· 供应链分析

分析11月市场下跌原因:政府停摆、Binance清算、套利交易解除等多因素叠加

中文翻译

谢谢!我想在发帖前先了解一下情况,因为我最初以为是跟降息预期有关、政府停摆导致私人系统流动性被抽走,或者可能是某种算法因素。 政府停摆确实起了很大作用,加上25个基点的降息,但它们不应该导致股票/加密货币下跌30%以上(且重新开放后几乎没有反弹),因为美联储并没有收紧政策,我们刚经历了2次降息,而且很多公司的基本面正在改善。 Binance清算只是加密货币最初的个殊催化剂,但美联储降息而日本加息导致套利交易在流动性重新加载中解除,同时叠加其他并发因素,这可能就是我们现在在这里的原因。

英文原文

Thanks! I wanted to get a grasp of the situation before posting, since originally i was thinking it was it had something to do with rate cut odds, aftermath of gov shutdown draining some private system liquidity, or maybe something algorithmic initially. Gov shutdown does play a large role + .25 bps but they shouldn’t affect stocks/crypto 30%+ (and little recovery after reopening) since the fed isn’t tightening, we just got 2 rate cuts, and fundamentals of a lot of companies are improving. Binance liquidation was just the initial idiosyncratic catalysts fr crypto but fed cutting while Japan hikes causes carry trade unwind from the reload amid the other concurrent factors is prob why we’re here now.

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