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肯定其美国优先能源属性，但警告其借散户热度低价稀释股份。
@accounting_ds 是的，作为“美国优先”能源基础设施并与JD Vance交往，这是一个积极的角度。不过正如你提到的，一旦散户投资者感兴趣，他们就会以远低于市值的价格稀释股份，坑害投资者。https://t.co/KZ6VxOHriD
英文原文
@accounting_ds Yep, it's a positive angle that they're America First energy infra, hanging out with JD Vance. Then again as you mentioned, the moment there's retail investor interest, they dilute way below marketcap shaft investors. https://t.co/KZ6VxOHriD
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博主调侃推文中的破折号用法疑似AI生成。
@retrax1678 @accounting_ds @TenXSignalLab 是的，我觉得那两个——破折号——意味着这大概是 ChatGPT 写的，哈哈。
英文原文
@retrax1678 @accounting_ds @TenXSignalLab yeah i think the two — em dashes kind of means it's chatgpt lol
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对比特斯拉FSD与Waymo等技术等级，认为谷歌目前领先。
哈哈，$TSLA 目前感觉像是营销上的“万能灵药(snake oil)”。Waymo ($GOOGL) - L4级自动驾驶；Cruise ($GM) - L4级；Aurora - L4级；Tesla FSD - L2级。$TSLA 目前仍是L2级，仍需人类远程监控每次驾驶，其FSD营销带有“必须时刻手握方向盘”的免责声明，纯属营销噱头。不过，如果仅靠摄像头就能实现，正如你所说，其规模化潜力更大。鉴于埃隆能造出可重复使用火箭，我并不怀疑他的能力。除此之外，$GOOGL 目前在各方面都碾压其他对手。我认为更好的问题是：Aurora + Uber 能否与 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 竞争，而非单独看某家公司。
英文原文
lol $TSLA feels like marketing snake oil currently. Waymo ( $GOOGL ) -Level 4 Cruise ( $GM ) - Level 4 Avride - Level 4 Tesla FSD - Level 2 $TSLA still has humans remotely monitoring every drive since it's level 2 right now and it's just snake oil marketing FSD (with disclaimers that you must be at the wheel lol at all times). If they get it right with just cameras, it has higher scale potential as you mentioned. And I don't really doubt Elon if he can make massive reusable rockets. That aside, $GOOGL is dominating every one of them right now. Think the better question to be asking is if avride + Uber can compete vs $TSLA or $GOOGL, rather than the standalone company.
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警惕OpenAI泡沫，看好Mag7资本支出受益的AI基础设施股。
我对“AI泡沫”的主要担忧是OpenAI及其1万亿美元资本支出(capex)的承诺。这显然是一个泡沫（以及大语言模型LLM的私人估值）。其他大多数方面则不然。 任何直接依赖他们的公司，如$ORCL、$CRWV，鉴于AI模型在技术上已超越GPT，可能会陷入困境。所以简单的做法就是远离它们！ 就我个人而言，ChatGPT 5.1的表现糟糕透顶，我实际上取消了订阅，转而使用Gemini/Claude。Claude Opus 4.5在编码任务上优于Codex。Gemini在图像生成上优于ChatGPT。此类例子不胜枚举。 无论如何，AI将长期存在，任何与Mag7相关的（$GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF），（$MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS），以及连接性如$ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7)都极具前景，因为它们是Mag7自由现金流(fcf)增加资本支出的直接受益者。
英文原文
The main fear I have in the "AI Bubble" is OpenAI and their $1T capex promises. That is a clear bubble (and private valuations of LLMs). Most other things, no. Any company directly reliant to them $ORCL, $CRWV might be in trouble given how AI models leapfrogged GPT. So the simple thing to do is stay away! Personally speaking, ChatGPT5.1 is horrendous and I actually cancelled my subscription to go with Gemini/Claude. Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms Codex in coding tasks. Gemini outperforms ChatGPT in image generation. Can go on and on. Regardless, AI is here to stay, and anything Mag7 related ( $GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF ), ( $MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS), connectivity like $ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7) is extremely promising since they're the direct beneficiaries of increasing capex from mag7 fcf
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TPU/AMD因NVDA产能受限受追捧，若NVDA产能过剩才需担忧竞争逆风。
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
英文原文
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.
