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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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说自己正在回敬那些说 thesis 错了的人。
@Mr_Drone 正在回头打脸那些说我 $AXTI 或 $SIVE thesis 错了的人。
英文原文
@Mr_Drone Victory lapping all the haters who said my $AXTI or $SIVE thesis was wrong
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认为 SOI 近似 POET，风险不大。
@Berlinergy @ryansfinance $SOI 很像 $POET 那一类。 它的市价已经接近账面价值了，我个人看不出太大的下行风险。 上行空间更有限，但我觉得未来一年它还是有机会涨 200%。
英文原文
@Berlinergy @ryansfinance $SOI fits in the $POET club. Trading close to book value, don’t see much downside risk personally. Upside is more limited but I can see it going up 200% over the next year.
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认为大多数人根本不知道 Celestial 及其供应链。
@Akskn7 我觉得 99% 的人甚至都不知道 Celestial 是什么，更别说他们的组件供应商了。 不过他们可能知道 $MRVL，主要是因为 Jim Cramer，但即便那也算比较小众。
英文原文
@Akskn7 I don’t think 99% of people even know what Celestial is let alone their component suppliers. They might know $MRVL because of Jim Cramer though but even that is considered niche.
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列出几只自己认为有 binary upside 的小票，并对各自风险做了简述。
我觉得在这个位置，$IQE 的二元上行空间最大，而且如果成功重组并转向 InP AI 业务，确实有可能涨 5 到 10 倍。 $POET 的下行风险因为现金资产负债表而比较低。我个人以前不太喜欢它……但如果它能在 Celestial 之外再拿下其他头部合作方，我也能看见它的上行空间。 如果 $AXTI 真的把供应链武器化，我能想象它从 30 亿美元变成 100 亿美元以上。否则的话，现在的估值其实还算合理。 $AAOI 更像是这样：他们能做到吗？能，一年涨 4 倍不是没可能。 我们拭目以待，当然每只也都有下行风险，比如 $IQE 的债务。我的 thesis 只是：按 landmark 相比来看，它们在反应炉 / 底层产能上的原始价值，超过了市值。 我最近没说太多，因为现在都在等新闻。
英文原文
$IQE probably has most binary upside at these levels and legitimately could 5-10x upon successful restructuring and conversion toward InP AI segments. $POET has pretty low downside risk due to cash balance sheet. I personally wasn’t a fan… but I see the upside if they can qualify with other leading partners aside from Celestial. $AXTI if they weaponized their supply chain I can see it being $10B+ from $3B. Otherwise current valuations are reasonable . $AAOI is more so. Can they do it? Yes they can for a 4x in a year. We’ll see what happens, there’s obviously downside risks with each too like $IQE debt. My thesis was just their raw value in terms of reactors/underlying capacity relative to landmark outweighs mc. Haven’t said too much since it’s waiting periods for news
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反问 AAOI 直连这些巨头客户还有什么更好的客户可言。
@Jornka329996 $AAOI 直接连着 $ORCL、$MSFT、$AMZN，甚至可能还有 $META，还需要什么新客户？ 这大概已经是他们能拿到的最好客户了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 How is $AAOI direct to $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, and maybe $META needing new clients? Those are probably the best they can get lol
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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调侃对方只盯着 NKE 价值投资，看不到 AI 超级周期。
@TheStockBro 当你只盯着 $NKE 的价值投资，而不是 AI 超级周期时，会觉得这不可能也很正常。
英文原文
@TheStockBro Makes sense to think it’s impossible when you’re tunnel visioned into $NKE value investing instead of AI supercycles
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认为 Nvidia 给 Marvell 20 亿美元投资后，更看好 Celestial 生态。
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA 给 $MRVL 20 亿美元，确实让我对 Celestial 生态里的 $POET 和 $SIVE 更看多了一点。
英文原文
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA handing $2B to $MRVL does make me a bit more bullish on the celestial ecosystem like $POET and $SIVE.
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说自己目前在权益回报上还没达到目标，但更重要的是自己创造价值。
@m1iles 遗憾的是，目前在权益回报上还没到那种程度（虽然流动性差很多）。 所以自己去创造价值其实特别重要！X 目前还只是一个副业。
英文原文
@m1iles Sadly nothing close equity return wise yet (although much less liquid). That’s why it’s extremely valuable to go and generate value yourself! X is still a side hobby.
