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  1. 业绩复盘 $RPI

    复盘 RPI 财报后上涨,并指出 2027 年估值仍有空间。

    thesis 验证正在发生。 $RPI 财报后上涨 44.76%。 Raspberry Pi 在 2027 年大概还有很长的路要走,市盈率可能在 11-13 倍左右。 2026 年大概在 19-22 倍。 在需求大幅跳升、前瞻增长从预期 14% 提高到 58% 的情况下…… Raspberry Pi 已经成了 OpenClaw 首选的、快速加速的 AI 编排硬件。

    英文原文

    Thesis validation in effect. $RPI up 44.76% after earnings. Raspberry Pi likely has a long way to go with some ~11-13x p/e projections for 2027. And ~19-22x for 2026. With a massive surge in demand to 58% fwd growth from 14% expected… Raspberry Pi has become the rapidly accelerating AI orchestration hardware of choice for OpenClaw.

  2. 供应链分析 $POET$SIVE$NVDA$MRVL

    认为 POET 受益,但 SIVE 对 Nvidia 和 Marvell 的 Celestial 更关键。

    @marioyep5 是的,$POET 确实是受益者,但 $SIVE 作为光源,对 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的 Celestial 现在来说非常关键。

    英文原文

    @marioyep5 Yes, $POET is beneficiary but $SIVE is incredibly important to $NVDA and $MRVL Celestial now as the light source. https://t.co/mn3oESTKlw

  3. 供应链分析 $NVDA

    认为 Nvidia 正在强推 CPO 路线图并锁定主要参与者。

    @TheValueist 是啊,$NVDA 真的在强力推动他们的 CPO 架构路线图,而且正在把最大的几家玩家锁进自己的标准里。 我们正在实时看到光子学里下一步会发生什么。

    英文原文

    @TheValueist Yeah $NVDA is really pushing hard on their CPO architectural roadmap and locking in all the biggest players into their standards We’re seeing what’s coming next in photonics real time.

  4. 供应链分析 $SIVE$MRVL$AVGO

    认为 Nvidia 可能更希望 SIVE 保持独立,也可能出现股权收购或被 Broadcom 并购。

    @yuntungshieh 我觉得 Nvidia 可能更希望 $SIVE 保持独立。 所以我们可能会看到 $MRVL、AlChip 对它做股权收购……或者也可能被 $AVGO 收购,用来卡死竞争对手的 CPO 路线图。现在还不确定最后会怎么演。

    英文原文

    @yuntungshieh I think Nvidia would rather have $SIVE stay independent. So we might see some share acquisition from $MRVL, AlChip… or maybe an acquisition by $AVGO to chokepoint their competitors CPO roadmap. Not sure how this plays out.

  5. 供应链分析 $SIVE$AVGO$NVDA$MRVL

    调侃如果 Broadcom 买下 SIVE,就能控制后续多家公司的路线图。

    如果 $AVGO 真的花 3 亿美元买下 $SIVE,那就太可惜了…… 这样一来,它就能从上游光源层面控制 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的近端路线图。 我相信博通肯定不会在想这个……对吧?

    英文原文

    It would be a shame if $AVGO bought $SIVE for $300m… Then controlled the near term roadmap for $NVDA and $MRVL from the upstream light source level. I’m sure Broadcom isn’t thinking about this… right? https://t.co/wrS431DG8n

  6. 供应链分析 $POET$SIVE

    认为 POET 受益巨大,但很多分析师忽略了其光源来自 SIVE。

    @InvestWithFelix 对,$POET 是巨大的受益者。它在 Celestial 体系里更广为人知。 但连分析师都会忽略,Poet 的 ELS 光源其实来自 $SIVE。 不过 Nvidia 对这个生态的验证,对整个链条都很重要。

    英文原文

    @InvestWithFelix Yep $POET is a massive beneficary. It’s more well known with Celestial. Even analysts miss though Poet’s light source for ELS comes from $SIVE. But huge for their whole ecosystem that Nvidia is validating it

  7. 供应链分析 $NVDA$SIVE

    把 Nvidia 备货 EML 产能的历史剧本,类比到下一代光子瓶颈。

    这就是 $NVDA 当年提前锁定全部 EML 产能时的那套剧本,在那之前超大规模客户那边就已经出现了巨大的供给冲击。 这也是为什么我一直在为下一处瓶颈里的 $SIVE 拉响警报。 因为 $NVDA 现在也在下一代架构上做同样的事。

    英文原文

    This is the exact playbook $NVDA did securing all the EML capacity before there was a massive supply shock for the rest of the hyperscalers. That’s why I’ve been sounding the alarm with $SIVE in the next chokepoint. Since $NVDA is doing the same with the next gen architectures.