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看好$NBIS因Robotaxi子公司潜力被低估，预期市值可达400B。
$NBIS 的核心业务令人惊叹。但更疯狂的是，其子公司在一年内的潜在价值可能超过主营业务。目前市场上没有公开的自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)公司。获取相关敞口的唯一途径是通过 $TSLA 的 Robotaxi 业务和 $GOOGL 的 Waymo。$NBIS 持有 AVride 83% 的股权，估值约 60 亿美元，并与 $UBER（也是投资者）合作以竞争 Waymo。马斯克一直宣传 Robotaxi 是一个万亿美元的市场。如果这家公司不久后市值达到 400 亿美元，我也不会感到惊讶。话虽如此，$NBIS 目前 21 美元的估值简直低得可笑。
英文原文
$NBIS core business is insane. But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo. And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future. That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.
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博主晒图调侃对方入场过早。
@pepemoonboy 我就把这张图留在这里，作为你入场太早的证据 https://t.co/NYlsS8ft2k
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I'll just leave this here as proof you're early https://t.co/NYlsS8ft2k
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质疑电竞脚本可行性，设想Optimus集成Grok 5击败T1。
@Sheep_Esports @riotgames 难道不能用脚本版的困难模式机器人来实现吗？如果 $TSLA/XAi 将 Grok 5 集成到 Optimus 中，并让该团队通过手部/光标操作击败 T1，我会印象深刻。
英文原文
@Sheep_Esports @riotgames Can't it already be done with scripting versions of hard mode bots? I'd be impressed if $TSLA/XAi implemented Grok 5 into like Optimus with hand/cursor movements and that team ended up beating T1.
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机构增持NBIS至近50%，预示其将成下一超大规模云服务商并即将拉升。
我确信机构已经知道 $NBIS 正在蓄势成为下一个超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)。 从13F文件来看，我们的机构持股比例从上季度的38%上升到了本季度的44%。 现在根据彭博终端(Bloomberg terminal)数据，$NBIS 的机构持股比例已达到48.8%-50.42%（鉴于昨日纳入MSCI指数+未来一两周更多资金流入，实际比例可能更高）。 正如我之前在 $HOOD 的案例中所说，对于这类优质公司，机构往往会在迎来大幅拉升前，先积累到55-75%这一“甜蜜点”的持股比例。 机构正在通过暗池(dark pools)买入散户的投降筹码。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler. We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter from 13F filings. Now from Bloomberg terminal data, we're now at 48.8%-50.42% institutional ownership of $NBIS (with likely more after MSCI inclusion yesterday + more inflows the next week or two). As I said before with good companies like $HOOD, institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up. Institutions are buying retail capitulation, but just through dark pools.
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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日元套利交易平仓将推动资金回流，建议做多日经指数。
日本加息看似对日经平均指数不利，但由于美联储正在降息，这将导致2024年重新积累的日元套利交易(Carry Trade)崩溃。因此，在资金回流日本、推动带对冲买入的平仓(Unwind)阶段，我认为做多日经指数是明智的仓位配置。
英文原文
日本の利上げは日経平均にとって一見マイナスに思えますが、米国のFRBが利下げに動いていることもあり、2024年に再び積み上がった円キャリートレードが崩壊する要因になります。 そのため、資金が日本へ還流し、ヘッジを伴った買いが促されるアンワインド局面では、日経をロングするのは賢いポジショニングだと私も考えます。
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借鉴FTX投资组合经验，探讨核心业务搭配高增长子公司的科技巨头成长路径。
这是一个合理的评论，因为很多人对FTX这个词有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，且存在大量负面联想。（我并非试图制造这种联想）。 然而，尽管他们存在会计欺诈，他们在现代任何初创企业中做对了一件事，即投资组合公司的增长/投资。当散户进行长期投资时，我们可以从中吸取一些教训。 在过去4年中，我们看到了这些回报（1000%+）的成果，这正是我发布的内容。 核心观点是，如果你拥有一家像Google Search（例如 $NBIS）这样合法的运营业务，并将其与像YouTube一样的超扩展子公司（例如Avride, Clickhouse）相结合，那就是成为下一个科技巨头的完美组合。
英文原文
That's a fair comment since a lot of people have PTSD with the word FTX and there's a lot of negative associations. (which im not trying to make). However, despite their accounting fraud, they did one thing right out any other startup in the modern era, which was portfolio company growth/investments. And there's some lessons we can take from that when retail does long term investors. We got to see the fruits of those returns (1000%+), in the past 4 years, which was what I posted about. The core point was that if you had a legitmate operational business like Google Search (eg. $NBIS) , and paired it along with Youtube-like hyper scaling subsidiaries (eg. Avride, Clickhouse), thats the perfect mix to becoming the next tech giant.