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继续偏爱激光链条，而不是只看 POET。
@PhotonCap 我以前提过 $POET！不过就我个人而言，我还是更喜欢 $LITE 和 $SIVE 这种激光侧的标的。
英文原文
@PhotonCap I’ve talked about $POET before! But personally I’ve liked the laser side of things more with $LITE and $SIVE
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感叹两人背景相似。
@PhotonCap 兄弟这也太离谱了。 我也上过加州大学伯克利分校，我还有自然类出版物。我们的背景简直像得吓人。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Bruh wtf. I went to UC Berkeley and I have nature publications as well. Our backgrounds are scarily alike
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回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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韩语回复，表示自己现在聚焦 CPO / SiPh，并纠正几项细节。
真的读得很有意思，谢谢你分享！ 你对最近这些事件的理解大多是对的！我最近也非常专注于 $SOI、$TSEM 等包含在 CPO（共同封装光学）/硅光子领域里的方向。 有几处小更正：5 亿到 10 亿美元（$500m - $1B）的规模更像是 Celestial 的事，而不是 $SIVE。不过还是挺有意思，也读得很过瘾。
英文原文
정말 재미있게 읽었습니다. 공유해 주셔서 감사합니다! 최근 이슈들에 대한 내용은 대부분 정확하네요! 저는 요즘 $SOI나 $TSEM 등을 포함한 CPO(공동 패키지 광학)/실리콘 포토닉스 분야에 확실하게 집중하고 있습니다. 몇 가지 사소한 정정을 하자면, 5억~10억 달러($500m - $1B) 규모의 수치는 $SIVE 가 아니라 셀레스티얼(Celestial)에 해당하는 내용인 것 같습니다. 그래도 흥미롭게 잘 읽었습니다.
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感谢对方的支持，并说很高兴和韩国 X 社区交流。
@babybluecream 非常感谢！每次看到提醒都会让我很开心。我也很高兴能有机会和韩国 X 社区的朋友们交流。
英文原文
@babybluecream 정말 감사합니다! 알림이 뜨는 걸 볼 때마다 항상 즐거워요. 그리고 한국 X 커뮤니티 분들과 소통할 수 있는 기회를 주셔서 기쁩니다
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说自己被最近的媒体旧引语带节奏了。
@platochi 被最近那条拿旧引语来带节奏的媒体给坑了。 这是新的那条。
英文原文
@platochi Got trolled by one of the recent media pulling old quotes. This was new one https://t.co/N9JAqyOTkQ
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说大家现在都对不断抄底产生了 PTSD。
@Roseinator85 我觉得现在大家都对那种没完没了抄底已经有 PTSD 了。
英文原文
@Roseinator85 I think everyone has PTSD now from buying the never ending dips.
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说明 AAOI 做光器件的全链路业务，不会在转型中被替代。
$AAOI 会先做激光 -> 设计 -> 组装 -> 再把收发器卖出去。所以它们把整条供应链都包了。 可插拔光器件不会消失，所以他们会填补那一块。 然后在另一边，他们还做 ELSFP（外部光源），所以在 CPO 侧就是激光 -> 设计 -> 封装。 也就是说，这两边他们都做，不会在行业转型里被替代掉。
英文原文
$AAOI does laser -> design -> assembly -> then sells the transceiver. So they have the whole supply chain. Pluggables won't go away so they'll fill that gap. Then on the side, they build ELSFPs (external light sources), so laser -> design -> packaging on the CPO side. So they do both. They don't get replaced in the transition.
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认为去年 NVDA 先把产能拿走了，时间大概是 2024 末或 2025 初。
@LIama002 去年这事其实是在关门后发生的，当时 $NVDA 已经把所有产能都拿走了。 Trendforce 还发过文，说明这事在去年就更早发生了。 也许是 2024 年末，或者 2025 年初？
英文原文
@LIama002 It was behind closed doors last year with $NVDA securing all the capacity. Trendforce published that it happened earlier last year. Maybe late 2024, early 2025? https://t.co/WbwGaQ6Gwm
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说 AAOI 的波动很正常，经历过 AXTI 后更能适应。
@MacadoMP 这对 $AAOI 来说就是正常波动。 你得慢慢习惯它，尤其是如果你以前做过 $AXTI，你对 +25% 到 -20% 这种波动就会比较麻木。
英文原文
@MacadoMP Just your normal volatility for $AAOI. It's something to get used to, especially if you've been in $AXTI before, you're conditioned to be fine with +25% -20% movements.