  8. 供应链分析 $SIVE$NVDA$MRVL$POET

    认为 SIVE 已经进入 Nvidia 路线图,且市值仍很小。

    @degenlurker_ 有意思的是,$SIVE 现在已经被写进 $NVDA 的路线图里了,而市值还只有大约 3 亿美元。 只是现在还没人把 Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell 这种多级关系串起来,虽然 Nvidia 已经砸了 20 亿美元去加速他们的 CPO 路线图了。

    英文原文

    @degenlurker_ It’s funny $SIVE is now baked into $NVDA roadmap now at ~$300M MC. Just no one associates multi hop relations between Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell yet when Nvidia invested $2B into accelerating their CPO roadmap yet.

  9. 供应链分析 $NVDA$MRVL$SIVE

    Nvidia 对 Marvell 的 20 亿美元投资,也验证了 SIVE 的光源位置。

    刚刚消息出来:$NVDA 向 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 这笔交易主要是为了“联合硅光工作”,也验证了 Marvell 和 Celestial AI 的光互连 CPO 路线图。 但……谁在给 $MRVL 的光源供电,这点市场可能漏了?(提示:$SIVE)

    英文原文

    Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL. This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap. But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE) https://t.co/9lqJLIx7nG

  10. 供应链分析 $AXTI$COHR$LITE$MRVL$RPI$SIVE

    以Marvell收购Celestial为例,分析CPO供应链中Sivers作为CW激光器关键瓶颈供应商的巨大TAM扩张潜力。

    看看$MRVL收购Celestial($SIVE是其~2.9亿美元的光源供应商)这个例子就知道了。Marvell以55亿美元收购Celestial(32.5亿美元+22.5亿美元里程碑付款)。2026/2027年预期:零收入,亏损5000万美元。2028年预期:5亿美元收入。2029年预期:10亿美元收入。这是巨大的TAM(市场规模)扩张和收入加速增长。Sivers只是Celestial之上的客户之一,此外还有O-Net、Ayar、其他未公开的CPO(共封装光学)厂商,Jabil负责桥接量产爬坡并赢得良率。那些对光子学毫无理解的散户……正在做的事相当于:因为Celestial在2025、2026年没有CPO收入,就把它建模为5000万美元。因为它目前处于净亏损状态,而不是着眼于2027年之后的大规模爬坡。$SIVE是我抢先布局下一个架构超级周期(位于最早期阶段)的首选标的,涉及ELS TAM扩张+CPO+连续波(CW)激光器瓶颈。如果你想找后期介入的标的,可以看$LITE,它已经涨了3800%。

    英文原文

    Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example. Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones). 2026/2027 expectations: 0 revenue, -$50m loss 2028 expectations: $500m revenue 2029 expectations: $1B revenue. This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration. This is just one of Sivers customer on top of O-Net, Ayar, other undisclosed CPO players, with Jabil bridging volume ramp and Win with yields. Random retail users with no understanding of photonics… are doing the equivalent of modeling Celestial at $50m because of no CPO revenue in 2025 2026. And because it’s operating at a net loss instead of looking at the massive ramp 2027 onward. $SIVE is my #1 pick for frontrunning the next architectural supercycles at the very beginning for ELS TAM expansion + CPO + CW laser chokepoints. If you want a later stage pick, you can look at $LITE that already ran 3800%.

  11. 方法论 $AXTI$LITE$COHR$SIVE$MRVL$RPI

    批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。

    请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI: 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节,这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT,也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈,而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE: 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人,拿毛利率、烧钱速度,以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点,它们 2027 年开始放量,2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司,因为我看的是前瞻增长,而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha: 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样,把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%,结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈,自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的,自有其原因。

    英文原文

    Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.

  12. 方法论 $SIVE

    说自己被质疑,因为 CPO 放量是 2027 年而他们在提前布局。

    @JustinasRoland0 我之前把那人拉黑了,因为他根本不知道自己在说什么。 CPO 的放量是 2027 年,这就是我在提前布局;但还有一堆人还在试图拿新前沿技术(比如 CW 激光)以前的盈利和烧钱速度来建模。

    英文原文

    @JustinasRoland0 Blocked the guy earlier because they have no clue what they're talking about. CPO ramp is 2027, this is frontrunning it, and there's idiots out there still trying to model previous earnings and burn rate of new frontier technologies like CW laser tech.