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分析超大规模云厂商数据中心模式差异及潜在合作逻辑
我不会像某些特定的 $BMNR 或 $IREN 投资者那样盲目吹捧，认为街上的绿灯就意味着对公司利好。所以我倾向于认为这只是巧合。因为看起来 $AMZN、$GOOGL 倾向于偏好数据中心托管(Colo)模式（因为他们可以插入自己的 TPU、未来的 Trainium 芯片），而 $MSFT、$META（以及 99.9% 使用 $NVDA 且没有现成定制芯片的 AI 公司）则偏好 $NBIS、$IREN 类型的模式。所以 $AMZN 宣布在印第安纳州为其 AWS 数据中心部门投资 150 亿美元。但关键要注意的是，他们此前在那里已经花费了 313 亿美元，所以这并不算全新投入。你可能看到了 $NBIS 正在印第安纳波利斯附近建设 1000 多英亩的绿地数据中心。这只是一个有利于建设的区域，可能并非针对合作伙伴关系或像 Anthropic（最近承诺 400 亿美元资本支出）那样的另一笔超大规模云厂商交易。说实话，我现在可能更相信 Anthropic 的资本支出承诺而不是 OpenAI。话虽如此，也许如果 $AMZN 耗尽容量并达到与 $NVDA 的最大采购订单上限（因为他们正在插入自己的 $CIFR 芯片），他们可能会转而使用 Nebius。
英文原文
I'm not going to be a blind shill like some specific $BMNR or $IREN investors that can say a green light on the street means bullish for the company. So I would lean coincidental. Since it looks like $AMZN, $GOOGL tends to favor colo models (since they can plug in their own TPUs, Trainium chips in the future) while $MSFT, $META (and 99.9% of AI companies that use $NVDA and don't have custom chips readily built out) prefer $NBIS, $IREN type models. So $AMZN announced they're investing $15B in Indiana for their AWS DC segment. But key thing to note is they've already spent $31.3B there before so it's not exactly new. You probably saw how $NBIS is doing a 1000+ acre greenfield DC near Indianapolis. It's just a favorable area for buildout, probably not directed at a partnership and another hyperscaler deal like Antrhopic (who committed $40B in capex spend recently). I'd probably trust Antrophic more than OpenAI right now with capex spend lol. That being said, maybe if $AMZN runs out of capacity and hits max purchase order with $NVDA (since they're plugging in their own chips with $CIFR), they would use Nebius instead.
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对比NBIS的爆发式增长与CIFR的稳健长期价值。
从我在AI增长板块的观察来看，是的，$NBIS 极其罕见，因为它前身是 Yandex。作为背景，这基本上相当于俄罗斯的百度/中国或谷歌/美国，他们将 Avride 等子公司剥离至 Nebius。至于 $CRWV 等其他公司，它们对 Monolith AI 等收购案更多是为了补充现有核心业务，而非像 $NBIS 那样实现三位数的独立同比增长。而收购 Weights and Bias 花费了17亿美元（据我了解其增长并不快）。至于其他数据中心/矿企，不幸的是比特币增长也不快，但长期来看防御性很强。因此，例如 $CIFR 通过其资产负债表的增长速度会慢得多。但从长期来看，作为股东持有它非常稳健，符合其下行风险较低的数据中心(colocation)模式和较慢的收入爬坡模型。如果你想一年内从0做到2000亿，$NBIS 是做法；如果你想用5年做到，$CIFR 是选择。
英文原文
From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before. For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius. For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers) As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower. But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model. If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.