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只有链接，没有正文。
仅有链接。
英文原文
@2_dang https://t.co/hQsFrIrGJ9
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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表示这是自己最自豪的作品之一。
@semivision_tw 这是我最自豪的作品之一。
英文原文
@semivision_tw This is one of my proudest creations
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分析RPI估值偏低，Forward P/E从20.6x降至9.5x，增长58%，AI代理硬件新机遇或带来结构性需求。
$RPI 就 GAAP 前向预测来看确实看起来有点便宜。 - 2026 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.256 = 20.6倍 - 2027 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.400 = 13.2倍 - 2028 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.553 = 9.5倍 基于个人预测。尤其是当你在同比增长 58%（预期会再次上调，因 OpenClaw 的购买）： 当以 2 倍前向市销率交易时，实际上并没有多少溢价。尤其是在 AI 代理硬件(agentic hardware)领域还有新的 TAM 扩张机会。 下行风险是，OpenClaw 只是短期趋势。但 Jensen 在 GTC 上将其验证为下一个重大趋势。 如果这是结构性需求，而 Raspberry Pi 是消费代理硬件领域的 $NVDA……以约 $1B 市值来看，可能是一个绝佳的机会。
英文原文
$RPI does look sort of cheap for GAAP forward projections. - 2026 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.256 = 20.6x - 2027 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.400 = 13.2x - 2028 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.553 = 9.5x Off personal projections. Especially when you’re growing 58% Y/Y (expect this to beat again due to OpenClaw buying): There’s not really much of a premium when it trades at 2x fwd/sales. Especially when theres new TAM expansion opportunities in the AI agentic hardware space. The downside risk is, OpenClaw is just a short term trend. But Jensen did validate it as the next major trend at GTC. If it is structural demand and Raspberry Pi is the $NVDA for consumer agentic hardware… could be a great opportunity at ~$1B MC.
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说自己仍对 NBIS 被看多这件事有 PTSD。
@0xjawor 我到现在对他当时看多 $NBIS 这件事还有 PTSD。
英文原文
@0xjawor I still have PTSD from when he was bullish on $NBIS
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抱歉 MRVL 持有人。
****。抱歉 $MRVL 的持有人们。
英文原文
****. Sorry $MRVL holders. https://t.co/JMZ16QJRsL
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AEHR获光收发器厂商认证订单，处于类似AAOI早期阶段，面临量产拐点。
$AEHR 从一家领先的光收发器(optical transceiver)公司获得了资格认证订单。 它正处于早期阶段，类似于 $AAOI 正在被主要超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)供应链测试用于光收发器/硅光子学(silicon photonics)阶段。 在可能随时到来的大批量量产拐点(mass volume inflection point)之前。 $AEHR 盘前上涨 12.73%。
英文原文
$AEHR new qualification orders from a leading optical transicever company. It’s in the early $AAOI stage where it’s getting tested by major hyperscaler supply chains for optical transceivers/silicon photonics. Before the mass volume inflection point that may be at any time. $AEHR up 12.73% premarket.
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等财报验证 thesis 后，RPI 现在估值看起来还不错。
@Test126863 是啊……我已经厌倦了所有噪音，所以就等财报来验证我的 thesis。 现在 $RPI 作为一家 fabless AI 硬件公司，大概只交易在 2 倍前瞻销售。
英文原文
@Test126863 Yeah… got tired of all the noise so just waited for earnings to validate my thesis. Now $RPI is trading at roughly 2 fwd p/s as a fabless ai hardware company.
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回顾自己对 RPI 的收入预测比分析师更乐观，结果验证了。
@AscendingLife3 是啊，我当时预计营收增长 55%，而分析师全都在说 14%。 结果 $RPI 最后做到了 58%。
英文原文
@AscendingLife3 Yeah I was projecting 55% revenue growth while analysts were all saying 14%. $RPI ended up hitting 58%.
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认为 SIVE 在低市值下值得给更高溢价。
@glfikk 也许应该给 100-200% 的溢价，因为 $SIVE 的市值实在太低了。
英文原文
@glfikk Maybe 100-200% premium since $SIVE MC is incredibly low.