  13. 杂谈 $RPI

    感谢支持,并表示对外界质疑的情绪只是发泄。

    @futureproof_inv 感谢支持! 越是你比别人更早看到一件事,收到的质疑和嘲讽就越多。 我最近因为 $RPI 这事从自己圈子外的人那里吃了太多烂话,所以这条更像是在发泄。

    英文原文

    @futureproof_inv Thanks for the support! It's always when you're earliest to something that you get the most criticism / doubt. I just got a ton of endless sht over $RPI from everyone outside my follower base, so this is just coming out as a rant.

  14. 业绩复盘 $RPI

    认为自己关于 RPI 的 thesis 被财报验证,媒体和分析师都看错了。

    甚至连普通分析师和记者都把 $RPI 叫成了“meme stock”。 我觉得这就是典型的事后偏差:我身边以外的大多数人都否定了这个 thesis。 不管怎样,财报终于验证了它。58% 的同比增长非常出色,我只是一直憋着这口气等财报出来。

    英文原文

    Even regular analysts called $RPI a "Meme Stock" on top of reporters. Think this is hindsight bias, vast majority of people outside my following dismissed the thesis. Regardless, finally vindicated from earnings. 58% Y/Y growth is phenomenal, just pent up frustration waiting for this report to come out.

  15. 个股论点 $GME$RPI

    批评媒体将$RPI误标为散户股,强调其58%增长修正后的基本面价值。

    @GeneralMarketx FT和其他新闻媒体那些该死的家伙在用虚假标签制造恐慌。说这是$GME的“散户股领地”而非实际基本面。$RPI在58%的增长预估修正后可能会被大幅重新定价上涨。

    英文原文

    @GeneralMarketx Actual ****s over at FT, and other news outlets sparking panic with the false labels. Saying it was $GME "Meme stock territory" over actual fundamentals. $RPI is likely going to be repriced upward a lot after the 58% growth estimate revisions.

  16. 个股论点 $AXTI$SIVE

    认为被叫 meme stock 的标的最后往往成了大公司,SIVE 会是下一个。

    @innovavest 我不知道。所有被散户和媒体贴上“meme stock”标签的我的票,最后都变成了像 $AXTI 这样的十亿美元级公司。 $SIVE 会是下一个,我很有信心。

    英文原文

    @innovavest Idk. All the retail and news "labelled meme stocks" for my picks ended up becoming billion dollar companies like $AXTI. $SIVE is next, have high confidence.

  17. 业绩复盘 $RPI

    说自己正确看到了 RPI 的基本面变化,而外界曾嘲笑它是 meme。

    @QGrowthCap 我就是很烦,X 和社交媒体上所有人都把它叫成“meme stock”。 可我说 $RPI 的基本面在变化,而且我判断对了。 现在他们都闭嘴了,然后才去更新自己对这只 AI fabless 股票的模型,而它当时的前瞻市盈率只有 19 倍。

    英文原文

    @QGrowthCap Just frustrating everyone on X and social media called it a "meme stock" When I called fundamental changes on $RPI and got it right. Now they're all silent, and then just updated their models on an AI fabless stock trading at fwd 19 P/E.

  18. 业绩复盘 $RPI

    强调自己对 RPI 的收入预测被验证,市场随后上修增长预期。

    兄弟,这也太离谱了……大家都在质疑我 $RPI,还叫它 “Meme Stock”?? 我明明预测了 48-55% 的前瞻营收增长,而且是拿基本面支撑的。 可分析师都在说 14-17%,新闻媒体都在喊 “Meme Stock”?? 结果财报后他们把 $RPI 的同比增长预期上调到了 58%。 完全命中,和 $AXTI 一样被验证了。 尤其是我还预测了行业会有 3-4 倍增长。 现在 $RPI 大约是 19 倍到 23.8 倍前瞻市盈率,而收入加速来自 OpenClaw。

    英文原文

    Bruh wtf... Everyone was doubting me on $RPI, calling it a "Meme Stock"??? I literally projected 48-55% forward revenue growth and backed it up with fundamentals. While all the analysts were saying 14-17% and news outlets were saying "Meme Stock"?? And they updated $RPI to 58% projected Y/Y growth after earnings. Spot on and vindicated like $AXTI. Especially when I projected 3-4X industry growth estimates. Now $RPI is at ~19x-23.8x fwd p/e, with revenue acceleration due to OpenClaw.