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NBIS资金充裕，建议保留高增长子公司并寻求并购以超越当前市值。
$NBIS 应该拥有足够的资金来支持建设，包括 48 亿美元现金储备加上 25 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资，以及从收入合同中获得的任何自由现金流(FCF)都将重新投入建设。 我认为 Nebius 管理层指的是如果出现极端的信贷紧缩，他们将出售投资组合中的公司，这在最后关头是合理的。 但他们处于健康的状态。如果我是他们，我会让它们继续增长，并寻找更多的并购(M&A)，就像 FTX 在加密领域所做的那样，或者 Meta 早期在核心运营业务之外对社交网络的投资，以建立更稳固的防御。 如果 Avride 成为一家 250 亿美元的企业，或者 Clickhouse 成为一家 800 亿美元的企业（鉴于它们的增长轨迹，这两种情况都非常可能），这些单独的业务价值将超过当前的市值。
英文原文
$NBIS should have enough to fund buildout through $4.8B cash stack plus $2.5B ATM + any fcf they get from revenue contracts gets put back into buildout. I think Nebius management were referring to if there was extreme credit tightening, they would sell off portfolio companies, which would make sense in a last ditch scenario. But they're in a healthy spot. If I were them I would let them all keep growing, and look for more M&As like what FTX did in the crypto sector, Meta early stage with social media networks alongside their core operational business for more defensibly. In the event Avride becomes a $25B business or Clickhouse becomes a $80B business (which are both extremely plausible scenarios given their growth trajectories), those individual stacks would be worth more than the current market cap.
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质疑某两家公司仅为NBIS用户而非被投企业
@Dream5728363541 那两家公司难道只是 $NBIS 的用户，而不是其投资组合中的被投企业吗？
英文原文
@Dream5728363541 Aren’t those two just users of $NBIS, not portfolio company investments?
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博主回复称暂无确切标的，仅分享最接近的参考链接。
@OperationATM 我还没有，但这已经是我目前最接近的了 https://t.co/LDgBku35dG
英文原文
@OperationATM I don’t yet but this is the closest thing I have https://t.co/LDgBku35dG
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认为市场低估了$NBIS及其子公司Avride的超大规模扩张潜力。
我觉得市场也错过了 $NBIS 的故事。Jim Cramer 就是一个典型的例子。 我认为我们只是处于早期阶段，但最高的回报往往来自于此。尤其是当市场折价子公司，且未将其随核心业务超大规模扩张(Hyperscaling)的因素计入定价时。 存在一种遥远的可能性，即其中一家子公司（Avride）的规模会超过主营业务。
英文原文
I sort of think the market missed the $NBIS story too. Jim Cramer for one is the perfect example. Think we're just early but that's where the highest returns come from. Especially when the market discounts subsidiaries and doesn't price in that they're hyperscaling along the core business. There's a distant possibility where one of them (Avride), becomes larger than the main business.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.
