接下来几个月看看这些瓶颈点会怎么演化，会很有意思。
英文原文
@TheValueist Yep, lot of industry executives got interested in $SIVE after I made the original post. Should be interesting to see how these chokepoints plan out over the next few months
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认为上游光源被控住后，MRVL 的光子路线图会被低成本卡住。
大致就是 $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL 这条链。 你只要把上游光源买下来，就能用很低的成本控制 Marvell 的供应链。 他们当然可以绕开，但认证时间和延迟会拖慢路线图。 或者 $MRVL 也可以入股，确保 $SIVE 保持独立。
英文原文
It goes $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL basically. You just buy out the upstream light source and Marvell’s supply chain gets controlled for dirt cheap. They can engineer around it but qualification time and delays roadmap. Or $MRVL can secure a stake to make sure $SIVE remains independent
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承认现金少和历史包袱，但认为独立 cw 激光供应商的价值足以抵消下行。
当然，现金余额低、来自母公司的历史包袱、后续还会有进一步稀释。 Ayar 在做多来源采购，而且更偏向 $LITE。可能还会遇到 Win 的认证问题，以及 CPO 路线图延迟。 但我认为，作为全球少数几家独立 cw 激光供应商之一，它的价值足以抵消这些下行风险。这个身份本身就非常有价值。 如果跌得足够便宜，对冲基金或者像 Broadcom、Marvell 这样的公司，完全可以用很低的价钱把它收购，然后向上游一体化，或者把竞争对手的关键路径卡住。
英文原文
Sure, low cash balance, legacy drag from parent company, further dilution along the way. Ayar multi sourcing and leaning more heavily toward $LITE. Maybe qualification issues with Win. CPO roadmap delays. I do think any downside risk is negated by how valuable being one of the only independent cw laser suppliers in the world. So that itself is really valuable. If it ever drops enough a hedge fund or company like Broadcom or Marvell can just buy it out for pennies and either vertically integrate upstream or chokepoint out competitors.
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用意大利语说 10 亿美元对 Broadcom 来说只是小钱。
@gian1222744 @Ud197601 也许确实很便宜，但比今天的价格高得多。 10 亿美元对 Broadcom 来说只是零钱。
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@gian1222744 @Ud197601 Probabilmente davvero economico ma molto più alto dei prezzi di oggi. 1 miliardo di dollari sono spiccioli per Broadcom.
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认为 Broadcom 可以通过收购光子子公司来切入军工和 CHIPS 相关供应链。
@Ud197601 他们的母公司因为是 CHIPS 法案受益者，而且还和军工承包商合作。 光子学子公司也许会成为可争夺的目标。 而且 $AVGO 也不是什么陌生公司，所以他们完全做得到。
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@Ud197601 Their parent company bc it’s CHIPS act recipient and partners with military contractors. The photonics subsidiary might be fair game. And $AVGO isn’t an unknown company so they can pull it off
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调侃如果竞争对手控制了 MRVL 的 CPO 路线图会更好笑。
@StocksAREnuts 如果有竞争对手以 2.8 亿美元拿下并控制 $MRVL 的 CPO 近端路线图，那会更好笑。
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@StocksAREnuts Would be even funnier if a competitor controlled or delayed $MRVL CPO near term roadmap for $280m.
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说更好的做法是便宜地拿下竞争对手整套技术栈并纵向整合。
@Hiraweb3 或者更好……用很便宜的价格直接拿下竞争对手的整套技术栈。 这样还能更好地做纵向整合。
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@Hiraweb3 Or better yet… own their competitor’s stack for dirt cheap prices. And they can vertically integrate better too.
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承认把 QCOM 搞错了，重复了很多次。
@kishore_sm_7 对，我不知道怎么又把 $QCOM 搞错了，哈哈，抱歉。 我已经这样搞错大概 10 次了，哈哈。
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@kishore_sm_7 Yeah I somehow keep getting $QCOM wrong lol, my bad. I’ve done this like 10 times already haha
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认为 SIVE 太上游，不太会卷进反垄断，Broadcom 可以轻松控制 MRVL 路线图。
@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE 作为激光组件供应商，位置太上游了，所以不会被反垄断问题缠住，这样 Broadcom 就能把这件事做成。 有意思的是，这里其实就是一个瓶颈点，你等于可以在中短期内掌控 $MRVL 的光子学路线图，因为新供应商的认证需要时间。
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@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE is too upstream as a laser component vendor to be caught up in antitrust so @Broadcom can pull it off. But the funny thing is it’s a chokepoint and you’d effectively own $MRVL photonics roadmap near-medium term since qualification of new suppliers takes time.
