· 供应链分析
我对2024年套利交易平仓(carry trade unwind)的尸检报告进行了更深入的分析，其中快速资金（对冲基金、自营交易台）的短期资本约为2000亿至3000多亿美元（约占5000亿总额的40-60%左右）。然而，过去一年内这些敞口可能已重新建立，因此类似但规模较小的平仓可能再次发生。日本加息+美联储降息导致已重新建立的套利交易出现平仓。当你提到加密货币溢出到高贝塔(high beta)股票时，如果没有宏观逆风，币安清算导致的比特币跌破9万美元很可能已被买回至10万美元（尤其是考虑到三次降息），所以情况并非如此。
So had a deeper breakdown on the 2024 autopsy report from carry trade unwind but figure was ~$200B – $300B+ish in fast money (hedge funds, prop desks) short term capital (which is ~40-60ish of total of $500B) However it's likely been reloaded in terms of exposure in the past year so a similar but less amount might be unwinding again. Japan hiking rates + Fed cutting leads to that carry trade unwind in terms of what got reloaded, When you mention crypto spilling into high beta stocks, if there weren't any macro headwinds, the Bitcoin drop sub $90k from binance liqudations probably would have been bought up to $100k already (esp with 3x rate cut) so that's probably not the case.