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指出LLM初始错误时，集成方法无法纠正自信的错误答案。
@platochi 我关注到了！我上面漏掉的另一点是，没有任何大语言模型(LLM)能在一开始就给出正确答案（即使你个人有时能解释其中的细微差别）。 因此，如果它们都自信地给出了错误答案，采用顾问/集成(ensemble)式的方法也无济于事。
英文原文
@platochi I’m tuned in! Another point i missed above was that no LLM gets it right in the first place (even if you personally explain the nuances sometimes). So having a counsel/ensemble type approach wouldn’t do anything if they all get it confidently wrong
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构建金融数据接入LLM成本高昂，散户难以获得机构级Alpha生成能力。
嗯，这种方法需要花费数百万美元来构建定制化的金融数据管道（Financial Data Pipelines）接入到大语言模型（LLM）中（我不想花这笔钱）。 这大概是对 @demishassabis、@sama、@elonmusk、@DarioAmodei、@ylecun、@arthurmensch、@aidangomez 或者拥有资源的初创公司来说的一个挑战。 这绝对是一个价值十亿美元的问题：如何让散户也能通过提示词（Prompt）获得与 Jane Street 算法同等的阿尔法（Alpha）生成能力。 我可以开源一个轻量级版本，就像上面的 LLM 委员会那样，仅基于我个人的领域特定判断，但肯定无法做到深入。有趣的事实是，$NVDA 过去曾试图招募我领导他们的人工智能团队之一，所以也许如果我现在没忙于其他事情的话……
英文原文
Uh this approach would cost millions into building custom financial data pipelines into the LLM (which I don't want to spend). Prob a challenge for @demishassabis, @sama, @elonmusk, @DarioAmodei, @ylecun, @arthurmensch, @aidangomez or a startup with the resources. Definitely a billion dollar question for alpha generation to make the same Jane Street algorithm capability available to retail to prompt. I could open source a lightweight version like the LLM council above just based on my own domain-specific judgment, but won't be anywhere close to being in-depth. Fun fact, $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead one of their AI teams in the past so mybe if i wasn't working on other things right now
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分析11月市场下跌原因：政府停摆、Binance清算、套利交易解除等多因素叠加
谢谢！我想在发帖前先了解一下情况，因为我最初以为是跟降息预期有关、政府停摆导致私人系统流动性被抽走，或者可能是某种算法因素。 政府停摆确实起了很大作用，加上25个基点的降息，但它们不应该导致股票/加密货币下跌30%以上（且重新开放后几乎没有反弹），因为美联储并没有收紧政策，我们刚经历了2次降息，而且很多公司的基本面正在改善。 Binance清算只是加密货币最初的个殊催化剂，但美联储降息而日本加息导致套利交易在流动性重新加载中解除，同时叠加其他并发因素，这可能就是我们现在在这里的原因。
英文原文
Thanks! I wanted to get a grasp of the situation before posting, since originally i was thinking it was it had something to do with rate cut odds, aftermath of gov shutdown draining some private system liquidity, or maybe something algorithmic initially. Gov shutdown does play a large role + .25 bps but they shouldn’t affect stocks/crypto 30%+ (and little recovery after reopening) since the fed isn’t tightening, we just got 2 rate cuts, and fundamentals of a lot of companies are improving. Binance liquidation was just the initial idiosyncratic catalysts fr crypto but fed cutting while Japan hikes causes carry trade unwind from the reload amid the other concurrent factors is prob why we’re here now.
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博主回复网友，称赞其想法不错。
@sak864208 好主意
英文原文
@sak864208 Good idea
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高贝塔股常先于指数下跌，是市场风向标。
历史上确实如此，今年也不例外。在2月至4月期间，我们曾看到高贝塔值(高波动性)股票如 $HOOD 大幅回调，成长股及前沿指数也出现大幅下跌。 这并非总是如此，但指数通常最后才发生变动，而成长股/高贝塔值股票通常是煤矿中的金丝雀(市场风向标)。
英文原文
So it actually happened like that historically, and this year too. Before we saw high beta like $HOOD sell off back from Feb to April, and growth stocks frontran index on the massive drop. This isn’t always the case but indexes are usually last to move and growth/high beta stocks are usually a good canary in the coal mine.
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分析套利交易平仓规模及宏观因素对高贝塔资产的影响
我对2024年套利交易平仓(carry trade unwind)的尸检报告进行了更深入的分析，其中快速资金（对冲基金、自营交易台）的短期资本约为2000亿至3000多亿美元（约占5000亿总额的40-60%左右）。然而，过去一年内这些敞口可能已重新建立，因此类似但规模较小的平仓可能再次发生。日本加息+美联储降息导致已重新建立的套利交易出现平仓。当你提到加密货币溢出到高贝塔(high beta)股票时，如果没有宏观逆风，币安清算导致的比特币跌破9万美元很可能已被买回至10万美元（尤其是考虑到三次降息），所以情况并非如此。
英文原文
So had a deeper breakdown on the 2024 autopsy report from carry trade unwind but figure was ~$200B – $300B+ish in fast money (hedge funds, prop desks) short term capital (which is ~40-60ish of total of $500B) However it's likely been reloaded in terms of exposure in the past year so a similar but less amount might be unwinding again. Japan hiking rates + Fed cutting leads to that carry trade unwind in terms of what got reloaded, When you mention crypto spilling into high beta stocks, if there weren't any macro headwinds, the Bitcoin drop sub $90k from binance liqudations probably would have been bought up to $100k already (esp with 3x rate cut) so that's probably not the case.