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设想 Broadcom 收购上游光源后控制 Marvell 短中期光子路线图。
只是一个洗澡时突然冒出来的想法： 像 $AVGO 这样的竞争对手，如果用 2.8 亿美元收购 $MRVL 的上游光源 $SIVE，那会很聪明。 这样你就能控制他们短中期的光子学路线图，连 Celestial 也在你手里。 有点像 $QLCM 当年把 Alphawave 和 OpenLight 生态圈拿下。 已经有不少对冲基金在谈潜在并购机会了。 问了 Gemini，回答还挺好笑。
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Just a shower thought: Would be smart for a competitor like $AVGO to buy $MRVL upstream light source for $280M with $SIVE. Then you control their short-mid term photonics roadmap with Celestial. Kind of like $QLCM did with Alphawave and OpenLight ecosystem. Quite a few hedge funds already talked about potential M&A opportunities. Asked Gemini, response was funny
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说彩虹图对比特币只是自我实现的迷信。
@Real0xJason 彩虹图对比特币来说就像占星术……但大多数散户都信，所以它就成了自我实现的预言。
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@Real0xJason Rainbow charts are astrology for Bitcoin… but majority of retail believes it anyway so it’s a self fulfilling prophecy
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看多 IREN 但担心 60 亿 ATM 的结构性稀释，如果融资完成会重新考虑做多。
基本就是这样。我去年一直看多 $IREN。 但因为那 60 亿美元的 ATM，我现在极度看空，原因是结构性压制。可如果他们真能在稀释老股东之后把这笔钱都融到位。 我会考虑再转回做多。 这纯粹就是稀释带来的市场机制……
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Yes, basically it. I’ve been bullish on $IREN last year. But with the $6B ATM I’m extreme bearish due to structural overhang. But if they manage to raise all that after diluting existing shareholders. I’d consider flipping long again. This is just market mechanics of dilution…
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对 ETH 在 1.6k-2.2k 区间重新转多，但整体市场仍因伊朗局势略偏空。
@halldj00 所以我之前在 3-4 千美元时看空以太坊。现在我又重新看多 $ETH，大概在 1.6 千到 2.2 千美元区间。 不过话说回来，考虑到伊朗紧张局势升级，我对整体市场还是略偏空，而以太坊通常也不是避险资产。
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@halldj00 So I was bearish on Ethereum earlier at $3-4K. I’m actually bullish on $ETH again around $1.6k-2.2k. That said, I’m slightly bearish overall on the market due to escalating Iran tensions, and Ethereum typically isn’t the flight to safety asset.
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说比特币已进入 Rainbow Chart 的“Bitcoin is Dead” 区域，既可能是买点也可能是终结。
市场现在已经进入彩虹图里的“Bitcoin is Dead”区域。 上两次出现在这个位置分别是： - 2022 年 12 月 - 18,650 美元 - 2023 年 9 月 - 25,210 美元 今天：66,666.43 美元 如果比特币继续下跌，这个著名的 Rainbow Chart v2 会不会就此结束？ 尤其它还是一个散户会跟着看的心理性对数回归模型。 还是说这是一个买入机会？ 也许两个答案都是对的。
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Markets are now in: “Bitcoin is Dead” section of the Rainbow Chart. The last two times were: - December 2022 - $18,650 - September 2023 - $25,210 Today: $66,666.43 As Bitcoin drops more, is this the end of the famous Rainbow Chart v2? Especially as a psychological log regression model that retail follows. Or is this a buying opportunity? Could be yes to both.
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建议 IREN 这种票割肉离场，去找没有稀释封顶的更好机会。
@0xInitialAce 对像 $IREN 这种票，认亏离场可能更好。 这样你就能去追那些不会被稀释限制上行空间的更好机会。 这只是我个人的两分钱看法，大家完全可以继续当流动性，去接那 60 亿美元的稀释。
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@0xInitialAce Cutting at a loss might be better with things like $IREN. So you can chase better opportunities that don’t have capped upside from dilution. Just my two cents, people are free to be liquidity and buy into the $6B dilution.
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说人身攻击也不会让 60 亿 ATM 消失。
@FransBakker9812 不好意思告诉你……但编造的人身攻击并不会让那 60 亿美元的 ATM 消失。
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@FransBakker9812 Sorry to break it to you… but made up personal attacks doesn’t make a $6,000,000,000 ATM disappear