  19. 业绩复盘 $RPI

    复盘自己最早关于 RPI / OpenClaw 的预测,以及分析师上修后股价反应。

    我最早关于 $RPI 和 OpenClaw 垂直整合的帖子: “但如果需求流入继续,我们可能会看到营收从 14% 增长提高到 48-55% 的温和水平,只要囤货持续。” $RPI 新的分析师预测: 券商把 2026 年 $RPI 的预测从 3.6 亿美元上调到 5.11 亿美元,意味着同比增长 58%。 …… 媒体把我 thesis 里的“meme stock” $RPI,在预测上修后又涨了 27%。

    英文原文

    My original post on $RPI and OpenClaw vertaim: "But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." $RPI New Analyst Projections: The broker raised its 2026 $RPI forecast to $511 million from $360 million, implying 58% year-on-year growth. .... The media labeled "Meme Stock" $RPI from my thesis is up 27% on the projections beat.

  20. 杂谈 $Innolight

    怀疑 Innolight 并不知情,自己只是对这份名单感到困惑。

    @kPkKUB 我不觉得 Innolight 会知道,除非 Mirae 拿到了非公开信息。 这就是为什么我说我对这份名单感到困惑。

    英文原文

    @kPkKUB I don't think Innolight does unless Mirae obtained nonpublic information. That's why I said I was confused by this list.

  21. 个股论点 $SIVE$AVGO$MRVL

    认为若 CPO 在 2026 年下半年到来,自己会继续持有 SIVE。

    为什么每个 ticker 都有人一直问我同一个问题。 如果 CPO 的拐点会在 2026 年下半年到来,那我会继续拿着 $SIVE,因为我是在提前布局下一轮光子学变化。 考虑到它只有 2.8 亿美元市值,$AVGO 明天就能把它的光子业务 / IP 买下来,从而控制 $MRVL 的光子路线图……所以我个人除了稀释之外,几乎看不到多少下行风险。

    英文原文

    Why do people keep asking me this for every single ticker. If CPO inflection is coming in late 2026, I'm holding $SIVE, since I'm frontrunning the next photonics shift. Given it's a $280M MC, $AVGO can just buy their photonics division/IP tomorrow and control $MRVL's photonics roadmap... so I personally don't see much downside risk aside from dilution.

  22. 供应链分析 $VNP$AXTI$COHR

    列出几个关键瓶颈点,认为 VNP 最接近西方版 AXTI。

    是的,我花了很多时间把这个图整理出来。 瓶颈 1:$VNP 可能是西方世界里最接近 $AXTI 的单一瓶颈,但在镓、铟、砷等材料上,它还达不到同样的规模。 瓶颈 2:pBN 坩埚,也许是 Shin-Etsu Chemical? 瓶颈 3:第二层可能是 Sumitomo / $COHR。

    英文原文

    Yep, I spent a lot of time making this on the chart. Chokepoint 1: $VNP is probably the closest you get to $AXTI in the West for one chokepoint, but nothing to the same scale for (gallium, indium, arsenic, etc. ) Chokepoint 2: pBN Crucibles, maybe Shin-Etsu Chemical? Chokepoint 3: Sumitomo / $COHR for the second.

  23. 个股论点 $AXTI

    认为如果 Shkreli 加入董事会,AXTI 可能会是 100 亿美元公司。

    如果 Marin Shkreli 加入 $AXTI 董事会,我觉得它可能会成为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 否则的话,我觉得它在这个位置算是比较合理定价,但我个人还是持有的。 它在光子学上对 AI 行业拥有一个垄断性的瓶颈。问题更多是他们会不会通过提价把这种优势武器化? 考虑到宏观环境,CSP 里卖看跌期权、选低执行价总是个不错的进场方式。

    英文原文

    If Marin Shkreli joined the board of $AXTI, I think it could be a $10B+ company. Otherwise, it's fairly valued I think around these levels, but I'm personally holding. They own a monopolistic chokepoint over the AI industry with photonics. It's more of a matter of they weaponize it or not with price hikes? Given macro climate, entry via CSP is always a good idea at lower strikes.

  24. 方法论 $AXTI$LITE

    用类比解释 AXT 的供应链位置,反驳把不同环节混为一谈的说法。

    我应该不是唯一一个在想这个的人……对吧? 这样的类比能帮助普通人更理解 $AXTI,因为这件事非常复杂。 外面有太多错误信息了,比如说三星新的晶圆代工在和 $AXTI 竞争,或者 $LITE 新的 InP 产能在和 $AXTI 竞争…… 它们都只是供应链的不同环节。 而 AXT 处在整个链条的最上游,上游中的最上游。

    英文原文

    I couldn't have been the only one thinking about it... right? Analogies like these help regulars understand $AXTI more since it's very nuanced. There's just tons of disinformation out there like Samsung's new foundry is competing with $AXTI.. or $LITE new inp capacity competing with $AXTI.. They're all different parts of the supply chain. And AXT is the very very very top of it.