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博主分享偶遇皮卡丘的趣事以安慰粉丝。
@soulbiri1 如果这能让你感觉好受些，我上个月在那里看到了一只胖皮卡丘。https://t.co/svjUkrGf4u
英文原文
@soulbiri1 If it makes you feel any better, I saw this fat Pikachu there the other month. https://t.co/svjUkrGf4u
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调侃博主阅读速度之快，比日元套利交易规模更神秘。
@itsthesquonky 另外，@Neat_Lama 如何在前 10 秒内阅读这些回复，这比日元套利交易(Yen carry trade)的规模更是一个神秘的问题。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky also how does @Neat_Lama read these responses in the first 10 seconds is the more mysterious question compared to the size of the Yen carry trade.
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分析2024年表外去杠杆规模，认为当前正重新加杠杆而非触及结构性资金。
大多数事情发生在表外，所以我们无从知晓。 回到2024年，去杠杆(unwind)规模约为2000亿至3000亿美元以上。包括140亿美元期货（CFTC及BIS数据）、1600亿美元对冲基金外汇远期合约（来源：BIS公报第90期），以及约1000亿美元（假设投机性的非银行金融机构(NBFI)贷款部分）。 2万亿美元以上来自GPIF（1.6万亿美元）等结构性资金，1万亿美元以上来自银行贷款等。 2024年已经清理了大量去杠杆，但未触及结构性部分。 但我的看法是，我们很可能自2024年以来正在重新加杠杆(reload)，并看到那约2000亿美元的去杠杆规模再次被清理，而非触及结构性资金。
英文原文
Most things happen off the books so we won't know. So back in 2024 unwind was about $200B – $300B+. $14 Billion in futures (CFTC & BIS data), $160 Billion from Hedge Fund FX Forwards, Source: (BIS Bulletin #90), + ~$100B (Portion of NBFI loans assumed speculative). $2T+ is structural money from GPIF ($1.6T), $1T+ from Bank lending, etc. 2024 cleared a lot of the unwind already but didn't touch the structural part. But my take is that we've likely seeing a reload since 2024 and seeing that ~$200B-ish figure be cleared out again rather than touching structural money.
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博主复盘整体盈利，详述NBIS、META等持仓盈亏及FLY长期逻辑。
总体来看我盈利颇丰。我刚才指的是上个月，当时像 $NBIS 这样的许多收益都被抹平了。 目前我在 $NBIS 上的持仓成本平均在 90 多美元，这让我感到意外。 $META 在最近几次看涨期权（option calls）交易中的成本均价为 640 美元，但由于我做了看涨期权，该头寸目前亏损六位数。 但我曾在 3000 美元时买入 $BTC，在 14 美元左右买入 $RKLB，在 20 美元时买入 $HOOD。 关于 $FLY，正如我之前的论点所述，这是基于 2026/2027 年中型有效载荷（medium-lift payloads）催化剂的投资。无论短期股价如何波动，都不会改变中型载荷是否研发成功的事实。 如果一年后他们最终未能研发出中型载荷且股价崩盘，你可以嘲笑我。
英文原文
Overall I'm up a lot. I was just referring to this past month where many of my gains like $NBIS were wiped out. I'm below cost average right now on $NBIS in the $90s, which was surprising. $META was $640 cost average on recent calls but I'm down 6 figures on that position since I did option calls. But I bought stuff like $BTC at $3k, $RKLB around $14 and $HOOD at $20. On $FLY as I said before in my thesis, it was a 2026/2027 catalyst play on medium-lift payloads. Whatever the stock price short term doesn't really change whether medium-lift developed. You can laugh at it if in a year if they end up failing to develop medium lift and stock price craters.