  25. 方法论 $AXTI$LITE$GOOGL

    把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡,强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。

    “AXTI 海峡”来了: 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍,把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方,而不是韩国 / 日本呢? 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈(可以把它想成伊朗先产油,再通过海峡运输出去)。 所以,如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍(但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面,而不是国家经济层面): 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位(以及中国的咽喉地位)。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于,AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力: 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设,在规模化上没有别的选择。

    英文原文

    Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.

  26. 方法论 $MP$USAR

    呼吁先把稀土供应链补齐,不要本末倒置。

    我们能不能……先把稀土供应链搞定,再做别的? 为什么我们能花几十亿美元在迈阿密的玻璃塔楼上? 却不能补贴我们最重要的 AI、机器人和太空上游稀土供应链…… 而这些链条完全依赖中国 / 俄罗斯? 我们连一些最关键瓶颈的国内大规模加工都没有,比如从人形机器人机体到 AI 应用所需的铟 / 锗 / 镓。 只挑几只像 $MP 到 $USAR 这样的票然后说“我们做了点事”,远远不够。 稀土瓶颈是中国给美国埋的一个定时炸弹。 美国的优先级完全搞反了。

    英文原文

    Can we please… just secure our rare earths supply chains first before we do this? How are we able to spend billions on glass towers in Miami? But not subsidize all our most important AI, Robotics, and Space rare earth upstream supply chains… That are entirely dependent on China/Russia? We literally have no domestic processing at scale for some of the most vital chokepoints from Humanoids bodies to indium/germanium/gallium for AI applications. Picking a few like $MP to $USAR and saying “we did something” is not enough. The Rare Earths chokepoint is a ticking time bomb that China set over the US. America has its prioritizes completely wrong

  27. 杂谈

    调侃特朗普会不会再次导致海峡重开和市场剧烈波动。

    “特朗普告诉助手,他愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争” 美国指数已经上涨了,但在实时交易里,KOSPI(-3.55%)和日经(-0.85%)还是跌的。 这就变成了: “全球能源危机” -> 🌮 -> “全球能源危机” -> 🌮。 我觉得现在任何靠公开信息交易的人,都已经不知道发生了什么了……

    英文原文

    “Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" US indexes have shot up ON, but KOSPI (-3.55%) and Nikkei (-.85%) trading live are still down. It goes from: "Global Energy Crisis" -> 🌮 -> "Global Energy Crisis" -> 🌮. I don't think anyone trading with public knowledge knows what's going on anymore...

  28. 方法论 $LASR$LMT$RTX

    主张与其烧昂贵导弹,不如更多投入定向能武器。

    或者……与其把几十亿美元花在“更便宜的导弹”上。 毕竟现在用 300 到 400 万美元的爱国者导弹去打便宜无人机,根本不奏效。 我们是不是该更多研究并部署像 $LASR 和 HPM 这样的定向能武器? 用 HEL(高能激光)的话: 它就是一束光……砰砰。每发 3.5 美元。 用 HPM(高功率微波)的话——它是一道能量锥,用来打无人机蜂群。 也许每次脉冲 0.05 美元左右?弹药基本等于无限。 虽然 $LMT 和 $RTX 也在做这些,但感觉我们只是一直在买昂贵导弹去给它们送钱。 如果把原本花在导弹上的数十亿美元,转去资助这类无限弹药的新技术…… 也许早就能把定向能武器做得更成熟了(比如解决驻留时间、天气变化、射程、功率这些问题)。 在伊朗这种延长冲突里,用几十亿美元的导弹去打便宜无人机,显然不可持续。

    英文原文

    Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles". Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working. We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM? With HEL (High Energy Lasers): It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot. With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms. Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite. Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point. More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles... Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power). Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.

  29. 供应链分析 $MTSI$Luxnet

    表示自己只是做高层分析,不想把整条光子链讲得太细。

    @swisssong 不客气。我觉得大家应该把这份分析当成非常高层次的理解,而不是对整个行业的深度拆解。 我也不太明白 Mirae 怎么漏掉了从 $MTSI 到 Luxnet 这么多名字……

    英文原文

    @swisssong Anytime. I think people should treat the analysis as extremely high level, not a deep dive into the industry. I'm not quite sure how Mirae missed so many names from $MTSI to Luxnet...

  30. 杂谈 $NVDA

    只有两个字:买英伟达看跌。

    @miraclemaster07 $NVDA 看跌期权。

    英文原文

    @miraclemaster07 $NVDA puts